RUN: SWIT003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT170E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT170E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 779 1 Crete de la Neige, GE WIDTH_EARLY PIMU - 779 2 Switzerland krummholz pine 1700 4616-556 1671 1987 - 779 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 779041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1826 1826 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 779051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1924 1924 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 779141 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1983 1985 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 779142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1893 1898 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 779172 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 29 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 779011 1671 1947 277 0.496 0.272 1.156 6.473 0.246 0.757 2 779012 1697 1987 291 0.571 0.205 0.998 4.427 0.231 0.676 3 779041 1760 1987 228 0.475 0.298 0.663 2.311 0.295 0.849 4 779042 1764 1987 224 0.581 0.417 1.496 4.475 0.279 0.856 5 779051 1811 1987 177 0.749 0.246 0.228 3.159 0.270 0.489 6 779052 1832 1987 156 0.585 0.242 0.976 4.623 0.266 0.733 7 779061 1894 1987 94 0.857 0.313 0.741 3.796 0.252 0.633 8 779081 1794 1987 194 0.548 0.248 1.082 4.289 0.251 0.749 9 779082 1776 1987 212 0.544 0.225 0.666 3.273 0.284 0.630 10 779111 1852 1987 136 0.457 0.202 1.539 5.316 0.235 0.783 11 779112 1796 1987 192 0.534 0.183 0.439 2.892 0.247 0.623 12 779121 1862 1987 126 0.806 0.281 0.544 3.076 0.204 0.695 13 779141 1788 1987 200 0.502 0.205 1.306 4.876 0.252 0.542 14 779142 1781 1987 207 0.566 0.222 0.920 4.374 0.241 0.726 15 779151 1791 1987 197 0.694 0.279 0.698 4.905 0.262 0.606 16 779152 1781 1987 207 0.453 0.187 0.278 2.561 0.269 0.683 17 779161 1846 1987 142 0.774 0.296 0.448 2.793 0.213 0.717 18 779162 1852 1987 136 0.739 0.339 1.105 5.592 0.261 0.743 19 779171 1792 1987 196 0.727 0.257 0.297 2.987 0.192 0.795 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 779172 1792 1987 196 0.511 0.307 1.234 3.908 0.276 0.848 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1671 TO 1987 317 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 187 0.608 0.261 0.841 4.005 0.251 0.707 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.126 0.058 0.400 1.118 0.027 0.099 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 195 0.569 0.252 0.830 4.098 0.252 0.722 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.226 0.083 0.635 1.718 0.031 0.139 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.453 0.183 0.228 2.311 0.192 0.489 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 149 0.507 0.214 0.496 3.031 0.238 0.631 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 0.733 0.297 1.130 4.750 0.270 0.770 MAXIMUM VALUE 291 0.857 0.417 1.539 6.473 0.295 0.856 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.319 0.189 0.014 -0.282 2.928 -0.297 0.808 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.297 SERIES 779061 AND 779081 94 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.808 SERIES 779041 AND 779042 224 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 1. 1. 10. 78. 91. 153. 171. 171. 171. RBAR 0.517 0.544 0.209 0.367 0.299 0.225 0.230 0.362 0.195 0.330 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.205 0.223 0.229 0.246 0.179 0.261 0.214 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.065 0.025 0.024 0.020 0.014 0.020 0.016 EPS 0.682 0.770 0.642 0.873 0.862 0.832 0.851 0.918 0.828 0.905 NSS 2.0 2.8 6.8 11.9 14.6 17.1 19.1 19.7 19.9 19.4 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1671 1987 317 0.613 0.188 0.942 4.929 0.169 0.725 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.150 0.104 0.151 83 234 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.71 1.00 1.08 1.79 6.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 196. 60. 94. 149. 210. 291. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.722 0.615 0.475 0.348 0.292 0.241 0.188 0.200 0.186 0.235 PACF 0.722 0.195 -0.052 -0.074 0.068 0.036 -0.033 0.096 0.028 0.130 95% C.L. 0.112 0.161 0.188 0.203 0.210 0.215 0.218 0.220 0.223 0.225 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.545 0.590 0.187 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 779011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00213795 0.79349238 2 779012 1 0.18890263 0.00784962 0.00000000 0.49736288 3 779041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00352581 0.87945044 4 779042 1 1.41461289 0.02046815 0.00000000 0.27875051 5 779051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00052625 0.70075780 6 779052 1 0.51641279 0.01740702 0.00000000 0.40870434 7 779061 1 0.80196363 0.04793269 0.00000000 0.68539870 8 779081 1 0.67828637 0.03337673 0.00000000 0.44497901 9 779082 1 0.54484367 0.00727429 0.00000000 0.26731712 10 779111 1 0.52506208 0.01160352 0.00000000 0.19410174 11 779112 1 0.33725953 0.00745599 0.00000000 0.35497540 12 779121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00055979 0.77048510 13 779141 1 0.45671302 0.01146367 0.00000000 0.32257286 14 779142 1 0.55458051 0.01797975 0.00000000 0.41857156 15 779151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00057559 0.63738167 16 779152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00056987 0.51182729 17 779161 1 0.88492036 0.00306642 0.00000000 0.05752273 18 779162 1 0.77710831 0.00539454 0.00000000 0.18962777 19 779171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00219091 0.94299841 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 779172 1 0.76721430 0.01642939 0.00000000 0.24669261 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 779011 1671 1947 277 0.986 0.392 0.718 4.256 0.246 0.655 2 779012 1697 1987 291 1.000 0.342 0.775 3.788 0.230 0.650 3 779041 1760 1987 228 1.065 0.601 2.765 15.100 0.293 0.608 4 779042 1764 1987 224 1.006 0.384 0.581 3.692 0.277 0.592 5 779051 1811 1987 177 1.000 0.326 0.204 3.165 0.268 0.475 6 779052 1832 1987 156 1.000 0.348 0.405 2.868 0.265 0.608 7 779061 1894 1987 94 1.000 0.289 0.253 3.825 0.248 0.475 8 779081 1794 1987 194 0.999 0.372 1.109 4.955 0.250 0.626 9 779082 1776 1987 212 1.000 0.356 0.737 4.155 0.283 0.521 10 779111 1852 1987 136 1.001 0.317 0.377 2.816 0.234 0.631 11 779112 1796 1987 192 1.000 0.316 0.391 3.238 0.246 0.564 12 779121 1862 1987 126 1.000 0.347 0.488 2.975 0.202 0.687 13 779141 1788 1987 200 1.000 0.311 0.522 3.601 0.254 0.391 14 779142 1781 1987 207 1.000 0.305 0.461 3.512 0.241 0.551 15 779151 1791 1987 197 1.000 0.403 0.833 5.916 0.260 0.582 16 779152 1781 1987 207 1.000 0.400 0.178 2.621 0.268 0.672 17 779161 1846 1987 142 1.000 0.369 0.462 2.656 0.212 0.703 18 779162 1852 1987 136 1.000 0.437 0.963 4.469 0.260 0.705 19 779171 1792 1987 196 1.000 0.324 0.492 3.514 0.192 0.748 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 779172 1792 1987 196 1.002 0.439 0.671 3.019 0.279 0.698 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 189 1.003 0.369 0.669 4.207 0.250 0.607 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.015 0.069 0.551 2.692 0.027 0.091 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 196 1.000 0.352 0.507 3.558 0.252 0.617 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.000 0.075 0.358 1.208 0.031 0.122 MINIMUM VALUE 93 0.986 0.289 0.178 2.621 0.192 0.391 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 149 1.000 0.321 0.398 2.997 0.237 0.557 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.396 0.756 4.205 0.268 0.679 MAXIMUM VALUE 291 1.065 0.601 2.765 15.100 0.293 0.748 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 779011 -67 185 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 779012 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 779041 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 779042 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 779051 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 779052 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 779061 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 779081 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 779082 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 779111 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 779112 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 779121 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 779141 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 779142 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 779151 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 779152 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 779161 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 779162 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 779171 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 779172 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 779011 1671 1947 277 0.995 0.350 0.735 5.514 0.245 0.548 2 779012 1697 1987 291 0.997 0.323 0.734 3.920 0.230 0.607 3 779041 1760 1987 228 0.994 0.419 0.675 3.463 0.293 0.569 4 779042 1764 1987 224 0.996 0.351 0.426 3.389 0.278 0.539 5 779051 1811 1987 177 0.997 0.315 0.286 3.206 0.268 0.430 6 779052 1832 1987 156 0.998 0.333 0.293 2.712 0.265 0.573 7 779061 1894 1987 94 0.996 0.274 0.265 4.149 0.248 0.413 8 779081 1794 1987 194 0.995 0.333 0.918 4.003 0.251 0.525 9 779082 1776 1987 212 0.999 0.353 0.747 4.166 0.283 0.513 10 779111 1852 1987 136 0.997 0.295 0.348 2.793 0.234 0.571 11 779112 1796 1987 192 0.995 0.288 0.254 2.782 0.246 0.484 12 779121 1862 1987 126 0.989 0.272 0.444 2.973 0.202 0.537 13 779141 1788 1987 200 0.997 0.298 0.511 3.861 0.254 0.332 14 779142 1781 1987 207 0.999 0.293 0.342 3.392 0.241 0.513 15 779151 1791 1987 197 0.992 0.379 1.009 7.292 0.260 0.525 16 779152 1781 1987 207 0.992 0.375 0.190 2.772 0.268 0.611 17 779161 1846 1987 142 0.984 0.287 0.646 3.209 0.211 0.573 18 779162 1852 1987 136 0.993 0.398 0.740 3.874 0.259 0.669 19 779171 1792 1987 196 0.992 0.277 -0.002 2.571 0.191 0.674 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 779172 1792 1987 196 0.991 0.412 0.657 3.051 0.279 0.665 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 189 0.994 0.331 0.511 3.655 0.250 0.543 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.004 0.047 0.266 1.106 0.027 0.086 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 196 0.995 0.328 0.477 3.391 0.252 0.543 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.005 0.073 0.445 1.078 0.031 0.077 MINIMUM VALUE 93 0.984 0.272 -0.002 2.571 0.191 0.332 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 149 0.992 0.290 0.289 2.883 0.237 0.513 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 0.997 0.364 0.735 3.962 0.268 0.590 MAXIMUM VALUE 291 0.999 0.419 1.009 7.292 0.293 0.674 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.231 0.136 0.010 -0.181 2.843 -0.147 0.547 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.147 SERIES 779061 AND 779081 94 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.547 SERIES 779041 AND 779042 224 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 1. 1. 10. 78. 91. 153. 171. 171. 171. RBAR 0.528 0.473 0.272 0.371 0.279 0.267 0.247 0.232 0.176 0.318 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.210 0.231 0.200 0.208 0.200 0.241 0.204 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.066 0.026 0.021 0.017 0.015 0.018 0.016 EPS 0.691 0.715 0.718 0.875 0.850 0.862 0.862 0.856 0.810 0.900 NSS 2.0 2.8 6.8 11.9 14.6 17.1 19.1 19.7 19.9 19.4 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1671 1987 317 0.990 0.243 0.240 3.143 0.191 0.535 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.228 0.142 0.102 73 244 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.76 1.00 1.06 1.82 7.35 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.533 0.396 0.230 0.147 0.021 -0.044 -0.095 -0.060 -0.105 -0.074 PACF 0.533 0.157 -0.045 -0.006 -0.096 -0.053 -0.043 0.051 -0.067 0.011 95% C.L. 0.112 0.141 0.154 0.158 0.160 0.160 0.160 0.161 0.161 0.162 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.303 0.451 0.155 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.396 0.256 0.127 0.144 -0.030 -0.079 -0.087 -0.008 -0.066 -0.024 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.396 2 0.349 0.118 3 0.351 0.122 -0.012 4 0.352 0.112 -0.043 0.088 5 0.364 0.105 -0.027 0.138 -0.144 6 0.354 0.115 -0.028 0.146 -0.118 -0.072 7 0.353 0.114 -0.026 0.146 -0.116 -0.067 -0.014 8 0.354 0.118 -0.020 0.137 -0.115 -0.073 -0.035 0.058 9 0.357 0.116 -0.023 0.132 -0.108 -0.074 -0.029 0.076 -0.048 10 0.358 0.114 -0.022 0.133 -0.105 -0.077 -0.029 0.073 -0.057 0.024 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2408.66 2356.55 2354.10 2356.05 2355.60 2350.97 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2351.33 2353.27 2354.18 2355.44 2357.25 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.349 0.118 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 16.87 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 120.29 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.349 0.240 0.125 0.072 0.040 0.022 0.013 0.007 0.004 0.0022 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 779011 2 0.340 0.432 0.214 2 779012 2 0.375 0.581 0.047 3 779041 2 0.340 0.540 0.067 4 779042 2 0.295 0.501 0.071 5 779051 2 0.200 0.381 0.116 6 779052 2 0.364 0.459 0.203 7 779061 2 0.200 0.362 0.133 8 779081 2 0.277 0.544 -0.034 9 779082 2 0.265 0.512 0.005 10 779111 2 0.339 0.557 0.031 11 779112 2 0.236 0.499 -0.028 12 779121 2 0.333 0.434 0.199 13 779141 2 0.116 0.323 0.039 14 779142 2 0.267 0.501 0.027 15 779151 2 0.308 0.441 0.160 16 779152 2 0.411 0.482 0.212 17 779161 2 0.339 0.558 0.032 18 779162 2 0.466 0.760 -0.130 19 779171 2 0.500 0.498 0.265 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 779172 2 0.471 0.556 0.167 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.322 0.496 0.090 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.097 0.094 0.103 MEDIAN 2 0.336 0.500 0.069 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.104 0.112 0.153 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.116 0.323 -0.130 LOWER HINGE 2 0.266 0.438 0.029 UPPER HINGE 2 0.369 0.550 0.183 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.500 0.760 0.265 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 779011 1671 1947 277 1.001 0.283 0.766 7.283 0.279 0.040 2 779012 1697 1987 291 1.000 0.256 0.481 3.233 0.283 -0.001 3 779041 1760 1987 228 1.000 0.340 0.546 4.286 0.363 0.005 4 779042 1764 1987 224 1.000 0.295 0.464 3.456 0.336 -0.002 5 779051 1811 1987 177 1.000 0.282 0.561 4.445 0.304 0.005 6 779052 1832 1987 156 1.000 0.267 0.187 3.088 0.303 0.017 7 779061 1894 1987 94 1.000 0.246 0.020 3.957 0.279 0.011 8 779081 1794 1987 194 1.000 0.283 0.817 4.341 0.310 -0.001 9 779082 1776 1987 212 1.000 0.302 0.477 3.613 0.344 0.001 10 779111 1852 1987 136 1.000 0.241 0.125 3.047 0.281 -0.001 11 779112 1796 1987 192 1.000 0.251 0.380 3.339 0.282 0.000 12 779121 1862 1987 126 1.000 0.223 0.383 2.689 0.234 0.023 13 779141 1788 1987 200 1.000 0.280 0.461 5.369 0.294 -0.006 14 779142 1781 1987 207 1.000 0.251 0.294 3.324 0.285 0.001 15 779151 1791 1987 197 1.003 0.307 1.104 8.770 0.296 0.028 16 779152 1781 1987 207 1.000 0.290 0.499 3.400 0.312 -0.026 17 779161 1846 1987 142 1.000 0.234 0.442 3.321 0.267 -0.007 18 779162 1852 1987 136 1.000 0.292 0.698 4.267 0.331 0.009 19 779171 1792 1987 196 1.000 0.196 -0.394 2.970 0.231 -0.013 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 779172 1792 1987 196 1.000 0.302 0.322 3.775 0.343 -0.024 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 189 1.000 0.271 0.432 4.099 0.298 0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.001 0.034 0.313 1.504 0.034 0.016 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 196 1.000 0.281 0.463 3.534 0.295 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.000 0.045 0.245 1.037 0.041 0.014 MINIMUM VALUE 93 1.000 0.196 -0.394 2.689 0.231 -0.026 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 149 1.000 0.249 0.308 3.277 0.280 -0.004 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.294 0.553 4.314 0.322 0.010 MAXIMUM VALUE 291 1.003 0.340 1.104 8.770 0.363 0.040 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.309 0.102 0.007 -0.238 3.042 -0.002 0.584 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.002 SERIES 779061 AND 779081 94 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.584 SERIES 779041 AND 779042 224 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 1. 1. 10. 78. 91. 153. 171. 171. 171. RBAR 0.258 0.159 0.423 0.361 0.295 0.359 0.381 0.348 0.330 0.374 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.157 0.201 0.158 0.148 0.132 0.137 0.129 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.050 0.023 0.017 0.012 0.010 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.411 0.346 0.833 0.870 0.860 0.906 0.922 0.913 0.907 0.920 NSS 2.0 2.8 6.8 11.9 14.6 17.1 19.1 19.7 19.9 19.4 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1671 1987 317 0.997 0.190 0.077 3.395 0.214 -0.007 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.184 0.124 0.068 77 240 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.65 1.01 1.11 1.76 8.08 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.007 0.045 0.000 0.024 -0.040 -0.035 -0.092 0.049 -0.108 -0.064 PACF -0.007 0.045 0.001 0.022 -0.040 -0.038 -0.089 0.051 -0.099 -0.070 95% C.L. 0.112 0.112 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.114 0.114 0.115 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.001 0.003 0.023 -0.037 -0.039 -0.085 0.053 -0.105 -0.072 PACF 0.000 -0.001 0.003 0.023 -0.037 -0.039 -0.086 0.053 -0.104 -0.071 95% C.L. 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.113 0.113 0.114 0.114 0.115 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 0.000 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1671 1987 317 0.997 0.208 0.286 3.289 0.184 0.394 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.393 0.250 0.125 0.064 -0.024 -0.061 -0.104 -0.036 -0.119 -0.080 PACF 0.393 0.114 -0.008 -0.007 -0.068 -0.046 -0.063 0.050 -0.105 -0.005 95% C.L. 0.112 0.128 0.134 0.136 0.136 0.136 0.137 0.138 0.138 0.139 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.165 0.349 0.113 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.29 MINUTES