RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: UT511L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: UT511L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 685 1 Ceader Breaks WIDTH_LATE PCEN - 685 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3120 3735-11351 1581 1983 685 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 685211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1870 1874 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 685212 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1958 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 685241 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1969 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 685262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1880 1882 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 685271 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 1 GAPS / 1969 1977 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 685282 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1927 1932 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 685301 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1873 1878 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 685311 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 16 IN 3 GAPS / 1893 1897 / 1927 1932 / 1942 1946 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 685321 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 17 IN 3 GAPS / 1807 1811 / 1842 1846 / 1926 1932 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 685341 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 12 IN 2 GAPS / 1858 1863 / 1947 1952 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 685342 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1794 1798 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 0.121 0.052 1.760 6.459 0.198 0.633 2 685212 1684 1983 300 0.142 0.088 2.312 9.051 0.188 0.794 3 685231 1796 1983 188 0.217 0.152 2.269 11.118 0.295 0.580 4 685232 1822 1983 162 0.208 0.132 1.890 7.576 0.284 0.634 5 685241 1693 1983 291 0.115 0.044 1.329 5.310 0.188 0.703 6 685242 1688 1983 296 0.126 0.089 3.606 18.944 0.206 0.781 7 685251 1796 1983 188 0.189 0.129 3.841 23.727 0.314 0.471 8 685252 1802 1983 182 0.195 0.091 2.911 16.565 0.266 0.324 9 685261 1774 1983 210 0.208 0.079 2.496 13.958 0.212 0.503 10 685262 1769 1971 203 0.167 0.078 0.941 3.111 0.220 0.718 11 685271 1693 1983 291 0.112 0.050 0.881 2.987 0.161 0.845 12 685272 1766 1983 218 0.131 0.105 2.301 7.622 0.203 0.858 13 685281 1651 1983 333 0.139 0.047 1.844 9.372 0.196 0.579 14 685282 1631 1983 353 0.104 0.039 1.599 6.417 0.205 0.668 15 685291 1618 1983 366 0.111 0.062 3.656 22.302 0.221 0.606 16 685292 1645 1983 339 0.102 0.038 1.622 5.489 0.206 0.668 17 685301 1772 1983 212 0.179 0.102 4.101 29.988 0.262 0.541 18 685302 1730 1983 254 0.187 0.079 1.699 8.283 0.214 0.605 19 685311 1680 1983 304 0.104 0.054 2.188 11.904 0.233 0.568 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 0.110 0.053 2.370 11.981 0.233 0.669 21 685322 1653 1983 331 0.127 0.051 1.137 4.322 0.175 0.779 22 685332 1772 1983 212 0.128 0.063 2.901 16.946 0.256 0.364 23 685341 1604 1983 380 0.128 0.117 6.604 71.936 0.236 0.485 24 685342 1581 1983 403 0.126 0.079 2.471 10.959 0.193 0.758 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1581 TO 1983 403 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 275 0.145 0.078 2.447 14.014 0.224 0.631 STANDARD DEVIATION 70 0.038 0.032 1.253 14.139 0.039 0.140 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 287 0.128 0.078 2.285 10.165 0.213 0.633 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 128 0.070 0.045 1.245 10.318 0.049 0.184 MINIMUM VALUE 162 0.102 0.038 0.881 2.987 0.161 0.324 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 208 0.113 0.051 1.661 6.438 0.197 0.555 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 0.183 0.097 2.906 16.756 0.246 0.738 MAXIMUM VALUE 398 0.217 0.152 6.604 71.936 0.314 0.858 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.334 0.210 0.013 -0.472 2.683 -0.269 0.741 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.269 SERIES 685231 AND 685342 188 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.741 SERIES 685212 AND 685242 296 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.69 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 1. 10. 36. 66. 91. 105. 105. 190. 253. 276. RBAR 0.705 0.424 0.185 0.314 0.293 0.357 0.221 0.199 0.324 0.213 SDEV 0.000 0.211 0.244 0.211 0.184 0.225 0.201 0.194 0.181 0.192 SERR 0.000 0.067 0.041 0.026 0.019 0.022 0.020 0.014 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.927 0.860 0.727 0.866 0.859 0.904 0.853 0.850 0.920 0.866 NSS 5.3 8.3 11.7 14.1 14.7 16.9 20.5 22.9 23.9 24.0 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.229 0.273 0.212 SDEV 0.252 0.249 0.224 SERR 0.015 0.015 0.013 EPS 0.877 0.900 0.866 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 0.146 0.078 5.094 47.577 0.149 0.645 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.488 0.292 0.005 228 175 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.34 2.39 1.00 1.44 3.83 29.95 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.16 0.00 0.83 0.99 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 294. 125. 162. 211. 336. 403. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.643 0.567 0.520 0.500 0.601 0.539 0.488 0.499 0.423 0.430 PACF 0.643 0.262 0.150 0.129 0.324 0.044 -0.008 0.106 -0.065 -0.024 95% C.L. 0.100 0.135 0.157 0.173 0.187 0.205 0.219 0.229 0.240 0.247 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.550 0.347 0.129 0.052 0.008 0.344 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 685211 1 0.17311443 0.02663713 0.00000000 0.10017015 2 685212 1 0.31406629 0.01997884 0.00000000 0.08986946 3 685231 1 0.36150494 0.01045139 0.00000000 0.06008732 4 685232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00160137 0.33810446 5 685241 1 0.12810548 0.00816893 0.00000000 0.06523598 6 685242 1 0.52650803 0.06409176 0.00000000 0.09914032 7 685251 1 0.32557198 0.00982766 0.00000000 0.04156331 8 685252 1 0.18011723 0.02399398 0.00000000 0.15526168 9 685261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00068546 0.28026885 10 685262 1 0.27043650 0.00841267 0.00000000 0.03639447 11 685271 1 0.16365197 0.00805976 0.00000000 0.04752896 12 685272 1 0.44670787 0.03604027 0.00000000 0.07537786 13 685281 1 0.07574816 0.00394923 0.00000000 0.09672067 14 685282 1 0.07721748 0.00555372 0.00000000 0.07014469 15 685291 1 0.14775816 0.02427372 0.00000000 0.09444670 16 685292 1 0.14758635 0.04433527 0.00000000 0.09210753 17 685301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005432 0.17305939 18 685302 1 0.17779957 0.00735677 0.00000000 0.10711404 19 685311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00042956 0.16721635 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 685321 1 0.12461034 0.00802339 0.00000000 0.06816065 21 685322 1 0.14874908 0.00677554 0.00000000 0.06769033 22 685332 1 0.12397579 0.05105564 0.00000000 0.11676087 23 685341 1 0.30527031 0.01270115 0.00000000 0.06284591 24 685342 1 0.27000409 0.01420889 0.00000000 0.07868437 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.317 2.318 11.524 0.196 0.363 2 685212 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.324 6.130 68.416 0.187 0.209 3 685231 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.738 5.583 40.835 0.293 0.391 4 685232 1822 1983 162 1.005 0.503 1.950 7.240 0.283 0.515 5 685241 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.253 1.596 8.729 0.188 0.392 6 685242 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.336 2.019 8.892 0.206 0.508 7 685251 1796 1983 188 1.003 0.439 3.513 21.930 0.312 0.209 8 685252 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.385 2.478 11.928 0.265 0.159 9 685261 1774 1983 210 1.001 0.322 3.744 23.998 0.211 0.288 10 685262 1769 1971 203 1.002 0.279 1.160 5.753 0.225 0.276 11 685271 1693 1983 291 1.001 0.251 0.858 4.580 0.162 0.536 12 685272 1766 1983 218 1.001 0.309 2.944 19.354 0.203 0.370 13 685281 1651 1983 333 1.000 0.319 1.996 10.101 0.195 0.499 14 685282 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.312 1.336 5.703 0.204 0.555 15 685291 1618 1983 366 1.000 0.454 3.717 26.246 0.221 0.579 16 685292 1645 1983 339 1.000 0.296 1.943 8.407 0.205 0.481 17 685301 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.558 4.073 29.974 0.263 0.532 18 685302 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.373 3.832 30.865 0.213 0.390 19 685311 1680 1983 304 1.017 0.371 2.200 10.324 0.231 0.409 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 1.000 0.370 2.898 18.412 0.234 0.474 21 685322 1653 1983 331 1.000 0.269 1.314 6.554 0.174 0.520 22 685332 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.491 4.034 27.155 0.255 0.276 23 685341 1604 1983 380 1.001 0.405 3.852 32.222 0.235 0.311 24 685342 1581 1983 403 1.000 0.315 2.665 16.224 0.191 0.392 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 279 1.001 0.375 2.840 18.974 0.223 0.401 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.003 0.112 1.352 14.669 0.038 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 1.000 0.330 2.571 14.076 0.212 0.392 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.001 0.112 1.842 18.132 0.049 0.212 MINIMUM VALUE 162 1.000 0.251 0.858 4.580 0.162 0.159 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.311 1.947 8.568 0.196 0.299 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 1.001 0.422 3.788 26.700 0.245 0.511 MAXIMUM VALUE 403 1.017 0.738 6.130 68.416 0.312 0.579 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 685211 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 685212 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 685231 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 685232 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 685241 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 685242 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 685251 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 685252 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 685261 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 685262 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 685271 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 685272 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 685281 -67 223 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 685282 -67 236 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 685291 -67 245 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 685292 -67 227 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 685301 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 685302 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 685311 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 685321 -67 238 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 685322 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 685332 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 685341 -67 254 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 685342 -67 270 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 0.997 0.276 3.134 19.796 0.197 0.169 2 685212 1684 1983 300 0.999 0.298 5.014 50.523 0.187 0.180 3 685231 1796 1983 188 0.992 0.667 5.058 34.333 0.293 0.352 4 685232 1822 1983 162 0.997 0.489 2.025 7.794 0.283 0.487 5 685241 1693 1983 291 0.998 0.239 1.554 8.381 0.188 0.334 6 685242 1688 1983 296 0.998 0.280 2.074 9.320 0.207 0.294 7 685251 1796 1983 188 0.996 0.414 3.320 20.076 0.312 0.166 8 685252 1802 1983 182 0.999 0.384 2.732 13.736 0.264 0.130 9 685261 1774 1983 210 0.999 0.317 3.823 24.881 0.211 0.273 10 685262 1769 1971 203 0.998 0.259 1.276 6.296 0.224 0.176 11 685271 1693 1983 291 0.996 0.221 0.852 4.317 0.163 0.438 12 685272 1766 1983 218 0.999 0.308 3.420 24.242 0.203 0.348 13 685281 1651 1983 333 0.996 0.287 2.123 11.121 0.196 0.399 14 685282 1631 1983 353 0.998 0.297 1.132 4.861 0.204 0.522 15 685291 1618 1983 366 0.999 0.450 3.830 27.290 0.221 0.570 16 685292 1645 1983 339 0.999 0.267 1.707 7.473 0.206 0.392 17 685301 1772 1983 212 0.990 0.417 3.590 24.101 0.263 0.359 18 685302 1730 1983 254 0.996 0.346 3.455 26.325 0.213 0.359 19 685311 1680 1983 304 0.997 0.332 2.685 14.467 0.231 0.255 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 0.998 0.356 2.787 16.624 0.234 0.433 21 685322 1653 1983 331 0.997 0.246 1.322 6.962 0.174 0.436 22 685332 1772 1983 212 0.994 0.424 3.910 24.031 0.255 0.187 23 685341 1604 1983 380 0.998 0.387 4.128 36.128 0.235 0.251 24 685342 1581 1983 403 0.998 0.302 2.856 18.325 0.191 0.350 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 279 0.997 0.344 2.825 18.392 0.223 0.327 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.002 0.099 1.186 11.523 0.038 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 0.998 0.313 2.821 17.474 0.212 0.349 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.002 0.122 1.841 16.474 0.049 0.197 MINIMUM VALUE 162 0.990 0.221 0.852 4.317 0.163 0.130 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 0.996 0.278 1.866 8.087 0.196 0.219 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 0.999 0.400 3.707 24.561 0.245 0.416 MAXIMUM VALUE 403 0.999 0.667 5.058 50.523 0.312 0.570 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.215 0.135 0.008 0.335 4.161 -0.171 0.743 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.171 SERIES 685231 AND 685291 188 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.743 SERIES 685301 AND 685302 212 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.69 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 1. 10. 36. 66. 91. 105. 105. 190. 253. 276. RBAR 0.651 0.363 0.185 0.246 0.317 0.264 0.165 0.208 0.271 0.226 SDEV 0.000 0.166 0.204 0.198 0.172 0.211 0.195 0.188 0.178 0.175 SERR 0.000 0.052 0.034 0.024 0.018 0.021 0.019 0.014 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.908 0.826 0.727 0.822 0.872 0.858 0.801 0.858 0.899 0.875 NSS 5.3 8.3 11.7 14.1 14.7 16.9 20.5 22.9 23.9 24.0 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.253 0.274 0.208 SDEV 0.242 0.254 0.225 SERR 0.015 0.015 0.014 EPS 0.891 0.900 0.863 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 0.969 0.215 3.817 30.939 0.147 0.245 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.704 0.476 -0.251 170 233 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.47 1.37 1.00 1.14 2.51 44.22 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.10 0.00 0.86 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.245 0.166 0.120 -0.003 0.146 0.011 -0.058 0.006 -0.104 -0.064 PACF 0.245 0.113 0.060 -0.064 0.149 -0.054 -0.085 0.018 -0.082 -0.041 95% C.L. 0.100 0.105 0.108 0.109 0.109 0.111 0.111 0.112 0.112 0.112 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.075 0.217 0.113 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.355 0.250 0.161 0.128 0.122 0.049 -0.046 0.005 -0.031 -0.055 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.355 2 0.305 0.141 3 0.299 0.129 0.040 4 0.298 0.124 0.028 0.039 5 0.296 0.123 0.022 0.025 0.050 6 0.298 0.123 0.023 0.029 0.061 -0.035 7 0.294 0.130 0.026 0.031 0.073 -0.005 -0.101 8 0.298 0.130 0.023 0.030 0.072 -0.010 -0.111 0.036 9 0.299 0.127 0.023 0.032 0.073 -0.009 -0.108 0.044 -0.028 10 0.298 0.129 0.018 0.032 0.076 -0.008 -0.107 0.050 -0.014 -0.045 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3315.90 3263.50 3257.37 3258.72 3260.09 3261.08 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3262.57 3260.45 3261.92 3263.61 3264.78 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.305 0.141 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 14.37 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 116.79 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.305 0.234 0.115 0.068 0.037 0.021 0.012 0.006 0.004 0.0020 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 685211 2 0.037 0.154 0.087 2 685212 2 0.075 0.144 0.203 3 685231 2 0.170 0.329 0.068 4 685232 2 0.238 0.485 0.005 5 685241 2 0.141 0.291 0.129 6 685242 2 0.112 0.270 0.083 7 685251 2 0.031 0.157 0.056 8 685252 2 0.039 0.111 0.149 9 685261 2 0.096 0.238 0.128 10 685262 2 0.061 0.146 0.176 11 685271 2 0.219 0.378 0.141 12 685272 2 0.122 0.358 -0.029 13 685281 2 0.173 0.351 0.120 14 685282 2 0.309 0.420 0.196 15 685291 2 0.332 0.567 0.016 16 685292 2 0.162 0.365 0.069 17 685301 2 0.165 0.294 0.182 18 685302 2 0.160 0.298 0.174 19 685311 2 0.080 0.228 0.110 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 685321 2 0.203 0.391 0.110 21 685322 2 0.250 0.329 0.249 22 685332 2 0.052 0.167 0.111 23 685341 2 0.096 0.211 0.162 24 685342 2 0.168 0.284 0.190 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.146 0.290 0.120 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.084 0.115 0.068 MEDIAN 2 0.150 0.293 0.124 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.111 0.173 0.099 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.031 0.111 -0.029 LOWER HINGE 2 0.077 0.189 0.076 UPPER HINGE 2 0.188 0.362 0.175 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.332 0.567 0.249 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.271 3.133 19.891 0.216 -0.003 2 685212 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.287 5.365 55.664 0.203 -0.010 3 685231 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.623 6.140 47.066 0.339 -0.013 4 685232 1822 1983 162 1.001 0.424 2.013 8.810 0.368 0.011 5 685241 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.223 1.620 8.851 0.219 -0.017 6 685242 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.267 1.935 8.834 0.247 -0.012 7 685251 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.408 3.349 20.128 0.336 -0.001 8 685252 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.376 2.944 15.467 0.278 0.003 9 685261 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.303 3.880 25.279 0.240 -0.011 10 685262 1769 1971 203 1.000 0.251 1.307 6.856 0.243 0.001 11 685271 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.197 0.773 4.431 0.200 -0.014 12 685272 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.288 3.484 25.238 0.246 0.000 13 685281 1651 1983 333 1.000 0.261 2.472 14.283 0.234 -0.005 14 685282 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.248 0.889 5.313 0.260 -0.022 15 685291 1618 1983 366 1.000 0.367 3.196 21.420 0.311 -0.004 16 685292 1645 1983 339 1.000 0.245 1.552 6.923 0.246 -0.005 17 685301 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.383 3.520 22.311 0.304 -0.016 18 685302 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.318 3.838 29.921 0.251 -0.010 19 685311 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.319 2.835 17.101 0.263 -0.007 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 1.000 0.317 2.584 16.054 0.289 -0.009 21 685322 1653 1983 331 1.000 0.214 1.145 6.454 0.213 -0.025 22 685332 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.414 3.932 24.038 0.284 -0.008 23 685341 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.369 4.950 46.401 0.262 -0.016 24 685342 1581 1983 403 1.000 0.278 3.240 22.950 0.226 -0.024 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 279 1.000 0.319 2.921 19.987 0.262 -0.009 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.000 0.092 1.391 13.712 0.045 0.009 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 1.000 0.296 3.039 18.496 0.249 -0.009 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.000 0.117 1.901 15.816 0.057 0.012 MINIMUM VALUE 162 1.000 0.197 0.773 4.431 0.200 -0.025 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.256 1.778 8.822 0.230 -0.015 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 1.000 0.373 3.679 24.638 0.287 -0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 403 1.001 0.623 6.140 55.664 0.368 0.011 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.209 0.122 0.007 0.906 5.314 -0.092 0.753 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.092 SERIES 685231 AND 685292 188 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.753 SERIES 685301 AND 685302 212 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.69 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 1. 10. 36. 66. 91. 105. 105. 190. 253. 276. RBAR 0.688 0.451 0.204 0.258 0.280 0.234 0.163 0.192 0.266 0.237 SDEV 0.000 0.164 0.156 0.176 0.149 0.162 0.149 0.182 0.165 0.160 SERR 0.000 0.052 0.026 0.022 0.016 0.016 0.015 0.013 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.921 0.872 0.751 0.830 0.851 0.838 0.799 0.845 0.897 0.882 NSS 5.3 8.3 11.7 14.1 14.7 16.9 20.5 22.9 23.9 24.0 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.212 0.216 0.185 SDEV 0.210 0.228 0.218 SERR 0.013 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.866 0.869 0.845 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 0.976 0.213 4.524 41.075 0.174 -0.087 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.626 0.410 -0.212 177 226 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.50 1.18 1.00 1.13 2.32 25.73 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.087 -0.084 0.038 -0.106 0.139 -0.001 -0.075 0.066 -0.079 -0.047 PACF -0.087 -0.092 0.023 -0.110 0.129 0.001 -0.046 0.040 -0.058 -0.065 95% C.L. 0.100 0.100 0.101 0.101 0.102 0.104 0.104 0.105 0.105 0.106 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.016 -0.095 -0.092 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 -0.008 0.025 -0.099 0.129 0.002 -0.065 0.048 -0.087 -0.057 PACF 0.002 -0.008 0.025 -0.099 0.132 -0.004 -0.059 0.035 -0.065 -0.070 95% C.L. 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.101 0.102 0.102 0.103 0.103 0.104 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 0.002 -0.008 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 0.976 0.228 3.506 27.093 0.141 0.357 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.356 0.240 0.140 0.018 0.120 0.019 -0.049 -0.014 -0.115 -0.111 PACF 0.356 0.129 0.023 -0.073 0.131 -0.054 -0.085 0.016 -0.090 -0.067 95% C.L. 0.100 0.112 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.121 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.142 0.311 0.129 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.26 MINUTES