RUN: SWIT003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT166E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT166E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 753 1 Simmental,St.Stephan,Gyr WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 753 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1900 4631-724 1690 1986 - 753 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 753022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1821 1821 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 753132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 1 GAPS / 1954 1962 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 753011 1843 1986 144 1.234 0.323 0.546 3.503 0.160 0.696 2 753012 1841 1986 146 1.204 0.403 0.881 3.302 0.183 0.780 3 753021 1757 1986 230 0.736 0.253 0.578 3.274 0.215 0.686 4 753022 1758 1986 229 0.521 0.246 0.536 3.656 0.267 0.756 5 753031 1728 1986 259 0.712 0.282 0.658 2.528 0.194 0.807 6 753032 1690 1986 297 0.545 0.250 1.237 4.070 0.220 0.837 7 753041 1774 1986 213 0.920 0.393 1.432 4.746 0.166 0.845 8 753042 1761 1986 226 0.958 0.448 1.315 4.005 0.161 0.888 9 753051 1841 1986 146 0.905 0.426 2.075 7.501 0.179 0.881 10 753052 1826 1986 161 0.730 0.379 1.028 3.320 0.207 0.853 11 753061 1834 1986 153 1.215 0.401 0.176 2.295 0.153 0.840 12 753062 1835 1986 152 1.251 0.399 0.386 2.521 0.161 0.800 13 753071 1846 1986 141 0.359 0.098 0.376 3.142 0.210 0.542 14 753072 1795 1986 192 1.116 0.475 -0.234 2.225 0.158 0.898 15 753081 1795 1986 192 0.995 0.387 0.585 3.338 0.170 0.846 16 753082 1828 1986 159 0.678 0.305 0.397 2.190 0.234 0.820 17 753091 1716 1986 271 0.799 0.527 1.753 6.083 0.210 0.920 18 753092 1723 1986 264 0.816 0.484 1.584 6.287 0.189 0.902 19 753101 1795 1986 192 0.976 0.247 0.359 2.929 0.182 0.602 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 753102 1800 1986 187 0.887 0.390 0.266 2.197 0.211 0.830 21 753111 1774 1986 213 0.752 0.361 0.534 2.950 0.246 0.825 22 753112 1777 1986 210 0.669 0.277 0.797 3.884 0.280 0.680 23 753121 1753 1986 234 0.840 0.295 1.529 5.969 0.147 0.854 24 753122 1746 1986 241 0.708 0.296 1.317 4.483 0.142 0.897 25 753131 1692 1986 295 0.740 0.407 2.296 10.688 0.180 0.910 26 753132 1762 1986 225 0.946 0.503 1.726 6.605 0.186 0.911 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1690 TO 1986 297 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 206 0.854 0.356 0.928 4.142 0.193 0.812 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.228 0.099 0.642 1.997 0.036 0.098 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 0.828 0.383 0.727 3.421 0.184 0.838 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.264 0.125 1.035 1.818 0.050 0.109 MINIMUM VALUE 141 0.359 0.098 -0.234 2.190 0.142 0.542 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 0.712 0.282 0.397 2.929 0.161 0.780 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 234 0.976 0.407 1.432 4.746 0.211 0.888 MAXIMUM VALUE 297 1.251 0.527 2.296 10.688 0.280 0.920 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.435 0.229 0.013 -0.354 2.608 -0.182 0.894 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.182 SERIES 753061 AND 753131 153 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.894 SERIES 753091 AND 753092 264 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 15. 78. 153. 153. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR -0.037 0.071 0.287 0.336 0.427 0.295 0.472 0.437 0.326 SDEV 0.639 0.440 0.339 0.294 0.229 0.305 0.282 0.234 0.254 SERR 0.261 0.114 0.038 0.024 0.019 0.017 0.016 0.013 0.014 EPS -0.352 0.476 0.867 0.910 0.947 0.916 0.959 0.953 0.926 NSS 7.2 12.0 16.3 20.1 24.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1986 297 0.813 0.271 0.276 3.141 0.141 0.839 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.696 0.587 -0.121 66 231 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.42 1.01 1.07 1.48 4.46 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.98 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 212. 75. 141. 159. 234. 297. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.837 0.802 0.798 0.752 0.695 0.663 0.630 0.598 0.544 0.516 PACF 0.837 0.340 0.267 0.023 -0.090 -0.034 -0.003 0.030 -0.077 -0.002 95% C.L. 0.116 0.180 0.223 0.258 0.286 0.308 0.327 0.343 0.357 0.368 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.758 0.456 0.190 0.277 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 753011 1 0.72573256 0.01037938 0.00000000 0.85887969 2 753012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00454768 1.53781581 3 753021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00146747 0.90510160 4 753022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00153163 0.69606352 5 753031 1 0.73461372 0.01612699 0.00000000 0.54023349 6 753032 1 0.66772276 0.00245021 0.00000000 0.07082441 7 753041 1 1.08609390 0.01114924 0.00000000 0.50780302 8 753042 1 1.14928162 0.00960795 0.00000000 0.49180052 9 753051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00296542 1.12261593 10 753052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00597636 1.21371269 11 753061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00533516 1.62610161 12 753062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00526080 1.65389860 13 753071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00028670 0.37943363 14 753072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00690904 1.78318119 15 753081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00288488 1.27375543 16 753082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00422230 1.01627421 17 753091 1 1.66070652 0.01404908 0.00000000 0.37503690 18 753092 1 2.14438891 0.06136973 0.00000000 0.68723565 19 753101 1 0.51821518 0.00529508 0.00000000 0.65172660 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 753102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00458502 1.31842506 21 753111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00459353 1.24376166 22 753112 1 0.83518296 0.00621038 0.00000000 0.20365624 23 753121 1 0.77498126 0.00531986 0.00000000 0.39829686 24 753122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00258974 1.02153325 25 753131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000695 0.74055415 26 753132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00348932 1.32858908 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 753011 1843 1986 144 1.000 0.226 0.294 3.430 0.159 0.575 2 753012 1841 1986 146 1.000 0.282 0.422 2.616 0.182 0.683 3 753021 1757 1986 230 0.999 0.306 0.237 3.046 0.214 0.598 4 753022 1758 1986 229 0.992 0.423 0.405 3.696 0.271 0.676 5 753031 1728 1986 259 1.000 0.335 1.667 6.925 0.194 0.713 6 753032 1690 1986 297 1.001 0.396 0.731 2.996 0.220 0.762 7 753041 1774 1986 213 1.001 0.275 0.637 3.986 0.166 0.693 8 753042 1761 1986 226 1.001 0.330 0.536 2.430 0.160 0.802 9 753051 1841 1986 146 0.997 0.428 2.014 7.507 0.178 0.851 10 753052 1826 1986 161 1.029 0.392 0.999 4.193 0.207 0.725 11 753061 1834 1986 153 0.995 0.256 0.079 2.467 0.152 0.692 12 753062 1835 1986 152 0.997 0.245 -0.024 2.697 0.160 0.644 13 753071 1846 1986 141 1.000 0.268 0.239 3.126 0.209 0.527 14 753072 1795 1986 192 0.985 0.282 0.359 3.110 0.157 0.763 15 753081 1795 1986 192 0.999 0.359 0.698 3.498 0.170 0.805 16 753082 1828 1986 159 1.003 0.359 0.381 2.853 0.232 0.659 17 753091 1716 1986 271 0.996 0.335 0.534 3.400 0.209 0.690 18 753092 1723 1986 264 1.001 0.431 0.033 1.993 0.189 0.857 19 753101 1795 1986 192 1.000 0.231 0.151 3.072 0.181 0.499 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 753102 1800 1986 187 0.990 0.347 0.862 3.332 0.210 0.707 21 753111 1774 1986 213 0.995 0.287 0.113 3.363 0.245 0.530 22 753112 1777 1986 210 1.000 0.310 0.082 3.416 0.279 0.473 23 753121 1753 1986 234 1.000 0.276 0.997 4.594 0.146 0.777 24 753122 1746 1986 241 1.004 0.314 0.853 3.232 0.141 0.824 25 753131 1692 1986 295 1.000 0.550 2.294 10.681 0.179 0.907 26 753132 1762 1986 225 1.004 0.441 1.021 3.997 0.183 0.856 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 207 1.000 0.334 0.639 3.833 0.192 0.703 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.007 0.077 0.595 1.856 0.036 0.118 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.322 0.478 3.347 0.182 0.700 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.003 0.115 0.625 0.990 0.050 0.158 MINIMUM VALUE 141 0.985 0.226 -0.024 1.993 0.141 0.473 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 0.997 0.276 0.237 2.996 0.160 0.644 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 234 1.001 0.392 0.862 3.986 0.210 0.802 MAXIMUM VALUE 297 1.029 0.550 2.294 10.681 0.279 0.907 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 753011 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 753012 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 753021 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 753022 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 753031 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 753032 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 753041 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 753042 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 753051 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 753052 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 753061 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 753062 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 753071 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 753072 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 753081 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 753082 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 753091 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 753092 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 753101 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 753102 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 753111 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 753112 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 753121 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 753122 -67 161 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 753131 -67 197 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 753132 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 753011 1843 1986 144 0.997 0.200 0.059 3.399 0.159 0.449 2 753012 1841 1986 146 0.991 0.211 0.239 2.718 0.181 0.421 3 753021 1757 1986 230 0.997 0.294 0.193 3.081 0.214 0.566 4 753022 1758 1986 229 0.990 0.362 0.432 3.425 0.271 0.542 5 753031 1728 1986 259 0.994 0.290 1.158 5.074 0.194 0.629 6 753032 1690 1986 297 0.988 0.333 0.466 2.595 0.220 0.668 7 753041 1774 1986 213 0.997 0.246 0.494 4.076 0.166 0.631 8 753042 1761 1986 226 0.992 0.256 0.389 2.833 0.160 0.690 9 753051 1841 1986 146 0.990 0.294 0.961 4.673 0.177 0.702 10 753052 1826 1986 161 0.989 0.257 0.541 3.285 0.205 0.454 11 753061 1834 1986 153 0.996 0.197 0.449 3.125 0.152 0.444 12 753062 1835 1986 152 0.996 0.202 -0.093 2.675 0.159 0.472 13 753071 1846 1986 141 0.996 0.226 -0.276 3.547 0.209 0.308 14 753072 1795 1986 192 0.997 0.249 0.598 3.489 0.157 0.670 15 753081 1795 1986 192 0.985 0.262 0.416 3.377 0.170 0.636 16 753082 1828 1986 159 0.985 0.269 0.200 3.099 0.232 0.425 17 753091 1716 1986 271 0.996 0.291 0.382 3.315 0.209 0.590 18 753092 1723 1986 264 0.999 0.280 0.004 3.692 0.189 0.643 19 753101 1795 1986 192 0.999 0.226 0.164 3.194 0.181 0.474 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 753102 1800 1986 187 0.993 0.274 0.379 3.054 0.210 0.479 21 753111 1774 1986 213 0.997 0.271 -0.065 3.158 0.245 0.457 22 753112 1777 1986 210 0.999 0.302 -0.074 3.194 0.279 0.445 23 753121 1753 1986 234 0.995 0.227 0.737 4.563 0.146 0.679 24 753122 1746 1986 241 0.990 0.222 0.546 3.930 0.141 0.670 25 753131 1692 1986 295 0.978 0.350 1.516 7.815 0.180 0.802 26 753132 1762 1986 225 0.985 0.362 1.018 4.347 0.183 0.802 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 207 0.993 0.267 0.417 3.644 0.192 0.567 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.005 0.048 0.415 1.058 0.036 0.128 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 0.994 0.266 0.403 3.346 0.182 0.578 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.007 0.068 0.381 0.830 0.050 0.216 MINIMUM VALUE 141 0.978 0.197 -0.276 2.595 0.141 0.308 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 0.990 0.226 0.164 3.099 0.160 0.454 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 234 0.997 0.294 0.546 3.930 0.210 0.670 MAXIMUM VALUE 297 0.999 0.362 1.516 7.815 0.279 0.802 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.343 0.139 0.008 0.135 3.144 -0.034 0.808 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.034 SERIES 753031 AND 753052 161 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.808 SERIES 753011 AND 753012 144 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 15. 78. 153. 153. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.039 0.109 0.299 0.307 0.394 0.376 0.386 0.428 0.433 SDEV 0.439 0.364 0.310 0.248 0.240 0.263 0.233 0.174 0.179 SERR 0.179 0.094 0.035 0.020 0.019 0.015 0.013 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.225 0.596 0.874 0.899 0.940 0.940 0.942 0.951 0.952 NSS 7.2 12.0 16.3 20.1 24.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1986 297 0.978 0.181 0.224 2.954 0.138 0.517 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.237 0.144 0.094 81 216 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.30 1.01 1.06 1.36 32.86 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.11 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.515 0.452 0.431 0.405 0.318 0.286 0.211 0.174 0.136 0.071 PACF 0.515 0.254 0.184 0.124 -0.010 0.008 -0.062 -0.032 -0.023 -0.068 95% C.L. 0.116 0.144 0.162 0.176 0.189 0.196 0.201 0.204 0.206 0.207 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.349 0.314 0.160 0.144 0.126 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.385 0.359 0.332 0.352 0.207 0.187 0.107 0.112 0.105 0.070 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.385 2 0.289 0.248 3 0.248 0.200 0.166 4 0.219 0.165 0.124 0.172 5 0.228 0.171 0.131 0.183 -0.048 6 0.227 0.174 0.133 0.185 -0.045 -0.014 7 0.226 0.170 0.148 0.196 -0.031 0.003 -0.078 8 0.225 0.170 0.148 0.197 -0.030 0.004 -0.077 -0.006 9 0.226 0.174 0.147 0.198 -0.038 -0.002 -0.084 -0.016 0.043 10 0.226 0.174 0.148 0.198 -0.038 -0.002 -0.084 -0.016 0.042 0.000 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2399.36 2353.82 2337.00 2330.67 2323.70 2325.02 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2326.95 2327.14 2329.12 2330.59 2332.59 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.219 0.165 0.124 0.172 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 24.55 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 132.54 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.219 0.213 0.207 0.280 0.160 0.144 0.128 0.120 0.093 0.0808 0.070 0.061 0.051 0.044 0.038 0.032 0.027 0.024 0.020 0.0173 0.015 0.013 0.011 0.009 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.0036 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0008 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 753011 4 0.242 0.365 0.169 0.035 0.018 2 753012 4 0.231 0.321 0.128 0.166 -0.015 3 753021 4 0.380 0.429 0.200 -0.018 0.098 4 753022 4 0.369 0.385 0.260 -0.029 0.096 5 753031 4 0.479 0.359 0.185 0.166 0.104 6 753032 4 0.529 0.379 0.249 0.104 0.101 7 753041 4 0.463 0.425 0.213 0.060 0.081 8 753042 4 0.543 0.431 0.169 0.102 0.138 9 753051 4 0.515 0.667 0.130 -0.148 0.075 10 753052 4 0.217 0.464 0.023 -0.076 0.038 11 753061 4 0.216 0.406 0.114 -0.062 0.046 12 753062 4 0.236 0.481 -0.032 0.059 -0.031 13 753071 4 0.162 0.221 0.193 0.011 0.136 14 753072 4 0.477 0.531 0.097 0.141 -0.004 15 753081 4 0.460 0.452 0.173 0.089 0.059 16 753082 4 0.290 0.239 0.260 0.123 0.058 17 753091 4 0.425 0.368 0.154 0.195 0.059 18 753092 4 0.487 0.421 0.212 0.095 0.068 19 753101 4 0.260 0.406 0.083 0.045 0.089 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 753102 4 0.279 0.364 0.093 0.157 0.048 21 753111 4 0.274 0.320 0.201 0.024 0.120 22 753112 4 0.229 0.361 0.126 0.059 0.043 23 753121 4 0.512 0.461 0.179 0.085 0.086 24 753122 4 0.513 0.422 0.238 0.058 0.096 25 753131 4 0.665 0.681 0.219 -0.117 0.054 26 753132 4 0.673 0.629 0.228 0.120 -0.149 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.389 0.423 0.164 0.056 0.058 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.147 0.110 0.072 0.089 0.060 MEDIAN 4 0.402 0.413 0.176 0.059 0.064 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.271 0.097 0.087 0.109 0.053 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.162 0.221 -0.032 -0.148 -0.149 LOWER HINGE 4 0.242 0.364 0.126 0.011 0.043 UPPER HINGE 4 0.512 0.461 0.213 0.120 0.096 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.673 0.681 0.260 0.195 0.138 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 753011 1843 1986 144 1.000 0.173 -0.089 4.572 0.187 -0.003 2 753012 1841 1986 146 1.000 0.185 -0.089 4.069 0.206 -0.001 3 753021 1757 1986 230 1.000 0.234 0.287 4.017 0.254 0.010 4 753022 1758 1986 229 1.000 0.287 0.282 4.247 0.312 0.006 5 753031 1728 1986 259 1.000 0.209 0.436 4.104 0.226 -0.004 6 753032 1690 1986 297 1.000 0.229 0.345 3.575 0.252 -0.002 7 753041 1774 1986 213 1.000 0.181 0.231 4.902 0.195 0.008 8 753042 1761 1986 226 1.000 0.174 0.277 4.046 0.190 0.011 9 753051 1841 1986 146 1.000 0.206 -0.203 4.827 0.232 0.010 10 753052 1826 1986 161 1.000 0.228 0.153 4.043 0.259 0.001 11 753061 1834 1986 153 1.000 0.175 0.309 4.014 0.181 0.004 12 753062 1835 1986 152 1.000 0.178 -0.214 3.616 0.192 -0.005 13 753071 1846 1986 141 1.000 0.206 -0.303 4.648 0.227 0.000 14 753072 1795 1986 192 1.000 0.180 -0.047 5.361 0.200 -0.002 15 753081 1795 1986 192 1.000 0.193 0.377 4.069 0.202 0.001 16 753082 1828 1986 159 1.000 0.228 0.053 4.177 0.254 0.006 17 753091 1716 1986 271 1.000 0.221 0.050 4.399 0.245 0.000 18 753092 1723 1986 264 1.000 0.201 -0.175 4.218 0.224 0.017 19 753101 1795 1986 192 1.000 0.194 0.293 5.325 0.208 -0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 753102 1800 1986 187 1.000 0.233 -0.045 4.953 0.247 -0.001 21 753111 1774 1986 213 1.000 0.231 -0.222 3.365 0.273 -0.003 22 753112 1777 1986 210 1.001 0.263 -0.310 3.384 0.312 0.000 23 753121 1753 1986 234 1.000 0.159 0.004 3.488 0.177 0.004 24 753122 1746 1986 241 1.000 0.155 0.329 4.193 0.168 0.002 25 753131 1692 1986 295 1.000 0.203 0.331 4.969 0.228 0.000 26 753132 1762 1986 225 1.000 0.208 0.308 4.752 0.235 -0.013 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 207 1.000 0.205 0.091 4.282 0.226 0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.000 0.031 0.239 0.563 0.038 0.006 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.204 0.103 4.185 0.227 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.000 0.048 0.398 0.735 0.057 0.008 MINIMUM VALUE 141 1.000 0.155 -0.310 3.365 0.168 -0.013 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 1.000 0.180 -0.089 4.017 0.195 -0.002 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 234 1.000 0.228 0.308 4.752 0.252 0.006 MAXIMUM VALUE 297 1.001 0.287 0.436 5.361 0.312 0.017 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.463 0.097 0.005 0.401 3.556 0.208 0.814 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.208 SERIES 753031 AND 753061 153 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.814 SERIES 753011 AND 753012 144 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 15. 78. 153. 153. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.241 0.361 0.424 0.393 0.428 0.434 0.497 0.570 0.548 SDEV 0.232 0.160 0.169 0.161 0.160 0.150 0.127 0.111 0.117 SERR 0.095 0.041 0.019 0.013 0.013 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.006 EPS 0.696 0.871 0.923 0.929 0.947 0.952 0.963 0.972 0.969 NSS 7.2 12.0 16.3 20.1 24.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1986 297 0.994 0.140 -0.217 5.566 0.160 -0.106 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.131 0.057 0.087 92 205 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.43 1.00 1.06 1.49 23.13 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.105 -0.085 0.030 0.081 -0.004 0.019 -0.013 0.019 0.032 -0.031 PACF -0.105 -0.097 0.010 0.079 0.019 0.035 -0.009 0.014 0.032 -0.026 95% C.L. 0.116 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.021 -0.116 -0.097 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.003 0.002 0.004 0.019 0.035 -0.010 0.021 0.025 -0.037 PACF -0.001 -0.003 0.002 0.004 0.019 0.035 -0.010 0.021 0.024 -0.038 95% C.L. 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.000 -0.001 -0.003 0.002 0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1986 297 0.993 0.159 0.113 3.465 0.135 0.390 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.389 0.363 0.335 0.356 0.256 0.231 0.176 0.163 0.140 0.071 PACF 0.389 0.249 0.167 0.174 0.012 0.011 -0.032 -0.009 0.006 -0.063 95% C.L. 0.116 0.132 0.145 0.155 0.166 0.171 0.175 0.178 0.180 0.181 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.251 0.222 0.165 0.123 0.174 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.60 MINUTES