RUN: SWIT003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT168E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT168E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 757 1 Simmental, Iffigenalp WIDTH_EARLY LADE - 757 2 Switzerland European Larch 1900 4624-726 1681 1986 - 757 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 757161 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1898 1898 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 757161 1777 1971 195 0.775 0.492 1.508 5.626 0.439 0.604 2 757162 1786 1968 183 0.629 0.329 0.780 3.817 0.521 0.311 3 757171 1702 1986 285 0.693 0.426 1.124 3.937 0.371 0.728 4 757172 1739 1986 248 0.650 0.444 3.193 22.782 0.420 0.534 5 757181 1681 1986 306 0.453 0.279 1.397 5.649 0.362 0.754 6 757182 1755 1986 232 0.322 0.161 0.709 3.146 0.399 0.610 7 757191 1825 1982 158 1.279 0.689 1.082 4.146 0.346 0.631 8 757192 1771 1982 212 0.606 0.316 1.258 4.728 0.379 0.624 9 757201 1848 1982 135 1.006 0.409 0.590 3.182 0.290 0.587 10 757202 1831 1982 152 0.689 0.428 1.734 6.538 0.324 0.769 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 10 FROM 1681 TO 1986 306 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 0.710 0.397 1.338 6.355 0.385 0.615 STANDARD DEVIATION 57 0.269 0.141 0.746 5.879 0.065 0.132 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 203 0.670 0.417 1.191 4.437 0.375 0.617 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 90 0.169 0.128 0.729 1.832 0.074 0.140 MINIMUM VALUE 135 0.322 0.161 0.590 3.146 0.290 0.311 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 158 0.606 0.316 0.780 3.817 0.346 0.587 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 0.775 0.444 1.508 5.649 0.420 0.728 MAXIMUM VALUE 306 1.279 0.689 3.193 22.782 0.521 0.769 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 45 0.565 0.149 0.022 -0.718 3.250 0.245 0.869 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.245 SERIES 757172 AND 757202 152 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.869 SERIES 757181 AND 757182 232 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.08 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 3. 6. 21. 21. 36. 45. 45. 45. RBAR 0.655 0.355 0.674 0.631 0.577 0.579 0.610 0.595 0.626 SDEV 0.000 0.128 0.095 0.122 0.183 0.171 0.128 0.158 0.133 SERR 0.000 0.074 0.039 0.027 0.040 0.029 0.019 0.023 0.020 EPS 0.838 0.709 0.928 0.928 0.923 0.931 0.940 0.936 0.944 NSS 2.7 4.4 6.2 7.5 8.8 9.8 10.0 10.0 10.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1681 1986 306 0.660 0.318 1.128 4.602 0.334 0.627 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.554 0.311 0.074 107 199 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.95 4.78 1.00 1.42 6.20 57.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.16 0.00 0.84 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 204. 90. 135. 158. 248. 306. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.625 0.525 0.414 0.361 0.340 0.278 0.288 0.289 0.305 0.284 PACF 0.625 0.221 0.034 0.059 0.085 -0.018 0.084 0.076 0.075 0.011 95% C.L. 0.114 0.153 0.175 0.187 0.196 0.203 0.208 0.213 0.219 0.224 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.422 0.487 0.221 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 757161 1 1.36795390 0.02608195 0.00000000 0.50789499 2 757162 1 1.44163394 0.25010216 0.00000000 0.60162103 3 757171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00326267 1.15947413 4 757172 1 1.50849390 0.04400956 0.00000000 0.51457089 5 757181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00200505 0.76097763 6 757182 1 0.36615673 0.00589781 0.00000000 0.12340405 7 757191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00323794 1.02163434 8 757192 1 0.51503181 0.02233971 0.00000000 0.49944806 9 757201 1 0.84989160 0.01462257 0.00000000 0.63798660 10 757202 1 1.34907997 0.03364601 0.00000000 0.43159583 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 757161 1777 1971 195 1.000 0.462 0.614 3.853 0.435 0.362 2 757162 1786 1968 183 1.000 0.491 0.526 3.286 0.519 0.222 3 757171 1702 1986 285 1.019 0.478 0.631 3.043 0.370 0.522 4 757172 1739 1986 248 0.999 0.479 0.735 3.612 0.418 0.467 5 757181 1681 1986 306 1.011 0.465 0.983 4.610 0.361 0.551 6 757182 1755 1986 232 1.000 0.431 0.247 2.522 0.397 0.464 7 757191 1825 1982 158 1.001 0.527 1.038 4.097 0.344 0.616 8 757192 1771 1982 212 1.000 0.450 0.683 3.624 0.377 0.504 9 757201 1848 1982 135 1.000 0.353 0.384 3.185 0.288 0.408 10 757202 1831 1982 152 1.000 0.400 0.797 3.207 0.320 0.465 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 1.003 0.454 0.664 3.504 0.383 0.458 STANDARD DEVIATION 57 0.007 0.049 0.245 0.590 0.065 0.109 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 203 1.000 0.463 0.657 3.449 0.374 0.466 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 90 0.001 0.048 0.271 0.669 0.074 0.114 MINIMUM VALUE 135 0.999 0.353 0.247 2.522 0.288 0.222 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 158 1.000 0.431 0.526 3.185 0.344 0.408 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 1.001 0.479 0.797 3.853 0.418 0.522 MAXIMUM VALUE 306 1.019 0.527 1.038 4.610 0.519 0.616 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 757161 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 757162 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 757171 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 757172 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 757181 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 757182 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 757191 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 757192 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 757201 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 757202 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 757161 1777 1971 195 0.998 0.452 0.491 3.397 0.435 0.348 2 757162 1786 1968 183 0.997 0.473 0.463 3.365 0.518 0.177 3 757171 1702 1986 285 0.996 0.451 0.753 3.510 0.370 0.496 4 757172 1739 1986 248 0.997 0.470 0.790 4.186 0.418 0.446 5 757181 1681 1986 306 0.997 0.426 0.530 3.137 0.361 0.505 6 757182 1755 1986 232 0.997 0.418 0.184 2.451 0.397 0.429 7 757191 1825 1982 158 0.990 0.475 0.839 3.541 0.344 0.558 8 757192 1771 1982 212 0.998 0.444 0.650 3.500 0.377 0.488 9 757201 1848 1982 135 0.999 0.350 0.384 3.114 0.288 0.405 10 757202 1831 1982 152 0.998 0.378 0.698 3.243 0.320 0.402 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 0.997 0.434 0.578 3.344 0.383 0.425 STANDARD DEVIATION 57 0.003 0.042 0.205 0.436 0.065 0.106 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 203 0.997 0.447 0.590 3.381 0.373 0.437 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 90 0.001 0.052 0.291 0.373 0.074 0.094 MINIMUM VALUE 135 0.990 0.350 0.184 2.451 0.288 0.177 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 158 0.997 0.418 0.463 3.137 0.344 0.402 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 0.998 0.470 0.753 3.510 0.418 0.496 MAXIMUM VALUE 306 0.999 0.475 0.839 4.186 0.518 0.558 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 45 0.587 0.085 0.013 0.019 4.512 0.367 0.819 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.367 SERIES 757161 AND 757202 141 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.819 SERIES 757181 AND 757182 232 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.08 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 3. 6. 21. 21. 36. 45. 45. 45. RBAR 0.604 0.615 0.675 0.626 0.616 0.590 0.611 0.610 0.638 SDEV 0.000 0.108 0.110 0.128 0.152 0.133 0.130 0.146 0.123 SERR 0.000 0.063 0.045 0.028 0.033 0.022 0.019 0.022 0.018 EPS 0.806 0.876 0.928 0.926 0.934 0.934 0.940 0.940 0.946 NSS 2.7 4.4 6.2 7.5 8.8 9.8 10.0 10.0 10.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1681 1986 306 0.981 0.361 0.471 3.021 0.318 0.450 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.393 0.150 0.091 49 257 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.41 1.19 1.01 1.12 2.32 12.05 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.17 0.00 0.83 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.449 0.263 0.129 0.057 0.013 -0.089 -0.034 0.010 0.013 0.003 PACF 0.449 0.078 -0.018 -0.013 -0.016 -0.113 0.057 0.050 -0.006 -0.015 95% C.L. 0.114 0.135 0.142 0.143 0.144 0.144 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.145 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.208 0.451 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.369 0.198 0.064 -0.026 -0.073 -0.171 -0.057 0.012 0.040 0.008 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.369 2 0.343 0.071 3 0.346 0.083 -0.035 4 0.343 0.088 -0.014 -0.061 5 0.340 0.087 -0.009 -0.043 -0.052 6 0.333 0.081 -0.011 -0.031 -0.006 -0.135 7 0.343 0.082 -0.009 -0.030 -0.012 -0.159 0.070 8 0.339 0.091 -0.008 -0.028 -0.011 -0.164 0.050 0.060 9 0.337 0.090 -0.005 -0.028 -0.011 -0.163 0.048 0.053 0.019 10 0.338 0.093 -0.003 -0.036 -0.011 -0.165 0.048 0.057 0.035 -0.045 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2349.97 2307.10 2307.56 2309.19 2310.06 2311.23 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2307.59 2308.07 2308.97 2310.85 2312.23 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.369 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 13.64 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 115.79 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.369 0.136 0.050 0.019 0.007 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 757161 1 0.126 0.349 2 757162 1 0.034 0.177 3 757171 1 0.266 0.497 4 757172 1 0.218 0.453 5 757181 1 0.292 0.513 6 757182 1 0.191 0.429 7 757191 1 0.325 0.569 8 757192 1 0.257 0.491 9 757201 1 0.180 0.423 10 757202 1 0.174 0.412 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.206 0.431 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.085 0.108 MEDIAN 1 0.204 0.441 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.092 0.084 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.034 0.177 LOWER HINGE 1 0.174 0.412 UPPER HINGE 1 0.266 0.497 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.325 0.569 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 757161 1777 1971 195 1.000 0.424 0.541 3.543 0.500 -0.026 2 757162 1786 1968 183 1.000 0.465 0.497 3.652 0.557 -0.009 3 757171 1702 1986 285 1.000 0.391 0.663 3.932 0.445 -0.078 4 757172 1739 1986 248 1.000 0.418 0.651 3.754 0.496 -0.060 5 757181 1681 1986 306 1.000 0.366 0.298 2.903 0.453 -0.093 6 757182 1755 1986 232 1.000 0.377 0.120 2.538 0.467 -0.040 7 757191 1825 1982 158 1.000 0.390 1.072 4.677 0.408 -0.020 8 757192 1771 1982 212 1.000 0.386 0.652 3.795 0.452 -0.073 9 757201 1848 1982 135 1.000 0.317 0.431 4.065 0.340 0.033 10 757202 1831 1982 152 1.001 0.340 0.503 3.306 0.376 0.043 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 1.000 0.387 0.543 3.616 0.449 -0.033 STANDARD DEVIATION 57 0.000 0.042 0.252 0.601 0.063 0.046 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 203 1.000 0.388 0.522 3.703 0.452 -0.033 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 90 0.000 0.052 0.221 0.626 0.088 0.064 MINIMUM VALUE 135 1.000 0.317 0.120 2.538 0.340 -0.093 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 158 1.000 0.366 0.431 3.306 0.408 -0.073 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 1.000 0.418 0.652 3.932 0.496 -0.009 MAXIMUM VALUE 306 1.001 0.465 1.072 4.677 0.557 0.043 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 45 0.626 0.071 0.011 0.296 4.495 0.458 0.818 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.458 SERIES 757161 AND 757202 141 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.818 SERIES 757181 AND 757182 232 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.08 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 3. 6. 21. 21. 36. 45. 45. 45. RBAR 0.631 0.680 0.700 0.631 0.646 0.639 0.636 0.649 0.693 SDEV 0.000 0.123 0.090 0.103 0.103 0.090 0.106 0.107 0.098 SERR 0.000 0.071 0.037 0.022 0.022 0.015 0.016 0.016 0.015 EPS 0.823 0.904 0.935 0.928 0.942 0.946 0.946 0.949 0.958 NSS 2.7 4.4 6.2 7.5 8.8 9.8 10.0 10.0 10.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1681 1986 306 0.989 0.320 0.457 3.083 0.374 -0.043 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.288 0.113 0.091 47 259 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.60 1.70 1.02 1.17 2.87 23.80 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.17 0.00 0.83 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.042 0.082 -0.002 0.009 0.030 -0.105 -0.015 0.007 0.011 0.021 PACF -0.042 0.081 0.004 0.002 0.030 -0.104 -0.028 0.023 0.015 0.021 95% C.L. 0.114 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 0.081 0.001 0.010 0.025 -0.104 -0.019 0.007 0.012 0.020 PACF 0.003 0.081 0.001 0.003 0.025 -0.106 -0.023 0.024 0.015 0.020 95% C.L. 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.007 0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1681 1986 306 0.988 0.349 0.436 3.053 0.316 0.395 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.394 0.212 0.078 0.030 -0.006 -0.095 -0.047 -0.009 0.008 0.002 PACF 0.394 0.067 -0.031 -0.003 -0.019 -0.103 0.030 0.031 0.006 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.114 0.131 0.135 0.136 0.136 0.136 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.137 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.161 0.396 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.22 MINUTES