RUN: SWIT004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT164E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT164E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 666 1 Berlincourt JU WIDTH_EARLY ABAL - 666 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 620 4719-713 1886 1982 - 666 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 24 666122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1978 1978 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 666011 1898 1982 85 0.712 0.359 0.834 3.107 0.267 0.771 2 666012 1913 1982 70 1.075 0.477 0.437 2.252 0.271 0.723 3 666021 1894 1982 89 1.232 0.587 0.077 2.413 0.229 0.779 4 666022 1905 1982 78 0.993 0.568 0.364 2.073 0.244 0.856 5 666031 1906 1982 77 1.311 0.503 0.178 2.685 0.201 0.765 6 666032 1893 1982 90 1.390 0.496 1.199 5.568 0.183 0.789 7 666041 1886 1982 97 1.259 0.682 2.314 9.094 0.219 0.745 8 666042 1897 1982 86 1.441 0.744 1.352 5.508 0.235 0.764 9 666051 1888 1982 95 0.930 0.496 0.271 2.410 0.240 0.821 10 666052 1907 1982 76 0.927 0.493 0.611 3.431 0.226 0.765 11 666061 1920 1982 63 1.807 0.775 0.390 3.895 0.199 0.732 12 666062 1905 1982 78 1.599 0.772 0.441 3.690 0.182 0.810 13 666071 1909 1982 74 1.614 0.621 0.708 3.086 0.237 0.698 14 666072 1895 1982 88 1.516 0.564 1.001 3.437 0.209 0.732 15 666081 1905 1982 78 1.867 0.682 0.872 2.921 0.204 0.763 16 666082 1910 1982 73 1.904 1.031 2.004 7.821 0.223 0.712 17 666091 1900 1982 83 2.041 0.523 -0.201 2.813 0.218 0.561 18 666092 1891 1982 92 1.438 0.597 0.613 3.085 0.258 0.690 19 666101 1910 1982 73 2.508 0.814 0.444 2.484 0.214 0.653 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 666102 1925 1982 58 3.273 1.331 1.086 3.885 0.247 0.635 21 666111 1902 1982 81 1.802 0.541 -0.002 2.175 0.198 0.678 22 666112 1901 1982 82 2.169 0.916 0.768 3.330 0.192 0.763 23 666121 1944 1982 39 0.868 0.295 1.083 4.124 0.230 0.677 24 666122 1905 1982 78 0.925 0.498 0.576 2.613 0.264 0.794 25 666131 1908 1982 75 1.130 0.617 1.210 4.657 0.256 0.792 26 666132 1888 1982 95 1.538 0.912 0.752 3.212 0.273 0.834 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1886 TO 1982 97 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 79 1.510 0.650 0.745 3.684 0.228 0.742 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.572 0.221 0.573 1.686 0.027 0.067 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 78 1.439 0.592 0.661 3.160 0.227 0.763 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 14 0.732 0.274 0.693 1.282 0.043 0.091 MINIMUM VALUE 39 0.712 0.295 -0.201 2.073 0.182 0.561 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 74 1.075 0.498 0.390 2.613 0.204 0.698 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 88 1.807 0.772 1.083 3.895 0.247 0.789 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 3.273 1.331 2.314 9.094 0.273 0.856 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.228 0.305 0.017 -0.347 2.394 -0.545 0.888 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.545 SERIES 666061 AND 666082 63 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.888 SERIES 666021 AND 666022 78 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 45. 231. 276. 300. 300. 325. 325. RBAR 0.052 0.223 0.337 0.482 0.348 0.114 0.245 SDEV 0.469 0.328 0.320 0.280 0.389 0.389 0.520 SERR 0.070 0.022 0.019 0.016 0.022 0.022 0.029 EPS 0.505 0.871 0.926 0.959 0.932 0.770 0.894 NSS 18.7 23.6 24.8 25.3 25.8 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1886 1982 97 1.476 0.375 0.597 3.470 0.148 0.664 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.157 0.117 0.535 48 49 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.55 0.70 1.00 1.20 1.90 3.42 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 78. 14. 39. 74. 88. 97. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.657 0.513 0.430 0.404 0.385 0.362 0.346 0.319 0.307 0.265 PACF 0.657 0.144 0.085 0.112 0.082 0.052 0.052 0.021 0.038 -0.026 95% C.L. 0.203 0.277 0.314 0.337 0.357 0.374 0.388 0.400 0.411 0.420 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.515 0.580 0.176 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 666011 1 1.20459962 0.09549472 0.00000000 0.57108533 2 666012 1 1.04170442 0.12871602 0.00000000 0.96639466 3 666021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01591164 1.94804645 4 666022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02214203 1.86807191 5 666031 1 0.84381819 0.02786271 0.00000000 0.96805835 6 666032 1 1.20666838 0.10716063 0.00000000 1.27158988 7 666041 1 1.54999256 0.02560025 0.00000000 0.69409204 8 666042 1 2.47876000 0.06388676 0.00000000 1.00548744 9 666051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00899846 1.36171556 10 666052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01301832 1.42817891 11 666061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02374088 2.56653357 12 666062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02464105 2.57242417 13 666071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00595868 1.39060342 14 666072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00218837 1.41829944 15 666081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01376080 1.32324338 16 666082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02296248 1.05394983 17 666091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00106041 1.99642670 18 666092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00892013 1.85315573 19 666101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01166327 2.93962336 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 666102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03470085 4.29626131 21 666111 1 0.62823969 0.03914491 0.00000000 1.61547959 22 666112 1 3.79019642 0.31383222 0.00000000 2.04376864 23 666121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00927733 1.05375171 24 666122 1 1.44330382 0.03749344 0.00000000 0.45978111 25 666131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00991351 1.50631356 26 666132 1 3.07866335 0.07549679 0.00000000 1.12465155 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 666011 1898 1982 85 1.000 0.397 0.402 2.857 0.263 0.588 2 666012 1913 1982 70 0.999 0.431 0.897 3.355 0.267 0.688 3 666021 1894 1982 89 0.977 0.356 0.504 2.903 0.225 0.619 4 666022 1905 1982 78 1.010 0.289 0.739 5.345 0.242 0.325 5 666031 1906 1982 77 1.000 0.363 0.176 2.467 0.198 0.720 6 666032 1893 1982 90 1.000 0.306 0.221 2.635 0.182 0.709 7 666041 1886 1982 97 1.001 0.375 1.362 5.989 0.216 0.673 8 666042 1897 1982 86 1.000 0.361 0.427 4.350 0.233 0.650 9 666051 1888 1982 95 0.978 0.474 0.929 4.033 0.237 0.796 10 666052 1907 1982 76 0.975 0.446 0.880 3.492 0.222 0.738 11 666061 1920 1982 63 0.987 0.378 1.409 6.193 0.194 0.683 12 666062 1905 1982 78 0.982 0.365 1.333 4.541 0.179 0.759 13 666071 1909 1982 74 1.000 0.382 0.914 3.666 0.234 0.680 14 666072 1895 1982 88 1.000 0.369 0.974 3.417 0.207 0.723 15 666081 1905 1982 78 1.002 0.305 0.108 2.414 0.202 0.656 16 666082 1910 1982 73 1.013 0.428 0.643 3.851 0.221 0.634 17 666091 1900 1982 83 1.000 0.255 -0.250 2.764 0.215 0.552 18 666092 1891 1982 92 0.999 0.373 0.542 3.903 0.254 0.655 19 666101 1910 1982 73 1.000 0.301 0.074 2.124 0.211 0.612 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 666102 1925 1982 58 0.998 0.358 1.026 3.644 0.242 0.565 21 666111 1902 1982 81 1.000 0.288 0.029 2.615 0.196 0.646 22 666112 1901 1982 82 1.000 0.389 0.670 3.150 0.186 0.783 23 666121 1944 1982 39 0.999 0.300 0.493 3.130 0.224 0.575 24 666122 1905 1982 78 1.000 0.448 1.218 4.864 0.266 0.670 25 666131 1908 1982 75 0.997 0.486 0.841 3.104 0.252 0.790 26 666132 1888 1982 95 1.000 0.481 0.306 2.680 0.268 0.783 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 79 0.997 0.373 0.649 3.596 0.224 0.664 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.009 0.064 0.445 1.077 0.027 0.099 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 78 1.000 0.371 0.657 3.386 0.223 0.671 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 14 0.002 0.122 0.622 1.269 0.040 0.103 MINIMUM VALUE 39 0.975 0.255 -0.250 2.124 0.179 0.325 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 74 0.998 0.306 0.306 2.764 0.202 0.619 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.428 0.929 4.033 0.242 0.723 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 1.013 0.486 1.409 6.193 0.268 0.796 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 666011 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 666012 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 666021 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 666022 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 666031 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 666032 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 666041 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 666042 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 666051 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 666052 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 666061 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 666062 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 666071 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 666072 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 666081 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 666082 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 666091 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 666092 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 666101 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 666102 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 666111 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 666112 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 666121 -67 26 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 666122 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 666131 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 666132 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 666011 1898 1982 85 0.995 0.381 0.526 3.142 0.263 0.547 2 666012 1913 1982 70 0.993 0.325 0.646 3.773 0.267 0.405 3 666021 1894 1982 89 0.993 0.268 0.412 2.865 0.222 0.428 4 666022 1905 1982 78 0.998 0.264 0.189 3.764 0.242 0.278 5 666031 1906 1982 77 0.984 0.293 0.750 3.243 0.200 0.597 6 666032 1893 1982 90 0.995 0.275 0.180 2.738 0.181 0.650 7 666041 1886 1982 97 0.992 0.328 1.171 6.182 0.215 0.603 8 666042 1897 1982 86 0.989 0.287 0.739 4.032 0.229 0.477 9 666051 1888 1982 95 0.996 0.295 0.026 3.629 0.237 0.529 10 666052 1907 1982 76 0.991 0.314 0.802 3.067 0.224 0.492 11 666061 1920 1982 63 0.997 0.240 1.424 6.229 0.189 0.293 12 666062 1905 1982 78 0.992 0.258 1.075 4.176 0.178 0.568 13 666071 1909 1982 74 0.988 0.301 0.464 2.984 0.232 0.569 14 666072 1895 1982 88 0.982 0.266 0.709 3.311 0.207 0.538 15 666081 1905 1982 78 0.992 0.259 0.328 2.904 0.201 0.561 16 666082 1910 1982 73 0.976 0.275 1.201 4.848 0.218 0.369 17 666091 1900 1982 83 0.997 0.239 -0.072 2.957 0.215 0.477 18 666092 1891 1982 92 0.990 0.325 0.296 3.409 0.253 0.560 19 666101 1910 1982 73 0.995 0.275 0.116 2.677 0.211 0.525 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 666102 1925 1982 58 0.996 0.334 1.048 3.794 0.240 0.491 21 666111 1902 1982 81 0.992 0.234 -0.105 2.972 0.194 0.506 22 666112 1901 1982 82 0.985 0.261 0.524 3.409 0.183 0.631 23 666121 1944 1982 39 0.995 0.260 0.090 2.595 0.224 0.459 24 666122 1905 1982 78 0.987 0.387 0.770 4.026 0.268 0.600 25 666131 1908 1982 75 0.975 0.356 0.439 2.591 0.248 0.626 26 666132 1888 1982 95 0.973 0.374 -0.009 2.543 0.266 0.678 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 79 0.990 0.295 0.528 3.533 0.223 0.518 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.007 0.044 0.426 0.970 0.027 0.102 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 78 0.992 0.281 0.494 3.277 0.223 0.533 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 14 0.008 0.064 0.590 0.891 0.041 0.120 MINIMUM VALUE 39 0.973 0.234 -0.105 2.543 0.178 0.278 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 74 0.987 0.261 0.180 2.904 0.201 0.477 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 88 0.995 0.325 0.770 3.794 0.242 0.597 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 0.998 0.387 1.424 6.229 0.268 0.678 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.281 0.202 0.011 0.024 2.552 -0.305 0.725 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.305 SERIES 666052 AND 666112 76 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.725 SERIES 666091 AND 666092 83 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 45. 231. 276. 300. 300. 325. 325. RBAR 0.055 0.251 0.409 0.452 0.311 0.197 0.328 SDEV 0.362 0.316 0.273 0.309 0.381 0.341 0.314 SERR 0.054 0.021 0.016 0.018 0.022 0.019 0.017 EPS 0.520 0.888 0.945 0.954 0.921 0.865 0.927 NSS 18.7 23.6 24.8 25.3 25.8 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1886 1982 97 0.989 0.164 0.212 3.446 0.146 0.391 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.304 0.153 0.089 37 60 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.44 1.00 1.08 1.52 13.18 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.387 0.203 0.092 -0.055 -0.056 -0.107 -0.102 -0.090 0.016 -0.112 PACF 0.387 0.063 -0.007 -0.117 -0.006 -0.073 -0.029 -0.034 0.091 -0.171 95% C.L. 0.203 0.231 0.239 0.240 0.241 0.241 0.243 0.245 0.246 0.246 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.157 0.392 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.415 0.267 0.085 -0.011 -0.024 -0.108 -0.119 -0.163 -0.044 -0.152 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.415 2 0.368 0.114 3 0.376 0.141 -0.074 4 0.372 0.150 -0.051 -0.061 5 0.372 0.151 -0.053 -0.065 0.008 6 0.373 0.144 -0.058 -0.050 0.045 -0.097 7 0.368 0.147 -0.060 -0.053 0.052 -0.077 -0.054 8 0.363 0.140 -0.056 -0.057 0.047 -0.065 -0.023 -0.084 9 0.371 0.142 -0.050 -0.062 0.052 -0.060 -0.036 -0.116 0.090 10 0.385 0.123 -0.056 -0.071 0.061 -0.070 -0.044 -0.093 0.150 -0.162 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 699.27 682.90 683.63 685.09 686.73 688.72 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 689.79 691.51 692.83 694.04 693.46 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.415 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 17.25 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 120.85 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.415 0.172 0.072 0.030 0.012 0.005 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 666011 1 0.301 0.548 2 666012 1 0.179 0.406 3 666021 1 0.214 0.430 4 666022 1 0.098 0.303 5 666031 1 0.360 0.599 6 666032 1 0.441 0.663 7 666041 1 0.388 0.606 8 666042 1 0.276 0.480 9 666051 1 0.302 0.537 10 666052 1 0.316 0.526 11 666061 1 0.134 0.316 12 666062 1 0.335 0.571 13 666071 1 0.352 0.574 14 666072 1 0.347 0.544 15 666081 1 0.340 0.562 16 666082 1 0.178 0.370 17 666091 1 0.258 0.478 18 666092 1 0.327 0.560 19 666101 1 0.314 0.560 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 666102 1 0.267 0.516 21 666111 1 0.267 0.516 22 666112 1 0.405 0.635 23 666121 1 0.224 0.467 24 666122 1 0.376 0.609 25 666131 1 0.399 0.631 26 666132 1 0.501 0.679 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.304 0.526 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.094 0.099 MEDIAN 1 0.315 0.546 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.102 0.121 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.098 0.303 LOWER HINGE 1 0.258 0.478 UPPER HINGE 1 0.360 0.599 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.501 0.679 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 666011 1898 1982 85 1.000 0.319 1.131 5.399 0.311 0.013 2 666012 1913 1982 70 1.000 0.297 0.592 4.214 0.305 0.053 3 666021 1894 1982 89 1.000 0.241 0.444 3.163 0.268 -0.083 4 666022 1905 1982 78 1.000 0.251 0.252 3.689 0.264 0.029 5 666031 1906 1982 77 1.000 0.235 0.976 4.209 0.255 -0.025 6 666032 1893 1982 90 1.000 0.205 0.114 2.856 0.230 -0.035 7 666041 1886 1982 97 1.000 0.260 1.221 6.001 0.263 -0.114 8 666042 1897 1982 86 1.000 0.252 0.921 4.245 0.280 -0.114 9 666051 1888 1982 95 1.000 0.249 0.108 3.137 0.281 -0.066 10 666052 1907 1982 76 1.000 0.264 0.890 3.508 0.273 -0.128 11 666061 1920 1982 63 1.000 0.228 1.249 5.723 0.225 -0.034 12 666062 1905 1982 78 1.000 0.212 0.771 4.344 0.242 -0.059 13 666071 1909 1982 74 1.000 0.246 0.416 4.071 0.298 -0.103 14 666072 1895 1982 88 1.000 0.223 0.999 4.976 0.257 -0.149 15 666081 1905 1982 78 1.000 0.215 0.241 2.675 0.252 -0.104 16 666082 1910 1982 73 1.000 0.255 1.681 7.191 0.251 -0.080 17 666091 1900 1982 83 1.000 0.210 -0.042 2.574 0.258 -0.092 18 666092 1891 1982 92 1.000 0.269 0.220 3.215 0.309 -0.077 19 666101 1910 1982 73 1.000 0.225 0.040 2.611 0.260 -0.031 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 666102 1925 1982 58 1.000 0.285 1.371 4.423 0.287 0.026 21 666111 1902 1982 81 1.000 0.200 -0.286 2.945 0.236 -0.013 22 666112 1901 1982 82 1.000 0.202 0.128 2.937 0.235 -0.026 23 666121 1944 1982 39 1.000 0.230 0.189 2.406 0.268 0.042 24 666122 1905 1982 78 1.000 0.305 0.572 4.130 0.335 -0.060 25 666131 1908 1982 75 1.000 0.276 0.638 4.058 0.307 0.023 26 666132 1888 1982 95 1.000 0.274 0.487 3.522 0.328 -0.185 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 79 1.000 0.247 0.589 3.932 0.272 -0.053 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.000 0.033 0.499 1.181 0.030 0.062 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 78 1.000 0.247 0.529 3.873 0.266 -0.059 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 14 0.000 0.046 0.787 1.399 0.046 0.090 MINIMUM VALUE 39 1.000 0.200 -0.286 2.406 0.225 -0.185 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 74 1.000 0.223 0.189 2.945 0.252 -0.103 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.269 0.976 4.344 0.298 -0.013 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 1.000 0.319 1.681 7.191 0.335 0.053 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.341 0.202 0.011 -0.083 2.210 -0.158 0.739 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.158 SERIES 666031 AND 666102 58 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.739 SERIES 666091 AND 666092 83 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 45. 231. 276. 300. 300. 325. 325. RBAR 0.138 0.325 0.487 0.481 0.336 0.269 0.330 SDEV 0.318 0.313 0.277 0.274 0.280 0.249 0.269 SERR 0.047 0.021 0.017 0.016 0.016 0.014 0.015 EPS 0.749 0.919 0.959 0.959 0.929 0.905 0.928 NSS 18.7 23.6 24.8 25.3 25.8 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1886 1982 97 0.993 0.148 0.268 4.067 0.178 -0.176 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.285 0.153 0.038 37 60 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.44 1.02 1.10 1.54 12.19 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.174 0.041 0.004 -0.095 0.010 -0.082 -0.006 -0.102 0.139 -0.122 PACF -0.174 0.011 0.013 -0.096 -0.024 -0.082 -0.035 -0.120 0.105 -0.100 95% C.L. 0.203 0.209 0.209 0.209 0.211 0.211 0.213 0.213 0.215 0.218 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.031 -0.176 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.011 -0.004 -0.099 -0.022 -0.089 -0.037 -0.082 0.110 -0.101 PACF 0.001 0.011 -0.004 -0.099 -0.022 -0.088 -0.038 -0.093 0.107 -0.123 95% C.L. 0.203 0.203 0.203 0.203 0.205 0.205 0.207 0.207 0.208 0.211 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1886 1982 97 0.991 0.160 0.198 3.410 0.135 0.408 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.404 0.156 0.020 -0.100 -0.101 -0.140 -0.097 -0.073 0.035 -0.070 PACF 0.404 -0.009 -0.047 -0.109 -0.019 -0.091 -0.007 -0.035 0.086 -0.159 95% C.L. 0.203 0.234 0.238 0.238 0.240 0.242 0.245 0.247 0.247 0.248 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.168 0.409 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.82 MINUTES