RUN: SWIT003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT166P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT166P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 753 1 Simmental,St.Stephan,Gyr LATEWOOD_PERCENT PCAB - 753 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1900 4631-724 1690 1986 - 753 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 753022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1821 1821 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 753132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 1 GAPS / 1954 1962 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 753011 1843 1986 144 1.432 0.394 1.031 4.159 0.246 0.191 2 753012 1841 1986 146 1.646 0.512 0.477 2.492 0.267 0.304 3 753021 1757 1986 230 2.104 0.838 1.258 4.387 0.200 0.752 4 753022 1758 1986 229 2.916 1.115 1.495 4.979 0.188 0.754 5 753031 1728 1986 259 1.747 0.367 0.594 3.025 0.220 0.145 6 753032 1690 1986 297 2.283 0.579 0.580 3.340 0.205 0.474 7 753041 1774 1986 213 1.444 0.375 1.402 6.204 0.212 0.339 8 753042 1761 1986 226 1.579 0.433 1.491 9.427 0.237 0.166 9 753051 1841 1986 146 1.883 0.449 0.578 3.837 0.210 0.374 10 753052 1826 1986 161 2.160 0.999 2.129 8.329 0.228 0.721 11 753061 1834 1986 153 1.583 0.512 2.246 9.843 0.261 0.167 12 753062 1835 1986 152 1.615 0.616 2.155 9.685 0.233 0.557 13 753071 1846 1986 141 2.423 0.993 1.105 3.092 0.209 0.733 14 753072 1795 1986 192 2.125 0.655 0.556 2.633 0.226 0.558 15 753081 1795 1986 192 1.883 0.433 1.037 4.592 0.213 0.191 16 753082 1828 1986 159 2.330 0.661 0.993 3.954 0.185 0.569 17 753091 1716 1986 271 1.881 0.515 1.093 4.698 0.208 0.429 18 753092 1723 1986 264 1.741 0.569 1.256 4.760 0.242 0.540 19 753101 1795 1986 192 1.527 0.508 3.065 15.585 0.234 0.271 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 753102 1800 1986 187 1.785 0.614 1.455 5.736 0.238 0.524 21 753111 1774 1986 213 2.013 0.719 1.326 4.787 0.229 0.635 22 753112 1777 1986 210 3.019 0.895 2.079 13.592 0.192 0.472 23 753121 1753 1986 234 1.810 0.491 1.508 6.306 0.202 0.590 24 753122 1746 1986 241 1.588 0.343 0.779 4.203 0.207 0.186 25 753131 1692 1986 295 1.741 0.605 1.524 5.081 0.205 0.650 26 753132 1762 1986 225 1.910 0.548 1.014 4.368 0.201 0.496 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1690 TO 1986 297 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 206 1.930 0.605 1.316 5.888 0.219 0.453 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.407 0.208 0.622 3.300 0.021 0.201 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 1.846 0.558 1.257 4.729 0.212 0.485 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.511 0.212 0.515 2.352 0.030 0.320 MINIMUM VALUE 141 1.432 0.343 0.477 2.492 0.185 0.145 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 1.615 0.449 0.993 3.954 0.205 0.271 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 234 2.125 0.661 1.508 6.306 0.234 0.590 MAXIMUM VALUE 297 3.019 1.115 3.065 15.585 0.267 0.754 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.219 0.179 0.010 0.032 3.549 -0.347 0.795 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.347 SERIES 753071 AND 753132 141 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.795 SERIES 753061 AND 753062 152 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 15. 78. 153. 153. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR -0.028 0.159 0.179 0.233 0.255 0.189 0.268 0.357 0.310 SDEV 0.429 0.173 0.228 0.209 0.169 0.174 0.213 0.168 0.188 SERR 0.175 0.045 0.026 0.017 0.014 0.010 0.012 0.009 0.010 EPS -0.251 0.694 0.780 0.859 0.892 0.858 0.905 0.935 0.921 NSS 7.2 12.0 16.3 20.1 24.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1986 297 1.902 0.425 1.718 6.577 0.135 0.666 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.138 0.066 0.384 174 123 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.57 1.45 1.00 1.25 2.70 27.89 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.98 0.10 0.00 0.90 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 212. 75. 141. 159. 234. 297. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.663 0.685 0.640 0.600 0.600 0.540 0.509 0.499 0.464 0.465 PACF 0.663 0.437 0.208 0.080 0.113 -0.010 -0.029 0.035 0.006 0.048 95% C.L. 0.116 0.159 0.195 0.221 0.242 0.261 0.276 0.288 0.300 0.309 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.593 0.224 0.284 0.156 0.076 0.153 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 753011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00162232 1.31425703 2 753012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00645748 1.17119694 3 753021 1 2.10711455 0.04885748 0.00000000 1.92090702 4 753022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00364829 2.50172973 5 753031 1 0.64234400 0.06674650 0.00000000 1.71067226 6 753032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00210292 1.97009969 7 753041 1 0.50203073 0.02204652 0.00000000 1.33946157 8 753042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00138893 1.42089677 9 753051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00144781 1.77694190 10 753052 1 6.03790855 0.15028593 0.00000000 1.92911482 11 753061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00244904 1.39469206 12 753062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00541066 1.20075548 13 753071 1 3.29537249 0.03385931 0.00000000 1.75011611 14 753072 1 0.65912169 0.02728559 0.00000000 2.00181746 15 753081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00140177 1.74759376 16 753082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00324731 2.06977463 17 753091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00047626 1.81600404 18 753092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00294074 1.35122335 19 753101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00170348 1.69152105 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 753102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00612808 1.20909429 21 753111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00802741 1.15402472 22 753112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00730374 2.24878931 23 753121 1 0.59925449 0.01504244 0.00000000 1.64646983 24 753122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017391 1.56696475 25 753131 1 2.29833555 0.03528546 0.00000000 1.52447677 26 753132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00278458 1.63380408 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 753011 1843 1986 144 1.000 0.276 1.382 5.916 0.244 0.189 2 753012 1841 1986 146 1.002 0.275 0.727 3.309 0.265 0.132 3 753021 1757 1986 230 1.000 0.364 1.543 6.009 0.199 0.692 4 753022 1758 1986 229 1.002 0.379 1.683 6.573 0.188 0.748 5 753031 1728 1986 259 1.000 0.203 0.633 3.218 0.219 0.079 6 753032 1690 1986 297 1.001 0.248 0.897 4.291 0.205 0.443 7 753041 1774 1986 213 1.000 0.245 1.447 6.335 0.211 0.269 8 753042 1761 1986 226 1.000 0.266 1.314 7.344 0.236 0.117 9 753051 1841 1986 146 1.000 0.238 0.657 4.229 0.208 0.361 10 753052 1826 1986 161 1.000 0.308 0.608 3.022 0.225 0.488 11 753061 1834 1986 153 1.000 0.307 1.783 7.236 0.259 0.140 12 753062 1835 1986 152 1.004 0.345 1.666 7.121 0.231 0.493 13 753071 1846 1986 141 1.000 0.259 2.398 15.840 0.207 0.188 14 753072 1795 1986 192 1.000 0.301 0.576 2.521 0.225 0.541 15 753081 1795 1986 192 1.000 0.225 0.983 4.430 0.212 0.157 16 753082 1828 1986 159 1.000 0.281 1.158 4.149 0.184 0.562 17 753091 1716 1986 271 1.000 0.274 1.121 4.771 0.207 0.436 18 753092 1723 1986 264 1.001 0.289 0.740 3.342 0.241 0.442 19 753101 1795 1986 192 1.000 0.329 3.396 18.950 0.233 0.208 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 753102 1800 1986 187 1.004 0.275 0.551 3.541 0.237 0.332 21 753111 1774 1986 213 1.007 0.268 1.430 5.942 0.228 0.329 22 753112 1777 1986 210 1.000 0.252 2.216 12.527 0.191 0.296 23 753121 1753 1986 234 1.000 0.246 0.932 4.606 0.201 0.498 24 753122 1746 1986 241 1.000 0.216 0.793 4.284 0.206 0.185 25 753131 1692 1986 295 1.000 0.245 1.739 9.552 0.204 0.219 26 753132 1762 1986 225 1.001 0.274 0.603 2.997 0.196 0.498 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 207 1.001 0.277 1.268 6.233 0.218 0.348 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.002 0.043 0.678 3.999 0.021 0.184 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.274 1.140 4.688 0.211 0.331 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.001 0.055 0.939 3.580 0.029 0.304 MINIMUM VALUE 141 1.000 0.203 0.551 2.521 0.184 0.079 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 1.000 0.246 0.727 3.541 0.204 0.188 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 234 1.001 0.301 1.666 7.121 0.233 0.493 MAXIMUM VALUE 297 1.007 0.379 3.396 18.950 0.265 0.748 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 753011 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 753012 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 753021 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 753022 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 753031 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 753032 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 753041 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 753042 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 753051 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 753052 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 753061 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 753062 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 753071 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 753072 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 753081 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 753082 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 753091 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 753092 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 753101 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 753102 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 753111 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 753112 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 753121 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 753122 -67 161 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 753131 -67 197 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 753132 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 753011 1843 1986 144 0.996 0.233 0.724 3.299 0.244 -0.023 2 753012 1841 1986 146 0.997 0.244 0.647 3.378 0.265 -0.110 3 753021 1757 1986 230 0.997 0.340 1.681 6.619 0.199 0.650 4 753022 1758 1986 229 0.996 0.271 2.052 10.178 0.187 0.532 5 753031 1728 1986 259 1.000 0.201 0.672 3.377 0.219 0.061 6 753032 1690 1986 297 0.998 0.212 0.487 3.136 0.205 0.248 7 753041 1774 1986 213 0.999 0.237 1.353 5.942 0.211 0.229 8 753042 1761 1986 226 0.999 0.263 1.870 11.272 0.236 0.052 9 753051 1841 1986 146 0.999 0.204 0.482 3.608 0.208 0.175 10 753052 1826 1986 161 0.997 0.232 0.874 3.724 0.226 0.124 11 753061 1834 1986 153 0.999 0.280 1.594 5.779 0.260 0.003 12 753062 1835 1986 152 0.997 0.260 1.447 5.917 0.231 0.141 13 753071 1846 1986 141 0.998 0.242 2.622 16.499 0.207 0.078 14 753072 1795 1986 192 0.996 0.267 0.693 2.956 0.224 0.411 15 753081 1795 1986 192 0.999 0.217 0.888 3.998 0.212 0.109 16 753082 1828 1986 159 0.994 0.219 1.002 4.234 0.184 0.310 17 753091 1716 1986 271 0.997 0.259 1.287 5.413 0.207 0.363 18 753092 1723 1986 264 0.996 0.257 0.745 3.593 0.241 0.295 19 753101 1795 1986 192 0.999 0.310 3.243 18.430 0.233 0.183 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 753102 1800 1986 187 0.998 0.236 0.758 4.492 0.237 0.050 21 753111 1774 1986 213 0.999 0.225 1.103 4.725 0.228 0.110 22 753112 1777 1986 210 0.999 0.244 2.198 12.288 0.191 0.264 23 753121 1753 1986 234 0.998 0.236 0.834 4.292 0.201 0.453 24 753122 1746 1986 241 0.999 0.209 0.958 5.199 0.206 0.121 25 753131 1692 1986 295 0.999 0.237 1.751 9.103 0.204 0.172 26 753132 1762 1986 225 0.994 0.230 0.848 3.821 0.196 0.293 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 207 0.998 0.245 1.262 6.357 0.218 0.204 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.002 0.032 0.696 4.153 0.021 0.177 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 0.998 0.237 0.980 4.608 0.211 0.173 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.002 0.034 0.936 3.012 0.029 0.218 MINIMUM VALUE 141 0.994 0.201 0.482 2.956 0.184 -0.110 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 0.997 0.225 0.745 3.608 0.204 0.078 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 234 0.999 0.260 1.681 6.619 0.233 0.295 MAXIMUM VALUE 297 1.000 0.340 3.243 18.430 0.265 0.650 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.237 0.110 0.006 0.381 4.145 -0.073 0.746 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.073 SERIES 753022 AND 753121 229 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.746 SERIES 753061 AND 753062 152 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 15. 78. 153. 153. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.044 0.136 0.177 0.237 0.264 0.196 0.265 0.347 0.327 SDEV 0.340 0.184 0.228 0.205 0.164 0.164 0.174 0.166 0.165 SERR 0.139 0.048 0.026 0.017 0.013 0.009 0.010 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.248 0.653 0.778 0.862 0.896 0.864 0.904 0.932 0.927 NSS 7.2 12.0 16.3 20.1 24.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1986 297 0.980 0.125 0.800 5.546 0.129 0.108 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.457 0.281 -0.087 101 196 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.43 0.75 1.01 1.21 1.95 19.56 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.108 0.161 0.104 0.059 0.106 0.043 0.046 -0.021 0.023 0.103 PACF 0.108 0.151 0.075 0.021 0.076 0.010 0.011 -0.050 0.011 0.101 95% C.L. 0.116 0.117 0.120 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.124 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.040 0.091 0.151 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.024 0.128 0.055 0.038 0.010 0.010 0.013 -0.030 -0.011 0.052 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.024 2 0.021 0.127 3 0.015 0.126 0.050 4 0.014 0.123 0.050 0.021 5 0.014 0.124 0.050 0.021 -0.004 6 0.014 0.124 0.050 0.021 -0.004 0.000 7 0.014 0.124 0.050 0.020 -0.005 0.000 0.009 8 0.014 0.124 0.050 0.021 -0.003 0.004 0.010 -0.033 9 0.013 0.124 0.050 0.021 -0.003 0.005 0.011 -0.033 -0.013 10 0.014 0.126 0.049 0.021 -0.003 0.003 0.008 -0.041 -0.014 0.060 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2242.96 2244.79 2241.96 2243.22 2245.10 2247.09 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2249.09 2251.07 2252.74 2254.68 2255.62 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.021 0.127 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.67 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.70 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.021 0.127 0.005 0.016 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 753011 2 0.009 -0.022 0.087 2 753012 2 0.061 -0.099 0.104 3 753021 2 0.477 0.462 0.291 4 753022 2 0.358 0.363 0.319 5 753031 2 0.041 0.051 0.174 6 753032 2 0.106 0.201 0.192 7 753041 2 0.084 0.216 0.060 8 753042 2 0.036 0.043 0.174 9 753051 2 0.040 0.162 0.090 10 753052 2 0.019 0.124 0.001 11 753061 2 0.037 0.002 0.192 12 753062 2 0.063 0.115 0.187 13 753071 2 0.080 0.057 0.262 14 753072 2 0.245 0.381 0.077 15 753081 2 0.017 0.102 0.062 16 753082 2 0.166 0.244 0.216 17 753091 2 0.204 0.288 0.218 18 753092 2 0.152 0.227 0.236 19 753101 2 0.053 0.191 0.080 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 753102 2 0.007 0.046 0.067 21 753111 2 0.028 0.097 0.127 22 753112 2 0.075 0.256 0.033 23 753121 2 0.258 0.346 0.238 24 753122 2 0.016 0.117 0.033 25 753131 2 0.058 0.147 0.149 26 753132 2 0.170 0.227 0.225 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.110 0.167 0.150 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.117 0.134 0.087 MEDIAN 2 0.062 0.155 0.162 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.130 0.186 0.141 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.007 -0.099 0.001 LOWER HINGE 2 0.036 0.057 0.077 UPPER HINGE 2 0.166 0.244 0.218 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.477 0.462 0.319 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 753011 1843 1986 144 1.000 0.232 0.737 3.325 0.239 0.003 2 753012 1841 1986 146 1.000 0.241 0.574 3.201 0.252 -0.020 3 753021 1757 1986 230 1.000 0.247 0.443 4.718 0.265 -0.024 4 753022 1758 1986 229 1.000 0.217 1.695 9.513 0.215 0.012 5 753031 1728 1986 259 1.000 0.197 0.655 3.508 0.222 0.015 6 753032 1690 1986 297 1.000 0.201 0.612 3.348 0.224 -0.019 7 753041 1774 1986 213 1.000 0.230 1.250 5.767 0.234 -0.010 8 753042 1761 1986 226 1.000 0.259 1.958 12.081 0.243 -0.010 9 753051 1841 1986 146 1.000 0.200 0.604 3.952 0.222 -0.002 10 753052 1826 1986 161 1.000 0.230 0.943 3.984 0.238 0.001 11 753061 1834 1986 153 1.000 0.275 1.288 4.887 0.263 -0.003 12 753062 1835 1986 152 1.000 0.253 1.368 5.714 0.249 -0.018 13 753071 1846 1986 141 1.000 0.233 2.758 17.447 0.209 -0.020 14 753072 1795 1986 192 1.000 0.242 0.529 3.045 0.268 -0.023 15 753081 1795 1986 192 1.000 0.215 0.869 4.152 0.224 -0.002 16 753082 1828 1986 159 1.000 0.203 1.196 5.459 0.210 -0.039 17 753091 1716 1986 271 1.000 0.235 1.248 5.802 0.243 -0.040 18 753092 1723 1986 264 1.000 0.239 0.680 4.040 0.267 -0.027 19 753101 1795 1986 192 1.000 0.302 3.285 19.361 0.257 0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 753102 1800 1986 187 1.000 0.235 0.791 4.680 0.242 0.000 21 753111 1774 1986 213 1.000 0.222 1.011 4.477 0.241 0.001 22 753112 1777 1986 210 1.000 0.235 2.548 15.356 0.217 -0.002 23 753121 1753 1986 234 1.000 0.203 0.408 3.382 0.232 -0.023 24 753122 1746 1986 241 1.000 0.208 0.961 5.156 0.217 0.000 25 753131 1692 1986 295 1.000 0.231 1.867 10.294 0.222 -0.014 26 753132 1762 1986 225 1.000 0.214 0.900 4.338 0.221 -0.048 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 207 1.000 0.231 1.199 6.576 0.236 -0.012 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.000 0.024 0.747 4.589 0.018 0.016 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.231 0.952 4.699 0.236 -0.010 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.000 0.027 0.713 1.849 0.027 0.024 MINIMUM VALUE 141 1.000 0.197 0.408 3.045 0.209 -0.048 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 1.000 0.214 0.655 3.952 0.222 -0.023 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 234 1.000 0.241 1.368 5.802 0.249 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 297 1.000 0.302 3.285 19.361 0.268 0.015 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.258 0.100 0.006 0.431 4.221 0.008 0.723 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.008 SERIES 753032 AND 753101 192 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.723 SERIES 753061 AND 753062 152 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 15. 78. 153. 153. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.061 0.168 0.217 0.242 0.233 0.195 0.268 0.360 0.358 SDEV 0.176 0.154 0.202 0.190 0.157 0.149 0.166 0.150 0.146 SERR 0.072 0.040 0.023 0.015 0.013 0.008 0.009 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.321 0.708 0.819 0.865 0.880 0.863 0.905 0.936 0.935 NSS 7.2 12.0 16.3 20.1 24.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1986 297 0.987 0.119 0.920 5.869 0.135 -0.106 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.434 0.248 -0.071 105 192 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.62 1.00 1.08 1.70 9.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.105 -0.042 0.045 -0.001 0.080 0.017 0.002 -0.061 -0.018 0.119 PACF -0.105 -0.054 0.035 0.006 0.086 0.035 0.016 -0.065 -0.036 0.102 95% C.L. 0.116 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.014 -0.105 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 0.004 0.040 0.013 0.087 0.024 0.001 -0.057 -0.011 0.115 PACF 0.002 0.004 0.040 0.012 0.087 0.023 -0.001 -0.065 -0.015 0.109 95% C.L. 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.118 0.118 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.002 0.002 0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1986 297 0.987 0.119 0.961 5.974 0.127 0.034 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.034 0.135 0.058 0.035 0.093 0.025 0.012 -0.039 -0.004 0.099 PACF 0.034 0.134 0.051 0.014 0.080 0.012 -0.014 -0.054 -0.008 0.107 95% C.L. 0.116 0.116 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.021 0.029 0.134 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.34 MINUTES