RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: UT511I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: UT511I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 685 1 Ceader Breaks DENSITY_EARLY PCEN - 685 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3120 3735-11351 1581 1983 685 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 10 685262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1880 1882 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 685301 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1873 1878 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 2.745 0.208 0.057 2.717 0.042 0.767 2 685212 1684 1983 300 2.731 0.239 0.507 2.775 0.047 0.773 3 685231 1796 1983 188 2.562 0.174 0.417 3.163 0.053 0.529 4 685232 1822 1983 162 2.644 0.192 0.685 3.476 0.055 0.541 5 685241 1693 1983 291 2.871 0.200 0.285 3.197 0.043 0.703 6 685242 1688 1983 296 2.806 0.175 0.062 3.649 0.055 0.375 7 685251 1796 1983 188 2.663 0.138 0.323 3.271 0.042 0.454 8 685252 1802 1983 182 2.564 0.125 0.094 4.136 0.041 0.368 9 685261 1774 1983 210 2.767 0.179 -0.017 2.888 0.063 0.277 10 685262 1769 1971 203 2.686 0.185 0.274 3.569 0.053 0.497 11 685271 1693 1983 291 3.109 0.214 0.407 3.176 0.046 0.584 12 685272 1766 1983 218 3.188 0.212 1.454 11.152 0.054 0.380 13 685281 1651 1983 333 3.273 0.210 0.414 3.890 0.051 0.439 14 685282 1631 1983 353 3.609 0.218 0.829 5.799 0.046 0.462 15 685291 1618 1983 366 2.921 0.252 1.397 8.969 0.049 0.663 16 685292 1645 1983 339 2.887 0.176 0.308 3.140 0.049 0.501 17 685301 1772 1983 212 3.549 0.238 0.403 4.408 0.053 0.503 18 685302 1730 1983 254 3.478 0.413 1.727 7.503 0.058 0.768 19 685311 1680 1983 304 2.826 0.173 -0.093 2.929 0.051 0.446 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 3.039 0.210 0.546 4.282 0.049 0.563 21 685322 1653 1983 331 2.899 0.208 0.142 2.592 0.047 0.651 22 685332 1772 1983 212 3.085 0.202 0.938 4.270 0.046 0.606 23 685341 1604 1983 380 2.871 0.198 0.256 3.005 0.051 0.560 24 685342 1581 1983 403 2.754 0.227 0.300 2.994 0.048 0.723 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1581 TO 1983 403 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 279 2.939 0.207 0.488 4.206 0.050 0.547 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.298 0.053 0.473 2.127 0.005 0.138 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 2.871 0.205 0.363 3.373 0.049 0.535 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 128 0.359 0.039 0.416 1.277 0.007 0.207 MINIMUM VALUE 162 2.562 0.125 -0.093 2.592 0.041 0.277 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 208 2.738 0.178 0.199 2.999 0.046 0.450 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 3.097 0.216 0.615 4.276 0.053 0.657 MAXIMUM VALUE 403 3.609 0.413 1.727 11.152 0.063 0.773 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.378 0.151 0.009 -0.561 3.408 -0.178 0.710 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.178 SERIES 685211 AND 685262 203 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.710 SERIES 685212 AND 685342 300 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.69 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 1. 10. 36. 66. 91. 105. 105. 190. 253. 276. RBAR 0.593 0.457 0.226 0.333 0.420 0.342 0.297 0.303 0.453 0.482 SDEV 0.000 0.190 0.292 0.202 0.179 0.187 0.217 0.202 0.163 0.171 SERR 0.000 0.060 0.049 0.025 0.019 0.018 0.021 0.015 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.886 0.875 0.774 0.875 0.914 0.898 0.896 0.909 0.952 0.957 NSS 5.3 8.3 11.7 14.1 14.7 16.9 20.5 22.9 23.9 24.0 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.504 0.439 0.417 SDEV 0.189 0.190 0.194 SERR 0.011 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.961 0.949 0.945 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 2.931 0.143 0.126 3.241 0.039 0.461 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.047 0.035 0.179 139 264 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 1.25 1.00 1.07 2.32 14.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 294. 125. 162. 211. 336. 403. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.460 0.385 0.328 0.351 0.344 0.350 0.302 0.289 0.261 0.212 PACF 0.460 0.219 0.118 0.161 0.119 0.114 0.036 0.042 0.013 -0.041 95% C.L. 0.100 0.119 0.131 0.139 0.147 0.155 0.163 0.168 0.173 0.177 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.313 0.280 0.127 0.031 0.110 0.099 0.121 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 685211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00127090 2.94991159 2 685212 1 0.67239094 0.00763048 0.00000000 2.46803784 3 685231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00060878 2.61992311 4 685232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00103045 2.72780919 5 685241 1 0.42594385 0.00806960 0.00000000 2.70776653 6 685242 1 0.33274347 0.02965313 0.00000000 2.76887178 7 685251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00031827 2.63311458 8 685252 1 0.04136942 0.02192188 0.00000000 2.55356097 9 685261 1 0.10280742 0.02017188 0.00000000 2.74284697 10 685262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00109654 2.57516170 11 685271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00099728 3.25467539 12 685272 1 0.16217189 0.01080623 0.00000000 3.12587118 13 685281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00056069 3.36681771 14 685282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00083664 3.75706553 15 685291 1 0.21176629 0.00609043 0.00000000 2.83663893 16 685292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00033645 2.83017874 17 685301 1 0.47126630 0.01580819 0.00000000 3.41249251 18 685302 1 1.48504579 0.02998670 0.00000000 3.28575182 19 685311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00064422 2.92406654 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 685321 1 0.26368660 0.01218324 0.00000000 2.97944117 21 685322 1 0.45207852 0.00789903 0.00000000 2.73926520 22 685332 1 0.75571978 0.07151053 0.00000000 3.03648782 23 685341 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00043417 2.95378757 24 685342 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00092926 2.94220185 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.062 0.298 4.261 0.042 0.657 2 685212 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.063 0.440 3.298 0.047 0.531 3 685231 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.067 0.461 3.250 0.053 0.503 4 685232 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.070 0.686 3.629 0.055 0.507 5 685241 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.059 0.055 3.042 0.043 0.573 6 685242 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.057 -0.050 3.211 0.055 0.272 7 685251 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.051 0.291 3.045 0.042 0.449 8 685252 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.049 0.137 4.330 0.041 0.357 9 685261 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.064 0.013 2.858 0.063 0.258 10 685262 1769 1971 203 1.000 0.064 0.155 3.346 0.053 0.436 11 685271 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.064 0.662 3.544 0.046 0.511 12 685272 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.065 1.133 8.654 0.054 0.369 13 685281 1651 1983 333 1.000 0.062 0.285 3.763 0.051 0.395 14 685282 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.055 0.595 5.901 0.045 0.363 15 685291 1618 1983 366 1.000 0.084 1.066 6.877 0.049 0.651 16 685292 1645 1983 339 1.000 0.060 0.414 3.366 0.049 0.486 17 685301 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.057 0.242 3.439 0.052 0.329 18 685302 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.073 0.500 3.603 0.058 0.457 19 685311 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.058 0.114 3.040 0.051 0.374 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 1.000 0.065 0.475 3.441 0.048 0.522 21 685322 1653 1983 331 1.000 0.060 0.397 4.036 0.047 0.492 22 685332 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.052 0.570 4.001 0.046 0.386 23 685341 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.067 0.397 3.356 0.050 0.529 24 685342 1581 1983 403 1.000 0.072 0.200 3.124 0.048 0.646 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 279 1.000 0.063 0.397 3.934 0.049 0.460 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.000 0.008 0.295 1.360 0.005 0.111 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 1.000 0.063 0.397 3.440 0.049 0.472 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.000 0.008 0.357 0.788 0.006 0.154 MINIMUM VALUE 162 1.000 0.049 -0.050 2.858 0.041 0.258 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.058 0.178 3.230 0.046 0.371 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 1.000 0.066 0.535 4.018 0.053 0.526 MAXIMUM VALUE 403 1.000 0.084 1.133 8.654 0.063 0.657 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 685211 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 685212 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 685231 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 685232 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 685241 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 685242 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 685251 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 685252 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 685261 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 685262 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 685271 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 685272 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 685281 -67 223 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 685282 -67 236 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 685291 -67 245 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 685292 -67 227 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 685301 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 685302 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 685311 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 685321 -67 238 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 685322 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 685332 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 685341 -67 254 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 685342 -67 270 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.052 0.032 4.270 0.042 0.507 2 685212 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.059 0.466 3.376 0.047 0.466 3 685231 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.061 0.421 3.474 0.053 0.409 4 685232 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.064 0.649 3.646 0.054 0.400 5 685241 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.055 0.118 3.018 0.043 0.519 6 685242 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.055 0.014 3.054 0.055 0.214 7 685251 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.048 0.101 2.784 0.042 0.390 8 685252 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.045 -0.028 4.224 0.041 0.282 9 685261 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.060 0.076 2.906 0.063 0.147 10 685262 1769 1971 203 1.000 0.059 0.060 3.159 0.053 0.356 11 685271 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.059 0.570 3.791 0.046 0.425 12 685272 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.063 1.267 9.675 0.054 0.331 13 685281 1651 1983 333 1.000 0.059 0.290 3.910 0.051 0.342 14 685282 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.054 0.655 5.888 0.045 0.331 15 685291 1618 1983 366 1.000 0.080 1.240 8.166 0.049 0.619 16 685292 1645 1983 339 1.000 0.058 0.467 3.545 0.049 0.440 17 685301 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.054 0.328 3.981 0.052 0.245 18 685302 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.064 0.509 3.773 0.058 0.301 19 685311 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.053 0.119 3.137 0.051 0.263 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 1.000 0.062 0.574 3.854 0.048 0.459 21 685322 1653 1983 331 1.000 0.057 0.428 3.994 0.047 0.427 22 685332 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.048 0.587 4.001 0.046 0.288 23 685341 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.061 0.146 3.005 0.050 0.445 24 685342 1581 1983 403 1.000 0.068 0.182 3.298 0.048 0.594 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 279 1.000 0.058 0.386 4.080 0.049 0.383 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.000 0.007 0.347 1.638 0.005 0.116 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 1.000 0.059 0.375 3.709 0.049 0.395 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.000 0.008 0.462 0.850 0.007 0.158 MINIMUM VALUE 162 1.000 0.045 -0.028 2.784 0.041 0.147 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.054 0.110 3.148 0.046 0.294 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 1.000 0.062 0.572 3.998 0.053 0.452 MAXIMUM VALUE 403 1.000 0.080 1.267 9.675 0.063 0.619 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.407 0.093 0.006 0.198 3.014 0.178 0.678 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.178 SERIES 685231 AND 685271 188 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.678 SERIES 685281 AND 685282 333 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.69 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 1. 10. 36. 66. 91. 105. 105. 190. 253. 276. RBAR 0.614 0.467 0.276 0.315 0.407 0.370 0.321 0.317 0.467 0.507 SDEV 0.000 0.194 0.231 0.194 0.178 0.158 0.173 0.190 0.160 0.145 SERR 0.000 0.061 0.038 0.024 0.019 0.015 0.017 0.014 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.894 0.879 0.818 0.866 0.910 0.909 0.906 0.914 0.954 0.961 NSS 5.3 8.3 11.7 14.1 14.7 16.9 20.5 22.9 23.9 24.0 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.509 0.446 0.437 SDEV 0.158 0.181 0.179 SERR 0.010 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.961 0.951 0.949 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 0.999 0.044 0.378 3.426 0.040 0.328 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.059 0.025 0.017 108 295 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.76 1.00 1.05 1.81 5.71 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.327 0.204 0.137 0.165 0.139 0.176 0.133 0.071 0.033 0.000 PACF 0.327 0.108 0.048 0.103 0.050 0.101 0.028 -0.027 -0.029 -0.048 95% C.L. 0.100 0.110 0.113 0.115 0.117 0.119 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.124 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.125 0.297 0.113 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.236 0.069 0.035 0.049 0.016 0.097 0.078 0.064 0.021 -0.020 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.236 2 0.232 0.014 3 0.232 0.010 0.017 4 0.231 0.010 0.008 0.038 5 0.232 0.010 0.008 0.040 -0.005 6 0.232 0.006 0.007 0.039 -0.027 0.096 7 0.229 0.007 0.006 0.038 -0.028 0.088 0.036 8 0.227 0.004 0.007 0.037 -0.028 0.088 0.028 0.032 9 0.228 0.005 0.007 0.037 -0.028 0.088 0.028 0.034 -0.007 10 0.227 0.006 0.008 0.040 -0.029 0.089 0.029 0.034 0.002 -0.037 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2135.72 2114.70 2116.62 2118.51 2119.91 2121.90 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2120.14 2121.63 2123.21 2125.20 2126.63 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.236 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.55 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 105.88 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.236 0.056 0.013 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 685211 1 0.283 0.509 2 685212 1 0.279 0.476 3 685231 1 0.172 0.410 4 685232 1 0.188 0.405 5 685241 1 0.295 0.522 6 685242 1 0.096 0.216 7 685251 1 0.160 0.399 8 685252 1 0.094 0.295 9 685261 1 0.031 0.147 10 685262 1 0.154 0.360 11 685271 1 0.215 0.428 12 685272 1 0.140 0.365 13 685281 1 0.119 0.346 14 685282 1 0.114 0.335 15 685291 1 0.456 0.658 16 685292 1 0.230 0.442 17 685301 1 0.062 0.245 18 685302 1 0.116 0.304 19 685311 1 0.071 0.265 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 685321 1 0.233 0.471 21 685322 1 0.204 0.428 22 685332 1 0.096 0.289 23 685341 1 0.211 0.449 24 685342 1 0.401 0.601 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.184 0.390 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.104 0.120 MEDIAN 1 0.166 0.402 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.127 0.160 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.031 0.147 LOWER HINGE 1 0.105 0.300 UPPER HINGE 1 0.232 0.460 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.456 0.658 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.045 0.142 3.473 0.053 -0.089 2 685212 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.052 0.526 3.076 0.060 -0.112 3 685231 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.056 0.374 3.306 0.063 -0.026 4 685232 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.058 0.604 3.106 0.067 -0.064 5 685241 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.047 0.210 2.812 0.057 -0.090 6 685242 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.054 0.093 3.092 0.062 -0.049 7 685251 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.044 0.194 2.709 0.050 -0.006 8 685252 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.043 0.123 4.001 0.047 -0.015 9 685261 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.059 0.075 3.050 0.068 -0.014 10 685262 1769 1971 203 1.000 0.055 0.037 3.631 0.064 -0.055 11 685271 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.053 0.722 5.321 0.058 -0.083 12 685272 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.058 1.021 8.000 0.064 -0.065 13 685281 1651 1983 333 1.000 0.056 0.462 4.369 0.059 -0.002 14 685282 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.051 1.050 8.592 0.052 -0.013 15 685291 1618 1983 366 1.000 0.059 0.617 4.845 0.071 -0.163 16 685292 1645 1983 339 1.000 0.052 0.315 3.269 0.060 -0.092 17 685301 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.052 0.335 3.804 0.057 0.012 18 685302 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.061 0.508 3.604 0.069 -0.046 19 685311 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.051 0.143 3.286 0.057 0.007 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 1.000 0.054 0.635 4.329 0.060 -0.068 21 685322 1653 1983 331 1.000 0.051 0.420 3.799 0.058 -0.067 22 685332 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.046 0.476 3.434 0.053 -0.035 23 685341 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.055 0.308 3.495 0.062 -0.049 24 685342 1581 1983 403 1.000 0.054 0.300 2.944 0.064 -0.156 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 279 1.000 0.053 0.404 3.973 0.060 -0.056 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.000 0.005 0.275 1.476 0.006 0.047 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 1.000 0.054 0.354 3.484 0.060 -0.052 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.000 0.005 0.396 1.066 0.007 0.071 MINIMUM VALUE 162 1.000 0.043 0.037 2.709 0.047 -0.163 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.051 0.169 3.099 0.057 -0.086 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 1.000 0.056 0.565 4.165 0.064 -0.015 MAXIMUM VALUE 403 1.000 0.061 1.050 8.592 0.071 0.012 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.472 0.082 0.005 0.174 2.877 0.292 0.704 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.292 SERIES 685252 AND 685342 182 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.704 SERIES 685281 AND 685282 333 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.69 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 1. 10. 36. 66. 91. 105. 105. 190. 253. 276. RBAR 0.715 0.474 0.385 0.432 0.451 0.422 0.417 0.401 0.510 0.536 SDEV 0.000 0.124 0.141 0.127 0.142 0.128 0.117 0.138 0.123 0.114 SERR 0.000 0.039 0.023 0.016 0.015 0.012 0.011 0.010 0.008 0.007 EPS 0.930 0.882 0.880 0.915 0.923 0.925 0.936 0.939 0.961 0.965 NSS 5.3 8.3 11.7 14.1 14.7 16.9 20.5 22.9 23.9 24.0 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.520 0.519 0.507 SDEV 0.117 0.143 0.167 SERR 0.007 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.963 0.963 0.961 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 0.999 0.040 0.404 3.000 0.048 -0.169 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.059 0.021 0.013 111 292 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.56 1.00 1.08 1.63 20.56 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.169 0.052 -0.032 0.064 0.020 0.086 0.051 -0.001 -0.005 -0.015 PACF -0.169 0.024 -0.020 0.056 0.042 0.095 0.084 0.014 -0.008 -0.029 95% C.L. 0.100 0.102 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.030 -0.170 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.005 0.019 -0.014 0.065 0.048 0.104 0.068 0.006 -0.007 -0.023 PACF 0.005 0.019 -0.014 0.065 0.048 0.101 0.070 0.001 -0.012 -0.037 95% C.L. 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.101 0.102 0.102 0.102 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 0.999 0.041 0.299 3.225 0.040 0.243 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.242 0.075 0.024 0.085 0.091 0.132 0.095 0.026 -0.007 -0.032 PACF 0.242 0.017 0.002 0.083 0.056 0.098 0.041 -0.019 -0.023 -0.047 95% C.L. 0.100 0.105 0.106 0.106 0.107 0.107 0.109 0.110 0.110 0.110 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.061 0.245 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.26 MINUTES