RUN: SWIT003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT166N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT166N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 753 1 Simmental,St.Stephan,Gyr DENSITY_MINIMUM PCAB - 753 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1900 4631-724 1690 1986 - 753 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 753022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1821 1821 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 753032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1749 1753 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 753061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1956 1960 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 753062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1865 1869 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 753072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1814 1818 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 753111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1910 1914 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 753121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 2 GAPS / 1800 1805 / 1897 1901 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 753132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 14 IN 2 GAPS / 1767 1771 / 1954 1962 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 753011 1843 1986 144 0.285 0.026 1.446 6.907 0.053 0.680 2 753012 1841 1986 146 0.292 0.026 0.324 2.775 0.049 0.691 3 753021 1757 1986 230 0.310 0.023 0.799 5.756 0.057 0.491 4 753022 1758 1986 229 0.321 0.033 2.139 11.528 0.067 0.540 5 753031 1728 1986 259 0.300 0.029 0.184 2.720 0.059 0.700 6 753032 1690 1986 297 0.306 0.030 0.056 2.996 0.069 0.558 7 753041 1774 1986 213 0.289 0.020 0.424 3.540 0.057 0.436 8 753042 1761 1986 226 0.302 0.029 -0.400 3.770 0.055 0.705 9 753051 1841 1986 146 0.336 0.030 0.343 3.057 0.055 0.674 10 753052 1826 1986 161 0.316 0.030 2.352 10.684 0.059 0.634 11 753061 1834 1986 153 0.327 0.022 -0.211 3.136 0.040 0.663 12 753062 1835 1986 152 0.309 0.022 0.401 3.218 0.050 0.551 13 753071 1846 1986 141 0.320 0.021 0.055 2.823 0.055 0.441 14 753072 1795 1986 192 0.316 0.040 0.638 3.309 0.066 0.758 15 753081 1795 1986 192 0.297 0.030 2.446 13.779 0.057 0.675 16 753082 1828 1986 159 0.281 0.022 0.524 3.568 0.061 0.509 17 753091 1716 1986 271 0.282 0.029 0.696 3.592 0.076 0.509 18 753092 1723 1986 264 0.285 0.027 0.112 2.631 0.087 0.298 19 753101 1795 1986 192 0.277 0.020 0.643 3.690 0.062 0.314 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 753102 1800 1986 187 0.273 0.023 0.387 3.034 0.074 0.381 21 753111 1774 1986 213 0.355 0.038 0.577 3.132 0.068 0.633 22 753112 1777 1986 210 0.333 0.027 0.119 4.738 0.070 0.298 23 753121 1753 1986 234 0.335 0.022 0.174 3.603 0.051 0.482 24 753122 1746 1986 241 0.331 0.022 0.522 3.274 0.048 0.520 25 753131 1692 1986 295 0.303 0.025 0.905 6.880 0.053 0.599 26 753132 1762 1986 225 0.302 0.028 1.027 5.592 0.052 0.654 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1690 TO 1986 297 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 205 0.307 0.027 0.642 4.759 0.060 0.554 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.021 0.005 0.726 2.954 0.010 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 209 0.304 0.026 0.473 3.554 0.057 0.554 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 71 0.033 0.007 0.625 2.535 0.014 0.192 MINIMUM VALUE 141 0.273 0.020 -0.400 2.631 0.040 0.298 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 0.289 0.022 0.174 3.057 0.053 0.482 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 230 0.321 0.030 0.799 5.592 0.067 0.674 MAXIMUM VALUE 295 0.355 0.040 2.446 13.779 0.087 0.758 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.207 0.187 0.010 -0.194 2.471 -0.264 0.703 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.264 SERIES 753061 AND 753072 153 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.703 SERIES 753061 AND 753062 152 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 15. 78. 153. 153. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.114 0.250 0.233 0.271 0.275 0.217 0.275 0.327 0.318 SDEV 0.407 0.285 0.311 0.237 0.224 0.281 0.249 0.197 0.214 SERR 0.166 0.074 0.035 0.019 0.018 0.016 0.014 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.483 0.799 0.831 0.882 0.901 0.878 0.908 0.927 0.924 NSS 7.2 12.0 16.3 20.1 24.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1986 297 0.305 0.017 0.595 4.807 0.041 0.546 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.046 0.027 0.022 59 238 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.52 1.00 1.07 1.59 3.75 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.11 0.00 0.88 0.99 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 212. 75. 141. 159. 234. 297. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.544 0.533 0.454 0.447 0.422 0.385 0.370 0.392 0.384 0.304 PACF 0.544 0.337 0.127 0.127 0.094 0.035 0.042 0.105 0.070 -0.077 95% C.L. 0.116 0.146 0.171 0.186 0.200 0.212 0.221 0.229 0.238 0.246 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.402 0.291 0.245 0.062 0.098 0.097 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 753011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009941 0.27730674 2 753012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00008692 0.29803213 3 753021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009501 0.29898235 4 753022 1 0.04531854 0.01741648 0.00000000 0.31093076 5 753031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019396 0.27443746 6 753032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000692 0.30398509 7 753041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00002481 0.29157498 8 753042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014208 0.28560001 9 753051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00024696 0.31808126 10 753052 1 0.20913683 0.19312927 0.00000000 0.31030020 11 753061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00026003 0.30723906 12 753062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00025401 0.28938678 13 753071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006323 0.31501418 14 753072 1 0.33978450 0.00113102 0.00000000 0.01217627 15 753081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006534 0.30328479 16 753082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00020671 0.29798344 17 753091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016570 0.25908816 18 753092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00008221 0.29577947 19 753101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00002653 0.27938265 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 753102 1 0.02243328 0.01886277 0.00000000 0.26720086 21 753111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009194 0.36510012 22 753112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004280 0.32872272 23 753121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003410 0.33009872 24 753122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00003496 0.33535063 25 753131 1 0.05014970 0.03692284 0.00000000 0.29866695 26 753132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00020242 0.28311554 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 753011 1843 1986 144 1.000 0.091 2.007 9.222 0.053 0.663 2 753012 1841 1986 146 1.000 0.087 0.339 2.646 0.049 0.688 3 753021 1757 1986 230 1.000 0.071 1.132 7.353 0.057 0.449 4 753022 1758 1986 229 1.000 0.098 2.001 11.359 0.068 0.556 5 753031 1728 1986 259 1.000 0.083 -0.248 3.191 0.058 0.590 6 753032 1690 1986 297 1.000 0.099 0.091 3.017 0.069 0.563 7 753041 1774 1986 213 1.000 0.068 0.437 3.633 0.056 0.430 8 753042 1761 1986 226 1.000 0.090 -0.442 4.880 0.055 0.675 9 753051 1841 1986 146 1.000 0.082 0.079 2.994 0.055 0.620 10 753052 1826 1986 161 1.000 0.062 0.233 3.236 0.058 0.256 11 753061 1834 1986 153 1.000 0.057 0.796 5.655 0.040 0.504 12 753062 1835 1986 152 1.000 0.062 1.265 6.000 0.050 0.386 13 753071 1846 1986 141 1.000 0.066 0.053 2.861 0.055 0.430 14 753072 1795 1986 192 1.000 0.113 0.821 4.164 0.066 0.703 15 753081 1795 1986 192 1.000 0.100 2.611 14.901 0.057 0.670 16 753082 1828 1986 159 1.000 0.072 0.628 3.715 0.061 0.391 17 753091 1716 1986 271 1.000 0.089 0.349 4.156 0.075 0.377 18 753092 1723 1986 264 1.000 0.091 0.092 2.643 0.087 0.244 19 753101 1795 1986 192 1.000 0.074 0.613 3.592 0.062 0.314 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 753102 1800 1986 187 1.000 0.081 0.400 2.901 0.073 0.335 21 753111 1774 1986 213 1.000 0.105 0.409 3.274 0.067 0.611 22 753112 1777 1986 210 1.000 0.081 0.176 4.584 0.070 0.293 23 753121 1753 1986 234 1.000 0.066 0.381 3.593 0.050 0.480 24 753122 1746 1986 241 1.000 0.067 0.472 3.202 0.048 0.512 25 753131 1692 1986 295 1.000 0.077 0.964 7.250 0.053 0.537 26 753132 1762 1986 225 1.000 0.098 0.861 3.472 0.051 0.738 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 207 1.000 0.082 0.635 4.904 0.059 0.500 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.000 0.015 0.706 2.967 0.010 0.148 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.081 0.423 3.613 0.057 0.508 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.000 0.023 0.684 2.464 0.014 0.233 MINIMUM VALUE 141 1.000 0.057 -0.442 2.643 0.040 0.244 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 1.000 0.068 0.176 3.191 0.053 0.386 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 234 1.000 0.091 0.861 5.655 0.067 0.620 MAXIMUM VALUE 297 1.000 0.113 2.611 14.901 0.087 0.738 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 753011 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 753012 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 753021 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 753022 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 753031 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 753032 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 753041 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 753042 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 753051 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 753052 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 753061 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 753062 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 753071 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 753072 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 753081 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 753082 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 753091 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 753092 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 753101 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 753102 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 753111 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 753112 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 753121 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 753122 -67 161 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 753131 -67 197 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 753132 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 753011 1843 1986 144 0.999 0.069 1.030 5.792 0.053 0.485 2 753012 1841 1986 146 0.999 0.060 0.480 3.298 0.049 0.377 3 753021 1757 1986 230 1.000 0.068 1.095 7.117 0.057 0.399 4 753022 1758 1986 229 1.000 0.093 2.018 11.693 0.068 0.509 5 753031 1728 1986 259 1.000 0.078 -0.174 3.198 0.058 0.542 6 753032 1690 1986 297 1.000 0.092 0.167 2.918 0.069 0.487 7 753041 1774 1986 213 1.000 0.063 0.292 3.380 0.056 0.328 8 753042 1761 1986 226 0.999 0.072 -0.659 6.360 0.055 0.465 9 753051 1841 1986 146 0.999 0.062 0.140 4.032 0.055 0.311 10 753052 1826 1986 161 1.000 0.054 0.368 3.843 0.058 0.020 11 753061 1834 1986 153 1.000 0.053 0.578 4.740 0.040 0.446 12 753062 1835 1986 152 1.000 0.050 0.566 5.035 0.050 0.110 13 753071 1846 1986 141 1.000 0.056 0.268 3.180 0.055 0.186 14 753072 1795 1986 192 0.999 0.103 1.094 4.943 0.066 0.649 15 753081 1795 1986 192 0.999 0.088 2.453 14.303 0.057 0.587 16 753082 1828 1986 159 1.000 0.067 0.652 3.575 0.061 0.296 17 753091 1716 1986 271 1.000 0.076 0.412 3.874 0.075 0.158 18 753092 1723 1986 264 1.000 0.086 0.070 2.762 0.087 0.156 19 753101 1795 1986 192 1.000 0.067 0.523 3.477 0.062 0.192 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 753102 1800 1986 187 1.000 0.071 0.450 3.094 0.074 0.142 21 753111 1774 1986 213 0.999 0.086 0.590 3.340 0.067 0.433 22 753112 1777 1986 210 1.000 0.077 0.319 4.237 0.070 0.205 23 753121 1753 1986 234 1.000 0.063 0.554 3.655 0.050 0.432 24 753122 1746 1986 241 1.000 0.058 0.649 4.002 0.048 0.359 25 753131 1692 1986 295 1.000 0.070 1.334 10.160 0.053 0.432 26 753132 1762 1986 225 0.999 0.090 0.767 3.460 0.051 0.691 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 207 1.000 0.072 0.617 4.979 0.059 0.362 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.000 0.014 0.631 2.874 0.010 0.175 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.069 0.539 3.858 0.057 0.388 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.000 0.023 0.475 1.695 0.014 0.293 MINIMUM VALUE 141 0.999 0.050 -0.659 2.762 0.040 0.020 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 0.999 0.062 0.292 3.340 0.053 0.192 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 234 1.000 0.086 0.767 5.035 0.067 0.485 MAXIMUM VALUE 297 1.000 0.103 2.453 14.303 0.087 0.691 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.257 0.129 0.007 -0.046 3.234 -0.158 0.654 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.158 SERIES 753072 AND 753081 192 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.654 SERIES 753061 AND 753062 152 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 15. 78. 153. 153. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.156 0.258 0.255 0.286 0.297 0.236 0.274 0.338 0.360 SDEV 0.342 0.254 0.269 0.224 0.200 0.231 0.213 0.178 0.163 SERR 0.140 0.066 0.030 0.018 0.016 0.013 0.012 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.572 0.807 0.848 0.890 0.910 0.889 0.907 0.930 0.936 NSS 7.2 12.0 16.3 20.1 24.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1986 297 0.998 0.041 0.621 3.511 0.042 0.162 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.306 0.193 -0.131 105 192 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.58 1.00 1.06 1.64 7.36 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.161 0.173 0.071 0.074 0.058 0.047 0.021 0.103 0.094 -0.013 PACF 0.161 0.151 0.025 0.036 0.031 0.018 -0.005 0.090 0.065 -0.070 95% C.L. 0.116 0.119 0.122 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.126 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.049 0.137 0.151 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.149 0.178 0.041 0.126 0.069 0.045 0.028 0.122 0.050 -0.038 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.149 2 0.126 0.159 3 0.126 0.160 -0.005 4 0.127 0.144 -0.018 0.098 5 0.123 0.145 -0.023 0.093 0.038 6 0.123 0.145 -0.023 0.093 0.038 -0.003 7 0.123 0.145 -0.024 0.094 0.038 -0.004 0.005 8 0.123 0.145 -0.028 0.084 0.040 -0.019 -0.008 0.106 9 0.122 0.145 -0.027 0.083 0.039 -0.019 -0.009 0.105 0.009 10 0.123 0.155 -0.028 0.081 0.043 -0.011 -0.012 0.119 0.020 -0.091 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1544.09 1539.40 1533.79 1535.78 1534.93 1536.50 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1538.50 1540.49 1539.11 1541.08 1540.62 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.126 0.159 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 4.70 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 104.93 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.126 0.175 0.042 0.033 0.011 0.007 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 753011 2 0.283 0.400 0.197 2 753012 2 0.216 0.332 0.155 3 753021 2 0.192 0.322 0.196 4 753022 2 0.281 0.460 0.102 5 753031 2 0.360 0.400 0.267 6 753032 2 0.331 0.335 0.314 7 753041 2 0.177 0.240 0.271 8 753042 2 0.296 0.323 0.308 9 753051 2 0.181 0.242 0.247 10 753052 2 0.007 0.020 0.047 11 753061 2 0.268 0.371 0.220 12 753062 2 0.016 0.105 0.061 13 753071 2 0.058 0.158 0.155 14 753072 2 0.517 0.410 0.371 15 753081 2 0.368 0.487 0.171 16 753082 2 0.156 0.220 0.262 17 753091 2 0.075 0.123 0.221 18 753092 2 0.059 0.127 0.189 19 753101 2 0.084 0.158 0.209 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 753102 2 0.074 0.109 0.233 21 753111 2 0.281 0.313 0.288 22 753112 2 0.115 0.152 0.273 23 753121 2 0.279 0.301 0.306 24 753122 2 0.203 0.261 0.274 25 753131 2 0.247 0.323 0.254 26 753132 2 0.569 0.414 0.403 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.219 0.273 0.231 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.142 0.124 0.085 MEDIAN 2 0.210 0.307 0.240 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.198 0.213 0.085 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.007 0.020 0.047 LOWER HINGE 2 0.084 0.158 0.189 UPPER HINGE 2 0.283 0.371 0.274 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.569 0.487 0.403 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 753011 1843 1986 144 1.000 0.057 0.593 4.072 0.066 -0.033 2 753012 1841 1986 146 1.000 0.054 0.358 3.248 0.059 -0.048 3 753021 1757 1986 230 1.000 0.061 0.847 5.715 0.068 0.004 4 753022 1758 1986 229 1.000 0.079 1.067 6.082 0.086 -0.015 5 753031 1728 1986 259 1.000 0.063 0.245 3.198 0.072 -0.033 6 753032 1690 1986 297 1.000 0.076 0.081 4.002 0.083 -0.051 7 753041 1774 1986 213 1.000 0.057 0.218 3.254 0.064 -0.015 8 753042 1761 1986 226 1.000 0.060 -0.586 7.866 0.065 -0.019 9 753051 1841 1986 146 1.000 0.057 0.544 4.213 0.062 -0.041 10 753052 1826 1986 161 1.000 0.054 0.378 3.832 0.059 -0.003 11 753061 1834 1986 153 1.000 0.045 0.348 4.250 0.050 -0.047 12 753062 1835 1986 152 1.000 0.050 0.586 5.092 0.053 -0.002 13 753071 1846 1986 141 1.000 0.054 0.368 3.073 0.060 -0.001 14 753072 1795 1986 192 1.000 0.072 1.016 5.541 0.082 -0.063 15 753081 1795 1986 192 1.000 0.070 1.101 6.602 0.074 -0.013 16 753082 1828 1986 159 1.000 0.062 0.849 4.204 0.067 -0.015 17 753091 1716 1986 271 1.000 0.074 0.391 3.759 0.080 -0.010 18 753092 1723 1986 264 1.000 0.083 0.093 2.911 0.093 0.001 19 753101 1795 1986 192 1.000 0.064 0.411 3.375 0.069 -0.017 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 753102 1800 1986 187 1.000 0.069 0.475 3.198 0.078 -0.007 21 753111 1774 1986 213 1.000 0.074 0.718 4.154 0.079 -0.056 22 753112 1777 1986 210 1.000 0.072 0.517 3.914 0.077 -0.007 23 753121 1753 1986 234 1.000 0.054 0.590 3.633 0.060 -0.044 24 753122 1746 1986 241 1.000 0.052 0.823 4.725 0.056 -0.028 25 753131 1692 1986 295 1.000 0.061 1.232 8.583 0.063 -0.026 26 753132 1762 1986 225 1.000 0.059 0.947 5.129 0.062 -0.036 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 207 1.000 0.063 0.547 4.524 0.069 -0.024 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.000 0.010 0.390 1.462 0.011 0.019 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.061 0.530 4.113 0.067 -0.018 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.000 0.017 0.490 1.754 0.018 0.033 MINIMUM VALUE 141 1.000 0.045 -0.586 2.911 0.050 -0.063 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 1.000 0.054 0.358 3.375 0.060 -0.041 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 234 1.000 0.072 0.847 5.129 0.078 -0.007 MAXIMUM VALUE 297 1.000 0.083 1.232 8.583 0.093 0.004 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.328 0.098 0.005 0.535 3.796 0.086 0.704 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.086 SERIES 753032 AND 753062 152 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.704 SERIES 753091 AND 753092 264 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 15. 78. 153. 153. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.279 0.363 0.370 0.366 0.306 0.282 0.340 0.397 0.414 SDEV 0.298 0.215 0.174 0.168 0.167 0.165 0.160 0.150 0.137 SERR 0.122 0.056 0.020 0.014 0.013 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.737 0.872 0.905 0.921 0.914 0.911 0.930 0.945 0.948 NSS 7.2 12.0 16.3 20.1 24.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1986 297 0.998 0.039 0.326 3.293 0.046 -0.112 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.271 0.144 -0.093 98 199 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.62 1.00 1.08 1.70 98.17 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.112 -0.132 -0.049 0.016 0.038 -0.026 -0.023 0.067 0.065 -0.056 PACF -0.112 -0.147 -0.085 -0.023 0.019 -0.024 -0.022 0.060 0.077 -0.022 95% C.L. 0.116 0.118 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.041 -0.141 -0.158 -0.085 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.012 -0.012 -0.082 -0.009 0.028 -0.012 -0.002 0.066 0.071 -0.037 PACF -0.012 -0.013 -0.082 -0.011 0.026 -0.019 -0.004 0.070 0.072 -0.035 95% C.L. 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.118 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.007 -0.012 -0.013 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1986 297 0.998 0.039 0.646 3.580 0.041 0.118 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.118 0.152 -0.037 0.015 0.026 0.006 0.022 0.071 0.083 -0.010 PACF 0.118 0.140 -0.071 0.005 0.042 -0.007 0.014 0.074 0.064 -0.048 95% C.L. 0.116 0.118 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.122 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.038 0.102 0.140 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.35 MINUTES