RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me2 DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT178L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT178L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 326 1 Krauchthal BE WIDTH_LATE PISY - 326 2 Switzerland Scots pine, Scotch pine 550 4700-734 1714 1976 - 326 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 13 326071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 4 GAPS / 1870 1870 / 1892 1893 / 1911 1911 / 1958 1958 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 326101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1865 1866 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 326011 1764 1976 213 0.179 0.190 2.118 7.685 0.557 0.761 2 326012 1768 1976 209 0.207 0.152 2.017 9.375 0.503 0.489 3 326021 1785 1960 176 0.174 0.150 1.582 5.483 0.537 0.730 4 326022 1778 1976 199 0.164 0.158 1.851 6.185 0.514 0.680 5 326031 1863 1975 113 0.103 0.081 1.429 4.683 0.730 0.202 6 326032 1870 1973 104 0.122 0.126 2.212 8.420 0.955 0.263 7 326041 1892 1976 85 0.101 0.059 1.412 5.763 0.559 0.276 8 326042 1888 1976 89 0.120 0.085 1.366 5.644 0.652 0.376 9 326051 1791 1975 185 0.211 0.152 0.901 3.484 0.555 0.526 10 326052 1790 1976 187 0.180 0.140 2.426 10.714 0.467 0.551 11 326061 1770 1976 207 0.252 0.157 1.922 9.888 0.483 0.377 12 326062 1811 1976 166 0.235 0.159 1.444 5.368 0.579 0.449 13 326071 1714 1975 262 0.110 0.135 4.653 27.962 0.440 0.855 14 326072 1735 1976 242 0.246 0.244 3.141 16.215 0.460 0.782 15 326081 1835 1973 139 0.122 0.096 2.279 9.244 0.387 0.849 16 326082 1797 1961 165 0.124 0.076 1.571 6.121 0.382 0.717 17 326101 1789 1976 188 0.226 0.159 1.603 6.228 0.462 0.590 18 326102 1750 1976 227 0.165 0.125 2.532 13.072 0.545 0.623 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 18 FROM 1714 TO 1976 263 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 175 0.169 0.136 2.026 8.974 0.543 0.561 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.051 0.045 0.842 5.711 0.134 0.205 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 0.170 0.145 1.887 6.956 0.525 0.571 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 70 0.089 0.062 0.835 4.244 0.097 0.353 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.101 0.059 0.901 3.484 0.382 0.202 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 139 0.122 0.096 1.444 5.644 0.462 0.377 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 0.211 0.158 2.279 9.888 0.559 0.730 MAXIMUM VALUE 257 0.252 0.244 4.653 27.962 0.955 0.855 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 153 0.507 0.199 0.016 -0.516 2.942 -0.050 0.881 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.050 SERIES 326031 AND 326051 113 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.881 SERIES 326011 AND 326022 199 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 15. 55. 78. 91. 120. 153. 120. RBAR 0.795 0.373 0.512 0.409 0.424 0.446 0.496 0.554 SDEV 0.000 0.208 0.170 0.247 0.189 0.161 0.185 0.156 SERR 0.000 0.054 0.023 0.028 0.020 0.015 0.015 0.014 EPS 0.954 0.856 0.931 0.905 0.918 0.933 0.947 0.956 NSS 5.4 10.0 12.8 13.8 15.3 17.2 18.0 17.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1714 1976 263 0.204 0.148 2.218 9.674 0.416 0.763 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.786 0.422 0.010 83 180 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 0.92 1.02 1.12 2.04 9999.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.13 0.00 0.83 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 186. 70. 85. 139. 209. 262. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.760 0.719 0.623 0.577 0.501 0.472 0.455 0.426 0.406 0.379 PACF 0.760 0.333 0.015 0.050 -0.031 0.048 0.096 0.014 0.016 -0.001 95% C.L. 0.123 0.181 0.220 0.246 0.265 0.279 0.291 0.302 0.311 0.319 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.629 0.508 0.334 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 326011 1 0.65144169 0.02096657 0.00000000 0.03656740 2 326012 1 0.43525368 0.01129524 0.00000000 0.04110326 3 326021 1 0.48602292 0.01895115 0.00000000 0.03495257 4 326022 1 0.47827068 0.01442581 0.00000000 0.00784611 5 326031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00042751 0.07837547 6 326032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00063240 0.08901045 7 326041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00111276 0.14914286 8 326042 1 0.09398428 0.01281889 0.00000000 0.06441727 9 326051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00171038 0.36987603 10 326052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00147173 0.31802139 11 326061 1 0.41909024 0.04159954 0.00000000 0.20398903 12 326062 1 0.45067120 0.04970886 0.00000000 0.18156576 13 326071 -67 175 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 326072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00204021 0.49420837 15 326081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00163470 0.23615576 16 326082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00089060 0.19834442 17 326101 1 0.63454002 0.07272141 0.00000000 0.17897335 18 326102 1 0.80119926 0.15562011 0.00000000 0.14397275 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 326011 1764 1976 213 1.013 0.556 1.515 7.547 0.553 0.013 2 326012 1768 1976 209 0.997 0.503 1.442 7.721 0.500 0.127 3 326021 1785 1960 176 0.990 0.543 1.131 5.927 0.533 0.249 4 326022 1778 1976 199 1.027 0.647 2.166 10.411 0.512 0.278 5 326031 1863 1975 113 0.995 0.733 1.261 4.272 0.724 0.158 6 326032 1870 1973 104 0.997 0.979 2.141 8.297 0.946 0.247 7 326041 1892 1976 85 1.004 0.502 0.798 3.859 0.554 0.174 8 326042 1888 1976 89 1.000 0.683 1.207 5.495 0.645 0.366 9 326051 1791 1975 185 0.965 0.556 0.794 3.144 0.553 0.346 10 326052 1790 1976 187 1.015 0.558 1.311 4.379 0.464 0.244 11 326061 1770 1976 207 1.000 0.573 2.924 21.203 0.480 0.112 12 326062 1811 1976 166 1.001 0.584 1.927 11.227 0.575 0.111 13 326071 1714 1975 262 0.983 0.678 3.204 15.957 0.439 0.592 14 326072 1735 1976 242 1.542 3.190 7.908 71.544 0.458 0.780 15 326081 1835 1973 139 1.079 0.661 3.022 18.534 0.387 0.411 16 326082 1797 1961 165 0.991 0.459 1.276 5.495 0.380 0.473 17 326101 1789 1976 188 0.999 0.591 1.296 4.931 0.469 0.428 18 326102 1750 1976 227 0.999 0.585 1.037 4.496 0.541 0.434 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 175 1.033 0.754 2.020 11.913 0.540 0.308 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.129 0.619 1.647 15.781 0.131 0.192 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 186 1.000 0.584 1.377 6.737 0.523 0.264 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 70 0.017 0.123 0.959 6.731 0.089 0.269 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.965 0.459 0.794 3.144 0.380 0.013 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 139 0.995 0.556 1.207 4.496 0.464 0.158 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 1.013 0.678 2.166 11.227 0.554 0.428 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.542 3.190 7.908 71.544 0.946 0.780 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 326011 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 326012 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 326021 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 326022 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 326031 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 326032 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 326041 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 326042 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 326051 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 326052 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 326061 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 326062 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 326071 -67 175 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 326072 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 326081 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 326082 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 326101 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 326102 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 326011 1764 1976 213 0.998 0.516 1.218 6.465 0.553 -0.058 2 326012 1768 1976 209 0.994 0.484 1.240 6.452 0.501 0.078 3 326021 1785 1960 176 0.995 0.542 1.174 5.647 0.534 0.189 4 326022 1778 1976 199 0.996 0.579 1.867 8.749 0.512 0.244 5 326031 1863 1975 113 0.993 0.641 0.946 4.138 0.726 -0.009 6 326032 1870 1973 104 0.980 0.841 1.301 4.341 0.945 0.065 7 326041 1892 1976 85 0.998 0.483 0.623 3.517 0.553 0.147 8 326042 1888 1976 89 0.985 0.650 1.290 6.424 0.643 0.315 9 326051 1791 1975 185 0.991 0.529 0.679 2.968 0.554 0.143 10 326052 1790 1976 187 0.997 0.527 1.151 3.797 0.465 0.223 11 326061 1770 1976 207 0.995 0.565 3.436 27.439 0.480 0.055 12 326062 1811 1976 166 0.994 0.561 1.879 10.712 0.576 0.047 13 326071 1714 1975 262 0.991 0.633 3.019 15.255 0.439 0.555 14 326072 1735 1976 242 1.058 0.663 1.861 8.995 0.458 0.576 15 326081 1835 1973 139 0.996 0.469 0.996 5.241 0.387 0.333 16 326082 1797 1961 165 0.994 0.421 0.787 4.070 0.380 0.342 17 326101 1789 1976 188 0.985 0.516 0.847 3.524 0.470 0.344 18 326102 1750 1976 227 0.995 0.562 0.942 4.072 0.541 0.404 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 175 0.996 0.566 1.403 7.323 0.540 0.222 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.016 0.095 0.767 5.910 0.131 0.183 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 186 0.995 0.552 1.196 5.444 0.523 0.206 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 70 0.005 0.117 0.919 4.679 0.089 0.276 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.980 0.421 0.623 2.968 0.380 -0.058 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 139 0.991 0.516 0.942 4.070 0.465 0.065 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 0.996 0.633 1.861 8.749 0.554 0.342 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.058 0.841 3.436 27.439 0.945 0.576 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 153 0.453 0.134 0.011 0.297 2.750 0.177 0.804 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.177 SERIES 326022 AND 326082 165 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.804 SERIES 326061 AND 326062 166 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 15. 55. 78. 91. 120. 153. 120. RBAR 0.772 0.394 0.452 0.364 0.391 0.482 0.530 0.504 SDEV 0.000 0.141 0.162 0.200 0.178 0.147 0.173 0.170 SERR 0.000 0.036 0.022 0.023 0.019 0.013 0.014 0.016 EPS 0.948 0.867 0.914 0.888 0.908 0.941 0.953 0.947 NSS 5.4 10.0 12.8 13.8 15.3 17.2 18.0 17.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1714 1976 263 0.954 0.389 0.981 5.275 0.414 0.228 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.642 0.350 -0.017 75 188 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 1.01 1.00 1.08 2.09 16.92 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.84 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.227 0.159 0.059 0.068 0.002 -0.081 0.003 -0.065 -0.039 -0.019 PACF 0.227 0.113 0.002 0.040 -0.028 -0.095 0.042 -0.057 -0.017 0.018 95% C.L. 0.123 0.130 0.132 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.134 0.135 0.135 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.064 0.203 0.112 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.073 0.036 -0.021 0.004 -0.010 -0.117 -0.039 -0.081 -0.030 0.063 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.073 2 0.071 0.030 3 0.072 0.032 -0.026 4 0.072 0.032 -0.026 0.007 5 0.072 0.032 -0.026 0.007 -0.009 6 0.071 0.033 -0.029 0.011 0.000 -0.117 7 0.068 0.033 -0.029 0.010 0.000 -0.116 -0.022 8 0.067 0.024 -0.029 0.011 -0.002 -0.113 -0.017 -0.071 9 0.065 0.024 -0.032 0.011 -0.001 -0.114 -0.016 -0.069 -0.025 10 0.067 0.029 -0.031 0.019 -0.001 -0.115 -0.014 -0.071 -0.029 0.074 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2335.79 2336.39 2338.14 2339.97 2341.95 2343.93 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2342.29 2344.16 2344.83 2346.68 2347.24 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 326011 0 0.003 2 326012 0 0.006 3 326021 0 0.036 4 326022 0 0.061 5 326031 0 0.000 6 326032 0 0.004 7 326041 0 0.022 8 326042 0 0.100 9 326051 0 0.021 10 326052 0 0.051 11 326061 0 0.003 12 326062 0 0.002 13 326071 0 0.310 14 326072 0 0.342 15 326081 0 0.130 16 326082 0 0.118 17 326101 0 0.120 18 326102 0 0.164 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.083 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.103 MEDIAN 0 0.043 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.116 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.004 UPPER HINGE 0 0.120 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.342 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 326011 1764 1976 213 1.000 0.516 1.218 6.465 0.552 -0.058 2 326012 1768 1976 209 1.000 0.484 1.240 6.452 0.497 0.078 3 326021 1785 1960 176 1.000 0.542 1.174 5.647 0.531 0.189 4 326022 1778 1976 199 1.000 0.579 1.867 8.749 0.509 0.244 5 326031 1863 1975 113 1.000 0.641 0.946 4.138 0.718 -0.009 6 326032 1870 1973 104 1.000 0.841 1.301 4.341 0.918 0.065 7 326041 1892 1976 85 1.000 0.483 0.623 3.517 0.552 0.147 8 326042 1888 1976 89 1.000 0.650 1.290 6.424 0.628 0.315 9 326051 1791 1975 185 1.000 0.529 0.679 2.968 0.547 0.143 10 326052 1790 1976 187 1.000 0.527 1.151 3.797 0.463 0.223 11 326061 1770 1976 207 1.000 0.565 3.436 27.439 0.477 0.055 12 326062 1811 1976 166 1.000 0.561 1.879 10.712 0.571 0.047 13 326071 1714 1975 262 1.000 0.633 3.019 15.255 0.434 0.555 14 326072 1735 1976 242 1.000 0.663 1.863 8.999 0.499 0.576 15 326081 1835 1973 139 1.000 0.469 0.996 5.241 0.385 0.333 16 326082 1797 1961 165 1.000 0.421 0.787 4.070 0.377 0.342 17 326101 1789 1976 188 1.000 0.516 0.847 3.524 0.460 0.344 18 326102 1750 1976 227 1.000 0.562 0.942 4.072 0.538 0.404 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 175 1.000 0.566 1.403 7.323 0.536 0.222 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.000 0.095 0.767 5.910 0.125 0.183 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 186 1.000 0.552 1.196 5.444 0.520 0.206 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 70 0.000 0.117 0.920 4.679 0.089 0.276 MINIMUM VALUE 85 1.000 0.421 0.623 2.968 0.377 -0.058 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 139 1.000 0.516 0.942 4.070 0.463 0.065 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.633 1.863 8.749 0.552 0.342 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.000 0.841 3.436 27.439 0.918 0.576 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 153 0.453 0.134 0.011 0.297 2.750 0.177 0.804 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.177 SERIES 326022 AND 326082 165 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.804 SERIES 326061 AND 326062 166 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 15. 55. 78. 91. 120. 153. 120. RBAR 0.772 0.394 0.452 0.364 0.391 0.482 0.530 0.504 SDEV 0.000 0.141 0.162 0.200 0.178 0.147 0.173 0.170 SERR 0.000 0.036 0.022 0.023 0.019 0.013 0.014 0.016 EPS 0.948 0.867 0.914 0.888 0.908 0.941 0.953 0.947 NSS 5.4 10.0 12.8 13.8 15.3 17.2 18.0 17.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1714 1976 263 0.954 0.390 0.966 5.176 0.417 0.227 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.631 0.342 -0.011 77 186 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.86 1.00 1.08 1.93 18.40 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.83 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.226 0.159 0.057 0.072 0.003 -0.077 0.006 -0.062 -0.035 -0.019 PACF 0.226 0.114 0.000 0.045 -0.028 -0.093 0.044 -0.055 -0.015 0.017 95% C.L. 0.123 0.129 0.132 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.134 0.134 0.135 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.064 0.201 0.113 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1714 1976 263 0.954 0.390 0.966 5.176 0.417 0.227 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.226 0.159 0.057 0.072 0.003 -0.077 0.006 -0.062 -0.035 -0.019 PACF 0.226 0.114 0.000 0.045 -0.028 -0.093 0.044 -0.055 -0.015 0.017 95% C.L. 0.123 0.129 0.132 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.134 0.134 0.135 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.064 0.201 0.113 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.91 MINUTES