RUN: SWIT003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT171E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT171E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 780 1 Suaiza, TI WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 780 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1520 4626-852 1695 1988 - 780 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 8 780051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1807 1807 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 780141 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1837 1837 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 780142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1882 1882 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 780011 1749 1988 240 0.712 0.315 1.008 4.732 0.202 0.786 2 780012 1739 1988 250 0.736 0.369 1.606 6.742 0.221 0.814 3 780021 1839 1988 150 1.030 0.372 1.189 6.526 0.171 0.775 4 780022 1842 1987 146 1.117 0.391 1.171 4.896 0.169 0.812 5 780032 1764 1988 225 0.781 0.627 1.661 8.800 0.192 0.849 6 780041 1755 1987 233 0.671 0.407 0.516 2.581 0.222 0.910 7 780042 1751 1988 238 0.621 0.440 1.066 4.278 0.243 0.877 8 780051 1695 1988 294 0.686 0.373 0.110 2.434 0.176 0.897 9 780052 1798 1988 191 1.011 0.470 0.661 3.324 0.188 0.830 10 780061 1726 1987 262 0.444 0.217 0.568 3.710 0.212 0.860 11 780062 1796 1988 193 0.898 0.175 0.404 3.055 0.138 0.575 12 780071 1750 1987 238 0.925 0.491 1.460 4.886 0.154 0.908 13 780072 1751 1988 238 0.880 0.267 0.412 3.408 0.157 0.765 14 780091 1756 1988 233 1.063 0.427 0.063 2.444 0.140 0.897 15 780092 1755 1988 234 0.908 0.343 0.439 3.193 0.136 0.907 16 780102 1735 1987 253 0.535 0.314 1.671 5.379 0.193 0.906 17 780121 1826 1988 163 0.995 0.424 0.296 3.841 0.185 0.835 18 780122 1836 1988 153 1.002 0.350 0.484 3.808 0.167 0.783 19 780141 1793 1988 196 0.800 0.324 0.822 5.100 0.141 0.847 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 780142 1749 1988 240 0.893 0.289 0.820 4.276 0.131 0.846 21 780151 1751 1987 237 0.640 0.640 2.954 12.092 0.223 0.910 22 780152 1720 1964 245 0.845 0.692 3.083 13.109 0.201 0.907 23 780181 1827 1988 162 1.189 0.390 0.593 3.782 0.168 0.766 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1695 TO 1988 294 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 218 0.843 0.396 1.002 5.061 0.179 0.838 STANDARD DEVIATION 40 0.191 0.127 0.795 2.815 0.032 0.077 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 234 0.880 0.373 0.820 4.276 0.176 0.847 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 47 0.299 0.114 0.863 1.874 0.046 0.102 MINIMUM VALUE 146 0.444 0.175 0.063 2.434 0.131 0.575 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 192 0.699 0.320 0.461 3.366 0.155 0.799 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 239 0.999 0.433 1.324 5.240 0.201 0.902 MAXIMUM VALUE 293 1.189 0.692 3.083 13.109 0.243 0.910 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.203 0.268 0.017 -0.287 3.196 -0.618 0.910 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.618 SERIES 780021 AND 780052 150 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.910 SERIES 780091 AND 780092 233 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.81 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 1. 28. 105. 153. 153. 253. 253. 253. 231. RBAR 0.777 0.566 0.262 0.119 0.131 0.072 0.175 0.081 0.200 SDEV 0.000 0.227 0.442 0.381 0.396 0.299 0.323 0.308 0.287 SERR 0.000 0.043 0.043 0.031 0.032 0.019 0.020 0.019 0.019 EPS 0.969 0.950 0.856 0.726 0.769 0.641 0.830 0.669 0.850 NSS 8.9 14.6 16.8 19.6 22.1 23.0 23.0 23.0 22.8 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1695 1988 294 0.787 0.247 0.604 3.673 0.126 0.831 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.357 0.240 0.135 76 218 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.54 1.33 1.01 1.19 2.51 6.13 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 234. 48. 146. 192. 240. 294. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.828 0.721 0.651 0.582 0.546 0.574 0.551 0.516 0.435 0.395 PACF 0.828 0.111 0.092 0.006 0.090 0.233 -0.034 -0.019 -0.180 0.068 95% C.L. 0.117 0.180 0.215 0.241 0.259 0.274 0.290 0.304 0.316 0.324 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.712 0.744 0.023 0.104 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 780011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00034745 0.67059064 2 780012 1 1.24303269 0.07310295 0.00000000 0.67052120 3 780021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00250470 0.84069532 4 780022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00246163 0.93605667 5 780032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00403400 0.32540277 6 780041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00295864 0.32461151 7 780042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00156588 0.43342409 8 780051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00228697 0.34705704 9 780052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00196929 1.20030868 10 780061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00120932 0.28463894 11 780062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00044035 0.85505831 12 780071 1 2.07148290 0.05257598 0.00000000 0.76356190 13 780072 1 0.53391510 0.04716884 0.00000000 0.83347058 14 780091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00235260 0.78796434 15 780092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00057775 0.84002054 16 780102 1 0.59421384 0.01141896 0.00000000 0.34204546 17 780121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00389219 0.67587137 18 780122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019176 0.98745698 19 780141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00189049 0.61257911 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 780142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00190410 0.66309440 21 780151 1 3.48635960 0.05516138 0.00000000 0.38090926 22 780152 1 2.00029349 0.02104425 0.00000000 0.46339342 23 780181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00474614 0.80226362 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 780011 1749 1988 240 1.000 0.448 1.105 4.848 0.201 0.784 2 780012 1739 1988 250 1.000 0.459 2.123 11.534 0.220 0.794 3 780021 1839 1988 150 1.002 0.389 2.623 13.493 0.170 0.758 4 780022 1842 1987 146 1.001 0.367 2.216 9.987 0.168 0.802 5 780032 1764 1988 225 1.078 1.229 6.165 59.169 0.191 0.708 6 780041 1755 1987 233 1.038 0.670 1.965 10.140 0.221 0.898 7 780042 1751 1988 238 1.018 0.778 2.139 10.771 0.242 0.845 8 780051 1695 1988 294 1.027 0.675 2.125 9.639 0.176 0.884 9 780052 1798 1988 191 0.998 0.422 0.303 2.988 0.187 0.810 10 780061 1726 1987 262 1.004 0.486 0.929 4.423 0.211 0.841 11 780062 1796 1988 193 1.000 0.193 0.414 3.198 0.137 0.567 12 780071 1750 1987 238 0.999 0.389 1.209 4.515 0.153 0.862 13 780072 1751 1988 238 1.000 0.285 0.362 3.541 0.156 0.742 14 780091 1756 1988 233 1.003 0.416 1.048 6.195 0.140 0.873 15 780092 1755 1988 234 1.000 0.383 0.676 3.978 0.135 0.903 16 780102 1735 1987 253 1.001 0.432 0.562 2.951 0.192 0.837 17 780121 1826 1988 163 0.993 0.432 1.295 6.130 0.184 0.835 18 780122 1836 1988 153 1.000 0.351 0.529 3.861 0.166 0.780 19 780141 1793 1988 196 0.997 0.418 1.740 7.863 0.141 0.845 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 780142 1749 1988 240 1.003 0.320 1.965 10.123 0.130 0.824 21 780151 1751 1987 237 0.999 0.377 0.964 5.585 0.222 0.722 22 780152 1720 1964 245 1.004 0.350 0.617 4.621 0.200 0.730 23 780181 1827 1988 162 1.000 0.278 1.016 4.877 0.167 0.652 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 218 1.007 0.459 1.482 8.888 0.179 0.795 STANDARD DEVIATION 40 0.019 0.213 1.238 11.405 0.032 0.081 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 234 1.000 0.416 1.105 5.585 0.176 0.810 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 48 0.004 0.094 1.398 5.854 0.046 0.095 MINIMUM VALUE 146 0.993 0.193 0.303 2.951 0.130 0.567 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 192 1.000 0.359 0.647 4.200 0.155 0.750 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 240 1.003 0.453 2.044 10.055 0.201 0.845 MAXIMUM VALUE 294 1.078 1.229 6.165 59.169 0.242 0.903 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 780011 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 780012 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 780021 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 780022 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 780032 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 780041 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 780042 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 780051 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 780052 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 780061 -67 175 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 780062 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 780071 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 780072 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 780091 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 780092 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 780102 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 780121 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 780122 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 780141 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 780142 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 780151 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 780152 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 780181 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 780011 1749 1988 240 0.975 0.349 0.937 4.921 0.201 0.701 2 780012 1739 1988 250 0.994 0.437 2.346 12.993 0.219 0.780 3 780021 1839 1988 150 0.989 0.241 1.328 8.573 0.170 0.556 4 780022 1842 1987 146 0.991 0.232 0.625 3.634 0.167 0.606 5 780032 1764 1988 225 0.988 0.424 1.921 11.223 0.191 0.691 6 780041 1755 1987 233 0.969 0.382 0.011 3.050 0.220 0.786 7 780042 1751 1988 238 0.975 0.405 0.249 3.289 0.242 0.768 8 780051 1695 1988 294 0.958 0.376 0.746 4.749 0.176 0.834 9 780052 1798 1988 191 0.993 0.389 1.269 6.657 0.186 0.762 10 780061 1726 1987 262 0.988 0.445 1.014 4.945 0.211 0.831 11 780062 1796 1988 193 0.998 0.176 0.213 3.164 0.137 0.503 12 780071 1750 1987 238 0.995 0.240 0.426 2.743 0.153 0.662 13 780072 1751 1988 238 0.996 0.260 0.461 3.465 0.156 0.701 14 780091 1756 1988 233 0.977 0.260 0.398 3.156 0.139 0.775 15 780092 1755 1988 234 0.979 0.252 0.373 3.073 0.135 0.786 16 780102 1735 1987 253 0.980 0.337 0.263 3.190 0.192 0.761 17 780121 1826 1988 163 0.990 0.315 1.039 5.187 0.183 0.715 18 780122 1836 1988 153 0.989 0.303 0.764 4.501 0.165 0.706 19 780141 1793 1988 196 0.991 0.289 1.786 9.550 0.141 0.710 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 780142 1749 1988 240 0.993 0.230 1.213 5.106 0.131 0.719 21 780151 1751 1987 237 0.994 0.315 0.347 3.549 0.222 0.632 22 780152 1720 1964 245 0.997 0.331 0.572 4.717 0.200 0.706 23 780181 1827 1988 162 0.995 0.244 1.110 5.382 0.167 0.552 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 218 0.987 0.314 0.844 5.253 0.178 0.706 STANDARD DEVIATION 40 0.010 0.076 0.600 2.779 0.032 0.088 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 234 0.990 0.315 0.746 4.717 0.176 0.710 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 48 0.015 0.131 0.776 2.045 0.046 0.095 MINIMUM VALUE 146 0.958 0.176 0.011 2.743 0.131 0.503 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 192 0.979 0.248 0.385 3.239 0.155 0.676 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 240 0.994 0.379 1.161 5.284 0.200 0.772 MAXIMUM VALUE 294 0.998 0.445 2.346 12.993 0.242 0.834 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.126 0.196 0.012 0.338 3.447 -0.308 0.899 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.308 SERIES 780042 AND 780071 237 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.899 SERIES 780091 AND 780092 233 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.81 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 1. 28. 105. 153. 153. 253. 253. 253. 231. RBAR 0.573 0.259 0.179 0.148 0.083 0.099 0.163 0.093 0.223 SDEV 0.000 0.274 0.374 0.370 0.333 0.296 0.283 0.263 0.244 SERR 0.000 0.052 0.036 0.030 0.027 0.019 0.018 0.017 0.016 EPS 0.923 0.836 0.785 0.774 0.667 0.717 0.818 0.702 0.867 NSS 8.9 14.6 16.8 19.6 22.1 23.0 23.0 23.0 22.8 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1695 1988 294 0.981 0.193 -0.236 2.971 0.141 0.584 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.041 0.029 0.225 102 192 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.65 1.00 1.10 1.74 7.53 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.86 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.582 0.463 0.335 0.227 0.113 0.087 0.059 0.041 -0.023 -0.057 PACF 0.582 0.188 0.011 -0.034 -0.079 0.034 0.020 0.004 -0.083 -0.054 95% C.L. 0.117 0.151 0.169 0.178 0.182 0.183 0.183 0.184 0.184 0.184 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.366 0.474 0.190 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.518 0.398 0.289 0.177 0.058 0.038 0.032 0.067 0.043 0.065 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.518 2 0.427 0.176 3 0.420 0.159 0.039 4 0.422 0.166 0.056 -0.039 5 0.418 0.171 0.071 0.000 -0.095 6 0.420 0.171 0.070 -0.002 -0.101 0.017 7 0.419 0.175 0.070 -0.005 -0.108 0.001 0.037 8 0.416 0.175 0.079 -0.005 -0.113 -0.013 0.004 0.079 9 0.417 0.175 0.079 -0.007 -0.113 -0.012 0.007 0.086 -0.017 10 0.418 0.173 0.078 -0.006 -0.111 -0.011 0.006 0.082 -0.026 0.021 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2186.47 2096.42 2089.15 2090.70 2092.25 2091.61 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2093.53 2095.11 2095.28 2097.19 2099.05 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.427 0.176 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 29.15 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 141.15 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.427 0.359 0.228 0.161 0.109 0.075 0.051 0.035 0.024 0.0164 0.011 0.008 0.005 0.004 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 780011 2 0.524 0.555 0.212 2 780012 2 0.620 0.819 -0.050 3 780021 2 0.332 0.466 0.165 4 780022 2 0.424 0.458 0.246 5 780032 2 0.489 0.607 0.122 6 780041 2 0.642 0.594 0.245 7 780042 2 0.615 0.615 0.201 8 780051 2 0.717 0.652 0.222 9 780052 2 0.596 0.659 0.140 10 780061 2 0.704 0.681 0.181 11 780062 2 0.285 0.439 0.133 12 780071 2 0.476 0.509 0.234 13 780072 2 0.507 0.588 0.164 14 780091 2 0.630 0.623 0.205 15 780092 2 0.640 0.661 0.166 16 780102 2 0.617 0.641 0.169 17 780121 2 0.523 0.701 0.023 18 780122 2 0.537 0.581 0.192 19 780141 2 0.525 0.589 0.175 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 780142 2 0.519 0.667 0.072 21 780151 2 0.468 0.459 0.274 22 780152 2 0.527 0.592 0.172 23 780181 2 0.330 0.453 0.182 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.532 0.592 0.167 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.114 0.095 0.073 MEDIAN 2 0.525 0.594 0.175 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.136 0.123 0.057 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.285 0.439 -0.050 LOWER HINGE 2 0.482 0.532 0.152 UPPER HINGE 2 0.618 0.655 0.209 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.717 0.819 0.274 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 780011 1749 1988 240 1.000 0.242 0.628 4.915 0.253 -0.024 2 780012 1739 1988 250 1.000 0.273 0.825 5.585 0.301 -0.007 3 780021 1839 1988 150 1.000 0.197 0.979 5.964 0.204 0.009 4 780022 1842 1987 146 1.000 0.178 0.331 3.596 0.202 -0.042 5 780032 1764 1988 225 1.000 0.304 4.016 38.453 0.234 -0.024 6 780041 1755 1987 233 1.000 0.229 0.363 2.896 0.249 0.000 7 780042 1751 1988 238 1.000 0.253 0.157 4.364 0.280 -0.027 8 780051 1695 1988 294 1.000 0.200 1.320 9.474 0.211 -0.011 9 780052 1798 1988 191 1.000 0.247 0.731 6.809 0.242 -0.005 10 780061 1726 1987 262 1.000 0.243 1.280 6.655 0.242 0.016 11 780062 1796 1988 193 1.000 0.150 0.118 3.814 0.169 0.019 12 780071 1750 1987 238 1.000 0.174 0.280 4.155 0.195 -0.017 13 780072 1751 1988 238 1.000 0.182 0.211 4.236 0.201 -0.006 14 780091 1756 1988 233 1.000 0.157 0.077 3.849 0.173 -0.013 15 780092 1755 1988 234 1.000 0.151 0.168 3.890 0.165 -0.006 16 780102 1735 1987 253 1.000 0.210 0.404 3.258 0.234 -0.037 17 780121 1826 1988 163 1.000 0.219 1.180 7.073 0.225 0.001 18 780122 1836 1988 153 1.000 0.204 0.936 5.237 0.213 -0.028 19 780141 1793 1988 196 1.000 0.199 2.592 16.397 0.181 -0.007 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 780142 1749 1988 240 1.000 0.160 1.043 5.402 0.172 -0.002 21 780151 1751 1987 237 1.000 0.235 0.203 3.421 0.267 -0.055 22 780152 1720 1964 245 1.000 0.226 0.495 4.465 0.247 0.000 23 780181 1827 1988 162 1.000 0.200 1.288 6.608 0.198 -0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 218 1.000 0.210 0.853 6.979 0.220 -0.012 STANDARD DEVIATION 40 0.000 0.040 0.903 7.420 0.037 0.018 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 234 1.000 0.204 0.628 4.915 0.213 -0.007 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 48 0.000 0.058 0.866 2.762 0.048 0.023 MINIMUM VALUE 146 1.000 0.150 0.077 2.896 0.165 -0.055 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 192 1.000 0.180 0.246 3.870 0.197 -0.024 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 240 1.000 0.238 1.112 6.632 0.245 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 294 1.000 0.304 4.016 38.453 0.301 0.019 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.248 0.118 0.007 0.561 5.518 -0.023 0.831 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.023 SERIES 780011 AND 780042 238 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.831 SERIES 780091 AND 780092 233 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.81 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 1. 28. 105. 153. 153. 253. 253. 253. 231. RBAR 0.134 0.201 0.228 0.199 0.171 0.208 0.280 0.228 0.318 SDEV 0.000 0.244 0.205 0.203 0.203 0.178 0.179 0.154 0.160 SERR 0.000 0.046 0.020 0.016 0.016 0.011 0.011 0.010 0.011 EPS 0.579 0.786 0.832 0.830 0.820 0.858 0.899 0.872 0.914 NSS 8.9 14.6 16.8 19.6 22.1 23.0 23.0 23.0 22.8 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1695 1988 294 0.991 0.131 0.421 4.160 0.154 -0.109 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.182 0.102 0.048 116 178 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.79 1.00 1.10 1.89 8.77 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.86 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.108 -0.057 -0.006 -0.001 -0.152 0.008 0.007 0.063 -0.098 0.005 PACF -0.108 -0.070 -0.021 -0.009 -0.157 -0.030 -0.017 0.057 -0.093 -0.036 95% C.L. 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.123 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.017 -0.109 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.003 -0.032 -0.025 -0.155 -0.005 -0.002 0.055 -0.096 -0.012 PACF -0.001 -0.003 -0.032 -0.025 -0.156 -0.008 -0.006 0.045 -0.107 -0.038 95% C.L. 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 -0.001 -0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1695 1988 294 0.991 0.149 0.008 3.513 0.121 0.477 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.476 0.331 0.149 0.046 -0.078 -0.036 -0.047 -0.026 -0.105 -0.069 PACF 0.476 0.136 -0.069 -0.050 -0.111 0.063 -0.001 -0.002 -0.123 0.004 95% C.L. 0.117 0.141 0.151 0.153 0.153 0.154 0.154 0.154 0.154 0.155 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.245 0.412 0.135 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.32 MINUTES