RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me2 DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT178W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT178W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 326 1 Krauchthal BE WIDTH_RING PISY - 326 2 Switzerland Scots pine, Scotch pine 550 4700-734 1714 1976 - 326 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 13 326071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 4 GAPS / 1870 1870 / 1892 1893 / 1911 1911 / 1958 1958 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 326101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1865 1866 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 326011 1764 1976 213 0.682 0.545 1.732 5.730 0.274 0.880 2 326012 1768 1976 209 0.762 0.419 1.848 7.757 0.273 0.741 3 326021 1785 1960 176 0.575 0.362 1.182 3.990 0.304 0.835 4 326022 1778 1976 199 0.615 0.472 1.577 5.774 0.306 0.802 5 326031 1863 1975 113 0.525 0.199 1.172 4.631 0.321 0.397 6 326032 1870 1973 104 0.611 0.240 1.741 6.819 0.323 0.395 7 326041 1892 1976 85 0.475 0.168 1.252 4.734 0.285 0.389 8 326042 1888 1976 89 0.488 0.215 1.402 4.825 0.300 0.548 9 326051 1791 1975 185 0.692 0.363 0.556 2.484 0.299 0.761 10 326052 1790 1976 187 0.561 0.288 1.003 3.249 0.259 0.767 11 326061 1770 1976 207 0.902 0.392 1.584 6.643 0.271 0.652 12 326062 1811 1976 166 0.838 0.266 0.797 4.379 0.300 0.295 13 326071 1714 1975 262 0.345 0.341 4.492 26.056 0.344 0.888 14 326072 1735 1976 242 0.739 0.582 4.052 23.800 0.264 0.879 15 326081 1835 1973 139 0.506 0.260 1.307 5.809 0.271 0.807 16 326082 1797 1961 165 0.497 0.274 1.499 4.766 0.268 0.822 17 326101 1789 1976 188 0.652 0.358 1.212 5.490 0.270 0.774 18 326102 1750 1976 227 0.534 0.292 1.807 8.111 0.334 0.656 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 18 FROM 1714 TO 1976 263 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 175 0.611 0.335 1.679 7.503 0.293 0.683 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.140 0.115 1.008 6.510 0.026 0.194 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 0.593 0.316 1.450 5.610 0.292 0.764 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 70 0.186 0.132 0.559 2.189 0.035 0.273 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.345 0.168 0.556 2.484 0.259 0.295 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 139 0.506 0.260 1.182 4.631 0.271 0.548 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 0.692 0.392 1.741 6.819 0.306 0.822 MAXIMUM VALUE 257 0.902 0.582 4.492 26.056 0.344 0.888 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 153 0.445 0.264 0.021 -0.510 2.915 -0.305 0.901 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.305 SERIES 326031 AND 326051 113 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.901 SERIES 326011 AND 326012 209 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 15. 55. 78. 91. 120. 153. 120. RBAR 0.901 0.462 0.378 0.346 0.416 0.464 0.468 0.499 SDEV 0.000 0.263 0.387 0.285 0.229 0.183 0.216 0.143 SERR 0.000 0.068 0.052 0.032 0.024 0.017 0.017 0.013 EPS 0.980 0.896 0.886 0.880 0.916 0.937 0.941 0.946 NSS 5.4 10.0 12.8 13.8 15.3 17.2 18.0 17.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1714 1976 263 0.666 0.377 2.411 10.511 0.246 0.860 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.731 0.368 0.027 48 215 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 0.92 1.00 1.09 2.00 15.99 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.12 0.00 0.83 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 186. 70. 85. 139. 209. 262. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.857 0.793 0.716 0.650 0.607 0.538 0.529 0.499 0.475 0.415 PACF 0.857 0.222 -0.014 -0.002 0.070 -0.084 0.158 0.023 -0.003 -0.147 95% C.L. 0.123 0.194 0.238 0.269 0.292 0.310 0.324 0.337 0.348 0.358 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.755 0.670 0.222 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 326011 1 2.04405642 0.02209724 0.00000000 0.25667605 2 326012 1 1.36464512 0.01824374 0.00000000 0.41516697 3 326021 1 1.22949493 0.02004056 0.00000000 0.24028392 4 326022 1 1.60378671 0.01624037 0.00000000 0.14265962 5 326031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00257960 0.37791878 6 326032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00193551 0.50982821 7 326041 1 0.25332606 0.02786780 0.00000000 0.37935334 8 326042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00375502 0.65672880 9 326051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00401573 1.06497645 10 326052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00312847 0.85498536 11 326061 1 1.42121959 0.05046266 0.00000000 0.76894778 12 326062 1 0.81403387 0.13403955 0.00000000 0.80388457 13 326071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00197320 0.60036719 14 326072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00431900 1.26364255 15 326081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00486541 0.84633404 16 326082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00276230 0.72617960 17 326101 1 1.56806767 0.09071759 0.00000000 0.55855340 18 326102 1 1.27916586 0.08316433 0.00000000 0.46880931 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 326011 1764 1976 213 1.003 0.305 0.569 3.647 0.272 0.347 2 326012 1768 1976 209 0.999 0.279 0.346 2.833 0.272 0.274 3 326021 1785 1960 176 0.998 0.363 1.142 6.082 0.302 0.436 4 326022 1778 1976 199 0.999 0.367 1.047 5.306 0.306 0.433 5 326031 1863 1975 113 0.997 0.330 1.052 4.597 0.318 0.206 6 326032 1870 1973 104 1.000 0.376 1.727 6.764 0.320 0.341 7 326041 1892 1976 85 1.000 0.318 0.886 3.733 0.281 0.297 8 326042 1888 1976 89 1.000 0.371 1.232 5.322 0.297 0.417 9 326051 1791 1975 185 0.983 0.408 0.942 3.821 0.297 0.650 10 326052 1790 1976 187 0.992 0.364 0.853 3.650 0.258 0.618 11 326061 1770 1976 207 1.000 0.316 0.847 5.436 0.270 0.425 12 326062 1811 1976 166 1.000 0.293 0.767 5.360 0.299 0.157 13 326071 1714 1975 262 1.035 0.715 3.143 16.126 0.356 0.770 14 326072 1735 1976 242 1.016 0.501 2.990 16.904 0.263 0.748 15 326081 1835 1973 139 0.999 0.313 0.771 3.682 0.269 0.433 16 326082 1797 1961 165 0.995 0.423 1.135 4.414 0.266 0.710 17 326101 1789 1976 188 1.000 0.455 0.439 2.938 0.271 0.728 18 326102 1750 1976 227 1.000 0.426 0.698 4.157 0.332 0.570 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 175 1.001 0.385 1.144 5.821 0.291 0.476 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.010 0.102 0.767 4.035 0.027 0.193 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 186 1.000 0.366 0.914 4.505 0.289 0.433 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 70 0.002 0.107 0.375 1.754 0.036 0.309 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.983 0.279 0.346 2.833 0.258 0.157 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 139 0.998 0.316 0.767 3.682 0.270 0.341 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.423 1.142 5.436 0.306 0.650 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.035 0.715 3.143 16.904 0.356 0.770 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 326011 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 326012 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 326021 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 326022 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 326031 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 326032 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 326041 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 326042 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 326051 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 326052 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 326061 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 326062 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 326071 -67 175 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 326072 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 326081 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 326082 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 326101 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 326102 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 326011 1764 1976 213 0.998 0.272 0.424 3.642 0.272 0.152 2 326012 1768 1976 209 0.999 0.270 0.326 2.789 0.272 0.235 3 326021 1785 1960 176 0.997 0.348 1.100 6.056 0.302 0.380 4 326022 1778 1976 199 0.999 0.362 0.929 4.842 0.306 0.419 5 326031 1863 1975 113 0.997 0.292 0.757 3.803 0.318 0.046 6 326032 1870 1973 104 0.995 0.329 1.090 4.612 0.319 0.197 7 326041 1892 1976 85 0.999 0.310 0.840 3.623 0.281 0.273 8 326042 1888 1976 89 0.998 0.353 0.978 4.501 0.296 0.383 9 326051 1791 1975 185 0.993 0.323 0.293 2.541 0.298 0.411 10 326052 1790 1976 187 0.996 0.338 0.743 3.205 0.258 0.528 11 326061 1770 1976 207 0.998 0.306 0.832 5.245 0.270 0.402 12 326062 1811 1976 166 0.999 0.280 0.688 5.175 0.299 0.101 13 326071 1714 1975 262 0.973 0.535 3.456 19.321 0.355 0.686 14 326072 1735 1976 242 0.990 0.431 3.150 18.975 0.263 0.687 15 326081 1835 1973 139 0.998 0.301 0.713 3.659 0.269 0.388 16 326082 1797 1961 165 0.992 0.374 0.667 3.300 0.265 0.631 17 326101 1789 1976 188 0.983 0.384 0.321 2.483 0.271 0.635 18 326102 1750 1976 227 0.997 0.410 0.581 3.604 0.332 0.541 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 175 0.994 0.345 0.994 5.632 0.291 0.394 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.007 0.066 0.877 5.013 0.027 0.199 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 186 0.997 0.333 0.750 3.731 0.289 0.395 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 70 0.005 0.073 0.397 1.875 0.036 0.306 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.973 0.270 0.293 2.483 0.258 0.046 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 139 0.993 0.301 0.581 3.300 0.270 0.235 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 0.998 0.374 0.978 5.175 0.306 0.541 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 0.999 0.535 3.456 19.321 0.355 0.687 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 153 0.429 0.144 0.012 0.060 3.142 0.000 0.817 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.000 SERIES 326082 AND 326101 165 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.817 SERIES 326041 AND 326042 85 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 15. 55. 78. 91. 120. 153. 120. RBAR 0.896 0.353 0.330 0.331 0.412 0.503 0.547 0.467 SDEV 0.000 0.146 0.210 0.224 0.211 0.163 0.135 0.147 SERR 0.000 0.038 0.028 0.025 0.022 0.015 0.011 0.013 EPS 0.979 0.845 0.863 0.872 0.915 0.946 0.956 0.939 NSS 5.4 10.0 12.8 13.8 15.3 17.2 18.0 17.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1714 1976 263 0.958 0.290 1.474 8.668 0.254 0.481 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.701 0.496 -0.237 61 202 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.42 1.00 1.08 1.50 7.11 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.83 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.479 0.342 0.205 0.093 0.072 -0.049 0.006 -0.025 -0.006 -0.064 PACF 0.479 0.146 -0.006 -0.052 0.028 -0.116 0.073 -0.021 0.018 -0.091 95% C.L. 0.123 0.149 0.160 0.164 0.165 0.166 0.166 0.166 0.166 0.166 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.248 0.412 0.145 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.296 0.173 0.049 -0.054 -0.001 -0.149 -0.093 -0.096 0.007 0.046 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.296 2 0.269 0.094 3 0.271 0.101 -0.028 4 0.269 0.110 -0.005 -0.085 5 0.272 0.110 -0.009 -0.095 0.039 6 0.278 0.095 -0.011 -0.078 0.080 -0.153 7 0.275 0.097 -0.012 -0.079 0.082 -0.148 -0.020 8 0.274 0.092 -0.009 -0.082 0.082 -0.144 -0.009 -0.037 9 0.277 0.092 0.002 -0.088 0.088 -0.144 -0.016 -0.057 0.073 10 0.275 0.094 0.002 -0.084 0.085 -0.142 -0.016 -0.059 0.067 0.025 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2051.37 2029.20 2028.88 2030.68 2030.77 2032.38 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2028.12 2030.02 2031.66 2032.24 2034.07 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.269 0.094 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 9.58 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 110.60 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.269 0.166 0.070 0.034 0.016 0.007 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.0004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 326011 2 0.023 0.152 0.002 2 326012 2 0.059 0.230 0.039 3 326021 2 0.155 0.351 0.076 4 326022 2 0.215 0.396 0.056 5 326031 2 0.025 0.042 0.097 6 326032 2 0.051 0.179 0.103 7 326041 2 0.075 0.268 0.020 8 326042 2 0.162 0.424 -0.103 9 326051 2 0.237 0.323 0.219 10 326052 2 0.339 0.436 0.187 11 326061 2 0.188 0.351 0.130 12 326062 2 0.028 0.093 0.083 13 326071 2 0.480 0.623 0.096 14 326072 2 0.479 0.659 0.044 15 326081 2 0.209 0.303 0.231 16 326082 2 0.479 0.418 0.343 17 326101 2 0.430 0.515 0.193 18 326102 2 0.310 0.460 0.151 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.219 0.346 0.109 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.166 0.168 0.102 MEDIAN 2 0.198 0.351 0.097 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.280 0.206 0.143 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.023 0.042 -0.103 LOWER HINGE 2 0.059 0.230 0.044 UPPER HINGE 2 0.339 0.436 0.187 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.480 0.659 0.343 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 326011 1764 1976 213 1.000 0.269 0.460 3.735 0.291 0.000 2 326012 1768 1976 209 1.000 0.262 0.288 2.821 0.301 -0.003 3 326021 1785 1960 176 1.000 0.321 0.853 6.042 0.361 0.006 4 326022 1778 1976 199 1.000 0.328 0.655 4.619 0.362 0.011 5 326031 1863 1975 113 1.000 0.290 0.759 4.056 0.321 0.011 6 326032 1870 1973 104 1.000 0.320 0.906 4.404 0.353 -0.006 7 326041 1892 1976 85 1.000 0.298 0.823 3.505 0.316 -0.001 8 326042 1888 1976 89 1.000 0.324 0.966 4.892 0.358 -0.006 9 326051 1791 1975 185 1.000 0.287 -0.020 2.667 0.351 -0.039 10 326052 1790 1976 187 1.000 0.278 0.287 3.016 0.311 -0.046 11 326061 1770 1976 207 1.000 0.278 1.032 5.985 0.307 -0.014 12 326062 1811 1976 166 1.000 0.278 0.783 5.535 0.312 -0.008 13 326071 1714 1975 262 1.000 0.385 1.209 9.046 0.449 -0.003 14 326072 1735 1976 242 1.000 0.312 1.385 10.835 0.341 0.004 15 326081 1835 1973 139 1.000 0.268 0.587 3.430 0.304 -0.030 16 326082 1797 1961 165 1.000 0.270 0.319 3.179 0.303 -0.028 17 326101 1789 1976 188 1.000 0.290 0.311 3.078 0.320 0.009 18 326102 1750 1976 227 1.000 0.340 0.492 3.457 0.381 -0.005 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 175 1.000 0.300 0.672 4.683 0.336 -0.008 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.000 0.032 0.364 2.199 0.039 0.017 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 186 1.000 0.290 0.707 3.895 0.320 -0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 70 0.000 0.043 0.587 2.356 0.051 0.018 MINIMUM VALUE 85 1.000 0.262 -0.020 2.667 0.291 -0.046 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 139 1.000 0.278 0.319 3.179 0.307 -0.014 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.321 0.906 5.535 0.358 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.000 0.385 1.385 10.835 0.449 0.011 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 153 0.476 0.103 0.008 0.511 3.100 0.245 0.786 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.245 SERIES 326032 AND 326051 104 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.786 SERIES 326041 AND 326042 85 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 15. 55. 78. 91. 120. 153. 120. RBAR 0.777 0.421 0.457 0.474 0.452 0.481 0.550 0.507 SDEV 0.000 0.112 0.152 0.129 0.138 0.135 0.108 0.106 SERR 0.000 0.029 0.021 0.015 0.015 0.012 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.949 0.879 0.915 0.926 0.927 0.941 0.957 0.948 NSS 5.4 10.0 12.8 13.8 15.3 17.2 18.0 17.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1714 1976 263 0.989 0.230 0.554 5.233 0.275 -0.051 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.454 0.255 -0.063 65 198 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.42 1.00 1.08 1.50 3.87 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.85 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.051 0.007 0.012 -0.050 0.049 -0.149 0.028 -0.034 0.046 -0.016 PACF -0.051 0.004 0.012 -0.049 0.044 -0.145 0.015 -0.036 0.052 -0.030 95% C.L. 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.001 0.009 -0.046 0.039 -0.145 0.018 -0.030 0.044 -0.018 PACF 0.000 0.001 0.009 -0.046 0.039 -0.146 0.021 -0.035 0.052 -0.036 95% C.L. 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.127 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 0.000 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1714 1976 263 0.990 0.241 0.909 6.326 0.238 0.293 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.292 0.166 0.066 -0.019 0.004 -0.133 -0.027 -0.049 -0.005 -0.068 PACF 0.292 0.088 -0.005 -0.055 0.019 -0.142 0.050 -0.027 0.025 -0.088 95% C.L. 0.123 0.133 0.136 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.139 0.139 0.139 0.139 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.093 0.293 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.24 MINUTES