RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me2 DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT178P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT178P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 326 1 Krauchthal BE LATEWOOD_PERCENT PISY - 326 2 Switzerland Scots pine, Scotch pine 550 4700-734 1714 1976 - 326 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 13 326071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 4 GAPS / 1870 1870 / 1892 1893 / 1911 1911 / 1958 1958 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 326101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1865 1866 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 326011 1764 1976 213 2.310 0.934 -0.065 2.675 0.487 0.123 2 326012 1768 1976 209 2.570 0.920 -0.122 3.108 0.380 0.216 3 326021 1785 1960 176 2.715 1.043 -0.296 3.274 0.386 0.353 4 326022 1778 1976 199 2.485 0.978 0.715 4.555 0.379 0.244 5 326031 1863 1975 113 1.856 1.029 0.424 2.793 0.642 0.103 6 326032 1870 1973 104 1.748 1.169 0.552 2.791 0.842 -0.024 7 326041 1892 1976 85 2.071 0.803 -0.192 2.672 0.440 0.050 8 326042 1888 1976 89 2.353 1.171 -0.294 2.399 0.549 0.294 9 326051 1791 1975 185 2.818 1.163 0.250 3.252 0.409 0.360 10 326052 1790 1976 187 3.074 1.207 0.965 4.165 0.372 0.268 11 326061 1770 1976 207 2.723 1.008 0.206 3.464 0.418 0.042 12 326062 1811 1976 166 2.652 1.311 0.631 3.755 0.496 0.272 13 326071 1714 1975 262 3.014 1.126 0.756 5.056 0.336 0.388 14 326072 1735 1976 242 3.066 1.228 0.440 3.763 0.351 0.474 15 326081 1835 1973 139 2.246 0.844 0.180 3.948 0.370 0.280 16 326082 1797 1961 165 2.569 0.989 0.838 5.806 0.380 0.267 17 326101 1789 1976 188 3.459 1.322 0.746 4.475 0.359 0.370 18 326102 1750 1976 227 2.965 1.049 -0.022 3.701 0.412 0.011 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 18 FROM 1714 TO 1976 263 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 175 2.594 1.072 0.317 3.647 0.445 0.227 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.448 0.150 0.413 0.910 0.126 0.145 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 2.611 1.046 0.337 3.582 0.397 0.267 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 70 0.655 0.193 0.780 1.371 0.116 0.250 MINIMUM VALUE 85 1.748 0.803 -0.296 2.399 0.336 -0.024 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 139 2.310 0.978 -0.065 2.793 0.372 0.103 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 2.965 1.171 0.715 4.165 0.487 0.353 MAXIMUM VALUE 257 3.459 1.322 0.965 5.806 0.842 0.474 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 153 0.460 0.122 0.010 -0.196 2.679 0.126 0.800 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.126 SERIES 326032 AND 326082 92 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.800 SERIES 326061 AND 326062 166 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 15. 55. 78. 91. 120. 153. 120. RBAR 0.585 0.426 0.483 0.423 0.379 0.449 0.482 0.498 SDEV 0.000 0.102 0.121 0.223 0.157 0.134 0.135 0.151 SERR 0.000 0.026 0.016 0.025 0.016 0.012 0.011 0.014 EPS 0.884 0.881 0.923 0.910 0.903 0.934 0.944 0.946 NSS 5.4 10.0 12.8 13.8 15.3 17.2 18.0 17.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1714 1976 263 2.989 1.083 1.036 6.061 0.307 0.446 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.225 -0.072 0.890 65 198 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.66 1.10 1.00 1.11 2.21 11.49 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.12 0.00 0.84 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 186. 70. 85. 139. 209. 262. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.445 0.501 0.470 0.405 0.399 0.440 0.413 0.382 0.448 0.391 PACF 0.445 0.378 0.237 0.085 0.075 0.162 0.108 0.025 0.136 0.051 95% C.L. 0.123 0.146 0.170 0.189 0.201 0.213 0.226 0.238 0.247 0.259 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.414 0.132 0.308 0.255 0.104 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 326011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00731806 3.09303212 2 326012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00548724 3.14577699 3 326021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01109484 3.69660902 4 326022 1 0.91627896 0.01268165 0.00000000 2.15323830 5 326031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00272731 2.01120901 6 326032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00141545 1.67395818 7 326041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01223334 2.59697485 8 326042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00545863 2.10784459 9 326051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01133471 3.87196589 10 326052 1 2.98401356 0.04173594 0.00000000 2.70002341 11 326061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00521187 3.26522303 12 326062 1 2.96043491 0.01453691 0.00000000 1.54366314 13 326071 1 2.76716518 0.02313434 0.00000000 2.55447721 14 326072 1 2.91654921 0.01505250 0.00000000 2.29236341 15 326081 1 1.59178662 0.00954903 0.00000000 1.36949754 16 326082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00663075 3.11980700 17 326101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01039884 4.43325138 18 326102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00342825 3.35601926 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 326011 1764 1976 213 1.000 0.379 0.032 3.036 0.485 -0.184 2 326012 1768 1976 209 0.999 0.351 0.078 3.629 0.378 0.138 3 326021 1785 1960 176 0.999 0.370 0.104 3.656 0.383 0.167 4 326022 1778 1976 199 1.000 0.392 0.967 5.975 0.377 0.183 5 326031 1863 1975 113 1.000 0.559 0.460 2.775 0.636 0.095 6 326032 1870 1973 104 1.000 0.663 0.523 2.770 0.833 -0.028 7 326041 1892 1976 85 1.000 0.365 -0.247 2.945 0.435 -0.045 8 326042 1888 1976 89 1.000 0.489 -0.396 2.445 0.543 0.263 9 326051 1791 1975 185 0.998 0.365 -0.078 2.741 0.407 0.097 10 326052 1790 1976 187 1.000 0.329 0.349 2.949 0.370 -0.023 11 326061 1770 1976 207 0.999 0.367 0.600 4.892 0.416 -0.057 12 326062 1811 1976 166 1.000 0.430 0.693 5.642 0.493 -0.070 13 326071 1714 1975 262 1.000 0.320 0.242 3.689 0.342 0.116 14 326072 1735 1976 242 1.000 0.338 -0.041 3.717 0.349 0.254 15 326081 1835 1973 139 1.000 0.375 0.808 6.439 0.368 0.131 16 326082 1797 1961 165 1.000 0.370 0.803 5.451 0.378 0.160 17 326101 1789 1976 188 1.000 0.354 0.674 4.002 0.356 0.167 18 326102 1750 1976 227 1.000 0.346 -0.119 3.540 0.410 -0.022 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 175 1.000 0.398 0.303 3.905 0.442 0.075 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.001 0.088 0.406 1.239 0.124 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 186 1.000 0.369 0.296 3.642 0.395 0.107 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 70 0.000 0.041 0.715 1.948 0.115 0.195 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.998 0.320 -0.396 2.445 0.342 -0.184 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 139 1.000 0.351 -0.041 2.945 0.370 -0.028 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.392 0.674 4.892 0.485 0.167 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.000 0.663 0.967 6.439 0.833 0.263 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 326011 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 326012 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 326021 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 326022 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 326031 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 326032 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 326041 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 326042 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 326051 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 326052 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 326061 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 326062 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 326071 -67 175 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 326072 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 326081 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 326082 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 326101 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 326102 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 326011 1764 1976 213 0.999 0.376 0.014 3.076 0.485 -0.204 2 326012 1768 1976 209 0.997 0.342 0.091 3.478 0.378 0.079 3 326021 1785 1960 176 0.999 0.373 0.226 3.870 0.384 0.170 4 326022 1778 1976 199 0.998 0.379 0.853 5.660 0.377 0.151 5 326031 1863 1975 113 0.997 0.538 0.451 3.006 0.637 -0.062 6 326032 1870 1973 104 0.995 0.645 0.429 2.567 0.833 -0.089 7 326041 1892 1976 85 0.998 0.353 -0.394 3.130 0.434 -0.089 8 326042 1888 1976 89 0.990 0.467 -0.240 3.019 0.544 0.128 9 326051 1791 1975 185 0.998 0.357 -0.145 2.579 0.407 0.040 10 326052 1790 1976 187 0.999 0.325 0.291 2.698 0.370 -0.054 11 326061 1770 1976 207 0.999 0.359 0.654 5.763 0.416 -0.115 12 326062 1811 1976 166 0.998 0.420 0.566 5.298 0.493 -0.088 13 326071 1714 1975 262 0.999 0.316 0.250 3.795 0.342 0.098 14 326072 1735 1976 242 0.998 0.328 -0.142 3.723 0.349 0.212 15 326081 1835 1973 139 0.999 0.373 0.801 6.526 0.367 0.126 16 326082 1797 1961 165 0.998 0.362 0.763 5.517 0.378 0.133 17 326101 1789 1976 188 0.996 0.332 0.472 3.771 0.356 0.070 18 326102 1750 1976 227 0.999 0.343 -0.134 3.588 0.410 -0.042 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 175 0.998 0.388 0.267 3.948 0.442 0.026 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.002 0.084 0.384 1.240 0.124 0.120 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 186 0.998 0.360 0.271 3.656 0.395 0.055 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 70 0.002 0.036 0.700 2.279 0.115 0.216 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.990 0.316 -0.394 2.567 0.342 -0.204 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 139 0.997 0.342 -0.134 3.019 0.370 -0.088 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 0.999 0.379 0.566 5.298 0.485 0.128 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 0.999 0.645 0.853 6.526 0.833 0.212 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 153 0.455 0.106 0.009 0.039 3.834 0.146 0.832 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.146 SERIES 326032 AND 326082 92 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.832 SERIES 326061 AND 326062 166 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 15. 55. 78. 91. 120. 153. 120. RBAR 0.504 0.458 0.529 0.415 0.380 0.465 0.503 0.490 SDEV 0.000 0.085 0.103 0.209 0.167 0.121 0.133 0.139 SERR 0.000 0.022 0.014 0.024 0.018 0.011 0.011 0.013 EPS 0.846 0.894 0.935 0.908 0.904 0.937 0.948 0.944 NSS 5.4 10.0 12.8 13.8 15.3 17.2 18.0 17.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1714 1976 263 0.989 0.248 -0.319 3.517 0.304 -0.105 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.190 0.097 0.119 69 194 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 1.07 1.00 1.09 2.16 4.93 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.12 0.00 0.84 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.105 0.029 -0.024 -0.017 -0.063 -0.055 0.012 -0.093 0.012 -0.009 PACF -0.105 0.018 -0.019 -0.022 -0.067 -0.069 0.000 -0.094 -0.015 -0.014 95% C.L. 0.123 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.127 0.127 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.012 -0.106 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.110 -0.020 -0.047 -0.013 -0.034 -0.075 0.019 -0.086 -0.032 -0.008 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.110 2 -0.113 -0.033 3 -0.115 -0.039 -0.054 4 -0.117 -0.040 -0.057 -0.025 5 -0.118 -0.042 -0.059 -0.030 -0.042 6 -0.121 -0.045 -0.064 -0.034 -0.052 -0.089 7 -0.122 -0.045 -0.064 -0.034 -0.052 -0.089 -0.005 8 -0.122 -0.054 -0.069 -0.038 -0.058 -0.094 -0.017 -0.097 9 -0.129 -0.055 -0.075 -0.041 -0.061 -0.098 -0.020 -0.106 -0.067 10 -0.131 -0.058 -0.076 -0.045 -0.063 -0.100 -0.023 -0.107 -0.071 -0.034 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2144.40 2143.21 2144.93 2146.16 2147.99 2149.54 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2149.46 2151.46 2150.95 2151.77 2153.48 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.110 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.21 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.22 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.110 0.012 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 326011 1 0.052 -0.205 2 326012 1 0.008 0.080 3 326021 1 0.050 0.172 4 326022 1 0.043 0.154 5 326031 1 0.013 -0.062 6 326032 1 0.023 -0.089 7 326041 1 0.010 -0.089 8 326042 1 0.030 0.129 9 326051 1 0.007 0.040 10 326052 1 0.005 -0.055 11 326061 1 0.016 -0.115 12 326062 1 0.026 -0.089 13 326071 1 0.021 0.099 14 326072 1 0.076 0.214 15 326081 1 0.019 0.130 16 326082 1 0.021 0.133 17 326101 1 0.022 0.072 18 326102 1 0.033 -0.042 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.026 0.026 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.019 0.121 MEDIAN 1 0.022 0.056 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.021 0.219 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.005 -0.205 LOWER HINGE 1 0.013 -0.089 UPPER HINGE 1 0.033 0.130 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.076 0.214 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 326011 1764 1976 213 1.000 0.368 0.123 2.871 0.425 0.021 2 326012 1768 1976 209 1.000 0.341 0.094 3.393 0.392 -0.003 3 326021 1785 1960 176 1.000 0.368 0.120 3.589 0.422 -0.023 4 326022 1778 1976 199 1.000 0.374 0.753 5.464 0.409 -0.021 5 326031 1863 1975 113 1.000 0.537 0.426 2.969 0.633 -0.006 6 326032 1870 1973 104 1.000 0.643 0.455 2.622 0.835 -0.011 7 326041 1892 1976 85 1.000 0.351 -0.382 3.045 0.419 -0.004 8 326042 1888 1976 89 1.000 0.463 -0.255 2.976 0.570 -0.014 9 326051 1791 1975 185 1.000 0.357 -0.140 2.568 0.414 0.003 10 326052 1790 1976 187 1.000 0.324 0.295 2.662 0.358 -0.003 11 326061 1770 1976 207 1.000 0.356 0.588 5.223 0.394 -0.006 12 326062 1811 1976 166 1.000 0.418 0.529 4.966 0.475 -0.013 13 326071 1714 1975 262 1.000 0.315 0.263 3.784 0.358 -0.011 14 326072 1735 1976 242 1.000 0.321 -0.190 3.540 0.390 -0.036 15 326081 1835 1973 139 1.000 0.369 0.834 6.435 0.392 0.010 16 326082 1797 1961 165 1.000 0.359 0.789 5.475 0.398 -0.007 17 326101 1789 1976 188 1.000 0.331 0.387 3.708 0.371 -0.008 18 326102 1750 1976 227 1.000 0.343 -0.150 3.579 0.401 0.007 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 175 1.000 0.385 0.252 3.826 0.448 -0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.000 0.084 0.375 1.169 0.120 0.013 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 186 1.000 0.358 0.279 3.559 0.405 -0.006 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 70 0.000 0.033 0.669 1.997 0.033 0.010 MINIMUM VALUE 85 1.000 0.315 -0.382 2.568 0.358 -0.036 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 139 1.000 0.341 -0.140 2.969 0.392 -0.013 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.374 0.529 4.966 0.425 -0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.000 0.643 0.834 6.435 0.835 0.021 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 153 0.460 0.103 0.008 0.034 3.981 0.151 0.828 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.151 SERIES 326032 AND 326082 92 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.828 SERIES 326061 AND 326062 166 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 15. 55. 78. 91. 120. 153. 120. RBAR 0.559 0.453 0.528 0.412 0.389 0.475 0.504 0.488 SDEV 0.000 0.090 0.099 0.197 0.161 0.116 0.128 0.134 SERR 0.000 0.023 0.013 0.022 0.017 0.011 0.010 0.012 EPS 0.873 0.892 0.935 0.907 0.907 0.940 0.948 0.944 NSS 5.4 10.0 12.8 13.8 15.3 17.2 18.0 17.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1714 1976 263 0.992 0.247 -0.314 3.443 0.307 -0.131 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.186 0.093 0.122 68 195 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.68 1.01 1.08 1.77 7.64 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.131 0.020 -0.020 -0.013 -0.061 -0.039 0.011 -0.087 0.019 -0.012 PACF -0.131 0.003 -0.018 -0.018 -0.066 -0.057 -0.001 -0.090 -0.010 -0.016 95% C.L. 0.123 0.125 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.127 0.127 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.018 -0.133 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.002 -0.018 -0.022 -0.070 -0.049 -0.008 -0.087 0.006 -0.014 PACF 0.000 0.002 -0.018 -0.022 -0.070 -0.049 -0.009 -0.090 0.000 -0.022 95% C.L. 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.125 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1714 1976 263 0.992 0.247 -0.303 3.435 0.302 -0.109 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.108 0.015 -0.019 -0.014 -0.063 -0.041 0.008 -0.087 0.017 -0.012 PACF -0.108 0.003 -0.018 -0.018 -0.067 -0.056 -0.002 -0.090 -0.008 -0.017 95% C.L. 0.123 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.126 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.012 -0.110 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.24 MINUTES