RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: UT511T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: UT511T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 685 1 Ceader Breaks DENSITY_LATE PCEN - 685 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3120 3735-11351 1581 1983 685 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 10 685262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1880 1882 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 685301 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1873 1878 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 4.847 0.707 -0.130 2.656 0.103 0.611 2 685212 1684 1983 300 4.980 0.599 -0.191 3.589 0.111 0.342 3 685231 1796 1983 188 5.245 0.642 -0.743 3.728 0.135 0.076 4 685232 1822 1983 162 5.088 0.655 -0.532 3.016 0.145 0.034 5 685241 1693 1983 291 5.449 0.682 -0.181 2.907 0.090 0.581 6 685242 1688 1983 296 5.324 0.647 -0.545 3.269 0.113 0.318 7 685251 1796 1983 188 5.041 0.587 -0.565 3.498 0.125 0.119 8 685252 1802 1983 182 4.740 0.598 -0.397 3.133 0.135 0.091 9 685261 1774 1983 210 4.954 0.570 -0.342 3.593 0.101 0.382 10 685262 1769 1971 203 5.199 0.494 -0.646 3.061 0.081 0.381 11 685271 1693 1983 291 5.293 0.719 -0.043 2.345 0.095 0.619 12 685272 1766 1983 218 5.800 0.738 -0.666 3.273 0.127 0.240 13 685281 1651 1983 333 5.609 0.617 -0.391 3.038 0.104 0.293 14 685282 1631 1983 353 6.307 0.578 -0.580 3.727 0.085 0.302 15 685291 1618 1983 366 5.418 0.601 -0.596 3.155 0.109 0.242 16 685292 1645 1983 339 5.574 0.521 -0.710 3.674 0.096 0.183 17 685301 1772 1983 212 6.173 0.621 -0.939 4.296 0.101 0.196 18 685302 1730 1983 254 5.651 0.655 -0.326 2.887 0.103 0.322 19 685311 1680 1983 304 5.480 0.738 -0.540 2.753 0.117 0.390 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 5.840 0.665 -0.547 3.118 0.095 0.471 21 685322 1653 1983 331 4.991 0.635 0.078 2.396 0.102 0.515 22 685332 1772 1983 212 5.584 0.674 -0.683 3.376 0.120 0.203 23 685341 1604 1983 380 5.395 0.604 -0.252 2.633 0.105 0.317 24 685342 1581 1983 403 5.073 0.625 -0.073 2.725 0.088 0.593 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1581 TO 1983 403 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 279 5.377 0.632 -0.439 3.160 0.108 0.326 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.398 0.061 0.257 0.470 0.017 0.173 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 5.359 0.630 -0.536 3.126 0.104 0.317 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 128 0.539 0.071 0.400 0.724 0.023 0.231 MINIMUM VALUE 162 4.740 0.494 -0.939 2.345 0.081 0.034 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 208 5.057 0.598 -0.621 2.820 0.095 0.200 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 5.596 0.670 -0.221 3.544 0.118 0.431 MAXIMUM VALUE 403 6.307 0.738 0.078 4.296 0.145 0.619 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.466 0.156 0.009 -0.490 3.427 -0.090 0.817 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.090 SERIES 685262 AND 685271 203 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.817 SERIES 685281 AND 685282 333 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.69 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 1. 10. 36. 66. 91. 105. 105. 190. 253. 276. RBAR 0.832 0.648 0.535 0.545 0.589 0.496 0.462 0.544 0.625 0.598 SDEV 0.000 0.122 0.158 0.194 0.153 0.173 0.202 0.183 0.131 0.155 SERR 0.000 0.039 0.026 0.024 0.016 0.017 0.020 0.013 0.008 0.009 EPS 0.964 0.939 0.931 0.944 0.955 0.943 0.946 0.965 0.975 0.973 NSS 5.3 8.3 11.7 14.1 14.7 16.9 20.5 22.9 23.9 24.0 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.582 0.509 0.484 SDEV 0.153 0.187 0.196 SERR 0.009 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.971 0.961 0.958 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 5.424 0.472 -0.591 3.597 0.087 0.172 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.012 -0.006 0.571 50 353 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.57 1.00 1.04 1.61 7.64 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.86 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 294. 125. 162. 211. 336. 403. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.171 0.282 0.153 0.205 0.180 0.308 0.146 0.235 0.131 0.166 PACF 0.171 0.260 0.081 0.117 0.099 0.222 0.018 0.087 0.012 0.019 95% C.L. 0.100 0.103 0.110 0.112 0.116 0.118 0.126 0.128 0.132 0.133 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.173 0.058 0.187 0.036 0.064 0.085 0.232 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 685211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00541736 5.71889210 2 685212 1 1.17611241 0.01179057 0.00000000 4.65958738 3 685231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00329638 5.55629539 4 685232 1 0.09685264 0.02438827 0.00000000 5.06402826 5 685241 1 1.84675443 0.00599425 0.00000000 4.57797956 6 685242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00400969 5.91918898 7 685251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00378618 4.68353558 8 685252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00199496 4.92220926 9 685261 1 1.93279839 0.00343876 0.00000000 3.57987881 10 685262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00361919 4.83476686 11 685271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00298433 5.72908020 12 685272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00184034 5.59857416 13 685281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00124879 5.40034056 14 685282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00044058 6.22949648 15 685291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00140654 5.67621422 16 685292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00055474 5.47935200 17 685301 1 0.35612896 0.04747819 0.00000000 6.13030815 18 685302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00127086 5.48942184 19 685311 1 5.40379143 0.00088104 0.00000000 0.74317002 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 685321 1 0.82710302 0.00432147 0.00000000 5.41847134 21 685322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00291013 5.47359467 22 685332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00240390 5.32794666 23 685341 1 0.80807894 0.00383910 0.00000000 4.97035503 24 685342 1 0.73872894 0.00663673 0.00000000 4.81674814 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.103 -0.290 3.197 0.102 0.223 2 685212 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.105 -0.438 3.902 0.111 0.103 3 685231 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.118 -0.741 3.661 0.134 -0.007 4 685232 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.129 -0.530 3.008 0.144 0.033 5 685241 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.098 -0.594 3.392 0.090 0.311 6 685242 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.104 -0.614 3.480 0.112 0.044 7 685251 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.109 -0.698 3.669 0.124 0.011 8 685252 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.125 -0.367 3.181 0.135 0.057 9 685261 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.100 -0.666 4.040 0.101 0.159 10 685262 1769 1971 203 1.000 0.086 -0.720 3.685 0.081 0.250 11 685271 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.128 0.155 2.482 0.094 0.564 12 685272 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.126 -0.540 3.364 0.127 0.234 13 685281 1651 1983 333 1.000 0.108 -0.441 3.200 0.104 0.266 14 685282 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.091 -0.568 3.763 0.085 0.298 15 685291 1618 1983 366 1.000 0.108 -0.457 3.068 0.108 0.195 16 685292 1645 1983 339 1.000 0.093 -0.696 3.698 0.096 0.175 17 685301 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.100 -0.862 4.276 0.100 0.187 18 685302 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.115 -0.233 3.285 0.103 0.316 19 685311 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.117 -0.755 3.783 0.117 0.200 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 1.000 0.111 -0.410 3.005 0.095 0.431 21 685322 1653 1983 331 1.000 0.114 -0.045 2.632 0.102 0.384 22 685332 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.117 -0.875 3.781 0.119 0.176 23 685341 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.107 -0.287 3.034 0.105 0.251 24 685342 1581 1983 403 1.000 0.117 -0.210 2.746 0.087 0.545 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 279 1.000 0.110 -0.495 3.389 0.107 0.225 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.000 0.012 0.255 0.453 0.017 0.152 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 1.000 0.109 -0.535 3.378 0.103 0.212 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.000 0.016 0.368 0.680 0.023 0.173 MINIMUM VALUE 162 1.000 0.086 -0.875 2.482 0.081 -0.007 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.101 -0.697 3.051 0.095 0.131 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 1.000 0.117 -0.329 3.731 0.118 0.305 MAXIMUM VALUE 403 1.000 0.129 0.155 4.276 0.144 0.564 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 685211 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 685212 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 685231 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 685232 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 685241 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 685242 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 685251 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 685252 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 685261 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 685262 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 685271 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 685272 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 685281 -67 223 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 685282 -67 236 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 685291 -67 245 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 685292 -67 227 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 685301 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 685302 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 685311 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 685321 -67 238 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 685322 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 685332 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 685341 -67 254 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 685342 -67 270 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.099 -0.383 3.190 0.102 0.151 2 685212 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.103 -0.478 3.945 0.111 0.060 3 685231 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.115 -0.836 3.814 0.134 -0.077 4 685232 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.124 -0.584 3.193 0.144 -0.049 5 685241 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.094 -0.597 3.547 0.090 0.240 6 685242 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.102 -0.659 3.643 0.112 0.016 7 685251 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.107 -0.748 3.758 0.124 -0.038 8 685252 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.120 -0.440 3.438 0.135 -0.015 9 685261 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.098 -0.707 4.125 0.101 0.128 10 685262 1769 1971 203 1.000 0.079 -0.667 3.953 0.081 0.086 11 685271 1693 1983 291 0.999 0.098 -0.257 2.874 0.094 0.243 12 685272 1766 1983 218 0.999 0.113 -0.632 4.258 0.127 0.050 13 685281 1651 1983 333 1.000 0.101 -0.561 3.396 0.104 0.164 14 685282 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.088 -0.579 3.942 0.085 0.241 15 685291 1618 1983 366 1.000 0.104 -0.512 3.148 0.108 0.130 16 685292 1645 1983 339 1.000 0.092 -0.713 3.810 0.096 0.154 17 685301 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.096 -1.067 4.729 0.100 0.132 18 685302 1730 1983 254 0.999 0.106 -0.514 3.509 0.103 0.209 19 685311 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.114 -0.737 4.025 0.117 0.159 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 1.000 0.107 -0.464 3.037 0.095 0.390 21 685322 1653 1983 331 1.000 0.108 -0.068 2.661 0.102 0.326 22 685332 1772 1983 212 0.999 0.109 -0.988 4.274 0.119 0.033 23 685341 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.106 -0.335 3.058 0.105 0.230 24 685342 1581 1983 403 0.999 0.105 -0.264 2.987 0.087 0.437 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 279 1.000 0.104 -0.575 3.596 0.107 0.142 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.000 0.010 0.227 0.515 0.017 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 1.000 0.105 -0.581 3.595 0.103 0.141 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.000 0.011 0.258 0.780 0.023 0.193 MINIMUM VALUE 162 0.999 0.079 -1.067 2.661 0.081 -0.077 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.098 -0.710 3.169 0.095 0.041 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 1.000 0.108 -0.452 3.949 0.118 0.235 MAXIMUM VALUE 403 1.000 0.124 -0.068 4.729 0.144 0.437 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.545 0.103 0.006 -0.034 2.844 0.297 0.827 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.297 SERIES 685261 AND 685342 210 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.827 SERIES 685231 AND 685232 162 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.69 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 1. 10. 36. 66. 91. 105. 105. 190. 253. 276. RBAR 0.840 0.660 0.564 0.534 0.604 0.532 0.474 0.556 0.628 0.624 SDEV 0.000 0.113 0.134 0.207 0.131 0.140 0.183 0.171 0.128 0.128 SERR 0.000 0.036 0.022 0.026 0.014 0.014 0.018 0.012 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.965 0.942 0.938 0.942 0.957 0.951 0.948 0.966 0.976 0.976 NSS 5.3 8.3 11.7 14.1 14.7 16.9 20.5 22.9 23.9 24.0 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.593 0.532 0.504 SDEV 0.141 0.184 0.185 SERR 0.008 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.972 0.965 0.961 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 0.996 0.080 -0.743 3.892 0.087 0.021 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.095 -0.031 0.094 90 313 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.36 1.00 1.06 1.42 4.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.021 0.172 -0.008 0.080 0.030 0.205 0.006 0.112 -0.009 0.036 PACF 0.021 0.171 -0.015 0.052 0.033 0.188 -0.009 0.051 -0.009 -0.009 95% C.L. 0.100 0.100 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.107 0.107 0.108 0.108 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.030 0.017 0.172 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.082 0.123 -0.111 0.051 -0.079 0.200 -0.084 0.109 -0.046 0.016 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.082 2 -0.073 0.117 3 -0.062 0.110 -0.094 4 -0.060 0.108 -0.092 0.023 5 -0.058 0.103 -0.087 0.020 -0.052 6 -0.049 0.100 -0.071 0.001 -0.041 0.179 7 -0.041 0.098 -0.071 -0.002 -0.037 0.177 -0.046 8 -0.038 0.088 -0.069 -0.002 -0.033 0.172 -0.043 0.054 9 -0.039 0.088 -0.071 -0.001 -0.033 0.173 -0.044 0.055 0.010 10 -0.039 0.090 -0.072 0.003 -0.034 0.173 -0.046 0.057 0.009 -0.025 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2710.41 2709.67 2706.09 2704.52 2706.31 2707.22 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2696.03 2697.19 2698.00 2699.96 2701.71 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.062 0.110 -0.094 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.91 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.99 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.062 0.114 -0.108 0.025 -0.024 0.014 -0.006 0.004 -0.002 0.0012 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 685211 3 0.070 0.119 0.197 0.011 2 685212 3 0.100 0.039 0.299 0.011 3 685231 3 0.023 -0.064 0.117 -0.033 4 685232 3 0.029 -0.038 0.083 -0.088 5 685241 3 0.104 0.203 0.188 -0.035 6 685242 3 0.043 0.011 0.149 0.018 7 685251 3 0.037 -0.039 0.182 0.045 8 685252 3 0.042 -0.018 0.178 0.028 9 685261 3 0.046 0.112 0.174 -0.029 10 685262 3 0.057 0.060 0.219 0.030 11 685271 3 0.182 0.148 0.312 0.055 12 685272 3 0.037 0.042 0.177 -0.003 13 685281 3 0.097 0.116 0.236 0.036 14 685282 3 0.143 0.162 0.278 0.037 15 685291 3 0.051 0.100 0.172 0.041 16 685292 3 0.051 0.130 0.159 0.001 17 685301 3 0.074 0.085 0.194 0.100 18 685302 3 0.141 0.120 0.260 0.113 19 685311 3 0.056 0.150 0.135 -0.081 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 685321 3 0.240 0.255 0.278 0.066 21 685322 3 0.136 0.282 0.147 -0.011 22 685332 3 0.032 0.040 0.153 -0.077 23 685341 3 0.103 0.174 0.220 0.020 24 685342 3 0.290 0.274 0.261 0.113 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.091 0.103 0.199 0.015 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.069 0.097 0.059 0.055 MEDIAN 3 0.064 0.114 0.185 0.019 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.077 0.117 0.092 0.063 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.023 -0.064 0.083 -0.088 LOWER HINGE 3 0.043 0.039 0.156 -0.020 UPPER HINGE 3 0.120 0.156 0.248 0.043 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.290 0.282 0.312 0.113 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.096 -0.467 3.460 0.107 -0.002 2 685212 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.098 -0.572 4.090 0.109 -0.001 3 685231 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.113 -0.910 3.970 0.126 -0.001 4 685232 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.123 -0.645 3.202 0.139 0.007 5 685241 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.089 -0.506 4.090 0.098 0.005 6 685242 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.101 -0.681 3.714 0.112 -0.003 7 685251 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.105 -0.825 3.997 0.119 -0.002 8 685252 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.118 -0.440 3.593 0.131 -0.003 9 685261 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.096 -0.633 4.207 0.105 -0.001 10 685262 1769 1971 203 1.000 0.076 -0.659 4.568 0.081 -0.001 11 685271 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.090 -0.294 3.127 0.099 -0.008 12 685272 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.111 -0.693 4.444 0.128 -0.001 13 685281 1651 1983 333 1.000 0.097 -0.623 3.568 0.109 -0.004 14 685282 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.082 -0.573 3.816 0.090 -0.004 15 685291 1618 1983 366 1.000 0.102 -0.533 3.213 0.113 -0.002 16 685292 1645 1983 339 1.000 0.089 -0.699 3.883 0.100 0.000 17 685301 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.093 -1.266 5.308 0.103 -0.008 18 685302 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.099 -0.763 4.510 0.107 -0.014 19 685311 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.112 -0.789 3.996 0.123 0.008 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 1.000 0.094 -0.487 3.299 0.105 -0.008 21 685322 1653 1983 331 1.000 0.101 -0.032 2.811 0.116 0.000 22 685332 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.107 -1.009 4.500 0.119 0.002 23 685341 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.100 -0.472 3.427 0.112 -0.002 24 685342 1581 1983 403 1.000 0.089 -0.410 3.632 0.100 -0.019 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 279 1.000 0.099 -0.624 3.851 0.111 -0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.000 0.011 0.245 0.568 0.013 0.006 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 1.000 0.098 -0.628 3.850 0.109 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.000 0.015 0.251 0.705 0.017 0.004 MINIMUM VALUE 162 1.000 0.076 -1.266 2.811 0.081 -0.019 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.091 -0.731 3.443 0.102 -0.004 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 1.000 0.106 -0.480 4.149 0.119 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 403 1.000 0.123 -0.032 5.308 0.139 0.008 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.596 0.090 0.005 -0.195 2.923 0.363 0.836 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.363 SERIES 685332 AND 685341 212 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.836 SERIES 685281 AND 685282 333 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.69 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 1. 10. 36. 66. 91. 105. 105. 190. 253. 276. RBAR 0.859 0.705 0.654 0.634 0.668 0.595 0.549 0.615 0.662 0.650 SDEV 0.000 0.093 0.084 0.143 0.102 0.107 0.152 0.142 0.106 0.114 SERR 0.000 0.029 0.014 0.018 0.011 0.010 0.015 0.010 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.970 0.952 0.957 0.961 0.967 0.961 0.961 0.973 0.979 0.978 NSS 5.3 8.3 11.7 14.1 14.7 16.9 20.5 22.9 23.9 24.0 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.620 0.558 0.532 SDEV 0.128 0.166 0.153 SERR 0.008 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.975 0.968 0.965 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 0.998 0.078 -0.873 4.453 0.090 -0.113 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.180 -0.054 0.109 104 299 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.30 1.00 1.05 1.35 7.16 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.113 -0.052 -0.081 -0.010 -0.020 0.156 -0.041 0.054 -0.044 -0.006 PACF -0.113 -0.066 -0.096 -0.036 -0.038 0.142 -0.011 0.067 -0.009 -0.002 95% C.L. 0.100 0.101 0.101 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.104 0.104 0.105 0.105 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.017 -0.113 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 -0.006 0.008 -0.031 -0.011 0.148 -0.020 0.059 -0.020 -0.013 PACF -0.004 -0.006 0.008 -0.031 -0.011 0.148 -0.019 0.061 -0.023 -0.004 95% C.L. 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.001 -0.004 -0.006 0.008 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 0.998 0.078 -0.872 4.418 0.089 -0.086 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.086 0.119 -0.119 0.018 -0.053 0.170 -0.043 0.084 -0.049 0.017 PACF -0.086 0.113 -0.102 -0.011 -0.028 0.156 -0.014 0.040 -0.004 -0.003 95% C.L. 0.100 0.100 0.102 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.106 0.106 0.107 0.107 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.031 -0.064 0.105 -0.104 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.33 MINUTES