RUN: SWIT003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT162P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT162P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 608 1 Toppwald BE, Tanne gesun LATEWOOD_PERCENT ABAL - 608 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 875 4652-741 1796 1979 - 608 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 608161 1885 1979 95 2.543 0.701 0.978 4.859 0.248 0.285 2 608162 1886 1979 94 2.693 0.726 1.237 4.893 0.253 0.143 3 608171 1909 1979 71 2.368 0.698 0.460 3.615 0.295 0.310 4 608172 1890 1979 90 2.534 0.691 0.749 4.967 0.257 0.315 5 608181 1857 1979 123 3.292 0.602 -0.227 3.821 0.191 0.160 6 608182 1875 1979 105 3.486 0.635 -0.085 3.022 0.160 0.411 7 608191 1830 1979 150 3.699 0.812 0.699 3.210 0.184 0.406 8 608192 1851 1979 129 3.818 0.817 0.398 2.951 0.175 0.426 9 608201 1849 1979 131 3.870 0.908 0.485 3.403 0.183 0.504 10 608202 1883 1979 97 3.173 0.764 0.098 2.785 0.183 0.522 11 608211 1891 1979 89 2.545 0.676 0.316 3.627 0.260 0.279 12 608212 1891 1979 89 3.062 0.886 0.776 3.435 0.256 0.294 13 608221 1876 1979 104 3.346 0.942 0.956 3.595 0.220 0.505 14 608222 1890 1979 90 2.882 0.659 0.655 3.770 0.188 0.477 15 608231 1867 1979 113 2.252 0.620 0.666 3.519 0.221 0.521 16 608232 1796 1979 184 2.671 0.777 1.043 4.654 0.206 0.577 17 608241 1845 1979 135 3.110 0.954 0.340 3.118 0.238 0.520 18 608242 1836 1979 144 3.014 0.748 0.228 2.790 0.255 0.181 19 608251 1898 1979 82 3.720 0.874 0.204 2.700 0.199 0.521 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 608252 1885 1979 95 3.495 0.748 0.255 2.629 0.213 0.236 21 608261 1878 1979 102 2.989 0.635 0.673 3.494 0.190 0.354 22 608262 1878 1979 102 2.866 0.493 0.253 3.615 0.189 0.101 23 608271 1884 1979 96 2.444 0.885 -0.651 3.370 0.267 0.703 24 608272 1893 1979 87 2.414 0.558 -0.321 3.681 0.238 0.256 25 608281 1893 1979 87 2.672 0.598 0.492 3.168 0.194 0.408 26 608282 1878 1979 102 2.692 0.687 0.428 3.788 0.234 0.365 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1796 TO 1979 184 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 107 2.987 0.734 0.427 3.557 0.219 0.376 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.483 0.123 0.438 0.659 0.035 0.150 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 99 2.936 0.713 0.444 3.507 0.216 0.386 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.801 0.181 0.471 0.651 0.064 0.226 MINIMUM VALUE 71 2.252 0.493 -0.651 2.629 0.160 0.101 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 2.545 0.635 0.228 3.118 0.189 0.279 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 3.346 0.817 0.699 3.770 0.253 0.505 MAXIMUM VALUE 184 3.870 0.954 1.237 4.967 0.295 0.703 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.219 0.187 0.010 -0.062 3.021 -0.353 0.780 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.353 SERIES 608261 AND 608271 96 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.780 SERIES 608171 AND 608172 71 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 10. 36. 300. 325. RBAR 0.172 0.363 0.274 0.264 SDEV 0.292 0.326 0.194 0.204 SERR 0.092 0.054 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.721 0.925 0.907 0.903 NSS 12.4 21.7 25.8 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1796 1979 184 3.137 0.577 1.090 5.972 0.144 0.392 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.012 0.009 0.625 48 136 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.36 0.72 1.01 1.11 1.83 484.05 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.64 0.00 0.31 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 100. 33. 71. 90. 123. 184. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.390 0.369 0.290 0.130 0.221 0.143 0.020 0.156 0.043 0.159 PACF 0.390 0.256 0.105 -0.090 0.132 0.023 -0.132 0.131 -0.013 0.123 95% C.L. 0.147 0.168 0.185 0.195 0.197 0.202 0.204 0.204 0.207 0.207 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.228 0.262 0.230 0.108 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 608161 1 2.14663768 0.11654855 0.00000000 2.36057520 2 608162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00206365 2.59495544 3 608171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00957780 2.71254730 4 608172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00881409 2.93504119 5 608181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00510751 3.60829139 6 608182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00326664 3.65894151 7 608191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00071509 3.64534402 8 608192 1 0.43511197 0.00690431 0.00000000 3.53141451 9 608201 1 1.56626534 0.06883006 0.00000000 3.70192051 10 608202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01241137 2.56493545 11 608211 1 1.48102951 0.11708213 0.00000000 2.41075325 12 608212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00530831 3.30055928 13 608221 1 2.98282266 0.11484307 0.00000000 3.10999990 14 608222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023558 2.87150311 15 608231 1 1.58162677 0.02793838 0.00000000 1.77915537 16 608232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00668593 3.28991628 17 608241 1 2.51057410 0.03090232 0.00000000 2.52640843 18 608242 1 2.20076799 0.19808112 0.00000000 2.94467854 19 608251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02335652 4.68880749 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 608252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00843001 3.09051728 21 608261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01190731 2.37579298 22 608262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00525946 2.59502029 23 608271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01850651 3.34131575 24 608272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00708755 2.72541571 25 608281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01277575 2.10970592 26 608282 1 2.15867519 0.20179990 0.00000000 2.59741187 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 608161 1885 1979 95 1.000 0.234 0.610 3.929 0.244 0.058 2 608162 1886 1979 94 1.000 0.269 1.308 5.416 0.250 0.141 3 608171 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.284 0.479 3.318 0.291 0.233 4 608172 1890 1979 90 1.000 0.261 0.914 5.292 0.254 0.207 5 608181 1857 1979 123 1.000 0.177 -0.137 3.652 0.189 0.086 6 608182 1875 1979 105 1.000 0.181 -0.021 3.000 0.158 0.387 7 608191 1830 1979 150 1.000 0.219 0.716 3.269 0.182 0.405 8 608192 1851 1979 129 1.000 0.214 0.470 2.980 0.173 0.414 9 608201 1849 1979 131 1.000 0.221 0.370 2.966 0.181 0.444 10 608202 1883 1979 97 1.000 0.212 -0.352 2.688 0.181 0.389 11 608211 1891 1979 89 1.000 0.250 0.573 5.042 0.256 0.118 12 608212 1891 1979 89 1.000 0.286 0.727 3.070 0.253 0.264 13 608221 1876 1979 104 1.000 0.236 0.740 3.553 0.217 0.291 14 608222 1890 1979 90 1.000 0.229 0.654 3.757 0.186 0.472 15 608231 1867 1979 113 1.000 0.211 0.165 2.451 0.220 0.179 16 608232 1796 1979 184 1.000 0.250 0.592 3.149 0.205 0.443 17 608241 1845 1979 135 1.000 0.249 0.292 2.799 0.236 0.160 18 608242 1836 1979 144 1.000 0.236 0.122 2.500 0.253 0.088 19 608251 1898 1979 82 1.000 0.183 -0.016 2.874 0.196 0.117 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 608252 1885 1979 95 1.000 0.204 0.356 2.774 0.210 0.195 21 608261 1878 1979 102 1.001 0.173 0.099 3.603 0.188 0.096 22 608262 1878 1979 102 1.000 0.162 0.022 3.489 0.187 0.018 23 608271 1884 1979 96 0.992 0.336 0.083 3.919 0.264 0.531 24 608272 1893 1979 87 1.000 0.225 -0.082 3.269 0.235 0.185 25 608281 1893 1979 87 1.000 0.183 -0.051 2.907 0.192 0.161 26 608282 1878 1979 102 1.000 0.237 0.475 4.786 0.231 0.269 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 107 1.000 0.228 0.350 3.479 0.217 0.244 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.001 0.040 0.383 0.828 0.035 0.147 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 99 1.000 0.227 0.363 3.269 0.213 0.201 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.000 0.045 0.588 0.850 0.063 0.270 MINIMUM VALUE 71 0.992 0.162 -0.352 2.451 0.158 0.018 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.204 0.022 2.907 0.187 0.118 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.250 0.610 3.757 0.250 0.389 MAXIMUM VALUE 184 1.001 0.336 1.308 5.416 0.291 0.531 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 608161 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 608162 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 608171 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 608172 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 608181 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 608182 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 608191 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 608192 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 608201 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 608202 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 608211 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 608212 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 608221 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 608222 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 608231 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 608232 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 608241 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 608242 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 608251 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 608252 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 608261 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 608262 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 608271 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 608272 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 608281 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 608282 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 608161 1885 1979 95 0.999 0.227 0.679 4.155 0.244 0.019 2 608162 1886 1979 94 0.997 0.243 1.018 4.406 0.250 0.033 3 608171 1909 1979 71 0.998 0.259 0.291 3.421 0.291 0.078 4 608172 1890 1979 90 0.999 0.248 0.836 5.041 0.254 0.125 5 608181 1857 1979 123 0.999 0.172 -0.206 3.769 0.189 0.043 6 608182 1875 1979 105 0.999 0.149 -0.367 3.376 0.158 0.059 7 608191 1830 1979 150 0.998 0.202 0.368 2.757 0.182 0.304 8 608192 1851 1979 129 0.998 0.194 0.371 2.832 0.173 0.302 9 608201 1849 1979 131 0.998 0.195 0.337 3.329 0.181 0.299 10 608202 1883 1979 97 0.997 0.185 -0.295 3.149 0.180 0.153 11 608211 1891 1979 89 0.999 0.234 0.196 3.921 0.257 0.012 12 608212 1891 1979 89 0.997 0.267 0.676 3.419 0.253 0.150 13 608221 1876 1979 104 0.998 0.209 0.399 2.994 0.216 0.155 14 608222 1890 1979 90 0.997 0.199 0.491 3.405 0.186 0.335 15 608231 1867 1979 113 0.999 0.207 0.205 2.669 0.220 0.129 16 608232 1796 1979 184 0.998 0.238 0.631 3.411 0.205 0.391 17 608241 1845 1979 135 0.999 0.240 0.297 2.861 0.236 0.105 18 608242 1836 1979 144 0.999 0.230 0.240 2.826 0.253 0.012 19 608251 1898 1979 82 0.999 0.178 0.107 2.772 0.196 0.078 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 608252 1885 1979 95 0.998 0.188 0.285 2.763 0.210 0.068 21 608261 1878 1979 102 1.000 0.165 0.049 3.532 0.188 0.005 22 608262 1878 1979 102 1.000 0.158 0.004 3.580 0.187 -0.021 23 608271 1884 1979 96 0.996 0.293 0.836 7.401 0.264 0.093 24 608272 1893 1979 87 0.998 0.199 0.123 3.541 0.235 -0.065 25 608281 1893 1979 87 0.999 0.178 -0.063 2.952 0.192 0.112 26 608282 1878 1979 102 0.998 0.221 0.476 5.819 0.230 0.156 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 107 0.998 0.211 0.307 3.619 0.217 0.120 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.001 0.036 0.346 1.068 0.035 0.118 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 99 0.998 0.205 0.294 3.408 0.213 0.099 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.001 0.053 0.384 0.908 0.064 0.123 MINIMUM VALUE 71 0.996 0.149 -0.367 2.669 0.158 -0.065 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 0.998 0.185 0.107 2.861 0.187 0.033 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 0.999 0.238 0.491 3.769 0.250 0.155 MAXIMUM VALUE 184 1.000 0.293 1.018 7.401 0.291 0.391 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.286 0.136 0.008 0.063 3.351 -0.084 0.764 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.084 SERIES 608231 AND 608272 87 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.764 SERIES 608171 AND 608172 71 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 10. 36. 300. 325. RBAR 0.357 0.365 0.313 0.307 SDEV 0.190 0.205 0.163 0.171 SERR 0.060 0.034 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.873 0.926 0.922 0.920 NSS 12.4 21.7 25.8 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1796 1979 184 1.001 0.167 0.640 3.825 0.161 0.200 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.031 0.017 0.126 41 143 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.35 1.00 1.05 1.39 8.68 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.32 0.00 0.65 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.199 0.152 0.026 -0.018 0.052 0.044 -0.143 0.027 -0.116 0.026 PACF 0.199 0.117 -0.026 -0.038 0.066 0.034 -0.183 0.079 -0.092 0.054 95% C.L. 0.147 0.153 0.156 0.156 0.157 0.157 0.157 0.160 0.160 0.162 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.054 0.176 0.119 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.065 0.036 -0.171 0.101 0.050 0.001 -0.128 0.063 -0.140 0.009 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.065 2 0.063 0.032 3 0.069 0.043 -0.177 4 0.091 0.037 -0.185 0.127 5 0.085 0.046 -0.187 0.123 0.048 6 0.088 0.053 -0.197 0.125 0.053 -0.051 7 0.083 0.057 -0.185 0.107 0.057 -0.043 -0.093 8 0.092 0.062 -0.191 0.097 0.075 -0.048 -0.101 0.096 9 0.108 0.044 -0.199 0.110 0.092 -0.081 -0.090 0.112 -0.174 10 0.107 0.045 -0.200 0.109 0.093 -0.080 -0.092 0.112 -0.172 -0.010 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1252.81 1254.03 1255.85 1252.01 1251.00 1252.57 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1254.10 1254.51 1254.81 1251.18 1253.16 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.091 0.037 -0.185 0.127 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.19 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 105.48 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.091 0.046 -0.178 0.096 0.005 0.043 -0.036 0.010 -0.008 0.0118 -0.006 0.003 -0.003 0.002 -0.001 0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 608161 4 0.060 0.001 -0.138 -0.183 0.029 2 608162 4 0.036 0.027 -0.090 -0.029 -0.167 3 608171 4 0.048 0.089 -0.098 -0.032 0.129 4 608172 4 0.095 0.113 -0.208 -0.148 -0.040 5 608181 4 0.072 0.029 0.204 0.019 0.041 6 608182 4 0.043 0.064 0.087 -0.089 0.016 7 608191 4 0.139 0.280 0.106 -0.075 0.157 8 608192 4 0.141 0.279 0.118 -0.099 0.181 9 608201 4 0.125 0.232 0.134 0.053 0.081 10 608202 4 0.116 0.176 -0.027 -0.136 0.157 11 608211 4 0.044 0.010 0.091 0.027 -0.057 12 608212 4 0.102 0.138 0.171 -0.069 0.169 13 608221 4 0.045 0.140 0.091 -0.006 0.085 14 608222 4 0.159 0.290 0.058 0.200 -0.050 15 608231 4 0.055 0.117 0.078 0.132 -0.072 16 608232 4 0.214 0.305 0.220 0.067 -0.097 17 608241 4 0.109 0.083 0.299 -0.023 -0.073 18 608242 4 0.021 0.011 0.096 -0.007 -0.015 19 608251 4 0.211 0.072 0.292 -0.248 -0.189 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 608252 4 0.041 0.064 0.178 -0.042 0.027 21 608261 4 0.082 -0.012 0.038 -0.116 -0.173 22 608262 4 0.026 -0.020 0.005 0.005 -0.057 23 608271 4 0.174 0.094 0.110 -0.061 0.370 24 608272 4 0.081 -0.079 -0.181 0.022 0.171 25 608281 4 0.099 0.103 0.250 -0.144 -0.123 26 608282 4 0.050 0.166 -0.089 -0.061 0.003 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.092 0.107 0.069 -0.040 0.019 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.055 0.104 0.139 0.097 0.133 MEDIAN 4 0.081 0.091 0.091 -0.037 0.010 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.081 0.140 0.198 0.118 0.201 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.021 -0.079 -0.208 -0.248 -0.189 LOWER HINGE 4 0.045 0.027 -0.027 -0.099 -0.072 UPPER HINGE 4 0.125 0.166 0.171 0.019 0.129 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.214 0.305 0.299 0.200 0.370 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 608161 1885 1979 95 1.000 0.221 0.498 3.940 0.244 -0.002 2 608162 1886 1979 94 1.000 0.239 0.943 4.309 0.245 -0.002 3 608171 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.254 0.170 3.259 0.304 -0.013 4 608172 1890 1979 90 1.000 0.237 0.499 4.741 0.266 0.004 5 608181 1857 1979 123 1.000 0.168 -0.327 3.925 0.188 -0.003 6 608182 1875 1979 105 1.000 0.147 -0.196 3.358 0.163 -0.002 7 608191 1830 1979 150 1.000 0.188 0.245 2.883 0.207 -0.013 8 608192 1851 1979 129 1.000 0.180 0.379 3.578 0.197 0.011 9 608201 1849 1979 131 1.000 0.182 0.189 3.371 0.200 -0.003 10 608202 1883 1979 97 1.000 0.179 -0.291 3.890 0.200 -0.039 11 608211 1891 1979 89 1.000 0.232 0.327 4.005 0.256 0.010 12 608212 1891 1979 89 1.000 0.254 0.766 4.056 0.276 -0.016 13 608221 1876 1979 104 1.000 0.205 0.451 3.002 0.228 -0.005 14 608222 1890 1979 90 1.000 0.182 0.401 3.397 0.208 0.000 15 608231 1867 1979 113 1.000 0.202 0.288 2.906 0.232 -0.009 16 608232 1796 1979 184 1.000 0.213 0.357 3.185 0.237 0.010 17 608241 1845 1979 135 1.000 0.229 0.193 3.028 0.241 -0.009 18 608242 1836 1979 144 1.000 0.229 0.180 2.765 0.254 -0.002 19 608251 1898 1979 82 1.000 0.163 0.037 2.281 0.193 -0.045 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 608252 1885 1979 95 1.000 0.184 0.310 2.802 0.210 0.002 21 608261 1878 1979 102 1.000 0.161 0.205 3.208 0.184 -0.033 22 608262 1878 1979 102 1.000 0.158 -0.007 3.455 0.185 -0.008 23 608271 1884 1979 96 1.000 0.267 1.562 11.846 0.243 -0.021 24 608272 1893 1979 87 1.000 0.191 -0.122 3.263 0.222 0.006 25 608281 1893 1979 87 1.000 0.169 -0.113 3.049 0.196 0.008 26 608282 1878 1979 102 1.000 0.217 0.275 5.652 0.248 0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 107 1.000 0.202 0.277 3.814 0.224 -0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.000 0.033 0.395 1.781 0.033 0.014 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 99 1.000 0.196 0.260 3.364 0.225 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.000 0.050 0.363 0.911 0.048 0.014 MINIMUM VALUE 71 1.000 0.147 -0.327 2.281 0.163 -0.045 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.179 0.037 3.028 0.197 -0.013 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.229 0.401 3.940 0.245 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 184 1.000 0.267 1.562 11.846 0.304 0.011 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.277 0.137 0.008 0.097 3.271 -0.074 0.761 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.074 SERIES 608231 AND 608272 87 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.761 SERIES 608171 AND 608172 71 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 10. 36. 300. 325. RBAR 0.332 0.338 0.302 0.293 SDEV 0.217 0.184 0.164 0.162 SERR 0.069 0.031 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.860 0.917 0.918 0.915 NSS 12.4 21.7 25.8 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1796 1979 184 1.000 0.151 0.339 3.043 0.164 -0.021 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.055 0.030 0.100 41 143 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.27 1.00 1.05 1.33 4.19 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.28 0.00 0.68 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.020 -0.012 -0.026 -0.089 0.066 0.049 -0.130 0.051 -0.113 0.036 PACF -0.020 -0.012 -0.026 -0.090 0.062 0.049 -0.133 0.044 -0.102 0.032 95% C.L. 0.147 0.148 0.148 0.148 0.149 0.149 0.150 0.152 0.153 0.154 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.006 0.006 -0.010 0.002 0.053 0.046 -0.136 0.040 -0.108 0.030 PACF 0.006 0.006 -0.010 0.003 0.053 0.045 -0.138 0.043 -0.108 0.028 95% C.L. 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.148 0.148 0.151 0.151 0.153 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.003 0.006 0.006 -0.010 0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1796 1979 184 1.000 0.156 0.324 2.971 0.164 0.062 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.061 0.043 -0.201 0.134 0.033 0.102 -0.171 0.035 -0.122 0.053 PACF 0.061 0.039 -0.207 0.166 0.029 0.042 -0.135 0.053 -0.105 -0.009 95% C.L. 0.147 0.148 0.148 0.154 0.157 0.157 0.158 0.162 0.162 0.164 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.26 MINUTES