RUN: SWIT003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT162L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT162L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 608 1 Toppwald BE, Tanne gesun WIDTH_LATE ABAL - 608 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 875 4652-741 1796 1979 - 608 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 608161 1885 1979 95 0.572 0.187 0.587 4.037 0.289 0.326 2 608162 1886 1979 94 0.506 0.175 0.977 5.546 0.276 0.419 3 608171 1909 1979 71 0.565 0.304 1.350 3.979 0.286 0.761 4 608172 1890 1979 90 0.573 0.275 1.130 3.790 0.287 0.635 5 608181 1857 1979 123 0.566 0.246 0.300 2.456 0.275 0.712 6 608182 1875 1979 105 0.643 0.263 0.137 2.967 0.236 0.747 7 608191 1830 1979 150 0.414 0.203 1.014 4.396 0.265 0.780 8 608192 1851 1979 129 0.469 0.255 0.953 3.258 0.277 0.803 9 608201 1849 1979 131 0.637 0.472 1.532 5.089 0.226 0.869 10 608202 1883 1979 97 0.433 0.251 1.528 4.906 0.268 0.820 11 608211 1891 1979 89 0.614 0.261 0.399 3.150 0.358 0.499 12 608212 1891 1979 89 0.745 0.288 0.566 3.790 0.330 0.370 13 608221 1876 1979 104 0.504 0.266 0.948 3.814 0.261 0.752 14 608222 1890 1979 90 0.408 0.154 1.360 5.573 0.248 0.614 15 608231 1867 1979 113 0.376 0.221 1.323 5.235 0.315 0.726 16 608232 1796 1979 184 0.268 0.118 0.507 2.881 0.249 0.739 17 608241 1845 1979 135 0.431 0.203 1.111 4.556 0.379 0.486 18 608242 1836 1979 144 0.381 0.223 0.887 3.251 0.344 0.628 19 608251 1898 1979 82 0.653 0.363 1.505 5.253 0.280 0.805 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 608252 1885 1979 95 0.517 0.247 0.243 2.236 0.249 0.817 21 608261 1878 1979 102 0.620 0.174 -0.122 3.231 0.262 0.378 22 608262 1878 1979 102 0.588 0.154 0.337 3.308 0.250 0.266 23 608271 1884 1979 96 0.488 0.182 0.505 5.227 0.293 0.515 24 608272 1893 1979 87 0.512 0.121 0.676 4.035 0.243 0.075 25 608281 1893 1979 87 0.560 0.196 0.897 4.084 0.242 0.624 26 608282 1878 1979 102 0.546 0.186 0.267 3.484 0.246 0.537 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1796 TO 1979 184 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 107 0.523 0.230 0.805 3.982 0.278 0.604 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.106 0.076 0.473 0.960 0.039 0.204 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 99 0.531 0.222 0.892 3.897 0.272 0.631 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.155 0.082 0.730 1.655 0.040 0.275 MINIMUM VALUE 71 0.268 0.118 -0.122 2.236 0.226 0.075 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 0.433 0.182 0.399 3.251 0.249 0.486 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 0.588 0.263 1.130 4.906 0.289 0.761 MAXIMUM VALUE 184 0.745 0.472 1.532 5.573 0.379 0.869 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.202 0.255 0.014 -0.496 3.132 -0.548 0.741 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.548 SERIES 608201 AND 608231 113 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.741 SERIES 608171 AND 608172 71 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 10. 36. 300. 325. RBAR 0.540 0.448 0.193 0.210 SDEV 0.133 0.221 0.259 0.274 SERR 0.042 0.037 0.015 0.015 EPS 0.936 0.946 0.860 0.874 NSS 12.4 21.7 25.8 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1796 1979 184 0.376 0.181 0.095 1.923 0.189 0.862 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.872 0.487 -0.043 67 117 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.37 0.85 1.01 1.12 1.97 14.66 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.94 0.00 0.00 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 100. 33. 71. 90. 123. 184. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.858 0.849 0.788 0.771 0.727 0.707 0.669 0.672 0.628 0.617 PACF 0.858 0.428 0.021 0.087 0.000 0.034 -0.017 0.125 -0.057 -0.003 95% C.L. 0.147 0.232 0.292 0.335 0.371 0.401 0.427 0.449 0.471 0.489 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.791 0.479 0.443 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 608161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00108399 0.52007389 2 608162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00130903 0.44388470 3 608171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00638900 0.33492556 4 608172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00688859 0.25968039 5 608181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00352949 0.34710649 6 608182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00235694 0.51765382 7 608191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021702 0.39808142 8 608192 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00120874 0.39081153 9 608201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00936871 0.01861187 10 608202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00198283 0.33593428 11 608211 1 0.22698025 0.06963520 0.00000000 0.57886583 12 608212 1 0.56138432 0.08860748 0.00000000 0.67689061 13 608221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00662029 0.15685773 14 608222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00083130 0.37006491 15 608231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00440216 0.62685210 16 608232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00108787 0.16736101 17 608241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00191123 0.30092537 18 608242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00262290 0.19053419 19 608251 1 1.03017712 0.03837062 0.00000000 0.34593827 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 608252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00676372 0.84160584 21 608261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011235 0.61431175 22 608262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00123268 0.65132594 23 608271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00201519 0.58586186 24 608272 1 0.13628919 0.01492256 0.00000000 0.43654835 25 608281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00357257 0.40303662 26 608282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00322831 0.37952632 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 608161 1885 1979 95 1.000 0.321 0.586 4.328 0.286 0.308 2 608162 1886 1979 94 1.000 0.334 0.902 5.379 0.273 0.369 3 608171 1909 1979 71 0.997 0.466 1.605 5.285 0.280 0.733 4 608172 1890 1979 90 1.012 0.358 0.782 4.161 0.284 0.465 5 608181 1857 1979 123 0.996 0.361 0.184 2.864 0.273 0.611 6 608182 1875 1979 105 0.997 0.398 0.216 2.761 0.234 0.744 7 608191 1830 1979 150 1.000 0.490 1.031 4.459 0.263 0.776 8 608192 1851 1979 129 0.998 0.532 0.997 3.411 0.274 0.800 9 608201 1849 1979 131 1.263 1.124 3.383 14.214 0.224 0.839 10 608202 1883 1979 97 1.001 0.536 1.202 4.280 0.266 0.789 11 608211 1891 1979 89 1.000 0.419 0.365 2.994 0.354 0.447 12 608212 1891 1979 89 1.000 0.362 0.472 3.407 0.325 0.259 13 608221 1876 1979 104 0.992 0.306 1.289 5.208 0.258 0.397 14 608222 1890 1979 90 1.000 0.367 1.222 5.244 0.245 0.595 15 608231 1867 1979 113 1.000 0.401 0.423 2.601 0.312 0.534 16 608232 1796 1979 184 0.995 0.384 0.585 2.961 0.248 0.675 17 608241 1845 1979 135 0.998 0.416 0.840 4.393 0.377 0.404 18 608242 1836 1979 144 0.989 0.479 0.788 3.187 0.343 0.552 19 608251 1898 1979 82 1.002 0.380 0.766 3.651 0.277 0.514 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 608252 1885 1979 95 1.007 0.398 1.393 5.906 0.248 0.587 21 608261 1878 1979 102 1.000 0.281 -0.131 3.230 0.260 0.375 22 608262 1878 1979 102 1.000 0.259 0.556 3.722 0.248 0.222 23 608271 1884 1979 96 0.998 0.361 0.718 6.136 0.290 0.401 24 608272 1893 1979 87 1.000 0.231 0.696 3.564 0.240 0.018 25 608281 1893 1979 87 1.004 0.314 0.549 3.686 0.239 0.529 26 608282 1878 1979 102 1.000 0.297 0.166 3.201 0.243 0.457 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 107 1.010 0.407 0.830 4.394 0.276 0.515 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.052 0.166 0.663 2.241 0.039 0.201 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 99 1.000 0.373 0.742 3.704 0.269 0.521 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.002 0.098 0.559 2.007 0.038 0.277 MINIMUM VALUE 71 0.989 0.231 -0.131 2.601 0.224 0.018 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 0.998 0.321 0.472 3.201 0.248 0.397 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.419 1.031 5.208 0.286 0.675 MAXIMUM VALUE 184 1.263 1.124 3.383 14.214 0.377 0.839 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 608161 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 608162 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 608171 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 608172 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 608181 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 608182 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 608191 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 608192 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 608201 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 608202 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 608211 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 608212 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 608221 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 608222 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 608231 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 608232 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 608241 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 608242 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 608251 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 608252 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 608261 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 608262 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 608271 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 608272 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 608281 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 608282 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 608161 1885 1979 95 0.998 0.310 0.477 3.724 0.287 0.245 2 608162 1886 1979 94 0.999 0.319 0.764 5.129 0.273 0.319 3 608171 1909 1979 71 0.988 0.379 0.747 3.570 0.279 0.605 4 608172 1890 1979 90 0.998 0.322 0.591 3.331 0.284 0.356 5 608181 1857 1979 123 0.996 0.340 0.082 2.848 0.273 0.551 6 608182 1875 1979 105 0.992 0.283 -0.258 3.606 0.237 0.526 7 608191 1830 1979 150 0.987 0.405 0.552 2.995 0.263 0.671 8 608192 1851 1979 129 0.983 0.397 0.731 3.587 0.274 0.631 9 608201 1849 1979 131 1.002 0.403 0.348 2.366 0.223 0.744 10 608202 1883 1979 97 0.978 0.413 0.715 3.958 0.264 0.679 11 608211 1891 1979 89 0.993 0.392 0.184 2.906 0.354 0.394 12 608212 1891 1979 89 0.997 0.339 0.272 3.398 0.324 0.187 13 608221 1876 1979 104 0.998 0.281 0.888 4.158 0.258 0.308 14 608222 1890 1979 90 0.996 0.316 0.980 4.879 0.245 0.497 15 608231 1867 1979 113 0.992 0.376 0.445 2.784 0.311 0.492 16 608232 1796 1979 184 0.994 0.348 0.776 4.111 0.248 0.572 17 608241 1845 1979 135 0.995 0.387 0.579 3.482 0.377 0.329 18 608242 1836 1979 144 0.988 0.417 0.714 3.250 0.342 0.409 19 608251 1898 1979 82 0.994 0.305 0.317 2.535 0.276 0.334 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 608252 1885 1979 95 0.991 0.320 0.555 3.066 0.247 0.465 21 608261 1878 1979 102 0.997 0.253 -0.195 3.706 0.259 0.213 22 608262 1878 1979 102 0.999 0.247 0.525 4.036 0.248 0.152 23 608271 1884 1979 96 0.994 0.308 1.244 7.144 0.287 0.018 24 608272 1893 1979 87 0.999 0.215 0.349 3.227 0.241 -0.073 25 608281 1893 1979 87 0.997 0.237 -0.224 3.766 0.238 0.242 26 608282 1878 1979 102 0.994 0.262 -0.043 3.383 0.243 0.335 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 107 0.994 0.330 0.466 3.652 0.275 0.392 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.005 0.059 0.378 0.956 0.038 0.205 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 99 0.995 0.321 0.538 3.526 0.268 0.375 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.006 0.103 0.459 0.893 0.040 0.306 MINIMUM VALUE 71 0.978 0.215 -0.258 2.366 0.223 -0.073 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 0.992 0.283 0.272 3.066 0.247 0.245 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 0.998 0.387 0.731 3.958 0.287 0.551 MAXIMUM VALUE 184 1.002 0.417 1.244 7.144 0.377 0.744 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.276 0.163 0.009 -0.025 3.211 -0.270 0.729 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.270 SERIES 608171 AND 608231 71 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.729 SERIES 608171 AND 608172 71 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 10. 36. 300. 325. RBAR 0.333 0.418 0.253 0.267 SDEV 0.173 0.221 0.182 0.219 SERR 0.055 0.037 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.861 0.940 0.898 0.904 NSS 12.4 21.7 25.8 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1796 1979 184 0.971 0.263 0.289 4.080 0.218 0.478 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.239 0.137 0.091 40 144 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.63 1.01 1.06 1.70 3.79 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.34 0.00 0.61 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.476 0.481 0.290 0.199 0.071 0.027 -0.095 -0.058 -0.152 -0.150 PACF 0.476 0.329 -0.028 -0.067 -0.093 -0.020 -0.111 0.037 -0.072 -0.063 95% C.L. 0.147 0.178 0.204 0.213 0.217 0.217 0.217 0.218 0.219 0.221 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.335 0.322 0.348 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.302 0.327 0.062 0.060 -0.070 -0.089 -0.195 -0.084 -0.201 -0.196 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.302 2 0.224 0.260 3 0.251 0.283 -0.105 4 0.249 0.289 -0.100 -0.020 5 0.247 0.281 -0.078 -0.001 -0.076 6 0.242 0.281 -0.084 0.019 -0.058 -0.073 7 0.232 0.273 -0.081 0.008 -0.021 -0.041 -0.132 8 0.238 0.275 -0.080 0.008 -0.018 -0.053 -0.141 0.042 9 0.243 0.258 -0.087 0.006 -0.017 -0.062 -0.109 0.070 -0.119 10 0.225 0.269 -0.103 -0.003 -0.019 -0.061 -0.122 0.109 -0.082 -0.149 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1417.73 1402.13 1391.29 1391.25 1393.17 1394.10 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1395.12 1393.91 1395.58 1394.98 1392.83 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.251 0.283 -0.105 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 16.18 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 119.31 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.251 0.346 0.053 0.085 0.000 0.018 -0.004 0.004 -0.002 0.0011 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 608161 3 0.080 0.262 -0.061 -0.085 2 608162 3 0.220 0.284 0.242 -0.149 3 608171 3 0.397 0.537 0.201 -0.098 4 608172 3 0.151 0.321 0.154 -0.082 5 608181 3 0.385 0.381 0.292 0.035 6 608182 3 0.347 0.403 0.326 -0.099 7 608191 3 0.485 0.560 0.146 0.044 8 608192 3 0.430 0.593 0.189 -0.158 9 608201 3 0.604 0.542 0.306 -0.029 10 608202 3 0.478 0.627 0.153 -0.090 11 608211 3 0.186 0.334 0.183 -0.025 12 608212 3 0.052 0.187 0.046 -0.121 13 608221 3 0.098 0.291 0.051 0.007 14 608222 3 0.308 0.417 0.182 -0.025 15 608231 3 0.343 0.376 0.195 0.082 16 608232 3 0.415 0.414 0.304 -0.001 17 608241 3 0.178 0.251 0.282 -0.036 18 608242 3 0.257 0.288 0.317 -0.009 19 608251 3 0.233 0.322 0.252 -0.248 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 608252 3 0.318 0.380 0.332 -0.139 21 608261 3 0.135 0.128 0.257 0.103 22 608262 3 0.094 0.135 0.134 -0.025 23 608271 3 0.067 0.025 0.155 -0.063 24 608272 3 0.040 -0.072 0.045 0.042 25 608281 3 0.128 0.215 0.250 -0.117 26 608282 3 0.127 0.348 -0.053 0.094 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.252 0.329 0.188 -0.046 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.157 0.168 0.111 0.085 MEDIAN 3 0.227 0.328 0.192 -0.032 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.258 0.163 0.136 0.106 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.040 -0.072 -0.061 -0.248 LOWER HINGE 3 0.127 0.251 0.146 -0.099 UPPER HINGE 3 0.385 0.414 0.282 0.007 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.604 0.627 0.332 0.103 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 608161 1885 1979 95 1.000 0.298 0.327 3.566 0.335 0.007 2 608162 1886 1979 94 1.000 0.291 0.913 4.571 0.312 -0.039 3 608171 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.294 0.368 2.836 0.335 0.000 4 608172 1890 1979 90 1.000 0.297 0.904 4.211 0.316 0.004 5 608181 1857 1979 123 1.000 0.265 -0.330 3.556 0.315 -0.004 6 608182 1875 1979 105 1.000 0.230 -0.053 4.041 0.260 -0.007 7 608191 1830 1979 150 1.000 0.289 0.121 4.262 0.338 -0.006 8 608192 1851 1979 129 1.000 0.299 0.843 5.419 0.332 0.007 9 608201 1849 1979 131 1.000 0.252 0.281 3.305 0.274 -0.007 10 608202 1883 1979 97 1.000 0.297 0.151 4.907 0.328 0.003 11 608211 1891 1979 89 1.000 0.353 0.376 3.619 0.400 -0.005 12 608212 1891 1979 89 1.000 0.330 0.268 3.452 0.362 -0.006 13 608221 1876 1979 104 1.000 0.267 0.826 3.743 0.288 0.000 14 608222 1890 1979 90 1.000 0.269 0.573 4.754 0.303 -0.005 15 608231 1867 1979 113 1.000 0.311 0.485 2.603 0.341 0.003 16 608232 1796 1979 184 1.000 0.263 0.678 4.691 0.282 -0.023 17 608241 1845 1979 135 1.000 0.350 0.434 3.185 0.403 0.000 18 608242 1836 1979 144 1.000 0.359 0.883 4.290 0.373 -0.001 19 608251 1898 1979 82 1.000 0.273 0.234 2.586 0.322 -0.054 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 608252 1885 1979 95 1.000 0.267 0.234 4.032 0.297 -0.005 21 608261 1878 1979 102 1.000 0.236 -0.084 3.488 0.273 0.010 22 608262 1878 1979 102 1.000 0.242 0.483 3.979 0.268 -0.005 23 608271 1884 1979 96 1.000 0.304 1.397 7.761 0.276 0.011 24 608272 1893 1979 87 1.000 0.214 0.370 3.223 0.232 -0.007 25 608281 1893 1979 87 1.000 0.222 -0.138 3.824 0.257 0.009 26 608282 1878 1979 102 1.000 0.245 -0.127 3.243 0.272 -0.006 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 107 1.000 0.281 0.401 3.967 0.311 -0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.000 0.039 0.401 1.046 0.043 0.014 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 99 1.000 0.281 0.369 3.784 0.313 -0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.000 0.048 0.527 0.985 0.061 0.009 MINIMUM VALUE 71 1.000 0.214 -0.330 2.586 0.232 -0.054 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.252 0.151 3.305 0.274 -0.006 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.299 0.678 4.290 0.335 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 184 1.000 0.359 1.397 7.761 0.403 0.011 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.312 0.137 0.008 -0.071 3.043 -0.096 0.668 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.096 SERIES 608171 AND 608231 71 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.668 SERIES 608181 AND 608182 105 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 10. 36. 300. 325. RBAR 0.308 0.385 0.310 0.288 SDEV 0.145 0.152 0.143 0.191 SERR 0.046 0.025 0.008 0.011 EPS 0.847 0.931 0.921 0.913 NSS 12.4 21.7 25.8 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1796 1979 184 0.983 0.182 -0.112 4.572 0.210 -0.066 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.179 0.125 0.060 43 141 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.55 1.01 1.06 1.62 4.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.23 0.00 0.72 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.065 0.077 0.058 0.033 -0.051 0.008 -0.126 0.016 -0.113 -0.060 PACF -0.065 0.073 0.068 0.036 -0.057 -0.009 -0.124 0.006 -0.092 -0.062 95% C.L. 0.147 0.148 0.149 0.149 0.150 0.150 0.150 0.152 0.152 0.154 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.001 0.008 0.041 -0.049 -0.006 -0.113 0.013 -0.103 -0.062 PACF -0.001 -0.001 0.008 0.041 -0.049 -0.006 -0.114 0.012 -0.102 -0.063 95% C.L. 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.148 0.148 0.148 0.150 0.150 0.151 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.008 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1796 1979 184 0.984 0.199 0.012 4.468 0.189 0.299 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.298 0.337 0.055 0.092 -0.077 -0.035 -0.169 -0.075 -0.181 -0.110 PACF 0.298 0.272 -0.117 0.016 -0.097 -0.025 -0.115 0.003 -0.090 -0.050 95% C.L. 0.147 0.160 0.175 0.175 0.176 0.177 0.177 0.180 0.181 0.185 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.176 0.254 0.305 -0.119 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES