RUN: SWIT003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT175E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT175E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 073 1 Grindelwald Sźd (S3) WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 073 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1960 4639-801 1774 1995 - 073 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 17 073271 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1970 1970 / 1973 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 073381 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1816 1817 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 073011 1860 1995 136 0.732 0.303 0.152 2.181 0.180 0.848 2 073012 1842 1995 154 0.589 0.220 -0.012 3.133 0.198 0.811 3 073061 1774 1995 222 0.500 0.163 0.465 2.790 0.198 0.726 4 073062 1785 1995 211 0.394 0.143 0.407 3.130 0.235 0.640 5 073131 1775 1995 221 0.491 0.213 1.619 6.444 0.214 0.766 6 073132 1782 1995 214 0.452 0.293 1.593 4.964 0.256 0.861 7 073151 1786 1963 178 0.344 0.358 1.904 5.626 0.385 0.896 8 073152 1785 1987 203 0.470 0.334 1.312 4.495 0.299 0.843 9 073161 1834 1995 162 0.785 0.416 0.943 3.908 0.226 0.856 10 073162 1803 1995 193 0.614 0.230 0.801 3.633 0.234 0.712 11 073171 1870 1995 126 0.861 0.428 0.289 3.518 0.234 0.817 12 073172 1887 1995 109 0.736 0.269 0.757 4.137 0.209 0.784 13 073231 1900 1995 96 0.557 0.317 1.746 6.210 0.239 0.847 14 073232 1864 1995 132 0.332 0.172 1.006 3.362 0.234 0.835 15 073261 1801 1995 195 0.308 0.140 0.522 2.962 0.243 0.782 16 073262 1860 1995 136 0.626 0.361 1.855 6.007 0.183 0.924 17 073271 1805 1992 188 0.422 0.392 2.329 11.197 0.330 0.878 18 073272 1786 1995 210 0.304 0.235 1.420 4.693 0.346 0.888 19 073291 1803 1995 193 0.422 0.151 0.571 3.704 0.211 0.716 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 073292 1832 1995 164 0.565 0.291 0.551 2.453 0.182 0.887 21 073311 1869 1995 127 0.960 0.248 0.853 3.810 0.160 0.667 22 073312 1868 1995 128 0.641 0.167 0.199 2.707 0.158 0.695 23 073321 1815 1995 181 0.860 0.346 0.300 3.575 0.206 0.800 24 073322 1843 1995 153 0.640 0.215 1.166 5.193 0.237 0.584 25 073381 1776 1995 220 0.357 0.248 1.109 5.366 0.241 0.868 26 073382 1775 1995 221 0.356 0.222 1.690 7.646 0.241 0.846 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1774 TO 1995 222 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 172 0.551 0.264 0.983 4.494 0.234 0.799 STANDARD DEVIATION 38 0.187 0.086 0.637 1.936 0.055 0.087 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 179 0.528 0.248 0.898 3.859 0.234 0.826 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.247 0.121 1.128 2.233 0.044 0.136 MINIMUM VALUE 96 0.304 0.140 -0.012 2.181 0.158 0.584 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 136 0.394 0.213 0.465 3.133 0.198 0.726 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 210 0.641 0.334 1.593 5.366 0.241 0.861 MAXIMUM VALUE 222 0.960 0.428 2.329 11.197 0.385 0.924 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.358 0.331 0.018 -0.630 2.601 -0.575 0.914 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.575 SERIES 073011 AND 073271 133 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.914 SERIES 073161 AND 073292 162 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 66.39 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 78. 91. 153. 276. 325. 300. RBAR 0.387 0.200 0.467 0.516 0.423 0.359 SDEV 0.263 0.350 0.281 0.215 0.297 0.261 SERR 0.030 0.037 0.023 0.013 0.016 0.015 EPS 0.906 0.827 0.953 0.964 0.950 0.935 NSS 15.2 19.2 23.2 25.5 26.0 25.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1774 1995 222 0.525 0.173 1.301 5.225 0.166 0.807 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.491 0.265 0.149 72 150 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.34 1.00 1.06 1.40 4.33 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 180. 74. 96. 136. 210. 222. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.803 0.764 0.689 0.620 0.496 0.441 0.394 0.321 0.260 0.219 PACF 0.803 0.336 0.038 -0.032 -0.217 0.007 0.102 -0.036 -0.047 -0.023 95% C.L. 0.134 0.203 0.250 0.282 0.305 0.320 0.330 0.339 0.344 0.348 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.709 0.487 0.397 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 073011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00580080 0.33418953 2 073012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00318008 0.34269926 3 073061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00095939 0.60652155 4 073062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00082997 0.48228976 5 073131 1 0.81579185 0.03946803 0.00000000 0.39932057 6 073132 1 0.98718536 0.03229761 0.00000000 0.31152588 7 073151 1 1.25347185 0.02667305 0.00000000 0.08625674 8 073152 1 0.99893695 0.01213319 0.00000000 0.10124305 9 073161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00613352 1.28463459 10 073162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00195721 0.80409813 11 073171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00399409 0.60693079 12 073172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00202335 0.84761471 13 073231 1 1.29525304 0.08313734 0.00000000 0.40129441 14 073232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00334803 0.55506825 15 073261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00138785 0.17234947 16 073262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00382155 0.88802612 17 073271 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 073272 1 0.82972699 0.02644064 0.00000000 0.15754046 19 073291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00089632 0.50922281 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 073292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00477513 0.95882612 21 073311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00213114 1.09647167 22 073312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00075682 0.59204477 23 073321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00328391 0.56127441 24 073322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00111693 0.72587287 25 073381 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00117710 0.22416164 26 073382 1 1.35612655 0.14952494 0.00000000 0.31828806 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 073011 1860 1995 136 0.996 0.295 0.637 3.640 0.178 0.712 2 073012 1842 1995 154 0.993 0.297 -0.151 3.213 0.196 0.667 3 073061 1774 1995 222 0.999 0.291 0.144 2.824 0.197 0.655 4 073062 1785 1995 211 0.999 0.328 0.140 2.913 0.234 0.593 5 073131 1775 1995 221 0.999 0.271 0.402 2.771 0.212 0.531 6 073132 1782 1995 214 1.001 0.447 1.454 7.107 0.255 0.752 7 073151 1786 1963 178 1.013 0.455 0.736 3.891 0.383 0.438 8 073152 1785 1987 203 0.990 0.526 1.775 7.824 0.297 0.745 9 073161 1834 1995 162 0.987 0.367 1.914 8.128 0.225 0.716 10 073162 1803 1995 193 0.999 0.329 0.986 4.820 0.233 0.620 11 073171 1870 1995 126 0.993 0.523 0.920 4.147 0.233 0.816 12 073172 1887 1995 109 1.000 0.339 0.348 3.397 0.207 0.750 13 073231 1900 1995 96 1.000 0.330 0.055 3.415 0.236 0.668 14 073232 1864 1995 132 1.006 0.307 0.722 3.878 0.233 0.512 15 073261 1801 1995 195 1.000 0.422 1.761 10.626 0.242 0.608 16 073262 1860 1995 136 0.990 0.463 1.728 5.873 0.182 0.878 17 073271 1805 1992 188 1.021 0.445 1.279 5.952 0.329 0.389 18 073272 1786 1995 210 0.997 0.525 0.889 3.997 0.344 0.764 19 073291 1803 1995 193 0.998 0.327 0.516 4.271 0.210 0.676 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 073292 1832 1995 164 0.988 0.301 1.775 6.757 0.181 0.706 21 073311 1869 1995 127 0.999 0.238 0.618 3.332 0.159 0.624 22 073312 1868 1995 128 1.000 0.258 0.271 2.832 0.157 0.686 23 073321 1815 1995 181 0.991 0.363 0.551 4.471 0.205 0.764 24 073322 1843 1995 153 1.000 0.317 0.882 4.547 0.235 0.550 25 073381 1776 1995 220 1.014 0.865 2.981 16.670 0.242 0.859 26 073382 1775 1995 221 1.000 0.484 0.376 3.875 0.241 0.797 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 172 0.999 0.389 0.912 5.199 0.233 0.672 STANDARD DEVIATION 38 0.008 0.131 0.733 3.046 0.054 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 179 0.999 0.334 0.729 4.072 0.233 0.681 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.007 0.154 1.078 2.555 0.045 0.145 MINIMUM VALUE 96 0.987 0.238 -0.151 2.771 0.157 0.389 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 136 0.993 0.301 0.376 3.397 0.197 0.608 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 210 1.000 0.455 1.454 5.952 0.242 0.752 MAXIMUM VALUE 222 1.021 0.865 2.981 16.670 0.383 0.878 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 073011 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 073012 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 073061 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 073062 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 073131 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 073132 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 073151 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 073152 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 073161 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 073162 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 073171 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 073172 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 073231 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 073232 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 073261 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 073262 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 073271 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 073272 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 073291 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 073292 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 073311 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 073312 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 073321 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 073322 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 073381 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 073382 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 073011 1860 1995 136 0.997 0.279 0.410 3.111 0.178 0.676 2 073012 1842 1995 154 0.997 0.275 0.122 3.402 0.196 0.597 3 073061 1774 1995 222 0.996 0.263 0.042 3.041 0.197 0.589 4 073062 1785 1995 211 0.996 0.299 0.053 3.357 0.234 0.526 5 073131 1775 1995 221 0.998 0.245 0.200 2.763 0.212 0.440 6 073132 1782 1995 214 0.991 0.415 1.308 6.410 0.255 0.722 7 073151 1786 1963 178 0.995 0.431 0.630 3.371 0.383 0.423 8 073152 1785 1987 203 0.981 0.400 1.331 5.888 0.297 0.578 9 073161 1834 1995 162 0.995 0.309 1.114 5.137 0.225 0.599 10 073162 1803 1995 193 0.998 0.318 0.825 4.119 0.233 0.591 11 073171 1870 1995 126 1.011 0.482 3.678 24.040 0.231 0.504 12 073172 1887 1995 109 0.991 0.310 0.459 3.485 0.206 0.716 13 073231 1900 1995 96 0.991 0.283 -0.102 3.866 0.235 0.557 14 073232 1864 1995 132 0.996 0.274 0.501 3.512 0.233 0.408 15 073261 1801 1995 195 0.994 0.393 1.440 8.420 0.242 0.591 16 073262 1860 1995 136 0.990 0.317 0.597 3.800 0.183 0.755 17 073271 1805 1992 188 0.997 0.398 0.727 4.445 0.329 0.373 18 073272 1786 1995 210 0.996 0.434 0.696 4.033 0.345 0.592 19 073291 1803 1995 193 0.998 0.294 0.603 3.981 0.210 0.591 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 073292 1832 1995 164 0.997 0.256 0.962 4.179 0.181 0.582 21 073311 1869 1995 127 0.997 0.208 0.574 3.299 0.158 0.502 22 073312 1868 1995 128 0.996 0.202 0.502 2.866 0.156 0.494 23 073321 1815 1995 181 0.990 0.274 0.272 4.072 0.205 0.611 24 073322 1843 1995 153 0.998 0.307 0.823 4.499 0.235 0.515 25 073381 1776 1995 220 0.933 0.431 0.765 4.527 0.242 0.747 26 073382 1775 1995 221 0.974 0.392 0.432 3.360 0.241 0.718 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 172 0.992 0.327 0.729 4.884 0.232 0.577 STANDARD DEVIATION 38 0.014 0.076 0.722 4.096 0.054 0.104 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 179 0.996 0.308 0.600 3.923 0.232 0.590 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.006 0.124 0.414 1.139 0.045 0.107 MINIMUM VALUE 96 0.933 0.202 -0.102 2.763 0.156 0.373 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 136 0.991 0.274 0.410 3.360 0.197 0.504 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 210 0.997 0.398 0.825 4.499 0.242 0.611 MAXIMUM VALUE 222 1.011 0.482 3.678 24.040 0.383 0.755 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.406 0.170 0.009 0.100 2.393 -0.003 0.817 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.003 SERIES 073131 AND 073272 210 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.817 SERIES 073161 AND 073162 162 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 66.39 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 78. 91. 153. 276. 325. 300. RBAR 0.401 0.250 0.508 0.528 0.427 0.423 SDEV 0.248 0.231 0.215 0.212 0.210 0.191 SERR 0.028 0.024 0.017 0.013 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.910 0.865 0.960 0.966 0.951 0.950 NSS 15.2 19.2 23.2 25.5 26.0 25.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1774 1995 222 0.985 0.212 0.210 3.915 0.166 0.569 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.295 0.128 0.130 92 130 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.51 1.01 1.09 1.60 9.35 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.09 0.00 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.567 0.537 0.428 0.387 0.168 0.130 0.044 -0.064 -0.153 -0.202 PACF 0.567 0.319 0.065 0.060 -0.244 -0.058 -0.027 -0.123 -0.078 -0.083 95% C.L. 0.134 0.172 0.200 0.216 0.228 0.230 0.232 0.232 0.232 0.234 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.393 0.386 0.319 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.501 0.507 0.437 0.400 0.159 0.162 0.063 -0.050 -0.122 -0.143 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.501 2 0.330 0.341 3 0.279 0.292 0.149 4 0.267 0.267 0.126 0.085 5 0.289 0.301 0.197 0.156 -0.266 6 0.273 0.310 0.208 0.174 -0.249 -0.060 7 0.270 0.296 0.218 0.186 -0.232 -0.044 -0.056 8 0.263 0.291 0.190 0.208 -0.205 -0.008 -0.023 -0.122 9 0.256 0.289 0.189 0.197 -0.193 0.002 -0.007 -0.108 -0.056 10 0.254 0.285 0.189 0.197 -0.202 0.011 0.001 -0.095 -0.045 -0.044 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1861.85 1799.59 1774.08 1771.07 1771.46 1757.14 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1758.34 1759.64 1758.29 1759.59 1761.17 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.279 0.292 0.149 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 35.33 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 154.64 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.279 0.370 0.334 0.243 0.221 0.183 0.152 0.129 0.107 0.0902 0.076 0.064 0.053 0.045 0.038 0.032 0.026 0.022 0.019 0.0156 0.013 0.011 0.009 0.008 0.007 0.005 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.0027 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 073011 3 0.484 0.652 0.019 0.042 2 073012 3 0.375 0.558 0.034 0.066 3 073061 3 0.371 0.503 0.112 0.049 4 073062 3 0.323 0.403 0.217 0.023 5 073131 3 0.257 0.299 0.230 0.098 6 073132 3 0.561 0.513 0.254 0.040 7 073151 3 0.303 0.278 0.256 0.093 8 073152 3 0.405 0.385 0.302 0.036 9 073161 3 0.403 0.439 0.230 0.046 10 073162 3 0.412 0.415 0.136 0.198 11 073171 3 0.428 0.753 -0.276 0.157 12 073172 3 0.544 0.648 0.176 -0.087 13 073231 3 0.354 0.463 0.107 0.093 14 073232 3 0.191 0.346 0.102 0.086 15 073261 3 0.380 0.464 0.182 0.044 16 073262 3 0.592 0.602 0.139 0.075 17 073271 3 0.213 0.257 0.274 0.041 18 073272 3 0.411 0.411 0.268 0.047 19 073291 3 0.390 0.495 0.248 -0.103 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 073292 3 0.415 0.405 0.333 -0.026 21 073311 3 0.308 0.363 0.179 0.118 22 073312 3 0.285 0.398 0.114 0.122 23 073321 3 0.407 0.478 0.105 0.144 24 073322 3 0.324 0.374 0.279 -0.003 25 073381 3 0.578 0.630 0.018 0.170 26 073382 3 0.524 0.636 0.121 -0.007 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.394 0.468 0.160 0.060 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.107 0.127 0.125 0.071 MEDIAN 3 0.397 0.451 0.178 0.048 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.104 0.173 0.147 0.062 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.191 0.257 -0.276 -0.103 LOWER HINGE 3 0.323 0.385 0.107 0.036 UPPER HINGE 3 0.428 0.558 0.254 0.098 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.592 0.753 0.333 0.198 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 073011 1860 1995 136 1.000 0.201 0.106 3.242 0.224 -0.005 2 073012 1842 1995 154 1.000 0.217 -0.235 4.424 0.252 -0.011 3 073061 1774 1995 222 1.000 0.210 0.170 4.130 0.235 -0.006 4 073062 1785 1995 211 1.000 0.247 0.325 3.617 0.276 -0.004 5 073131 1775 1995 221 1.000 0.211 0.123 3.370 0.246 0.000 6 073132 1782 1995 214 1.000 0.275 0.382 5.063 0.318 -0.002 7 073151 1786 1963 178 1.000 0.373 0.726 3.936 0.413 -0.027 8 073152 1785 1987 203 1.000 0.309 0.852 6.283 0.326 -0.004 9 073161 1834 1995 162 1.000 0.239 0.123 3.926 0.279 0.001 10 073162 1803 1995 193 1.000 0.243 0.028 4.076 0.282 -0.010 11 073171 1870 1995 126 1.003 0.331 2.163 15.755 0.343 -0.160 12 073172 1887 1995 109 1.000 0.210 0.236 3.288 0.243 -0.020 13 073231 1900 1995 96 1.000 0.230 0.148 4.071 0.261 0.014 14 073232 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.246 0.241 4.063 0.275 -0.001 15 073261 1801 1995 195 1.001 0.302 1.508 12.519 0.294 0.004 16 073262 1860 1995 136 1.000 0.204 -0.158 3.238 0.228 0.007 17 073271 1805 1992 188 1.000 0.353 0.750 4.730 0.360 0.004 18 073272 1786 1995 210 1.001 0.332 0.347 4.351 0.385 0.006 19 073291 1803 1995 193 1.000 0.231 0.381 3.924 0.255 0.008 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 073292 1832 1995 164 1.000 0.196 -0.041 3.113 0.218 0.004 21 073311 1869 1995 127 1.000 0.173 0.501 4.306 0.189 -0.018 22 073312 1868 1995 128 1.000 0.170 0.204 3.641 0.185 0.001 23 073321 1815 1995 181 1.000 0.211 0.204 3.544 0.241 0.000 24 073322 1843 1995 153 1.000 0.253 0.488 4.479 0.282 0.000 25 073381 1776 1995 220 1.001 0.277 0.062 7.007 0.294 -0.009 26 073382 1775 1995 221 1.001 0.266 -0.337 4.891 0.309 0.007 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 172 1.000 0.250 0.358 4.961 0.277 -0.009 STANDARD DEVIATION 38 0.001 0.055 0.527 2.881 0.056 0.032 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 179 1.000 0.241 0.220 4.073 0.275 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.000 0.067 0.382 1.114 0.067 0.013 MINIMUM VALUE 96 1.000 0.170 -0.337 3.113 0.185 -0.160 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 136 1.000 0.210 0.106 3.617 0.241 -0.009 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 210 1.000 0.277 0.488 4.730 0.309 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 222 1.003 0.373 2.163 15.755 0.413 0.014 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.447 0.128 0.007 -0.247 2.796 0.103 0.803 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.103 SERIES 073272 AND 073311 127 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.803 SERIES 073161 AND 073162 162 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 66.39 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 78. 91. 153. 276. 325. 300. RBAR 0.435 0.389 0.467 0.502 0.543 0.542 SDEV 0.164 0.140 0.165 0.150 0.130 0.147 SERR 0.019 0.015 0.013 0.009 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.921 0.924 0.953 0.962 0.969 0.968 NSS 15.2 19.2 23.2 25.5 26.0 25.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1774 1995 222 0.995 0.162 -0.033 4.131 0.199 -0.117 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.175 0.074 0.106 110 112 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.58 1.01 1.13 1.71 8.10 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.08 0.00 0.89 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.116 0.040 0.052 0.208 -0.146 -0.001 0.047 -0.038 -0.087 -0.062 PACF -0.116 0.026 0.061 0.224 -0.105 -0.053 0.023 -0.058 -0.047 -0.091 95% C.L. 0.134 0.136 0.136 0.137 0.142 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.146 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.014 -0.116 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.014 0.001 0.032 0.207 -0.132 -0.017 0.045 -0.030 -0.098 -0.074 PACF -0.014 0.001 0.032 0.208 -0.131 -0.022 0.035 -0.068 -0.046 -0.090 95% C.L. 0.134 0.134 0.134 0.134 0.140 0.142 0.142 0.143 0.143 0.144 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.046 -0.014 0.001 0.032 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1774 1995 222 0.996 0.199 0.319 4.062 0.164 0.498 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.496 0.501 0.423 0.406 0.174 0.155 0.102 -0.001 -0.079 -0.115 PACF 0.496 0.338 0.135 0.110 -0.235 -0.084 -0.002 -0.090 -0.058 -0.069 95% C.L. 0.134 0.164 0.190 0.206 0.220 0.222 0.224 0.225 0.225 0.226 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.395 0.294 0.286 0.166 0.177 -0.240 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 1.00 MINUTES