RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: UT511N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: UT511N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 685 1 Ceader Breaks DENSITY_MINIMUM PCEN - 685 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3120 3735-11351 1581 1983 685 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 685211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1848 1852 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 685212 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1824 1828 / 1914 1918 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 685241 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 2 GAPS / 1730 1734 / 1839 1844 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 685242 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1757 1761 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 685251 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1893 1898 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 685252 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1871 1875 / 1891 1895 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 685262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 15 IN 2 GAPS / 1880 1882 / 1888 1899 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 685271 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 26 IN 5 GAPS / 1739 1743 / 1760 1764 / 1772 1776 / 1824 1829 / / 1921 1925 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 685281 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1756 1761 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 685282 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 17 IN 3 GAPS / 1663 1669 / 1765 1769 / 1776 1780 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 685291 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1644 1648 / 1687 1691 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 685292 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1775 1779 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 685301 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1873 1878 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 685302 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1796 1801 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 685311 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1779 1783 / 1799 1803 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 685321 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 2 GAPS / 1670 1675 / 1941 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 685322 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1669 1673 / 1687 1691 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 685332 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 15 IN 3 GAPS / 1772 1776 / 1819 1823 / 1896 1900 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 685342 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 15 IN 3 GAPS / 1744 1748 / 1837 1841 / 1944 1948 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 0.248 0.019 0.032 3.213 0.049 0.602 2 685212 1684 1983 300 0.245 0.022 0.228 2.877 0.052 0.708 3 685231 1796 1983 188 0.212 0.016 0.508 3.147 0.065 0.411 4 685232 1822 1983 162 0.224 0.017 0.461 3.268 0.058 0.547 5 685241 1693 1983 291 0.247 0.017 0.322 3.576 0.050 0.536 6 685242 1688 1983 296 0.242 0.016 0.191 2.959 0.062 0.251 7 685251 1796 1983 188 0.226 0.016 -1.881 17.906 0.047 0.360 8 685252 1802 1983 182 0.218 0.013 -0.106 3.366 0.049 0.412 9 685261 1774 1983 210 0.238 0.018 0.226 2.561 0.067 0.355 10 685262 1769 1971 203 0.229 0.020 0.314 2.961 0.059 0.618 11 685271 1693 1983 291 0.275 0.018 0.143 2.964 0.053 0.459 12 685272 1766 1983 218 0.277 0.020 1.630 10.897 0.058 0.391 13 685281 1651 1983 333 0.286 0.020 0.432 3.604 0.058 0.377 14 685282 1631 1983 353 0.314 0.022 1.410 9.039 0.053 0.431 15 685291 1618 1983 366 0.255 0.022 1.247 7.973 0.052 0.642 16 685292 1645 1983 339 0.252 0.017 0.281 3.380 0.051 0.531 17 685301 1772 1983 212 0.309 0.022 0.271 3.187 0.053 0.548 18 685302 1730 1983 254 0.305 0.040 1.836 7.867 0.062 0.779 19 685311 1680 1983 304 0.244 0.016 0.036 3.029 0.054 0.416 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 0.263 0.019 0.273 3.700 0.060 0.397 21 685322 1653 1983 331 0.254 0.018 0.043 3.109 0.055 0.482 22 685332 1772 1983 212 0.264 0.016 0.565 4.126 0.048 0.473 23 685341 1604 1983 380 0.246 0.020 0.104 3.476 0.060 0.510 24 685342 1581 1983 403 0.236 0.021 0.397 3.042 0.063 0.588 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1581 TO 1983 403 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 271 0.255 0.019 0.373 4.801 0.056 0.493 STANDARD DEVIATION 70 0.028 0.005 0.707 3.581 0.006 0.123 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 285 0.247 0.018 0.277 3.317 0.055 0.477 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 129 0.033 0.004 0.361 0.877 0.009 0.164 MINIMUM VALUE 162 0.212 0.013 -1.881 2.561 0.047 0.251 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 201 0.237 0.017 0.124 3.036 0.051 0.404 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 330 0.270 0.021 0.485 3.913 0.060 0.568 MAXIMUM VALUE 388 0.314 0.040 1.836 17.906 0.067 0.779 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.266 0.147 0.009 -0.140 3.120 -0.186 0.629 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.186 SERIES 685211 AND 685262 203 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.629 SERIES 685241 AND 685302 254 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.69 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 1. 10. 36. 66. 91. 105. 105. 190. 253. 276. RBAR 0.508 0.282 0.226 0.288 0.374 0.294 0.271 0.266 0.339 0.389 SDEV 0.000 0.268 0.244 0.194 0.169 0.200 0.235 0.189 0.173 0.171 SERR 0.000 0.085 0.041 0.024 0.018 0.020 0.023 0.014 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.846 0.766 0.774 0.851 0.898 0.876 0.884 0.892 0.924 0.939 NSS 5.3 8.3 11.7 14.1 14.7 16.9 20.5 22.9 23.9 24.0 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.340 0.304 0.342 SDEV 0.222 0.203 0.164 SERR 0.013 0.012 0.010 EPS 0.925 0.913 0.926 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 0.253 0.014 -0.434 4.820 0.041 0.490 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.270 0.203 -0.024 115 288 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.85 1.00 1.08 1.94 6.60 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 294. 125. 162. 211. 336. 403. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.488 0.365 0.334 0.370 0.375 0.345 0.329 0.231 0.259 0.229 PACF 0.488 0.166 0.140 0.184 0.139 0.079 0.074 -0.070 0.051 -0.018 95% C.L. 0.100 0.121 0.132 0.140 0.149 0.158 0.166 0.172 0.175 0.179 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.328 0.330 0.068 0.039 0.130 0.123 0.077 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 685211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00008342 0.26164973 2 685212 1 0.11390257 0.00162698 0.00000000 0.15479207 3 685231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004718 0.20761576 4 685232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005765 0.22846408 5 685241 1 0.02668642 0.00707723 0.00000000 0.23653306 6 685242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000613 0.24085319 7 685251 1 0.00335047 0.01456251 0.00000000 0.22404291 8 685252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003581 0.21484262 9 685261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009019 0.22848530 10 685262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016276 0.21318704 11 685271 1 0.01876986 0.01651092 0.00000000 0.27097979 12 685272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006147 0.28347355 13 685281 1 0.03050655 0.03297820 0.00000000 0.28296888 14 685282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007476 0.32816458 15 685291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000492 0.25513962 16 685292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004612 0.24404839 17 685301 1 0.04055430 0.01528638 0.00000000 0.29669964 18 685302 1 0.14471672 0.02872074 0.00000000 0.28541812 19 685311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000395 0.24538633 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 685321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00001481 0.26536348 21 685322 1 0.03420164 0.01755684 0.00000000 0.24899648 22 685332 1 0.09179679 0.12048502 0.00000000 0.26212698 23 685341 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000203 0.24534981 24 685342 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00004973 0.24680008 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.068 0.292 4.533 0.049 0.527 2 685212 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.071 0.302 3.328 0.052 0.523 3 685231 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.075 0.529 3.189 0.065 0.398 4 685232 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.077 0.434 3.312 0.058 0.530 5 685241 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.068 0.219 3.225 0.049 0.540 6 685242 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.065 0.207 2.989 0.061 0.260 7 685251 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.071 -1.738 16.543 0.050 0.442 8 685252 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.056 -0.073 3.297 0.048 0.398 9 685261 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.072 0.101 2.552 0.067 0.289 10 685262 1769 1971 203 1.000 0.078 0.151 2.660 0.058 0.519 11 685271 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.064 0.261 3.027 0.052 0.449 12 685272 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.072 1.407 9.223 0.058 0.377 13 685281 1651 1983 333 1.000 0.065 0.291 3.791 0.058 0.305 14 685282 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.063 1.147 8.796 0.052 0.350 15 685291 1618 1983 366 1.000 0.088 1.162 7.648 0.052 0.656 16 685292 1645 1983 339 1.000 0.066 0.403 3.673 0.050 0.502 17 685301 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.060 0.234 2.848 0.052 0.404 18 685302 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.075 0.640 3.547 0.061 0.424 19 685311 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.064 0.026 3.002 0.053 0.428 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 1.000 0.070 0.288 3.791 0.060 0.389 21 685322 1653 1983 331 1.000 0.066 0.197 3.998 0.055 0.386 22 685332 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.055 0.157 3.605 0.048 0.382 23 685341 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.080 0.103 3.459 0.060 0.508 24 685342 1581 1983 403 1.000 0.086 0.226 3.010 0.062 0.558 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 279 1.000 0.070 0.290 4.544 0.055 0.439 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.000 0.008 0.568 3.140 0.006 0.095 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 1.000 0.069 0.248 3.393 0.054 0.426 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.000 0.011 0.265 0.876 0.009 0.137 MINIMUM VALUE 162 1.000 0.055 -1.738 2.552 0.048 0.260 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.065 0.154 3.018 0.051 0.384 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 1.000 0.075 0.419 3.895 0.060 0.521 MAXIMUM VALUE 403 1.000 0.088 1.407 16.543 0.067 0.656 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 685211 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 685212 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 685231 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 685232 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 685241 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 685242 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 685251 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 685252 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 685261 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 685262 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 685271 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 685272 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 685281 -67 223 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 685282 -67 236 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 685291 -67 245 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 685292 -67 227 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 685301 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 685302 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 685311 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 685321 -67 238 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 685322 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 685332 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 685341 -67 254 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 685342 -67 270 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.059 0.008 4.342 0.049 0.373 2 685212 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.067 0.314 3.302 0.052 0.470 3 685231 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.070 0.567 3.231 0.065 0.311 4 685232 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.071 0.409 3.243 0.058 0.441 5 685241 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.064 0.289 3.142 0.049 0.481 6 685242 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.063 0.179 3.003 0.061 0.210 7 685251 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.066 -2.329 19.616 0.050 0.368 8 685252 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.052 -0.179 3.363 0.048 0.299 9 685261 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.066 0.128 2.620 0.067 0.168 10 685262 1769 1971 203 1.000 0.073 0.114 2.562 0.058 0.463 11 685271 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.060 0.189 3.101 0.052 0.387 12 685272 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.069 1.353 8.862 0.058 0.334 13 685281 1651 1983 333 1.000 0.064 0.289 3.848 0.058 0.287 14 685282 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.060 1.231 8.911 0.052 0.293 15 685291 1618 1983 366 1.000 0.084 1.232 8.658 0.052 0.622 16 685292 1645 1983 339 1.000 0.063 0.421 3.955 0.050 0.461 17 685301 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.053 0.235 3.280 0.052 0.228 18 685302 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.069 0.578 3.671 0.061 0.312 19 685311 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.059 0.001 2.977 0.053 0.320 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 1.000 0.066 0.224 4.181 0.060 0.307 21 685322 1653 1983 331 1.000 0.062 0.167 3.862 0.055 0.311 22 685332 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.050 0.092 3.897 0.048 0.276 23 685341 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.072 -0.176 3.673 0.060 0.397 24 685342 1581 1983 403 1.000 0.079 0.235 3.427 0.062 0.476 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 279 1.000 0.065 0.232 4.780 0.055 0.358 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.000 0.008 0.679 3.669 0.006 0.104 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 1.000 0.065 0.229 3.549 0.054 0.327 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.000 0.009 0.312 0.881 0.009 0.154 MINIMUM VALUE 162 1.000 0.050 -2.329 2.562 0.048 0.168 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.060 0.103 3.187 0.051 0.296 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 1.000 0.070 0.415 4.068 0.060 0.451 MAXIMUM VALUE 403 1.000 0.084 1.353 19.616 0.067 0.622 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.310 0.093 0.006 -0.014 3.103 0.040 0.602 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.040 SERIES 685231 AND 685251 188 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.602 SERIES 685281 AND 685282 333 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.69 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 1. 10. 36. 66. 91. 105. 105. 190. 253. 276. RBAR 0.560 0.263 0.280 0.298 0.368 0.307 0.300 0.280 0.346 0.406 SDEV 0.000 0.260 0.208 0.182 0.171 0.183 0.180 0.177 0.173 0.147 SERR 0.000 0.082 0.035 0.022 0.018 0.018 0.018 0.013 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.871 0.749 0.820 0.856 0.895 0.882 0.898 0.899 0.927 0.943 NSS 5.3 8.3 11.7 14.1 14.7 16.9 20.5 22.9 23.9 24.0 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.348 0.305 0.354 SDEV 0.195 0.201 0.158 SERR 0.012 0.012 0.009 EPS 0.928 0.913 0.929 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 1.000 0.049 0.524 3.859 0.043 0.331 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.033 0.016 0.036 92 311 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.45 1.00 1.05 1.50 5.21 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.330 0.182 0.176 0.171 0.182 0.166 0.133 0.007 0.040 0.009 PACF 0.330 0.082 0.106 0.086 0.095 0.062 0.029 -0.104 0.011 -0.048 95% C.L. 0.100 0.110 0.113 0.116 0.118 0.121 0.123 0.124 0.125 0.125 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.154 0.272 0.034 0.066 0.060 0.088 0.073 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.247 0.075 0.155 0.095 0.088 0.082 0.097 0.022 0.058 -0.043 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.247 2 0.244 0.015 3 0.242 -0.020 0.142 4 0.238 -0.019 0.136 0.026 5 0.236 -0.027 0.137 0.013 0.056 6 0.235 -0.028 0.133 0.013 0.049 0.030 7 0.233 -0.030 0.132 0.006 0.051 0.016 0.060 8 0.235 -0.030 0.134 0.006 0.056 0.015 0.069 -0.037 9 0.237 -0.033 0.133 0.003 0.056 0.009 0.070 -0.048 0.045 10 0.241 -0.038 0.140 0.004 0.061 0.009 0.084 -0.051 0.069 -0.103 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2130.76 2107.35 2109.26 2103.05 2104.78 2105.49 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2107.13 2107.68 2109.12 2110.31 2108.02 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.247 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 6.11 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.51 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.247 0.061 0.015 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 685211 1 0.155 0.375 2 685212 1 0.253 0.475 3 685231 1 0.108 0.311 4 685232 1 0.205 0.446 5 685241 1 0.284 0.482 6 685242 1 0.055 0.212 7 685251 1 0.140 0.373 8 685252 1 0.118 0.307 9 685261 1 0.030 0.168 10 685262 1 0.250 0.465 11 685271 1 0.176 0.388 12 685272 1 0.133 0.365 13 685281 1 0.086 0.293 14 685282 1 0.104 0.299 15 685291 1 0.468 0.646 16 685292 1 0.251 0.462 17 685301 1 0.054 0.228 18 685302 1 0.125 0.314 19 685311 1 0.105 0.323 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 685321 1 0.113 0.312 21 685322 1 0.138 0.311 22 685332 1 0.090 0.277 23 685341 1 0.178 0.400 24 685342 1 0.285 0.484 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.163 0.363 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.097 0.107 MEDIAN 1 0.135 0.344 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.123 0.151 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.030 0.168 LOWER HINGE 1 0.104 0.303 UPPER HINGE 1 0.227 0.454 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.468 0.646 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.055 -0.026 3.908 0.061 -0.048 2 685212 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.059 0.304 3.278 0.068 -0.083 3 685231 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.067 0.500 3.368 0.078 -0.034 4 685232 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.063 0.362 3.796 0.071 -0.036 5 685241 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.056 0.265 3.504 0.065 -0.125 6 685242 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.062 0.095 3.027 0.069 -0.023 7 685251 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.061 -1.896 18.454 0.061 -0.009 8 685252 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.049 -0.132 3.409 0.058 -0.045 9 685261 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.065 0.112 2.779 0.074 -0.006 10 685262 1769 1971 203 1.000 0.064 -0.037 3.151 0.076 -0.093 11 685271 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.056 0.003 2.866 0.064 -0.066 12 685272 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.063 1.112 7.524 0.069 -0.031 13 685281 1651 1983 333 1.000 0.061 0.447 3.924 0.067 -0.007 14 685282 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.058 1.489 11.735 0.062 -0.040 15 685291 1618 1983 366 1.000 0.063 0.636 4.747 0.076 -0.202 16 685292 1645 1983 339 1.000 0.056 0.140 4.027 0.065 -0.100 17 685301 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.052 0.139 3.248 0.059 -0.009 18 685302 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.065 0.454 3.506 0.073 -0.052 19 685311 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.056 -0.054 2.913 0.064 -0.008 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 1.000 0.063 0.241 4.325 0.072 -0.046 21 685322 1653 1983 331 1.000 0.059 0.188 4.103 0.066 -0.065 22 685332 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.049 0.181 3.890 0.056 -0.034 23 685341 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.066 -0.025 3.606 0.074 -0.060 24 685342 1581 1983 403 1.000 0.069 0.279 3.349 0.081 -0.131 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 279 1.000 0.060 0.199 4.685 0.068 -0.056 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.000 0.005 0.580 3.484 0.007 0.047 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 1.000 0.061 0.184 3.556 0.067 -0.045 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.000 0.008 0.415 0.802 0.011 0.048 MINIMUM VALUE 162 1.000 0.049 -1.896 2.779 0.056 -0.202 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.056 -0.011 3.263 0.063 -0.075 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 1.000 0.064 0.404 4.065 0.074 -0.027 MAXIMUM VALUE 403 1.000 0.069 1.489 18.454 0.081 -0.006 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.341 0.088 0.005 -0.046 3.510 0.092 0.630 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.092 SERIES 685231 AND 685251 188 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.630 SERIES 685281 AND 685282 333 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.69 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 1. 10. 36. 66. 91. 105. 105. 190. 253. 276. RBAR 0.588 0.315 0.319 0.334 0.379 0.356 0.347 0.322 0.387 0.425 SDEV 0.000 0.121 0.159 0.141 0.140 0.144 0.125 0.146 0.146 0.125 SERR 0.000 0.038 0.027 0.017 0.015 0.014 0.012 0.011 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.883 0.793 0.846 0.876 0.900 0.904 0.916 0.916 0.938 0.947 NSS 5.3 8.3 11.7 14.1 14.7 16.9 20.5 22.9 23.9 24.0 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.362 0.351 0.377 SDEV 0.158 0.186 0.148 SERR 0.010 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.932 0.929 0.936 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 1.000 0.044 0.428 3.329 0.051 -0.084 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.004 0.002 0.043 97 306 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.49 1.00 1.06 1.56 12.89 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.084 0.007 0.042 0.049 0.089 0.057 0.084 -0.076 0.035 -0.030 PACF -0.084 0.000 0.043 0.056 0.098 0.073 0.093 -0.072 0.005 -0.054 95% C.L. 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.101 0.101 0.102 0.102 0.103 0.103 0.103 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.007 -0.085 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.003 0.047 0.060 0.099 0.073 0.083 -0.067 0.026 -0.028 PACF 0.001 0.003 0.047 0.060 0.100 0.072 0.081 -0.079 0.007 -0.057 95% C.L. 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.101 0.102 0.102 0.103 0.103 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 1.000 0.046 0.494 3.655 0.043 0.252 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.251 0.080 0.087 0.107 0.140 0.117 0.092 -0.035 0.008 -0.028 PACF 0.251 0.018 0.067 0.074 0.099 0.056 0.039 -0.095 0.010 -0.064 95% C.L. 0.100 0.106 0.106 0.107 0.108 0.110 0.111 0.112 0.112 0.112 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.066 0.256 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.31 MINUTES