RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: UT511E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: UT511E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 685 1 Ceader Breaks WIDTH_EARLY PCEN - 685 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3120 3735-11351 1581 1983 685 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 10 685262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1880 1882 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 685301 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1873 1878 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 0.771 0.382 1.410 4.571 0.167 0.901 2 685212 1684 1983 300 0.907 0.349 1.094 3.845 0.156 0.834 3 685231 1796 1983 188 1.582 0.728 0.388 2.289 0.133 0.932 4 685232 1822 1983 162 1.490 0.619 0.549 2.512 0.171 0.861 5 685241 1693 1983 291 0.906 0.425 1.145 4.014 0.160 0.896 6 685242 1688 1983 296 0.942 0.541 1.417 4.577 0.161 0.923 7 685251 1796 1983 188 1.689 0.579 0.437 2.805 0.155 0.827 8 685252 1802 1983 182 1.790 0.547 0.287 2.331 0.145 0.820 9 685261 1774 1983 210 1.553 0.600 1.117 3.741 0.146 0.868 10 685262 1769 1971 203 1.538 0.494 1.305 4.396 0.134 0.862 11 685271 1693 1983 291 0.714 0.294 0.545 2.796 0.153 0.859 12 685272 1766 1983 218 0.902 0.339 0.903 3.431 0.148 0.869 13 685281 1651 1983 333 0.578 0.183 0.341 2.924 0.192 0.706 14 685282 1631 1983 353 0.498 0.159 0.317 3.435 0.210 0.674 15 685291 1618 1983 366 0.692 0.234 0.248 3.699 0.179 0.761 16 685292 1645 1983 339 0.690 0.193 0.605 3.462 0.164 0.724 17 685301 1772 1983 212 0.862 0.351 1.079 3.511 0.189 0.804 18 685302 1730 1983 254 0.642 0.258 0.477 2.510 0.204 0.824 19 685311 1680 1983 304 0.718 0.428 0.624 2.499 0.199 0.913 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 0.684 0.294 1.073 4.433 0.181 0.856 21 685322 1653 1983 331 0.607 0.272 0.527 2.561 0.178 0.887 22 685332 1772 1983 212 0.680 0.249 0.178 2.334 0.198 0.764 23 685341 1604 1983 380 0.737 0.506 1.286 3.825 0.194 0.930 24 685342 1581 1983 403 0.674 0.378 1.208 3.907 0.194 0.915 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1581 TO 1983 403 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 279 0.952 0.392 0.773 3.350 0.171 0.842 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.404 0.155 0.414 0.767 0.023 0.072 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 0.754 0.365 0.614 3.448 0.169 0.860 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 128 0.534 0.259 0.719 1.339 0.039 0.086 MINIMUM VALUE 162 0.498 0.159 0.178 2.289 0.133 0.674 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 208 0.682 0.265 0.412 2.537 0.154 0.812 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 1.216 0.523 1.131 3.876 0.193 0.898 MAXIMUM VALUE 403 1.790 0.728 1.417 4.577 0.210 0.932 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.323 0.398 0.024 -0.306 1.895 -0.601 0.947 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.601 SERIES 685302 AND 685311 254 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.947 SERIES 685241 AND 685242 291 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.69 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 1. 10. 36. 66. 91. 105. 105. 190. 253. 276. RBAR 0.474 0.344 0.280 0.551 0.432 0.305 0.359 0.430 0.437 0.295 SDEV 0.000 0.231 0.280 0.157 0.210 0.329 0.251 0.253 0.203 0.258 SERR 0.000 0.073 0.047 0.019 0.022 0.032 0.025 0.018 0.013 0.016 EPS 0.827 0.813 0.820 0.945 0.918 0.882 0.920 0.945 0.949 0.909 NSS 5.3 8.3 11.7 14.1 14.7 16.9 20.5 22.9 23.9 24.0 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.300 0.354 0.330 SDEV 0.307 0.276 0.263 SERR 0.018 0.017 0.016 EPS 0.912 0.929 0.922 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 0.847 0.276 1.512 5.821 0.138 0.838 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.108 0.061 0.301 168 235 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.34 3.71 1.00 1.32 5.03 16.23 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.84 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 294. 125. 162. 211. 336. 403. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.836 0.775 0.731 0.716 0.702 0.667 0.651 0.605 0.577 0.543 PACF 0.836 0.251 0.127 0.154 0.103 -0.004 0.061 -0.073 -0.014 -0.030 95% C.L. 0.100 0.154 0.189 0.215 0.238 0.257 0.274 0.289 0.301 0.312 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.740 0.571 0.139 -0.006 0.108 0.110 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 685211 1 1.36372983 0.01408181 0.00000000 0.47476658 2 685212 1 1.12579024 0.01136997 0.00000000 0.59004843 3 685231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01198911 2.71461987 4 685232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01020379 2.32130051 5 685241 1 1.50051177 0.00900821 0.00000000 0.37796018 6 685242 1 1.91831958 0.01109855 0.00000000 0.38310012 7 685251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00836837 2.47948122 8 685252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00739430 2.46613860 9 685261 1 2.12544036 0.00777197 0.00000000 0.50971836 10 685262 1 1.60168707 0.00742396 0.00000000 0.70794988 11 685271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00294492 1.14418554 12 685272 1 1.34251153 0.00513379 0.00000000 0.09657059 13 685281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00057571 0.48154473 14 685282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00018898 0.46456784 15 685291 1 0.31308591 0.02499097 0.00000000 0.65811539 16 685292 1 0.45609242 0.03832511 0.00000000 0.65523982 17 685301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00138719 0.71355551 18 685302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00225660 0.35460678 19 685311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00422593 1.36202061 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 685321 1 1.09948516 0.00351568 0.00000000 0.05782222 21 685322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00221204 0.97417688 22 685332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00189617 0.47829384 23 685341 1 1.78934538 0.00987626 0.00000000 0.27367324 24 685342 1 1.07875025 0.01126791 0.00000000 0.44036466 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.221 0.214 3.304 0.166 0.550 2 685212 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.208 -0.074 3.489 0.155 0.562 3 685231 1796 1983 188 1.012 0.261 1.667 7.715 0.133 0.665 4 685232 1822 1983 162 1.002 0.275 1.479 6.590 0.169 0.681 5 685241 1693 1983 291 0.999 0.195 0.502 3.929 0.159 0.497 6 685242 1688 1983 296 0.999 0.210 0.497 3.509 0.160 0.556 7 685251 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.212 0.416 3.291 0.154 0.588 8 685252 1802 1983 182 0.999 0.218 0.745 3.555 0.144 0.655 9 685261 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.207 0.524 3.348 0.145 0.568 10 685262 1769 1971 203 1.000 0.197 0.491 3.429 0.132 0.654 11 685271 1693 1983 291 0.999 0.202 0.195 2.903 0.152 0.537 12 685272 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.230 0.296 2.944 0.147 0.676 13 685281 1651 1983 333 1.001 0.312 0.554 3.420 0.192 0.697 14 685282 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.322 0.505 4.022 0.210 0.674 15 685291 1618 1983 366 1.000 0.328 0.191 3.676 0.179 0.758 16 685292 1645 1983 339 1.000 0.257 0.488 3.368 0.164 0.677 17 685301 1772 1983 212 0.998 0.378 1.042 3.724 0.186 0.775 18 685302 1730 1983 254 0.998 0.302 0.394 3.041 0.203 0.673 19 685311 1680 1983 304 1.117 0.659 3.119 17.759 0.198 0.789 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 1.001 0.265 0.530 3.497 0.180 0.641 21 685322 1653 1983 331 0.999 0.269 0.396 3.071 0.178 0.614 22 685332 1772 1983 212 1.005 0.358 0.676 3.820 0.198 0.730 23 685341 1604 1983 380 1.005 0.279 -0.022 3.106 0.193 0.617 24 685342 1581 1983 403 1.001 0.379 0.501 3.744 0.193 0.795 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 279 1.006 0.281 0.639 4.344 0.170 0.651 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.024 0.099 0.661 3.062 0.023 0.082 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 1.000 0.263 0.499 3.493 0.168 0.660 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.002 0.106 0.270 0.485 0.040 0.111 MINIMUM VALUE 162 0.998 0.195 -0.074 2.903 0.132 0.497 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 0.999 0.211 0.345 3.297 0.153 0.578 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 1.001 0.317 0.615 3.782 0.193 0.689 MAXIMUM VALUE 403 1.117 0.659 3.119 17.759 0.210 0.795 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 685211 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 685212 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 685231 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 685232 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 685241 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 685242 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 685251 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 685252 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 685261 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 685262 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 685271 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 685272 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 685281 -67 223 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 685282 -67 236 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 685291 -67 245 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 685292 -67 227 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 685301 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 685302 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 685311 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 685321 -67 238 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 685322 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 685332 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 685341 -67 254 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 685342 -67 270 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 0.998 0.194 0.128 3.271 0.166 0.408 2 685212 1684 1983 300 0.998 0.193 -0.101 3.907 0.155 0.488 3 685231 1796 1983 188 0.999 0.234 1.269 6.281 0.133 0.658 4 685232 1822 1983 162 0.998 0.262 1.295 5.818 0.169 0.651 5 685241 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.191 0.469 3.933 0.159 0.474 6 685242 1688 1983 296 0.999 0.198 0.574 3.716 0.160 0.496 7 685251 1796 1983 188 0.999 0.204 0.431 3.575 0.154 0.561 8 685252 1802 1983 182 0.998 0.192 0.449 3.370 0.144 0.563 9 685261 1774 1983 210 0.999 0.197 0.455 3.484 0.145 0.531 10 685262 1769 1971 203 0.999 0.189 0.387 3.353 0.132 0.627 11 685271 1693 1983 291 0.999 0.193 0.252 3.110 0.152 0.485 12 685272 1766 1983 218 0.999 0.222 0.257 2.940 0.148 0.657 13 685281 1651 1983 333 0.998 0.291 0.394 3.256 0.192 0.653 14 685282 1631 1983 353 0.998 0.302 0.242 3.259 0.210 0.638 15 685291 1618 1983 366 0.995 0.314 0.380 4.807 0.179 0.735 16 685292 1645 1983 339 0.998 0.236 0.219 2.960 0.164 0.620 17 685301 1772 1983 212 0.990 0.258 0.505 2.717 0.186 0.566 18 685302 1730 1983 254 0.996 0.280 0.324 3.202 0.203 0.624 19 685311 1680 1983 304 0.993 0.328 0.584 4.363 0.198 0.681 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 0.996 0.237 0.512 3.811 0.180 0.556 21 685322 1653 1983 331 0.996 0.243 0.290 2.757 0.178 0.533 22 685332 1772 1983 212 0.992 0.268 0.254 3.182 0.197 0.575 23 685341 1604 1983 380 0.997 0.265 0.061 2.995 0.193 0.586 24 685342 1581 1983 403 0.989 0.282 0.263 3.953 0.193 0.631 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 279 0.997 0.240 0.412 3.667 0.170 0.583 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.003 0.044 0.313 0.889 0.023 0.078 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 0.998 0.237 0.383 3.361 0.168 0.580 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.003 0.078 0.233 0.774 0.040 0.113 MINIMUM VALUE 162 0.989 0.189 -0.101 2.717 0.132 0.408 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 0.996 0.195 0.253 3.146 0.153 0.532 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 0.999 0.274 0.487 3.920 0.193 0.645 MAXIMUM VALUE 403 1.000 0.328 1.295 6.281 0.210 0.735 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.316 0.181 0.011 -0.260 3.026 -0.161 0.816 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.161 SERIES 685231 AND 685322 188 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.816 SERIES 685231 AND 685232 162 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.69 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 1. 10. 36. 66. 91. 105. 105. 190. 253. 276. RBAR 0.456 0.240 0.317 0.454 0.422 0.298 0.387 0.425 0.373 0.320 SDEV 0.000 0.235 0.221 0.159 0.230 0.268 0.217 0.174 0.197 0.221 SERR 0.000 0.074 0.037 0.020 0.024 0.026 0.021 0.013 0.012 0.013 EPS 0.817 0.725 0.845 0.921 0.915 0.878 0.928 0.944 0.934 0.919 NSS 5.3 8.3 11.7 14.1 14.7 16.9 20.5 22.9 23.9 24.0 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.361 0.354 0.328 SDEV 0.267 0.280 0.245 SERR 0.016 0.017 0.015 EPS 0.931 0.929 0.921 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 0.982 0.170 0.131 3.460 0.136 0.504 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.322 0.157 0.033 121 282 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.49 1.00 1.09 1.59 16.93 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.86 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.503 0.337 0.242 0.215 0.188 0.111 0.056 -0.031 -0.052 -0.034 PACF 0.503 0.113 0.048 0.073 0.043 -0.043 -0.034 -0.096 -0.029 0.020 95% C.L. 0.100 0.122 0.131 0.136 0.139 0.141 0.142 0.142 0.143 0.143 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.271 0.450 0.117 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.454 0.252 0.185 0.195 0.134 0.072 -0.017 -0.063 -0.053 -0.039 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.454 2 0.427 0.058 3 0.424 0.030 0.064 4 0.417 0.027 0.021 0.101 5 0.418 0.027 0.022 0.103 -0.005 6 0.418 0.030 0.022 0.104 0.004 -0.022 7 0.416 0.030 0.031 0.106 0.007 0.013 -0.084 8 0.410 0.031 0.031 0.112 0.009 0.015 -0.057 -0.064 9 0.410 0.030 0.031 0.112 0.010 0.015 -0.057 -0.061 -0.007 10 0.410 0.031 0.031 0.112 0.010 0.015 -0.057 -0.061 -0.008 0.002 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3186.99 3096.10 3096.76 3097.08 3094.93 3096.92 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3098.73 3097.88 3098.23 3100.21 3102.21 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.454 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 20.58 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 125.92 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.454 0.206 0.093 0.042 0.019 0.009 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.0004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 685211 1 0.180 0.409 2 685212 1 0.260 0.489 3 685231 1 0.471 0.686 4 685232 1 0.440 0.662 5 685241 1 0.225 0.474 6 685242 1 0.248 0.497 7 685251 1 0.322 0.566 8 685252 1 0.318 0.564 9 685261 1 0.289 0.535 10 685262 1 0.399 0.630 11 685271 1 0.241 0.487 12 685272 1 0.433 0.657 13 685281 1 0.433 0.653 14 685282 1 0.417 0.640 15 685291 1 0.546 0.738 16 685292 1 0.393 0.620 17 685301 1 0.343 0.567 18 685302 1 0.398 0.625 19 685311 1 0.514 0.700 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 685321 1 0.314 0.558 21 685322 1 0.288 0.534 22 685332 1 0.335 0.578 23 685341 1 0.372 0.587 24 685342 1 0.456 0.638 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.360 0.587 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.095 0.081 MEDIAN 1 0.357 0.583 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.145 0.112 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.180 0.409 LOWER HINGE 1 0.288 0.535 UPPER HINGE 1 0.433 0.647 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.546 0.738 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.177 -0.070 3.206 0.199 -0.050 2 685212 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.168 -0.159 4.537 0.197 -0.079 3 685231 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.170 1.190 7.325 0.167 0.011 4 685232 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.196 0.884 4.035 0.204 0.046 5 685241 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.168 0.202 3.357 0.193 0.004 6 685242 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.172 0.441 3.344 0.195 -0.017 7 685251 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.168 0.395 3.863 0.190 0.026 8 685252 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.159 0.558 3.905 0.177 0.015 9 685261 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.166 0.338 3.786 0.185 -0.032 10 685262 1769 1971 203 1.000 0.147 0.153 3.190 0.165 -0.034 11 685271 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.168 0.208 3.342 0.188 -0.035 12 685272 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.167 0.554 3.789 0.182 0.027 13 685281 1651 1983 333 1.000 0.220 0.052 3.679 0.255 -0.068 14 685282 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.232 -0.152 4.014 0.274 -0.070 15 685291 1618 1983 366 1.000 0.212 0.301 3.660 0.239 -0.018 16 685292 1645 1983 339 1.000 0.185 0.056 3.380 0.214 -0.073 17 685301 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.212 0.378 3.588 0.242 -0.100 18 685302 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.218 0.138 3.088 0.259 -0.071 19 685311 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.235 0.237 5.724 0.267 -0.131 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 1.000 0.196 0.305 3.522 0.225 -0.038 21 685322 1653 1983 331 1.000 0.205 0.221 3.238 0.226 -0.031 22 685332 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.218 0.453 4.222 0.240 -0.019 23 685341 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.214 0.095 3.415 0.255 -0.121 24 685342 1581 1983 403 1.000 0.216 0.311 3.921 0.254 -0.189 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 279 1.000 0.191 0.295 3.880 0.216 -0.044 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.000 0.026 0.303 0.920 0.034 0.056 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 1.000 0.191 0.269 3.669 0.209 -0.035 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.000 0.047 0.301 0.617 0.059 0.065 MINIMUM VALUE 162 1.000 0.147 -0.159 3.088 0.165 -0.189 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.168 0.117 3.351 0.189 -0.072 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 1.000 0.215 0.418 3.967 0.248 -0.007 MAXIMUM VALUE 403 1.000 0.235 1.190 7.325 0.274 0.046 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.392 0.112 0.007 0.381 4.188 0.086 0.743 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.086 SERIES 685232 AND 685322 162 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.743 SERIES 685251 AND 685252 182 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.69 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 1. 10. 36. 66. 91. 105. 105. 190. 253. 276. RBAR 0.661 0.471 0.355 0.401 0.483 0.444 0.443 0.385 0.429 0.435 SDEV 0.000 0.105 0.124 0.145 0.138 0.170 0.142 0.154 0.157 0.160 SERR 0.000 0.033 0.021 0.018 0.014 0.017 0.014 0.011 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.912 0.881 0.866 0.904 0.932 0.931 0.942 0.935 0.947 0.949 NSS 5.3 8.3 11.7 14.1 14.7 16.9 20.5 22.9 23.9 24.0 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.421 0.438 0.407 SDEV 0.162 0.177 0.189 SERR 0.010 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.946 0.949 0.943 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 0.995 0.138 0.150 3.468 0.167 -0.135 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.257 0.113 0.023 114 289 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.53 1.00 1.07 1.60 14.35 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.86 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.135 0.021 -0.033 0.066 0.046 0.035 0.023 -0.054 -0.031 0.007 PACF -0.135 0.003 -0.031 0.059 0.065 0.049 0.038 -0.049 -0.053 -0.012 95% C.L. 0.100 0.101 0.101 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.103 0.103 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.018 -0.136 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 -0.001 -0.023 0.070 0.061 0.046 0.022 -0.058 -0.039 -0.012 PACF 0.001 -0.001 -0.023 0.070 0.061 0.046 0.026 -0.060 -0.046 -0.022 95% C.L. 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 0.995 0.154 0.214 3.352 0.129 0.460 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.459 0.218 0.122 0.141 0.127 0.089 0.028 -0.054 -0.073 -0.071 PACF 0.459 0.009 0.023 0.095 0.031 0.003 -0.034 -0.087 -0.033 -0.028 95% C.L. 0.100 0.119 0.123 0.124 0.125 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.128 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.214 0.463 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.31 MINUTES