RUN: SWIT003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT162W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT162W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 608 1 Toppwald BE, Tanne gesun WIDTH_RING ABAL - 608 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 875 4652-741 1796 1979 - 608 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 608161 1885 1979 95 2.316 0.694 0.212 4.189 0.173 0.707 2 608162 1886 1979 94 1.918 0.525 -0.317 3.504 0.200 0.633 3 608171 1909 1979 71 2.449 1.104 0.485 2.132 0.201 0.874 4 608172 1890 1979 90 2.408 1.246 0.716 2.151 0.200 0.908 5 608181 1857 1979 123 1.744 0.727 -0.048 1.948 0.196 0.863 6 608182 1875 1979 105 1.828 0.660 -0.135 2.535 0.186 0.800 7 608191 1830 1979 150 1.120 0.487 0.673 2.837 0.210 0.826 8 608192 1851 1979 129 1.257 0.687 1.024 3.886 0.219 0.844 9 608201 1849 1979 131 1.668 1.107 1.124 3.824 0.197 0.928 10 608202 1883 1979 97 1.367 0.634 0.708 3.226 0.234 0.763 11 608211 1891 1979 89 2.362 0.678 -0.435 3.296 0.210 0.569 12 608212 1891 1979 89 2.494 0.799 -0.435 2.752 0.223 0.651 13 608221 1876 1979 104 1.593 0.786 0.194 2.442 0.183 0.887 14 608222 1890 1979 90 1.466 0.573 0.762 2.955 0.181 0.813 15 608231 1867 1979 113 1.597 0.666 0.544 2.712 0.172 0.837 16 608232 1796 1979 184 1.071 0.497 0.434 3.457 0.205 0.872 17 608241 1845 1979 135 1.476 0.734 1.045 4.266 0.192 0.894 18 608242 1836 1979 144 1.279 0.682 0.559 2.785 0.189 0.903 19 608251 1898 1979 82 1.685 0.643 0.860 3.431 0.162 0.852 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 608252 1885 1979 95 1.524 0.758 0.339 2.421 0.136 0.941 21 608261 1878 1979 102 2.105 0.571 -0.017 2.637 0.148 0.797 22 608262 1878 1979 102 2.062 0.455 -0.086 2.782 0.133 0.703 23 608271 1884 1979 96 2.118 0.557 0.272 3.518 0.156 0.725 24 608272 1893 1979 87 2.192 0.548 1.452 6.870 0.157 0.664 25 608281 1893 1979 87 2.085 0.503 0.122 2.322 0.139 0.730 26 608282 1878 1979 102 2.125 0.753 -0.072 2.886 0.171 0.771 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1796 TO 1979 184 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 107 1.820 0.695 0.384 3.145 0.184 0.798 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.430 0.195 0.502 0.986 0.027 0.100 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 99 1.786 0.672 0.386 2.862 0.187 0.819 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.649 0.196 0.763 0.969 0.039 0.149 MINIMUM VALUE 71 1.071 0.455 -0.435 1.948 0.133 0.569 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 1.476 0.557 -0.048 2.535 0.162 0.725 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 2.125 0.753 0.716 3.504 0.201 0.874 MAXIMUM VALUE 184 2.494 1.246 1.452 6.870 0.234 0.941 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.236 0.301 0.017 -0.514 3.170 -0.671 0.908 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.671 SERIES 608171 AND 608231 71 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.908 SERIES 608171 AND 608172 71 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 10. 36. 300. 325. RBAR 0.475 0.523 0.228 0.225 SDEV 0.163 0.205 0.297 0.364 SERR 0.052 0.034 0.017 0.020 EPS 0.918 0.960 0.884 0.883 NSS 12.4 21.7 25.8 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1796 1979 184 1.283 0.669 0.069 1.677 0.173 0.930 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.841 0.423 -0.089 50 134 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 1.59 1.00 1.05 2.64 23.68 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.94 0.00 0.00 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 100. 33. 71. 90. 123. 184. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.925 0.892 0.849 0.824 0.804 0.783 0.761 0.740 0.720 0.687 PACF 0.925 0.252 -0.013 0.102 0.083 0.020 0.003 0.005 0.018 -0.099 95% C.L. 0.147 0.243 0.306 0.353 0.393 0.427 0.457 0.484 0.508 0.530 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.877 0.652 0.299 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 608161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01282391 1.70034719 2 608162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00400412 1.72757030 3 608171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03839537 1.06635821 4 608172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03860501 0.65180522 5 608181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01240014 0.97517526 6 608182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00883568 1.35999453 7 608191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016758 1.10721433 8 608192 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00440854 0.97073156 9 608201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02260540 0.17590605 10 608202 1 2.35726738 0.52433717 0.00000000 1.33175671 11 608211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00138934 2.42488003 12 608212 1 1.37118924 0.06577960 0.00000000 2.26844168 13 608221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02232012 0.42136669 14 608222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00190180 1.37946820 15 608231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01145643 2.24974251 16 608232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00607509 0.50935853 17 608241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01104365 0.72480929 18 608242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00990600 0.56098193 19 608251 1 1.71389365 0.05550567 0.00000000 1.32266557 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 608252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02422298 2.68628216 21 608261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00735427 2.48394108 22 608262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00813515 2.48062706 23 608271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01108024 1.58021271 24 608272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00505668 1.96923018 25 608281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00139498 2.02402306 26 608282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01317917 1.44588041 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 608161 1885 1979 95 0.999 0.256 -0.152 3.985 0.171 0.645 2 608162 1886 1979 94 1.000 0.264 -0.474 3.729 0.198 0.615 3 608171 1909 1979 71 1.006 0.325 0.541 3.646 0.196 0.742 4 608172 1890 1979 90 1.046 0.390 1.041 5.231 0.197 0.723 5 608181 1857 1979 123 0.995 0.339 0.097 2.584 0.194 0.781 6 608182 1875 1979 105 0.997 0.335 0.010 2.433 0.184 0.777 7 608191 1830 1979 150 1.000 0.435 0.679 2.844 0.209 0.820 8 608192 1851 1979 129 0.996 0.512 0.812 2.994 0.217 0.841 9 608201 1849 1979 131 1.067 0.495 1.417 6.075 0.196 0.859 10 608202 1883 1979 97 1.000 0.458 0.833 3.693 0.229 0.761 11 608211 1891 1979 89 1.000 0.287 -0.431 3.315 0.208 0.558 12 608212 1891 1979 89 1.000 0.304 -0.296 3.635 0.222 0.563 13 608221 1876 1979 104 0.985 0.268 0.383 3.198 0.182 0.680 14 608222 1890 1979 90 1.000 0.388 0.750 3.018 0.179 0.807 15 608231 1867 1979 113 0.995 0.324 0.248 2.525 0.171 0.767 16 608232 1796 1979 184 0.995 0.395 1.145 5.486 0.204 0.743 17 608241 1845 1979 135 0.989 0.368 1.297 5.533 0.190 0.804 18 608242 1836 1979 144 0.983 0.388 0.573 3.326 0.187 0.837 19 608251 1898 1979 82 0.999 0.305 1.012 4.399 0.161 0.752 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 608252 1885 1979 95 1.031 0.412 2.908 12.916 0.136 0.786 21 608261 1878 1979 102 0.999 0.250 -0.020 2.779 0.147 0.746 22 608262 1878 1979 102 0.999 0.191 0.075 2.724 0.132 0.604 23 608271 1884 1979 96 1.000 0.227 0.131 2.393 0.155 0.654 24 608272 1893 1979 87 1.000 0.236 0.845 4.840 0.155 0.631 25 608281 1893 1979 87 1.000 0.241 0.172 2.484 0.138 0.720 26 608282 1878 1979 102 1.000 0.334 0.248 2.858 0.168 0.779 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 107 1.003 0.336 0.532 3.948 0.182 0.731 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.018 0.085 0.714 2.116 0.027 0.086 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 99 1.000 0.330 0.462 3.320 0.186 0.749 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.004 0.126 0.770 1.620 0.037 0.131 MINIMUM VALUE 71 0.983 0.191 -0.474 2.393 0.132 0.558 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 0.996 0.264 0.075 2.779 0.161 0.654 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.390 0.845 4.399 0.198 0.786 MAXIMUM VALUE 184 1.067 0.512 2.908 12.916 0.229 0.859 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 608161 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 608162 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 608171 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 608172 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 608181 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 608182 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 608191 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 608192 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 608201 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 608202 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 608211 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 608212 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 608221 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 608222 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 608231 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 608232 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 608241 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 608242 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 608251 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 608252 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 608261 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 608262 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 608271 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 608272 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 608281 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 608282 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 608161 1885 1979 95 0.993 0.203 -0.454 4.323 0.172 0.446 2 608162 1886 1979 94 0.997 0.242 -0.533 4.557 0.198 0.547 3 608171 1909 1979 71 0.992 0.281 0.525 4.240 0.197 0.654 4 608172 1890 1979 90 0.994 0.257 0.281 2.886 0.197 0.568 5 608181 1857 1979 123 0.994 0.310 0.060 2.831 0.194 0.728 6 608182 1875 1979 105 0.993 0.268 -0.152 3.447 0.183 0.677 7 608191 1830 1979 150 0.990 0.370 0.386 2.616 0.208 0.739 8 608192 1851 1979 129 0.980 0.380 1.325 7.684 0.219 0.692 9 608201 1849 1979 131 0.987 0.345 0.150 2.305 0.195 0.765 10 608202 1883 1979 97 0.988 0.390 0.206 3.022 0.228 0.706 11 608211 1891 1979 89 0.996 0.271 -0.604 3.459 0.208 0.513 12 608212 1891 1979 89 0.995 0.285 -0.373 3.521 0.222 0.488 13 608221 1876 1979 104 0.998 0.247 0.275 2.918 0.182 0.624 14 608222 1890 1979 90 0.990 0.301 0.426 2.513 0.178 0.708 15 608231 1867 1979 113 0.995 0.283 0.115 2.586 0.171 0.664 16 608232 1796 1979 184 0.995 0.378 1.286 6.210 0.204 0.714 17 608241 1845 1979 135 0.992 0.276 0.447 3.564 0.191 0.644 18 608242 1836 1979 144 0.990 0.286 0.025 3.145 0.187 0.662 19 608251 1898 1979 82 0.995 0.217 0.346 2.644 0.161 0.595 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 608252 1885 1979 95 0.992 0.263 0.650 3.075 0.135 0.714 21 608261 1878 1979 102 0.996 0.193 -0.229 3.872 0.148 0.568 22 608262 1878 1979 102 0.998 0.175 0.210 3.423 0.132 0.529 23 608271 1884 1979 96 0.994 0.183 0.081 2.403 0.154 0.491 24 608272 1893 1979 87 0.997 0.154 -0.118 4.079 0.155 0.228 25 608281 1893 1979 87 0.998 0.161 -0.474 3.775 0.137 0.447 26 608282 1878 1979 102 0.983 0.236 -0.299 2.986 0.165 0.611 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 107 0.993 0.268 0.137 3.542 0.181 0.605 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.004 0.068 0.488 1.194 0.027 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 99 0.994 0.270 0.132 3.284 0.185 0.634 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.006 0.083 0.615 1.042 0.037 0.176 MINIMUM VALUE 71 0.980 0.154 -0.604 2.305 0.132 0.228 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 0.990 0.217 -0.229 2.831 0.161 0.529 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 0.996 0.301 0.386 3.872 0.198 0.706 MAXIMUM VALUE 184 0.998 0.390 1.325 7.684 0.228 0.765 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.325 0.182 0.010 -0.253 3.450 -0.269 0.827 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.269 SERIES 608171 AND 608231 71 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.827 SERIES 608171 AND 608172 71 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 10. 36. 300. 325. RBAR 0.194 0.363 0.303 0.328 SDEV 0.242 0.271 0.227 0.247 SERR 0.077 0.045 0.013 0.014 EPS 0.750 0.925 0.918 0.927 NSS 12.4 21.7 25.8 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1796 1979 184 0.969 0.279 0.781 6.168 0.194 0.591 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.247 0.118 0.079 51 133 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.61 1.00 1.07 1.68 5.68 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.94 0.00 0.00 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.588 0.503 0.341 0.236 0.166 0.087 -0.055 -0.069 -0.075 -0.142 PACF 0.588 0.240 -0.040 -0.041 0.004 -0.041 -0.179 0.011 0.060 -0.114 95% C.L. 0.147 0.192 0.219 0.230 0.235 0.238 0.238 0.239 0.239 0.240 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.440 0.479 0.245 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.492 0.373 0.135 0.036 -0.035 -0.138 -0.176 -0.188 -0.191 -0.336 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.492 2 0.408 0.172 3 0.432 0.228 -0.139 4 0.424 0.240 -0.115 -0.054 5 0.423 0.238 -0.111 -0.046 -0.019 6 0.421 0.233 -0.125 -0.016 0.034 -0.126 7 0.411 0.235 -0.126 -0.025 0.052 -0.093 -0.077 8 0.409 0.232 -0.124 -0.026 0.048 -0.086 -0.064 -0.030 9 0.407 0.229 -0.130 -0.023 0.047 -0.094 -0.050 -0.006 -0.060 10 0.390 0.227 -0.144 -0.050 0.060 -0.100 -0.087 0.059 0.055 -0.283 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1354.76 1305.66 1302.16 1300.59 1302.05 1303.99 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1303.06 1303.97 1305.80 1307.14 1293.76 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.432 0.228 -0.139 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 27.90 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 138.69 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.432 0.415 0.139 0.095 0.015 0.009 -0.006 -0.003 -0.004 -.0014 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 608161 3 0.212 0.455 0.019 -0.099 2 608162 3 0.352 0.505 0.240 -0.224 3 608171 3 0.447 0.656 0.107 -0.155 4 608172 3 0.353 0.507 0.156 -0.060 5 608181 3 0.572 0.691 0.165 -0.108 6 608182 3 0.469 0.641 0.122 -0.092 7 608191 3 0.590 0.694 0.127 -0.042 8 608192 3 0.514 0.666 0.178 -0.159 9 608201 3 0.600 0.670 0.205 -0.095 10 608202 3 0.524 0.621 0.201 -0.096 11 608211 3 0.300 0.515 0.027 -0.027 12 608212 3 0.251 0.456 0.045 0.054 13 608221 3 0.399 0.681 -0.062 -0.055 14 608222 3 0.564 0.650 0.306 -0.261 15 608231 3 0.490 0.638 0.193 -0.165 16 608232 3 0.578 0.749 0.026 -0.017 17 608241 3 0.447 0.534 0.257 -0.100 18 608242 3 0.493 0.568 0.224 -0.071 19 608251 3 0.372 0.586 0.100 -0.131 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 608252 3 0.557 0.766 0.089 -0.200 21 608261 3 0.380 0.402 0.224 0.084 22 608262 3 0.329 0.494 0.203 -0.167 23 608271 3 0.255 0.458 0.121 -0.074 24 608272 3 0.082 0.213 0.146 -0.096 25 608281 3 0.207 0.420 0.087 -0.045 26 608282 3 0.411 0.510 0.199 -0.021 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.413 0.567 0.143 -0.093 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.138 0.126 0.086 0.078 MEDIAN 3 0.429 0.577 0.151 -0.095 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.195 0.171 0.114 0.110 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.082 0.213 -0.062 -0.261 LOWER HINGE 3 0.329 0.494 0.089 -0.155 UPPER HINGE 3 0.524 0.666 0.203 -0.045 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.600 0.766 0.306 0.084 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 608161 1885 1979 95 1.000 0.180 -0.324 4.322 0.209 -0.006 2 608162 1886 1979 94 1.000 0.195 -0.507 6.092 0.232 -0.017 3 608171 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.208 -0.211 3.522 0.248 -0.004 4 608172 1890 1979 90 1.000 0.209 0.526 3.325 0.244 -0.011 5 608181 1857 1979 123 1.000 0.200 -0.364 4.293 0.241 -0.014 6 608182 1875 1979 105 1.000 0.196 -0.448 5.422 0.225 0.005 7 608191 1830 1979 150 1.000 0.233 0.160 3.821 0.265 -0.026 8 608192 1851 1979 129 1.000 0.265 1.161 10.576 0.266 0.009 9 608201 1849 1979 131 1.000 0.219 0.188 3.986 0.237 0.005 10 608202 1883 1979 97 1.003 0.258 -0.199 6.058 0.271 -0.004 11 608211 1891 1979 89 1.000 0.230 -1.163 6.128 0.257 -0.003 12 608212 1891 1979 89 1.000 0.246 -0.904 5.591 0.271 -0.004 13 608221 1876 1979 104 1.000 0.192 0.125 2.681 0.226 0.000 14 608222 1890 1979 90 1.000 0.200 -0.310 4.983 0.213 -0.020 15 608231 1867 1979 113 1.000 0.200 0.101 3.529 0.223 -0.027 16 608232 1796 1979 184 1.000 0.238 0.413 5.186 0.273 -0.049 17 608241 1845 1979 135 1.000 0.205 0.016 3.374 0.228 -0.002 18 608242 1836 1979 144 1.000 0.205 0.182 3.859 0.225 -0.005 19 608251 1898 1979 82 1.000 0.172 -0.089 3.841 0.198 -0.011 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 608252 1885 1979 95 1.000 0.175 -0.542 6.188 0.193 0.028 21 608261 1878 1979 102 1.000 0.152 -0.097 4.562 0.171 0.002 22 608262 1878 1979 102 1.000 0.143 -0.419 3.798 0.169 -0.019 23 608271 1884 1979 96 1.000 0.157 0.176 2.290 0.186 0.001 24 608272 1893 1979 87 1.000 0.148 -0.165 4.116 0.168 -0.009 25 608281 1893 1979 87 1.000 0.143 -0.832 4.956 0.167 -0.002 26 608282 1878 1979 102 1.000 0.180 -0.415 4.399 0.203 -0.011 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 107 1.000 0.198 -0.151 4.650 0.224 -0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.001 0.034 0.480 1.610 0.034 0.014 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 99 1.000 0.200 -0.182 4.307 0.226 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.000 0.044 0.579 1.625 0.050 0.014 MINIMUM VALUE 71 1.000 0.143 -1.163 2.290 0.167 -0.049 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.175 -0.419 3.798 0.198 -0.014 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.219 0.160 5.422 0.248 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 184 1.003 0.265 1.161 10.576 0.273 0.028 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.425 0.112 0.006 0.297 2.965 0.171 0.777 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.171 SERIES 608171 AND 608241 71 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.777 SERIES 608181 AND 608182 105 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 10. 36. 300. 325. RBAR 0.320 0.330 0.370 0.464 SDEV 0.185 0.153 0.142 0.158 SERR 0.059 0.025 0.008 0.009 EPS 0.854 0.915 0.938 0.957 NSS 12.4 21.7 25.8 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1796 1979 184 0.983 0.176 -0.315 4.669 0.216 -0.181 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.169 0.089 0.038 51 133 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.56 1.01 1.07 1.62 9.78 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.180 0.037 0.076 -0.053 -0.005 0.047 -0.115 -0.022 -0.002 -0.110 PACF -0.180 0.005 0.086 -0.025 -0.025 0.039 -0.097 -0.064 -0.018 -0.096 95% C.L. 0.147 0.152 0.152 0.153 0.154 0.154 0.154 0.156 0.156 0.156 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.035 -0.186 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.008 -0.008 -0.005 -0.020 -0.008 0.022 -0.104 -0.042 -0.022 -0.101 PACF 0.008 -0.008 -0.005 -0.020 -0.007 0.022 -0.105 -0.040 -0.023 -0.103 95% C.L. 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.148 0.148 0.148 0.149 0.149 0.150 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.001 0.009 -0.009 -0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1796 1979 184 0.984 0.204 0.063 3.604 0.166 0.491 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.488 0.358 0.111 0.038 -0.041 -0.063 -0.153 -0.151 -0.150 -0.183 PACF 0.488 0.157 -0.152 -0.021 -0.029 -0.029 -0.126 -0.036 -0.013 -0.114 95% C.L. 0.147 0.179 0.194 0.195 0.196 0.196 0.196 0.199 0.201 0.204 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.287 0.456 0.209 -0.159 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.50 MINUTES