RUN: SWIT004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT161E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT161E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 585 1 PrŽs des Champs VS WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 585 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1220 4608-711 1880 1979 - 585 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 18 585092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1939 1939 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 585011 1905 1979 75 1.901 0.993 -0.038 1.781 0.297 0.816 2 585012 1906 1979 74 2.353 1.559 0.810 3.331 0.334 0.812 3 585021 1901 1979 79 1.563 1.066 1.372 4.549 0.328 0.850 4 585022 1900 1979 80 1.998 1.104 0.785 2.701 0.311 0.828 5 585031 1913 1979 67 1.886 0.928 0.959 3.004 0.232 0.827 6 585032 1906 1979 74 1.906 0.801 0.611 2.694 0.287 0.695 7 585041 1903 1979 77 2.476 1.723 0.934 2.739 0.302 0.872 8 585042 1904 1979 76 2.208 1.513 0.763 2.343 0.290 0.866 9 585051 1906 1979 74 1.601 0.750 1.097 4.431 0.373 0.610 10 585052 1908 1979 72 1.495 0.707 1.549 5.779 0.336 0.636 11 585061 1909 1979 71 1.736 0.965 0.872 2.776 0.300 0.806 12 585062 1911 1979 69 1.936 0.766 0.914 3.784 0.304 0.635 13 585071 1905 1979 75 2.320 0.910 0.214 3.232 0.297 0.627 14 585072 1918 1979 62 3.320 1.377 0.681 3.489 0.291 0.619 15 585081 1913 1979 67 3.002 1.265 0.424 2.774 0.225 0.826 16 585082 1911 1979 69 2.802 1.251 0.404 3.063 0.222 0.787 17 585091 1906 1979 74 2.153 0.994 0.651 2.527 0.331 0.661 18 585092 1897 1979 83 2.029 0.918 0.636 3.350 0.300 0.645 19 585101 1894 1979 86 2.005 0.925 0.473 2.818 0.327 0.643 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 585102 1880 1979 100 2.041 0.948 1.025 4.929 0.306 0.680 21 585111 1894 1979 86 2.188 0.950 0.428 2.878 0.278 0.745 22 585112 1884 1979 96 2.038 0.826 0.568 3.430 0.266 0.710 23 585121 1920 1979 60 2.410 0.800 1.043 4.299 0.186 0.725 24 585122 1924 1979 56 2.826 0.626 0.528 3.192 0.149 0.620 25 585131 1911 1979 69 1.927 0.854 0.747 2.828 0.298 0.726 26 585132 1911 1979 69 1.819 0.652 1.250 5.264 0.273 0.636 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1880 TO 1979 100 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 75 2.151 1.007 0.758 3.384 0.286 0.727 STANDARD DEVIATION 9 0.445 0.284 0.354 0.955 0.049 0.090 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 74 2.033 0.938 0.755 3.128 0.298 0.718 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 10 0.452 0.302 0.431 1.010 0.037 0.180 MINIMUM VALUE 56 1.495 0.626 -0.038 1.781 0.149 0.610 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 1.901 0.801 0.528 2.774 0.273 0.636 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 79 2.353 1.104 0.959 3.784 0.311 0.816 MAXIMUM VALUE 100 3.320 1.723 1.549 5.779 0.373 0.872 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.477 0.254 0.014 -0.436 2.166 -0.130 0.917 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.130 SERIES 585091 AND 585122 56 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.917 SERIES 585041 AND 585042 76 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 69.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 15. 136. 300. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.360 0.427 0.470 0.399 0.495 0.455 0.527 SDEV 0.433 0.268 0.193 0.349 0.336 0.262 0.263 SERR 0.112 0.023 0.011 0.019 0.019 0.015 0.015 EPS 0.903 0.947 0.958 0.945 0.962 0.956 0.967 NSS 16.6 23.9 25.8 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1880 1979 100 2.134 0.852 0.936 4.081 0.231 0.760 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.088 0.032 0.616 49 51 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.49 0.57 1.02 1.26 1.83 5.73 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 74. 10. 56. 69. 79. 100. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.753 0.572 0.426 0.336 0.287 0.329 0.280 0.261 0.162 0.111 PACF 0.753 0.012 -0.019 0.044 0.052 0.202 -0.120 0.057 -0.159 0.043 95% C.L. 0.200 0.292 0.334 0.355 0.367 0.376 0.388 0.396 0.402 0.405 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.571 0.756 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 585011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01321422 2.40307379 2 585012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01537964 2.92930388 3 585021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02638632 2.61874390 4 585022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00853598 2.34333229 5 585031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03511852 3.07970142 6 585032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01582362 2.49919653 7 585041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03406015 3.80393028 8 585042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03560670 3.57888412 9 585051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01055165 1.99676788 10 585052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01327979 1.97929573 11 585061 1 3.32520986 0.03107794 0.00000000 0.41600785 12 585062 1 2.04394555 0.04627368 0.00000000 1.33630455 13 585071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00265263 2.21946669 14 585072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01566040 2.82653618 15 585081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04635964 4.57816839 16 585082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05160943 4.60821390 17 585091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02279585 3.00741196 18 585092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02509240 3.08903337 19 585101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00183160 1.92497671 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 585102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01155073 2.62421203 21 585111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02414255 3.23868942 22 585112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02109407 3.06066656 23 585121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01260934 2.79475141 24 585122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00241969 2.89467525 25 585131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03131933 3.02284312 26 585132 1 1.75625014 0.11331001 0.00000000 1.60649538 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 585011 1905 1979 75 0.992 0.505 0.062 1.903 0.293 0.797 2 585012 1906 1979 74 0.992 0.668 1.132 4.196 0.328 0.803 3 585021 1901 1979 79 0.964 0.477 0.820 3.271 0.325 0.710 4 585022 1900 1979 80 0.998 0.525 0.608 2.537 0.307 0.788 5 585031 1913 1979 67 1.008 0.299 -0.081 2.860 0.230 0.566 6 585032 1906 1979 74 0.997 0.344 -0.137 2.517 0.283 0.551 7 585041 1903 1979 77 0.972 0.530 0.556 2.610 0.297 0.799 8 585042 1904 1979 76 0.964 0.492 0.414 2.253 0.284 0.746 9 585051 1906 1979 74 0.998 0.413 0.500 3.677 0.368 0.504 10 585052 1908 1979 72 0.998 0.401 0.982 4.730 0.331 0.529 11 585061 1909 1979 71 1.001 0.320 0.582 5.599 0.296 0.357 12 585062 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.286 -0.060 3.473 0.299 0.271 13 585071 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.393 0.235 3.205 0.293 0.618 14 585072 1918 1979 62 0.998 0.405 0.748 3.744 0.286 0.586 15 585081 1913 1979 67 0.996 0.303 0.248 2.655 0.220 0.645 16 585082 1911 1979 69 0.993 0.234 -0.294 4.216 0.219 0.378 17 585091 1906 1979 74 1.000 0.388 0.235 1.990 0.327 0.545 18 585092 1897 1979 83 0.993 0.336 1.086 6.817 0.300 0.382 19 585101 1894 1979 86 1.000 0.457 0.423 2.773 0.324 0.627 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 585102 1880 1979 100 0.998 0.411 0.435 3.522 0.302 0.610 21 585111 1894 1979 86 0.987 0.318 0.363 3.439 0.274 0.540 22 585112 1884 1979 96 0.995 0.270 -0.043 2.863 0.262 0.416 23 585121 1920 1979 60 0.999 0.318 1.247 5.073 0.181 0.694 24 585122 1924 1979 56 1.000 0.221 0.485 3.155 0.146 0.611 25 585131 1911 1979 69 1.006 0.278 -0.627 3.260 0.294 0.311 26 585132 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.282 -0.008 2.971 0.269 0.398 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 75 0.994 0.380 0.381 3.435 0.282 0.569 STANDARD DEVIATION 9 0.011 0.107 0.460 1.133 0.049 0.158 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 74 0.998 0.366 0.419 3.232 0.293 0.576 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 10 0.007 0.158 0.616 1.089 0.037 0.278 MINIMUM VALUE 56 0.964 0.221 -0.627 1.903 0.146 0.271 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 0.993 0.299 -0.008 2.655 0.269 0.416 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.457 0.608 3.744 0.307 0.694 MAXIMUM VALUE 100 1.008 0.668 1.247 6.817 0.368 0.803 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 585011 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 585012 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 585021 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 585022 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 585031 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 585032 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 585041 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 585042 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 585051 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 585052 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 585061 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 585062 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 585071 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 585072 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 585081 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 585082 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 585091 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 585092 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 585101 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 585102 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 585111 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 585112 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 585121 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 585122 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 585131 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 585132 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 585011 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.435 2.073 10.445 0.294 0.518 2 585012 1906 1979 74 1.051 0.857 5.806 40.318 0.335 0.328 3 585021 1901 1979 79 0.991 0.412 0.880 3.961 0.326 0.478 4 585022 1900 1979 80 0.991 0.399 0.504 3.947 0.306 0.532 5 585031 1913 1979 67 0.997 0.276 -0.090 3.746 0.229 0.521 6 585032 1906 1979 74 0.992 0.311 0.008 2.939 0.285 0.443 7 585041 1903 1979 77 0.972 0.335 0.234 3.155 0.292 0.502 8 585042 1904 1979 76 0.979 0.335 -0.089 2.700 0.286 0.496 9 585051 1906 1979 74 0.993 0.372 0.587 4.821 0.370 0.382 10 585052 1908 1979 72 0.995 0.389 1.059 5.053 0.331 0.494 11 585061 1909 1979 71 0.997 0.293 0.318 6.007 0.297 0.299 12 585062 1911 1979 69 0.998 0.266 -0.298 3.762 0.298 0.181 13 585071 1905 1979 75 0.989 0.315 -0.263 2.944 0.293 0.378 14 585072 1918 1979 62 0.995 0.321 0.830 5.037 0.288 0.274 15 585081 1913 1979 67 0.994 0.275 0.306 2.897 0.219 0.516 16 585082 1911 1979 69 0.998 0.222 -0.296 4.064 0.220 0.269 17 585091 1906 1979 74 0.990 0.335 0.092 2.344 0.327 0.392 18 585092 1897 1979 83 0.998 0.315 0.640 5.079 0.299 0.322 19 585101 1894 1979 86 0.983 0.303 0.667 3.512 0.321 0.200 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 585102 1880 1979 100 0.987 0.363 0.688 4.251 0.302 0.480 21 585111 1894 1979 86 0.998 0.257 -0.170 3.633 0.272 0.268 22 585112 1884 1979 96 0.998 0.254 -0.084 3.038 0.263 0.317 23 585121 1920 1979 60 0.996 0.247 0.710 2.959 0.181 0.502 24 585122 1924 1979 56 0.994 0.160 0.244 3.506 0.148 0.307 25 585131 1911 1979 69 0.999 0.264 -0.830 3.695 0.293 0.261 26 585132 1911 1979 69 0.999 0.275 0.008 2.886 0.270 0.348 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 75 0.995 0.330 0.521 5.411 0.282 0.385 STANDARD DEVIATION 9 0.013 0.124 1.221 7.293 0.049 0.111 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 74 0.995 0.313 0.275 3.720 0.293 0.380 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 10 0.007 0.097 0.778 1.862 0.036 0.197 MINIMUM VALUE 56 0.972 0.160 -0.830 2.344 0.148 0.181 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 0.991 0.266 -0.089 2.959 0.270 0.299 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 79 0.998 0.363 0.688 4.821 0.306 0.496 MAXIMUM VALUE 100 1.051 0.857 5.806 40.318 0.370 0.532 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.426 0.187 0.010 -0.359 2.533 -0.122 0.834 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.122 SERIES 585101 AND 585121 60 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.834 SERIES 585051 AND 585052 72 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 69.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 15. 136. 300. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.236 0.460 0.488 0.442 0.480 0.356 0.504 SDEV 0.414 0.270 0.179 0.268 0.285 0.259 0.230 SERR 0.107 0.023 0.010 0.015 0.016 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.837 0.953 0.961 0.954 0.960 0.935 0.964 NSS 16.6 23.9 25.8 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1880 1979 100 0.994 0.248 0.232 4.344 0.232 0.416 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.238 0.100 0.123 25 75 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.45 1.03 1.08 1.54 33.56 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.10 0.00 0.88 0.98 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.412 0.153 -0.082 -0.111 -0.180 -0.065 -0.166 0.038 -0.054 -0.015 PACF 0.412 -0.021 -0.166 -0.020 -0.122 0.057 -0.187 0.169 -0.153 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.200 0.232 0.236 0.237 0.239 0.244 0.245 0.249 0.249 0.250 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.174 0.417 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.324 0.053 -0.154 -0.150 -0.246 -0.241 -0.362 -0.017 0.023 0.078 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.324 2 0.343 -0.059 3 0.333 0.000 -0.171 4 0.325 0.000 -0.155 -0.050 5 0.314 -0.031 -0.155 0.014 -0.200 6 0.284 -0.029 -0.179 0.010 -0.151 -0.155 7 0.233 -0.079 -0.175 -0.049 -0.161 -0.061 -0.331 8 0.271 -0.072 -0.157 -0.044 -0.140 -0.052 -0.357 0.115 9 0.286 -0.119 -0.164 -0.062 -0.146 -0.073 -0.367 0.151 -0.133 10 0.272 -0.103 -0.202 -0.070 -0.161 -0.079 -0.384 0.139 -0.103 -0.105 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 776.06 766.95 768.60 767.62 769.37 767.30 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 766.88 757.30 757.96 758.19 759.07 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.324 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 10.51 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 111.75 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.324 0.105 0.034 0.011 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 585011 1 0.398 0.621 2 585012 1 0.283 0.509 3 585021 1 0.288 0.514 4 585022 1 0.378 0.595 5 585031 1 0.281 0.523 6 585032 1 0.214 0.460 7 585041 1 0.263 0.512 8 585042 1 0.264 0.503 9 585051 1 0.178 0.382 10 585052 1 0.261 0.495 11 585061 1 0.094 0.302 12 585062 1 0.038 0.182 13 585071 1 0.154 0.392 14 585072 1 0.096 0.303 15 585081 1 0.299 0.544 16 585082 1 0.111 0.277 17 585091 1 0.159 0.394 18 585092 1 0.105 0.323 19 585101 1 0.084 0.200 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 585102 1 0.239 0.488 21 585111 1 0.077 0.270 22 585112 1 0.102 0.319 23 585121 1 0.263 0.509 24 585122 1 0.101 0.312 25 585131 1 0.075 0.267 26 585132 1 0.132 0.359 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.190 0.406 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.101 0.123 MEDIAN 1 0.169 0.393 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.164 0.206 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.038 0.182 LOWER HINGE 1 0.101 0.303 UPPER HINGE 1 0.264 0.509 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.398 0.621 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 585011 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.340 1.523 7.265 0.327 0.179 2 585012 1906 1979 74 1.000 0.737 6.255 44.172 0.378 0.239 3 585021 1901 1979 79 1.000 0.353 0.715 4.098 0.352 0.119 4 585022 1900 1979 80 1.000 0.317 0.530 3.986 0.343 0.127 5 585031 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.235 0.213 3.756 0.267 0.053 6 585032 1906 1979 74 1.000 0.276 -0.033 2.965 0.334 0.041 7 585041 1903 1979 77 1.000 0.288 0.383 4.196 0.328 -0.012 8 585042 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.290 -0.102 3.180 0.340 -0.057 9 585051 1906 1979 74 1.000 0.343 0.462 4.324 0.406 0.072 10 585052 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.338 0.964 5.902 0.387 0.071 11 585061 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.280 0.062 5.454 0.325 0.019 12 585062 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.262 -0.287 3.876 0.318 -0.013 13 585071 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.289 -0.310 3.080 0.339 0.000 14 585072 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.303 0.782 4.969 0.325 -0.044 15 585081 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.230 0.209 2.702 0.246 0.062 16 585082 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.213 -0.152 3.732 0.234 0.058 17 585091 1906 1979 74 1.000 0.308 0.005 2.803 0.369 0.027 18 585092 1897 1979 83 1.000 0.298 0.746 5.199 0.331 -0.008 19 585101 1894 1979 86 1.000 0.296 0.657 3.747 0.353 -0.039 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 585102 1880 1979 100 1.000 0.316 0.793 3.711 0.358 -0.014 21 585111 1894 1979 86 1.000 0.247 -0.192 3.643 0.302 -0.015 22 585112 1884 1979 96 1.000 0.241 -0.030 2.881 0.291 -0.005 23 585121 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.212 1.088 4.050 0.215 0.031 24 585122 1924 1979 56 1.000 0.152 0.098 3.750 0.169 -0.020 25 585131 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.254 -0.711 3.264 0.312 0.012 26 585132 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.256 -0.148 2.588 0.296 0.016 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 75 1.000 0.295 0.520 5.511 0.317 0.035 STANDARD DEVIATION 9 0.000 0.102 1.277 7.958 0.054 0.069 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 74 1.000 0.288 0.211 3.753 0.327 0.018 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 10 0.000 0.069 0.848 1.144 0.056 0.075 MINIMUM VALUE 56 1.000 0.152 -0.711 2.588 0.169 -0.057 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.247 -0.102 3.180 0.296 -0.013 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.316 0.746 4.324 0.352 0.062 MAXIMUM VALUE 100 1.000 0.737 6.255 44.172 0.406 0.239 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.467 0.160 0.009 -0.450 2.716 -0.026 0.855 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.026 SERIES 585101 AND 585121 60 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.855 SERIES 585051 AND 585052 72 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 69.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 15. 136. 300. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.309 0.444 0.440 0.527 0.580 0.486 0.547 SDEV 0.341 0.221 0.163 0.209 0.226 0.206 0.206 SERR 0.088 0.019 0.009 0.012 0.013 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.882 0.950 0.953 0.967 0.973 0.961 0.969 NSS 16.6 23.9 25.8 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1880 1979 100 0.995 0.220 0.119 4.098 0.257 0.053 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.211 0.080 0.107 31 69 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.34 1.02 1.12 1.47 10.04 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.053 0.045 -0.112 -0.060 -0.150 0.071 -0.168 0.178 -0.077 0.046 PACF 0.053 0.042 -0.117 -0.050 -0.137 0.080 -0.183 0.172 -0.106 0.015 95% C.L. 0.200 0.201 0.201 0.203 0.204 0.209 0.209 0.215 0.221 0.222 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 0.049 -0.111 -0.048 -0.152 0.088 -0.182 0.192 -0.090 0.059 PACF -0.002 0.049 -0.111 -0.051 -0.143 0.082 -0.188 0.168 -0.098 0.019 95% C.L. 0.200 0.200 0.200 0.203 0.203 0.208 0.209 0.216 0.222 0.224 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.003 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1880 1979 100 0.993 0.232 0.227 4.443 0.228 0.321 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.318 0.097 -0.098 -0.101 -0.154 -0.006 -0.118 0.107 -0.044 -0.005 PACF 0.318 -0.004 -0.142 -0.033 -0.108 0.077 -0.156 0.178 -0.148 0.006 95% C.L. 0.200 0.219 0.221 0.223 0.225 0.229 0.229 0.231 0.233 0.233 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.103 0.321 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.52 MINUTES