RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me2 DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT178N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT178N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 326 1 Krauchthal BE DENSITY_MINIMUM PISY - 326 2 Switzerland Scots pine, Scotch pine 550 4700-734 1714 1976 - 326 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 13 326071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 4 GAPS / 1870 1870 / 1892 1893 / 1911 1911 / 1958 1958 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 326101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1865 1866 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 326011 1764 1976 213 0.303 0.025 0.580 3.300 0.079 0.238 2 326012 1768 1976 209 0.325 0.028 0.302 3.553 0.080 0.269 3 326021 1785 1960 176 0.291 0.032 0.053 3.650 0.076 0.594 4 326022 1778 1976 199 0.279 0.030 1.955 14.601 0.088 0.383 5 326031 1863 1975 113 0.300 0.058 0.481 2.458 0.083 0.858 6 326032 1870 1973 104 0.262 0.031 0.414 3.119 0.072 0.696 7 326041 1892 1976 85 0.290 0.028 0.139 2.914 0.070 0.571 8 326042 1888 1976 89 0.295 0.021 0.326 3.111 0.067 0.354 9 326051 1791 1975 185 0.327 0.047 2.435 10.045 0.075 0.754 10 326052 1790 1976 187 0.346 0.035 1.551 7.255 0.075 0.514 11 326061 1770 1976 207 0.307 0.034 0.236 3.113 0.078 0.602 12 326062 1811 1976 166 0.294 0.040 0.574 3.884 0.083 0.628 13 326071 1714 1975 262 0.363 0.056 0.411 3.023 0.101 0.618 14 326072 1735 1976 242 0.333 0.050 1.108 4.302 0.091 0.657 15 326081 1835 1973 139 0.321 0.032 0.308 2.970 0.105 0.148 16 326082 1797 1961 165 0.314 0.038 1.429 7.290 0.097 0.386 17 326101 1789 1976 188 0.345 0.038 0.673 3.832 0.092 0.355 18 326102 1750 1976 227 0.327 0.042 0.656 4.700 0.089 0.542 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 18 FROM 1714 TO 1976 263 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 175 0.312 0.037 0.757 4.840 0.083 0.509 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.026 0.010 0.668 3.134 0.011 0.192 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 0.310 0.035 0.527 3.601 0.081 0.556 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 70 0.033 0.013 0.799 1.589 0.016 0.272 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.262 0.021 0.053 2.458 0.067 0.148 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 139 0.294 0.030 0.308 3.111 0.075 0.355 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 0.327 0.042 1.108 4.700 0.091 0.628 MAXIMUM VALUE 257 0.363 0.058 2.435 14.601 0.105 0.858 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 153 0.367 0.190 0.015 -0.079 2.437 -0.068 0.791 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.068 SERIES 326031 AND 326101 113 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.791 SERIES 326031 AND 326061 113 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 15. 55. 78. 91. 120. 153. 120. RBAR 0.753 0.199 0.295 0.419 0.414 0.360 0.366 0.415 SDEV 0.000 0.157 0.265 0.165 0.169 0.230 0.202 0.215 SERR 0.000 0.041 0.036 0.019 0.018 0.021 0.016 0.020 EPS 0.943 0.713 0.843 0.909 0.915 0.906 0.912 0.926 NSS 5.4 10.0 12.8 13.8 15.3 17.2 18.0 17.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1714 1976 263 0.335 0.052 1.520 4.836 0.071 0.770 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.606 -0.175 0.088 75 188 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.82 1.00 1.10 1.92 12.74 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.12 0.00 0.84 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 186. 70. 85. 139. 209. 262. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.767 0.783 0.765 0.720 0.747 0.709 0.704 0.699 0.694 0.675 PACF 0.767 0.473 0.268 0.054 0.182 0.053 0.048 0.051 0.081 -0.006 95% C.L. 0.123 0.182 0.228 0.264 0.292 0.320 0.343 0.364 0.384 0.403 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.753 0.154 0.251 0.179 0.049 0.223 0.097 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 326011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00001442 0.30468819 2 326012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006671 0.33188489 3 326021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00012985 0.30296883 4 326022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006862 0.27183190 5 326031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00079222 0.34559894 6 326032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00060344 0.29360342 7 326041 1 0.26290470 0.00287327 0.00000000 0.05684714 8 326042 1 0.03206967 0.05041750 0.00000000 0.28839111 9 326051 1 0.11030297 0.03061108 0.00000000 0.30791378 10 326052 1 0.11335699 0.05723099 0.00000000 0.33569798 11 326061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014215 0.32183716 12 326062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00060788 0.34485433 13 326071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00040762 0.41686219 14 326072 1 0.14060457 0.01714149 0.00000000 0.30031559 15 326081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00012101 0.32962152 16 326082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00008698 0.32103771 17 326101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00019041 0.36350736 18 326102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00036650 0.36887333 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 326011 1764 1976 213 1.000 0.082 0.613 3.312 0.078 0.236 2 326012 1768 1976 209 1.000 0.085 0.455 3.560 0.080 0.258 3 326021 1785 1960 176 1.000 0.110 0.348 3.502 0.075 0.579 4 326022 1778 1976 199 1.000 0.106 1.799 13.469 0.087 0.369 5 326031 1863 1975 113 0.999 0.171 0.744 3.026 0.083 0.801 6 326032 1870 1973 104 1.000 0.096 1.177 4.681 0.072 0.530 7 326041 1892 1976 85 1.000 0.077 0.558 3.327 0.070 0.331 8 326042 1888 1976 89 1.000 0.067 0.137 3.002 0.067 0.215 9 326051 1791 1975 185 1.000 0.109 1.413 6.468 0.074 0.589 10 326052 1790 1976 187 1.000 0.079 0.784 5.039 0.074 0.214 11 326061 1770 1976 207 1.000 0.109 0.578 3.243 0.078 0.587 12 326062 1811 1976 166 1.000 0.092 0.864 4.547 0.083 0.200 13 326071 1714 1975 262 1.000 0.131 0.802 3.766 0.102 0.428 14 326072 1735 1976 242 1.000 0.102 0.537 3.576 0.091 0.343 15 326081 1835 1973 139 1.000 0.099 0.361 3.011 0.105 0.118 16 326082 1797 1961 165 1.000 0.120 1.333 6.940 0.097 0.369 17 326101 1789 1976 188 1.000 0.105 0.760 4.655 0.091 0.286 18 326102 1750 1976 227 1.000 0.105 0.853 5.301 0.089 0.322 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 175 1.000 0.103 0.784 4.690 0.083 0.376 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.000 0.023 0.419 2.484 0.011 0.178 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 186 1.000 0.104 0.752 3.671 0.081 0.337 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 70 0.000 0.024 0.327 1.727 0.016 0.294 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.999 0.067 0.137 3.002 0.067 0.118 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 139 1.000 0.085 0.537 3.312 0.074 0.236 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.109 0.864 5.039 0.091 0.530 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.000 0.171 1.799 13.469 0.105 0.801 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 326011 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 326012 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 326021 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 326022 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 326031 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 326032 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 326041 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 326042 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 326051 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 326052 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 326061 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 326062 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 326071 -67 175 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 326072 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 326081 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 326082 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 326101 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 326102 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 326011 1764 1976 213 1.000 0.076 0.601 3.411 0.078 0.126 2 326012 1768 1976 209 1.000 0.082 0.701 4.047 0.080 0.190 3 326021 1785 1960 176 0.999 0.085 0.842 4.569 0.076 0.291 4 326022 1778 1976 199 1.000 0.102 1.758 13.259 0.087 0.327 5 326031 1863 1975 113 0.998 0.101 0.476 2.856 0.083 0.440 6 326032 1870 1973 104 1.000 0.084 1.004 4.088 0.072 0.388 7 326041 1892 1976 85 1.000 0.069 0.779 3.894 0.070 0.187 8 326042 1888 1976 89 1.000 0.064 0.207 3.042 0.067 0.135 9 326051 1791 1975 185 1.000 0.102 1.388 6.654 0.074 0.525 10 326052 1790 1976 187 1.000 0.074 0.800 5.650 0.074 0.113 11 326061 1770 1976 207 0.999 0.087 0.461 3.664 0.078 0.347 12 326062 1811 1976 166 1.000 0.087 1.023 5.043 0.083 0.123 13 326071 1714 1975 262 0.999 0.111 1.056 5.588 0.102 0.207 14 326072 1735 1976 242 1.000 0.101 0.496 3.482 0.091 0.331 15 326081 1835 1973 139 1.000 0.092 0.418 3.302 0.105 -0.002 16 326082 1797 1961 165 1.000 0.116 1.314 6.998 0.097 0.341 17 326101 1789 1976 188 0.999 0.094 0.804 5.769 0.091 0.109 18 326102 1750 1976 227 1.000 0.098 0.992 6.714 0.089 0.215 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 175 1.000 0.090 0.840 5.113 0.083 0.244 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.001 0.014 0.388 2.426 0.011 0.137 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 186 1.000 0.090 0.802 4.329 0.081 0.211 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 70 0.000 0.019 0.527 2.287 0.016 0.215 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.998 0.064 0.207 2.856 0.067 -0.002 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 139 0.999 0.082 0.496 3.482 0.074 0.126 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.101 1.023 5.769 0.091 0.341 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.000 0.116 1.758 13.259 0.105 0.525 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 153 0.367 0.134 0.011 -0.077 2.361 0.043 0.706 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.043 SERIES 326051 AND 326072 185 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.706 SERIES 326041 AND 326042 85 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 15. 55. 78. 91. 120. 153. 120. RBAR 0.640 0.228 0.330 0.419 0.454 0.405 0.410 0.422 SDEV 0.000 0.148 0.219 0.164 0.131 0.170 0.178 0.169 SERR 0.000 0.038 0.030 0.019 0.014 0.016 0.014 0.015 EPS 0.906 0.747 0.864 0.909 0.927 0.921 0.926 0.928 NSS 5.4 10.0 12.8 13.8 15.3 17.2 18.0 17.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1714 1976 263 0.999 0.065 0.960 4.376 0.072 0.036 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.062 0.028 0.031 76 187 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.44 1.03 1.01 1.17 2.21 206.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.85 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.035 0.035 0.015 -0.084 0.060 -0.006 0.048 -0.007 0.071 0.134 PACF 0.035 0.034 0.013 -0.087 0.065 -0.005 0.047 -0.020 0.081 0.125 95% C.L. 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.126 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.076 -0.092 -0.069 -0.134 -0.040 -0.005 -0.022 -0.115 0.043 0.108 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.076 2 0.084 -0.098 3 0.078 -0.094 -0.055 4 0.071 -0.106 -0.045 -0.135 5 0.066 -0.108 -0.048 -0.133 -0.033 6 0.065 -0.112 -0.050 -0.136 -0.031 -0.031 7 0.064 -0.113 -0.056 -0.138 -0.036 -0.028 -0.045 8 0.057 -0.117 -0.061 -0.158 -0.044 -0.044 -0.036 -0.142 9 0.063 -0.116 -0.059 -0.156 -0.037 -0.041 -0.031 -0.144 0.041 10 0.060 -0.106 -0.057 -0.153 -0.035 -0.030 -0.027 -0.136 0.037 0.069 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1328.85 1329.32 1328.77 1329.97 1327.13 1328.84 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1330.59 1332.06 1328.71 1330.27 1331.01 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.084 -0.098 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.54 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.56 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.084 -0.091 -0.016 0.008 0.002 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 326011 2 0.025 0.124 0.024 2 326012 2 0.038 0.184 0.036 3 326021 2 0.120 0.239 0.177 4 326022 2 0.128 0.278 0.152 5 326031 2 0.219 0.389 0.137 6 326032 2 0.176 0.355 0.102 7 326041 2 0.046 0.207 -0.100 8 326042 2 0.079 0.159 -0.151 9 326051 2 0.355 0.413 0.219 10 326052 2 0.024 0.105 0.077 11 326061 2 0.182 0.261 0.252 12 326062 2 0.022 0.135 -0.082 13 326071 2 0.058 0.200 0.083 14 326072 2 0.148 0.268 0.191 15 326081 2 0.021 -0.001 0.034 16 326082 2 0.135 0.300 0.126 17 326101 2 0.041 0.092 0.161 18 326102 2 0.048 0.224 -0.035 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.104 0.218 0.078 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.089 0.108 0.114 MEDIAN 2 0.068 0.215 0.093 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.110 0.143 0.137 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.021 -0.001 -0.151 LOWER HINGE 2 0.038 0.135 0.024 UPPER HINGE 2 0.148 0.278 0.161 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.355 0.413 0.252 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 326011 1764 1976 213 1.000 0.075 0.543 3.340 0.084 -0.001 2 326012 1768 1976 209 1.000 0.081 0.769 4.321 0.088 -0.002 3 326021 1785 1960 176 1.000 0.080 0.847 4.269 0.086 -0.015 4 326022 1778 1976 199 1.000 0.095 1.799 13.686 0.100 -0.002 5 326031 1863 1975 113 1.000 0.090 0.228 3.391 0.100 0.003 6 326032 1870 1973 104 1.000 0.077 0.649 2.930 0.086 -0.005 7 326041 1892 1976 85 1.000 0.068 0.872 3.836 0.076 0.003 8 326042 1888 1976 89 1.000 0.063 0.263 3.104 0.070 -0.031 9 326051 1791 1975 185 1.000 0.084 0.883 4.075 0.091 -0.057 10 326052 1790 1976 187 1.000 0.073 0.763 5.626 0.079 -0.006 11 326061 1770 1976 207 1.000 0.079 0.462 3.621 0.090 -0.019 12 326062 1811 1976 166 1.000 0.086 1.113 5.354 0.089 0.003 13 326071 1714 1975 262 1.000 0.108 1.097 5.839 0.113 0.004 14 326072 1735 1976 242 1.000 0.094 0.438 3.463 0.105 -0.016 15 326081 1835 1973 139 1.000 0.092 0.423 3.343 0.105 -0.004 16 326082 1797 1961 165 1.000 0.108 1.079 6.603 0.114 -0.009 17 326101 1789 1976 188 1.000 0.093 0.765 5.362 0.097 -0.010 18 326102 1750 1976 227 1.000 0.096 0.893 6.896 0.099 0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 175 1.000 0.086 0.771 4.948 0.093 -0.009 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.000 0.013 0.373 2.501 0.012 0.015 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 186 1.000 0.085 0.767 4.172 0.090 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 70 0.000 0.016 0.432 2.235 0.015 0.016 MINIMUM VALUE 85 1.000 0.063 0.228 2.930 0.070 -0.057 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 139 1.000 0.077 0.462 3.391 0.086 -0.015 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.094 0.893 5.626 0.100 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.000 0.108 1.799 13.686 0.114 0.004 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 153 0.425 0.107 0.009 -0.079 2.229 0.208 0.684 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.208 SERIES 326012 AND 326101 188 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.684 SERIES 326041 AND 326042 85 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 15. 55. 78. 91. 120. 153. 120. RBAR 0.618 0.263 0.387 0.477 0.499 0.476 0.464 0.451 SDEV 0.000 0.126 0.164 0.133 0.115 0.118 0.136 0.142 SERR 0.000 0.033 0.022 0.015 0.012 0.011 0.011 0.013 EPS 0.897 0.781 0.890 0.927 0.939 0.940 0.940 0.935 NSS 5.4 10.0 12.8 13.8 15.3 17.2 18.0 17.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1714 1976 263 1.000 0.067 0.827 4.061 0.080 -0.162 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.117 0.048 0.008 76 187 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.91 1.01 1.09 2.00 9.86 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.00 0.85 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.161 -0.062 0.025 -0.111 0.069 -0.012 0.040 -0.033 0.073 0.121 PACF -0.161 -0.091 0.000 -0.116 0.033 -0.013 0.048 -0.034 0.085 0.145 95% C.L. 0.123 0.126 0.127 0.127 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.130 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.034 -0.177 -0.091 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.011 -0.018 -0.108 0.056 -0.005 0.049 -0.003 0.087 0.117 PACF 0.000 -0.011 -0.018 -0.108 0.056 -0.008 0.047 -0.013 0.102 0.116 95% C.L. 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.126 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 0.000 -0.011 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1714 1976 263 1.000 0.066 0.893 4.261 0.071 0.078 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.078 -0.095 -0.047 -0.096 0.047 0.013 0.034 -0.004 0.102 0.115 PACF 0.078 -0.102 -0.031 -0.100 0.057 -0.018 0.039 -0.017 0.125 0.097 95% C.L. 0.123 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.128 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.017 0.086 -0.102 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES