RUN: SWIT003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT173E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT173E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 071 1 Obersaxen, Meierhof, GR WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 071 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1520 4644-905 1537 1995 - 071 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 22 071112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1818 1821 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 071011 1537 1993 457 0.587 0.378 1.307 4.939 0.224 0.903 2 071012 1537 1993 457 0.486 0.298 1.968 8.898 0.206 0.896 3 071021 1683 1995 313 0.704 0.227 0.451 2.978 0.170 0.788 4 071022 1658 1995 338 0.826 0.361 0.446 2.582 0.183 0.865 5 071031 1618 1995 378 0.729 0.349 1.497 5.050 0.180 0.867 6 071032 1619 1995 377 0.928 0.434 1.635 7.307 0.172 0.863 7 071041 1634 1995 362 0.841 0.488 0.760 2.870 0.176 0.925 8 071042 1640 1990 351 0.614 0.274 0.972 4.102 0.163 0.859 9 071051 1751 1995 245 0.930 0.458 1.502 5.348 0.136 0.922 10 071052 1751 1995 245 0.962 0.406 1.407 6.430 0.130 0.891 11 071061 1751 1995 245 0.876 0.620 1.274 4.080 0.186 0.934 12 071062 1746 1995 250 0.728 0.408 1.682 5.922 0.196 0.903 13 071071 1689 1995 307 0.637 0.549 2.697 12.036 0.237 0.895 14 071072 1679 1995 317 0.623 0.330 1.071 3.741 0.194 0.880 15 071081 1712 1995 284 1.110 0.664 0.881 3.338 0.217 0.887 16 071082 1697 1995 299 0.705 0.371 1.252 6.298 0.209 0.838 17 071091 1668 1995 328 0.786 0.633 1.901 6.482 0.224 0.932 18 071092 1665 1995 331 0.764 0.527 0.944 3.707 0.228 0.894 19 071101 1745 1995 251 0.838 0.461 0.491 2.649 0.170 0.946 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 071102 1745 1995 251 0.820 0.379 0.234 2.956 0.164 0.930 21 071111 1687 1995 309 0.866 0.639 0.762 2.319 0.249 0.947 22 071112 1688 1995 308 0.677 0.430 1.100 4.366 0.242 0.900 23 071121 1707 1995 289 0.831 0.493 1.002 3.854 0.210 0.877 24 071122 1705 1995 291 0.787 0.529 1.800 6.273 0.213 0.920 25 071131 1713 1995 283 1.408 0.965 1.857 7.347 0.217 0.858 26 071132 1716 1995 280 0.927 0.747 2.047 7.777 0.246 0.891 27 071141 1749 1995 247 1.090 0.442 1.232 4.719 0.156 0.857 28 071142 1749 1995 247 1.080 0.426 0.848 3.516 0.168 0.828 29 071151 1623 1995 373 0.609 0.423 2.002 7.366 0.183 0.931 30 071152 1624 1995 372 0.602 0.486 1.899 6.329 0.192 0.922 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1537 TO 1995 459 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 313 0.812 0.473 1.297 5.186 0.195 0.892 STANDARD DEVIATION 58 0.192 0.152 0.578 2.206 0.031 0.037 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 305 0.804 0.438 1.263 4.829 0.193 0.895 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 100 0.250 0.151 0.920 2.914 0.048 0.057 MINIMUM VALUE 245 0.486 0.227 0.234 2.319 0.130 0.788 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 251 0.677 0.378 0.881 3.516 0.170 0.865 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 351 0.927 0.529 1.800 6.430 0.217 0.922 MAXIMUM VALUE 457 1.408 0.965 2.697 12.036 0.249 0.947 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.098 0.344 0.016 0.192 2.085 -0.626 0.910 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.626 SERIES 071011 AND 071092 329 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.910 SERIES 071151 AND 071152 372 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.90 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1562. 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. CORR 1. 1. 1. 1. 28. 45. 120. 210. 231. 435. RBAR 0.860 0.833 0.613 0.953 0.264 0.152 0.110 0.101 0.147 0.231 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.299 0.379 0.330 0.374 0.314 0.348 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.057 0.056 0.030 0.026 0.021 0.017 EPS 0.925 0.909 0.852 0.993 0.783 0.726 0.709 0.736 0.832 0.900 NSS 2.0 2.0 3.6 6.8 10.1 14.7 19.8 24.6 28.7 30.0 YEAR 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. RBAR 0.251 0.271 0.165 0.175 0.138 0.138 0.226 SDEV 0.424 0.300 0.325 0.360 0.282 0.371 0.331 SERR 0.020 0.014 0.016 0.017 0.014 0.018 0.016 EPS 0.909 0.918 0.855 0.864 0.827 0.827 0.898 NSS 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1537 1995 459 0.692 0.267 0.144 4.509 0.139 0.874 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.714 0.517 0.017 183 276 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.40 0.83 1.00 1.15 1.98 8.36 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.11 0.45 0.89 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 308. 100. 245. 251. 351. 457. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.872 0.832 0.790 0.734 0.681 0.655 0.592 0.540 0.503 0.458 PACF 0.872 0.297 0.094 -0.045 -0.047 0.085 -0.102 -0.062 0.017 -0.006 95% C.L. 0.093 0.148 0.185 0.212 0.233 0.250 0.264 0.276 0.285 0.292 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.822 0.546 0.270 0.122 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 071011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00069153 0.74577767 2 071012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00039454 0.57606101 3 071021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00146942 0.93446857 4 071022 1 1.37092602 0.00411466 0.00000000 0.08704779 5 071031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00169635 0.40750957 6 071032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00223330 0.50596970 7 071041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00042407 0.76363873 8 071042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00100659 0.79123306 9 071051 1 1.88470578 0.04037749 0.00000000 0.74343801 10 071052 1 1.81440222 0.06961869 0.00000000 0.85904098 11 071061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00261783 0.55359918 12 071062 1 1.35065377 0.04208443 0.00000000 0.60219306 13 071071 1 0.61956257 0.01225587 0.00000000 0.47722244 14 071072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00119876 0.81334805 15 071081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00602450 0.25136837 16 071082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00279582 0.28551054 17 071091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00391845 0.14096442 18 071092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00454036 0.01025817 19 071101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00368360 0.37355506 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 071102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00299230 0.44296956 21 071111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00235031 0.50175345 22 071112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00107976 0.50370890 23 071121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00184135 0.56421566 24 071122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00084266 0.66436023 25 071131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00569503 0.59890234 26 071132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00329726 0.46419892 27 071141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00041911 1.03754425 28 071142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00350665 1.51494622 29 071151 1 1.63424230 0.02004158 0.00000000 0.39252421 30 071152 1 1.94731271 0.01685996 0.00000000 0.29519126 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 071011 1537 1993 457 0.996 0.572 0.837 3.720 0.223 0.885 2 071012 1537 1993 457 1.000 0.573 1.598 7.283 0.206 0.883 3 071021 1683 1995 313 1.001 0.269 0.487 3.508 0.169 0.677 4 071022 1658 1995 338 1.001 0.287 0.420 3.702 0.183 0.690 5 071031 1618 1995 378 1.020 0.443 1.504 5.979 0.180 0.826 6 071032 1619 1995 377 1.008 0.406 1.818 7.817 0.172 0.823 7 071041 1634 1995 362 0.999 0.582 0.807 2.966 0.176 0.925 8 071042 1640 1990 351 0.999 0.403 0.802 3.336 0.163 0.841 9 071051 1751 1995 245 0.999 0.327 1.289 4.210 0.135 0.866 10 071052 1751 1995 245 1.000 0.322 0.347 2.267 0.130 0.854 11 071061 1751 1995 245 1.025 0.795 1.982 7.572 0.186 0.900 12 071062 1746 1995 250 0.999 0.425 1.243 5.179 0.195 0.826 13 071071 1689 1995 307 0.999 0.795 2.345 10.176 0.236 0.850 14 071072 1679 1995 317 1.000 0.477 0.780 3.309 0.193 0.831 15 071081 1712 1995 284 1.005 0.433 0.376 3.087 0.217 0.788 16 071082 1697 1995 299 1.009 0.442 1.392 7.988 0.209 0.661 17 071091 1668 1995 328 1.012 0.570 1.480 4.891 0.224 0.855 18 071092 1665 1995 331 1.040 0.560 5.301 56.147 0.230 0.604 19 071101 1745 1995 251 1.040 0.609 1.415 5.933 0.169 0.945 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 071102 1745 1995 251 1.014 0.459 0.962 5.863 0.164 0.915 21 071111 1687 1995 309 0.986 0.663 0.715 2.563 0.248 0.934 22 071112 1688 1995 308 0.999 0.628 1.015 4.033 0.241 0.898 23 071121 1707 1995 289 0.996 0.574 1.325 5.152 0.209 0.857 24 071122 1705 1995 291 0.999 0.667 1.895 6.757 0.212 0.914 25 071131 1713 1995 283 0.984 0.546 2.341 11.944 0.216 0.812 26 071132 1716 1995 280 1.004 0.720 1.668 5.874 0.245 0.858 27 071141 1749 1995 247 1.000 0.402 1.181 4.595 0.156 0.851 28 071142 1749 1995 247 1.000 0.308 0.564 3.458 0.168 0.715 29 071151 1623 1995 373 1.000 0.378 1.165 5.016 0.182 0.824 30 071152 1624 1995 372 1.002 0.348 1.587 6.984 0.192 0.772 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 313 1.005 0.499 1.355 7.044 0.194 0.829 STANDARD DEVIATION 58 0.013 0.146 0.926 9.544 0.031 0.085 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 307 1.000 0.468 1.266 5.084 0.193 0.850 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 100 0.009 0.179 0.796 3.476 0.048 0.073 MINIMUM VALUE 245 0.984 0.269 0.347 2.267 0.130 0.604 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 251 0.999 0.402 0.802 3.508 0.169 0.812 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 351 1.008 0.582 1.598 6.984 0.217 0.885 MAXIMUM VALUE 457 1.040 0.795 5.301 56.147 0.248 0.945 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 071011 -67 306 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 071012 -67 306 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 071021 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 071022 -67 226 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 071031 -67 253 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 071032 -67 252 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 071041 -67 242 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 071042 -67 235 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 071051 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 071052 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 071061 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 071062 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 071071 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 071072 -67 212 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 071081 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 071082 -67 200 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 071091 -67 219 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 071092 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 071101 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 071102 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 071111 -67 207 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 071112 -67 206 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 071121 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 071122 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 071131 -67 189 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 071132 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 071141 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 071142 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 071151 -67 249 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 071152 -67 249 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 071011 1537 1993 457 0.983 0.540 1.352 6.559 0.223 0.852 2 071012 1537 1993 457 0.983 0.539 1.967 10.091 0.206 0.876 3 071021 1683 1995 313 0.995 0.238 0.356 3.414 0.169 0.598 4 071022 1658 1995 338 0.996 0.259 0.296 3.729 0.183 0.618 5 071031 1618 1995 378 0.996 0.260 0.602 3.346 0.179 0.605 6 071032 1619 1995 377 0.994 0.338 0.921 4.289 0.172 0.779 7 071041 1634 1995 362 0.983 0.479 1.405 6.009 0.176 0.869 8 071042 1640 1990 351 0.979 0.310 0.681 4.024 0.163 0.745 9 071051 1751 1995 245 0.996 0.202 0.137 2.461 0.135 0.636 10 071052 1751 1995 245 0.993 0.206 0.483 3.300 0.130 0.667 11 071061 1751 1995 245 0.981 0.361 0.492 2.624 0.184 0.810 12 071062 1746 1995 250 0.996 0.270 0.137 3.300 0.195 0.616 13 071071 1689 1995 307 0.949 0.520 2.039 8.686 0.236 0.806 14 071072 1679 1995 317 0.968 0.353 0.910 4.505 0.193 0.726 15 071081 1712 1995 284 0.982 0.376 0.366 3.478 0.217 0.723 16 071082 1697 1995 299 0.994 0.393 0.960 6.480 0.208 0.639 17 071091 1668 1995 328 0.977 0.435 1.131 4.391 0.224 0.786 18 071092 1665 1995 331 0.994 0.448 3.483 33.484 0.229 0.617 19 071101 1745 1995 251 0.967 0.267 -0.208 3.710 0.168 0.730 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 071102 1745 1995 251 0.976 0.309 -0.059 3.473 0.163 0.827 21 071111 1687 1995 309 0.965 0.472 0.252 2.586 0.248 0.856 22 071112 1688 1995 308 0.976 0.566 1.079 4.827 0.241 0.885 23 071121 1707 1995 289 0.973 0.447 1.562 7.164 0.210 0.805 24 071122 1705 1995 291 0.973 0.503 1.653 6.057 0.212 0.858 25 071131 1713 1995 283 0.985 0.436 1.769 9.002 0.216 0.755 26 071132 1716 1995 280 0.950 0.494 1.339 5.070 0.245 0.784 27 071141 1749 1995 247 0.991 0.334 0.921 3.648 0.156 0.800 28 071142 1749 1995 247 0.994 0.283 0.665 4.006 0.168 0.663 29 071151 1623 1995 373 0.993 0.254 0.370 3.415 0.182 0.622 30 071152 1624 1995 372 0.996 0.253 0.332 3.538 0.192 0.572 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 313 0.983 0.371 0.913 5.689 0.194 0.737 STANDARD DEVIATION 58 0.013 0.111 0.775 5.603 0.031 0.099 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 307 0.983 0.357 0.796 4.015 0.192 0.750 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 100 0.018 0.204 0.995 2.642 0.048 0.173 MINIMUM VALUE 245 0.949 0.202 -0.208 2.461 0.130 0.572 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 251 0.976 0.267 0.356 3.415 0.169 0.636 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 351 0.994 0.472 1.352 6.057 0.217 0.810 MAXIMUM VALUE 457 0.996 0.566 3.483 33.484 0.248 0.885 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.149 0.175 0.008 0.583 3.843 -0.293 0.786 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.293 SERIES 071042 AND 071102 246 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.786 SERIES 071111 AND 071112 308 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.90 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1562. 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. CORR 1. 1. 1. 1. 28. 45. 120. 210. 231. 435. RBAR 0.823 0.847 0.606 0.949 0.216 0.257 0.139 0.137 0.158 0.239 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.366 0.211 0.307 0.313 0.286 0.282 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.069 0.031 0.028 0.022 0.019 0.014 EPS 0.903 0.917 0.848 0.992 0.735 0.836 0.761 0.797 0.844 0.904 NSS 2.0 2.0 3.6 6.8 10.1 14.7 19.8 24.6 28.7 30.0 YEAR 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. RBAR 0.308 0.294 0.202 0.171 0.136 0.164 0.249 SDEV 0.321 0.296 0.296 0.286 0.281 0.304 0.318 SERR 0.015 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.013 0.015 0.015 EPS 0.930 0.926 0.884 0.861 0.826 0.855 0.909 NSS 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1537 1995 459 0.927 0.338 1.070 8.036 0.185 0.764 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.574 0.255 0.065 163 296 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.36 1.09 1.00 1.11 2.20 34.13 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.10 0.78 0.90 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.762 0.710 0.632 0.567 0.486 0.482 0.414 0.369 0.331 0.281 PACF 0.762 0.306 0.060 0.011 -0.057 0.130 -0.042 -0.036 -0.001 -0.043 95% C.L. 0.093 0.137 0.166 0.186 0.200 0.210 0.220 0.227 0.232 0.236 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.678 0.469 0.310 0.100 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.501 0.458 0.353 0.297 0.153 0.167 0.029 0.015 -0.015 -0.041 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.501 2 0.363 0.276 3 0.343 0.251 0.070 4 0.341 0.241 0.057 0.038 5 0.345 0.248 0.085 0.077 -0.115 6 0.351 0.244 0.081 0.065 -0.131 0.049 7 0.356 0.229 0.088 0.074 -0.103 0.089 -0.115 8 0.353 0.231 0.086 0.076 -0.101 0.094 -0.106 -0.024 9 0.354 0.232 0.085 0.076 -0.102 0.094 -0.108 -0.026 0.006 10 0.354 0.231 0.082 0.079 -0.105 0.096 -0.105 -0.019 0.017 -0.029 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 4010.00 3879.21 3844.76 3844.49 3845.84 3841.77 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3842.69 3838.61 3840.35 3842.33 3843.94 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.343 0.251 0.070 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 31.18 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 145.31 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.343 0.369 0.283 0.214 0.170 0.132 0.103 0.080 0.063 0.0489 0.038 0.030 0.023 0.018 0.014 0.011 0.009 0.007 0.005 0.0041 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 071011 3 0.794 0.589 0.232 0.102 2 071012 3 0.796 0.688 0.235 -0.013 3 071021 3 0.407 0.447 0.256 0.003 4 071022 3 0.425 0.446 0.225 0.061 5 071031 3 0.403 0.452 0.221 0.037 6 071032 3 0.622 0.643 0.075 0.117 7 071041 3 0.767 0.829 0.001 0.057 8 071042 3 0.633 0.587 0.190 0.062 9 071051 3 0.505 0.351 0.311 0.147 10 071052 3 0.515 0.415 0.203 0.195 11 071061 3 0.682 0.636 0.247 -0.030 12 071062 3 0.404 0.551 0.156 -0.048 13 071071 3 0.663 0.686 0.184 -0.037 14 071072 3 0.572 0.516 0.284 0.009 15 071081 3 0.546 0.661 0.069 0.040 16 071082 3 0.468 0.578 0.061 0.099 17 071091 3 0.631 0.686 0.065 0.077 18 071092 3 0.531 0.726 -0.002 0.009 19 071101 3 0.559 0.594 0.125 0.081 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 071102 3 0.706 0.769 0.005 0.082 21 071111 3 0.760 0.580 0.258 0.069 22 071112 3 0.797 0.736 0.256 -0.091 23 071121 3 0.682 0.668 0.299 -0.135 24 071122 3 0.753 0.678 0.289 -0.085 25 071131 3 0.596 0.579 0.188 0.053 26 071132 3 0.625 0.686 0.090 0.044 27 071141 3 0.656 0.759 0.062 -0.002 28 071142 3 0.458 0.567 0.053 0.121 29 071151 3 0.465 0.388 0.288 0.095 30 071152 3 0.405 0.378 0.333 0.007 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.594 0.596 0.175 0.038 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.130 0.126 0.103 0.073 MEDIAN 3 0.609 0.592 0.197 0.048 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.214 0.169 0.188 0.084 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.403 0.351 -0.002 -0.135 LOWER HINGE 3 0.468 0.516 0.069 -0.002 UPPER HINGE 3 0.682 0.686 0.256 0.082 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.797 0.829 0.333 0.195 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 071011 1537 1993 457 1.000 0.239 0.381 4.695 0.262 -0.028 2 071012 1537 1993 457 1.000 0.242 0.439 5.182 0.264 -0.007 3 071021 1683 1995 313 1.000 0.183 0.364 3.771 0.198 -0.001 4 071022 1658 1995 338 1.000 0.196 0.217 3.579 0.220 -0.004 5 071031 1618 1995 378 1.000 0.201 0.492 3.940 0.220 -0.003 6 071032 1619 1995 377 1.000 0.208 0.615 4.401 0.220 0.000 7 071041 1634 1995 362 1.000 0.230 0.827 9.319 0.225 -0.006 8 071042 1640 1990 351 1.000 0.186 0.083 4.522 0.204 -0.027 9 071051 1751 1995 245 1.000 0.142 -0.263 3.419 0.161 -0.002 10 071052 1751 1995 245 1.000 0.143 -0.234 3.574 0.158 0.000 11 071061 1751 1995 245 1.000 0.202 -0.017 3.950 0.227 -0.004 12 071062 1746 1995 250 1.000 0.207 0.263 3.514 0.234 -0.008 13 071071 1689 1995 307 1.002 0.294 1.239 10.704 0.302 -0.006 14 071072 1679 1995 317 1.000 0.231 0.208 5.358 0.233 -0.004 15 071081 1712 1995 284 1.000 0.252 0.497 3.949 0.264 -0.011 16 071082 1697 1995 299 1.000 0.284 2.309 18.159 0.259 -0.028 17 071091 1668 1995 328 1.000 0.265 0.718 5.098 0.285 -0.004 18 071092 1665 1995 331 1.001 0.279 1.072 13.337 0.298 -0.124 19 071101 1745 1995 251 1.000 0.177 -0.045 4.284 0.196 0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 071102 1745 1995 251 1.000 0.170 0.144 3.231 0.199 -0.012 21 071111 1687 1995 309 1.000 0.231 0.611 3.978 0.258 -0.006 22 071112 1688 1995 308 1.000 0.254 0.476 5.003 0.269 -0.005 23 071121 1707 1995 289 1.000 0.252 0.556 5.872 0.264 -0.016 24 071122 1705 1995 291 1.000 0.250 1.073 6.278 0.258 -0.005 25 071131 1713 1995 283 1.000 0.278 1.449 9.127 0.275 0.003 26 071132 1716 1995 280 1.000 0.302 1.138 7.830 0.296 0.008 27 071141 1749 1995 247 1.000 0.197 0.610 5.028 0.205 0.004 28 071142 1749 1995 247 1.000 0.209 0.303 5.210 0.221 -0.006 29 071151 1623 1995 373 1.000 0.187 0.065 3.584 0.209 -0.011 30 071152 1624 1995 372 1.000 0.195 -0.089 3.925 0.224 -0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 313 1.000 0.223 0.517 5.794 0.237 -0.010 STANDARD DEVIATION 58 0.000 0.043 0.551 3.346 0.038 0.023 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 307 1.000 0.219 0.457 4.609 0.230 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 100 0.000 0.057 0.574 1.947 0.055 0.010 MINIMUM VALUE 245 1.000 0.142 -0.263 3.231 0.158 -0.124 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 251 1.000 0.195 0.144 3.925 0.209 -0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 351 1.000 0.252 0.718 5.872 0.264 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 457 1.002 0.302 2.309 18.159 0.302 0.008 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.339 0.096 0.005 0.429 4.236 0.068 0.707 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.068 SERIES 071082 AND 071111 299 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.707 SERIES 071151 AND 071152 372 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.90 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1562. 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. CORR 1. 1. 1. 1. 28. 45. 120. 210. 231. 435. RBAR 0.393 0.486 0.393 0.774 0.237 0.287 0.209 0.172 0.293 0.462 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.202 0.178 0.220 0.194 0.157 0.140 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.038 0.027 0.020 0.013 0.010 0.007 EPS 0.564 0.654 0.702 0.959 0.758 0.856 0.839 0.836 0.922 0.963 NSS 2.0 2.0 3.6 6.8 10.1 14.7 19.8 24.6 28.7 30.0 YEAR 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. RBAR 0.491 0.451 0.382 0.354 0.359 0.365 0.410 SDEV 0.160 0.182 0.180 0.143 0.136 0.145 0.150 SERR 0.008 0.009 0.009 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.967 0.961 0.949 0.943 0.944 0.945 0.954 NSS 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1537 1995 459 0.984 0.131 -0.088 3.845 0.155 -0.188 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.177 0.104 0.049 191 268 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.38 0.95 1.00 1.13 2.08 138.05 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.10 0.47 0.90 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.188 -0.014 0.020 0.040 -0.132 0.117 -0.052 0.005 0.012 -0.032 PACF -0.188 -0.051 0.008 0.046 -0.119 0.075 -0.027 -0.001 0.015 -0.049 95% C.L. 0.093 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.039 -0.190 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.003 0.001 0.026 -0.110 0.089 -0.036 0.003 0.001 -0.034 PACF 0.001 0.003 0.001 0.026 -0.110 0.090 -0.038 0.003 0.007 -0.052 95% C.L. 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1537 1995 459 0.985 0.155 0.072 3.181 0.119 0.498 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.497 0.449 0.335 0.265 0.136 0.185 0.084 0.075 0.050 0.018 PACF 0.497 0.268 0.056 0.013 -0.097 0.107 -0.049 -0.009 0.002 -0.039 95% C.L. 0.093 0.114 0.129 0.136 0.140 0.142 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.145 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.309 0.366 0.272 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.46 MINUTES