RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: UT511W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: UT511W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 685 1 Ceader Breaks WIDTH_RING PCEN - 685 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3120 3735-11351 1581 1983 685 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 10 685262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1880 1882 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 685301 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1873 1878 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 0.891 0.418 1.447 4.754 0.142 0.916 2 685212 1684 1983 300 1.048 0.418 1.248 4.238 0.140 0.858 3 685231 1796 1983 188 1.799 0.829 0.392 2.217 0.121 0.944 4 685232 1822 1983 162 1.697 0.714 0.576 2.561 0.161 0.875 5 685241 1693 1983 291 1.020 0.461 1.187 4.189 0.144 0.898 6 685242 1688 1983 296 1.068 0.612 1.543 4.935 0.146 0.923 7 685251 1796 1983 188 1.878 0.653 0.425 2.613 0.147 0.851 8 685252 1802 1983 182 1.985 0.590 0.355 2.464 0.137 0.825 9 685261 1774 1983 210 1.761 0.643 1.065 3.547 0.133 0.878 10 685262 1769 1971 203 1.705 0.547 1.232 4.165 0.128 0.875 11 685271 1693 1983 291 0.825 0.329 0.581 2.784 0.137 0.877 12 685272 1766 1983 218 1.033 0.407 0.904 3.108 0.129 0.904 13 685281 1651 1983 333 0.716 0.204 0.423 2.931 0.166 0.731 14 685282 1631 1983 353 0.602 0.181 0.468 3.458 0.185 0.709 15 685291 1618 1983 366 0.803 0.269 0.555 4.868 0.159 0.797 16 685292 1645 1983 339 0.791 0.218 0.750 3.677 0.150 0.750 17 685301 1772 1983 212 1.042 0.407 1.022 3.195 0.158 0.864 18 685302 1730 1983 254 0.830 0.255 0.554 2.795 0.163 0.799 19 685311 1680 1983 304 0.819 0.470 0.625 2.545 0.168 0.923 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 0.793 0.334 1.200 4.779 0.159 0.870 21 685322 1653 1983 331 0.734 0.305 0.506 2.503 0.156 0.897 22 685332 1772 1983 212 0.808 0.273 0.139 2.335 0.164 0.808 23 685341 1604 1983 380 0.862 0.587 1.385 4.301 0.166 0.946 24 685342 1581 1983 403 0.799 0.433 1.255 3.807 0.166 0.928 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1581 TO 1983 403 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 279 1.096 0.440 0.827 3.449 0.151 0.860 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.436 0.175 0.410 0.898 0.016 0.066 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 0.877 0.418 0.688 3.327 0.153 0.875 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 128 0.582 0.300 0.729 1.627 0.025 0.094 MINIMUM VALUE 162 0.602 0.181 0.139 2.217 0.121 0.709 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 208 0.801 0.289 0.487 2.587 0.138 0.817 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 1.383 0.589 1.216 4.214 0.163 0.910 MAXIMUM VALUE 403 1.985 0.829 1.543 4.935 0.185 0.946 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.348 0.387 0.023 -0.298 1.921 -0.565 0.946 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.565 SERIES 685232 AND 685332 162 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.946 SERIES 685241 AND 685242 291 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.69 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 1. 10. 36. 66. 91. 105. 105. 190. 253. 276. RBAR 0.526 0.342 0.274 0.570 0.443 0.339 0.389 0.443 0.481 0.300 SDEV 0.000 0.251 0.279 0.158 0.211 0.330 0.232 0.255 0.203 0.258 SERR 0.000 0.079 0.047 0.019 0.022 0.032 0.023 0.018 0.013 0.016 EPS 0.855 0.812 0.816 0.949 0.921 0.897 0.929 0.948 0.957 0.912 NSS 5.3 8.3 11.7 14.1 14.7 16.9 20.5 22.9 23.9 24.0 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.295 0.364 0.347 SDEV 0.317 0.290 0.272 SERR 0.019 0.017 0.016 EPS 0.910 0.932 0.927 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 0.996 0.333 1.686 6.566 0.125 0.861 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.090 0.045 0.333 167 236 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.86 4.14 1.01 1.33 5.47 19.05 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.84 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 294. 125. 162. 211. 336. 403. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.859 0.789 0.758 0.739 0.733 0.719 0.691 0.662 0.617 0.597 PACF 0.859 0.197 0.178 0.129 0.135 0.066 -0.001 -0.011 -0.097 0.020 95% C.L. 0.100 0.157 0.192 0.220 0.243 0.264 0.283 0.299 0.314 0.325 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.769 0.614 0.044 0.065 0.047 0.094 0.072 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 685211 1 1.52111173 0.01505490 0.00000000 0.58107799 2 685212 1 1.41884875 0.01276005 0.00000000 0.68791425 3 685231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01354028 3.07865167 4 685232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01180517 2.65940499 5 685241 1 1.62769723 0.00896236 0.00000000 0.44478917 6 685242 1 2.20256138 0.01302492 0.00000000 0.51254225 7 685251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00973238 2.79763508 8 685252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00816710 2.73234463 9 685261 1 2.36159062 0.00729352 0.00000000 0.55704248 10 685262 1 1.86988175 0.00757103 0.00000000 0.74652147 11 685271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00340414 1.32154000 12 685272 1 1.39185584 0.00983912 0.00000000 0.46335605 13 685281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00041763 0.64671206 14 685282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001577 0.59913486 15 685291 1 0.46163169 0.02487558 0.00000000 0.75271857 16 685292 1 0.60378700 0.03974688 0.00000000 0.74746162 17 685301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00144132 0.88734001 18 685302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00169737 0.61319101 19 685311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00466145 1.52955580 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 685321 1 1.18599033 0.00398752 0.00000000 0.16041443 21 685322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00257861 1.16179514 22 685332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00180069 0.61638689 23 685341 1 2.08845186 0.01023429 0.00000000 0.33906078 24 685342 1 1.34105527 0.01156490 0.00000000 0.51585633 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.207 0.293 3.177 0.142 0.631 2 685212 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.190 -0.057 3.485 0.140 0.554 3 685231 1796 1983 188 1.013 0.271 1.775 7.276 0.121 0.769 4 685232 1822 1983 162 1.002 0.277 1.492 6.264 0.160 0.718 5 685241 1693 1983 291 0.999 0.182 0.536 3.961 0.144 0.511 6 685242 1688 1983 296 0.999 0.202 0.572 3.669 0.146 0.592 7 685251 1796 1983 188 1.001 0.206 0.398 3.557 0.147 0.605 8 685252 1802 1983 182 0.999 0.205 0.741 3.534 0.136 0.653 9 685261 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.190 0.531 3.266 0.133 0.595 10 685262 1769 1971 203 1.000 0.185 0.555 3.497 0.126 0.638 11 685271 1693 1983 291 1.002 0.180 0.210 2.921 0.136 0.530 12 685272 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.207 0.276 3.091 0.129 0.699 13 685281 1651 1983 333 1.000 0.284 0.582 3.303 0.165 0.728 14 685282 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.301 0.482 3.493 0.185 0.707 15 685291 1618 1983 366 1.000 0.316 0.475 5.112 0.158 0.788 16 685292 1645 1983 339 1.000 0.247 0.660 3.762 0.150 0.691 17 685301 1772 1983 212 0.999 0.365 0.955 3.310 0.156 0.841 18 685302 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.265 0.434 2.943 0.162 0.714 19 685311 1680 1983 304 1.090 0.551 2.483 11.737 0.168 0.832 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 1.000 0.253 0.820 4.880 0.159 0.678 21 685322 1653 1983 331 1.002 0.241 0.539 3.325 0.156 0.637 22 685332 1772 1983 212 1.003 0.332 0.576 3.644 0.163 0.776 23 685341 1604 1983 380 1.005 0.263 -0.043 2.987 0.166 0.675 24 685342 1581 1983 403 1.001 0.339 0.632 3.970 0.165 0.801 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 279 1.005 0.261 0.663 4.174 0.150 0.682 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.018 0.083 0.557 1.925 0.016 0.092 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 1.000 0.250 0.547 3.515 0.153 0.685 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.002 0.089 0.284 0.681 0.025 0.131 MINIMUM VALUE 162 0.999 0.180 -0.057 2.921 0.121 0.511 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.203 0.416 3.284 0.138 0.618 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 1.002 0.292 0.701 3.965 0.163 0.749 MAXIMUM VALUE 403 1.090 0.551 2.483 11.737 0.185 0.841 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 685211 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 685212 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 685231 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 685232 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 685241 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 685242 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 685251 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 685252 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 685261 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 685262 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 685271 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 685272 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 685281 -67 223 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 685282 -67 236 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 685291 -67 245 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 685292 -67 227 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 685301 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 685302 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 685311 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 685321 -67 238 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 685322 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 685332 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 685341 -67 254 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 685342 -67 270 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 0.998 0.174 0.236 3.266 0.142 0.468 2 685212 1684 1983 300 0.998 0.175 -0.037 3.904 0.140 0.478 3 685231 1796 1983 188 0.998 0.240 1.416 6.020 0.120 0.760 4 685232 1822 1983 162 0.998 0.264 1.318 5.514 0.160 0.692 5 685241 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.177 0.501 3.952 0.144 0.483 6 685242 1688 1983 296 0.999 0.186 0.690 4.238 0.146 0.519 7 685251 1796 1983 188 0.999 0.199 0.386 3.622 0.147 0.582 8 685252 1802 1983 182 0.998 0.183 0.495 3.292 0.135 0.571 9 685261 1774 1983 210 0.999 0.181 0.480 3.422 0.132 0.558 10 685262 1769 1971 203 0.999 0.177 0.447 3.414 0.126 0.612 11 685271 1693 1983 291 0.999 0.174 0.287 3.148 0.136 0.495 12 685272 1766 1983 218 0.999 0.202 0.241 3.052 0.129 0.685 13 685281 1651 1983 333 0.998 0.262 0.467 3.239 0.165 0.683 14 685282 1631 1983 353 0.998 0.283 0.265 3.038 0.185 0.675 15 685291 1618 1983 366 0.996 0.308 0.790 7.047 0.159 0.771 16 685292 1645 1983 339 0.998 0.224 0.349 3.143 0.150 0.630 17 685301 1772 1983 212 0.990 0.238 0.404 2.549 0.156 0.644 18 685302 1730 1983 254 0.996 0.241 0.426 3.267 0.162 0.663 19 685311 1680 1983 304 0.993 0.300 0.565 4.157 0.168 0.715 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 0.996 0.225 0.847 5.230 0.158 0.604 21 685322 1653 1983 331 0.997 0.210 0.336 2.923 0.156 0.541 22 685332 1772 1983 212 0.992 0.240 0.314 3.259 0.163 0.631 23 685341 1604 1983 380 0.998 0.247 0.052 2.871 0.166 0.640 24 685342 1581 1983 403 0.992 0.248 0.416 3.999 0.165 0.638 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 279 0.997 0.223 0.487 3.815 0.150 0.614 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.003 0.041 0.336 1.099 0.016 0.087 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 0.998 0.225 0.421 3.353 0.153 0.630 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.003 0.065 0.232 0.933 0.025 0.130 MINIMUM VALUE 162 0.990 0.174 -0.037 2.549 0.120 0.468 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 0.996 0.182 0.301 3.145 0.138 0.549 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 0.999 0.247 0.533 4.078 0.163 0.679 MAXIMUM VALUE 403 1.000 0.308 1.416 7.047 0.185 0.771 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.325 0.188 0.011 -0.368 2.947 -0.163 0.824 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.163 SERIES 685231 AND 685322 188 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.824 SERIES 685231 AND 685232 162 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.69 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 1. 10. 36. 66. 91. 105. 105. 190. 253. 276. RBAR 0.443 0.216 0.307 0.468 0.437 0.317 0.404 0.433 0.409 0.326 SDEV 0.000 0.269 0.229 0.154 0.232 0.267 0.211 0.176 0.194 0.220 SERR 0.000 0.085 0.038 0.019 0.024 0.026 0.021 0.013 0.012 0.013 EPS 0.809 0.696 0.839 0.925 0.919 0.887 0.933 0.946 0.943 0.921 NSS 5.3 8.3 11.7 14.1 14.7 16.9 20.5 22.9 23.9 24.0 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.358 0.366 0.345 SDEV 0.273 0.296 0.256 SERR 0.016 0.018 0.015 EPS 0.931 0.933 0.927 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 0.983 0.157 0.217 3.337 0.121 0.538 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.316 0.146 0.027 128 275 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.61 1.00 1.06 1.67 24.91 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.10 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.537 0.345 0.248 0.206 0.168 0.111 0.033 -0.049 -0.067 -0.063 PACF 0.537 0.081 0.049 0.055 0.025 -0.021 -0.066 -0.090 -0.018 -0.003 95% C.L. 0.100 0.125 0.134 0.139 0.142 0.144 0.144 0.145 0.145 0.145 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.301 0.498 0.082 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.495 0.279 0.206 0.203 0.137 0.065 -0.030 -0.087 -0.062 -0.052 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.495 2 0.472 0.046 3 0.469 0.013 0.068 4 0.463 0.012 0.024 0.092 5 0.465 0.013 0.025 0.100 -0.017 6 0.464 0.016 0.026 0.101 -0.001 -0.034 7 0.461 0.016 0.035 0.103 0.000 0.011 -0.096 8 0.454 0.017 0.035 0.111 0.003 0.012 -0.062 -0.075 9 0.455 0.018 0.035 0.111 0.001 0.011 -0.062 -0.082 0.016 10 0.455 0.017 0.035 0.111 0.001 0.012 -0.062 -0.082 0.018 -0.005 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3129.70 3018.46 3019.62 3019.76 3018.30 3020.19 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3021.72 3019.98 3019.72 3021.61 3023.60 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.495 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 24.50 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 132.45 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.495 0.245 0.121 0.060 0.030 0.015 0.007 0.004 0.002 0.0009 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 685211 1 0.232 0.469 2 685212 1 0.251 0.479 3 685231 1 0.624 0.789 4 685232 1 0.498 0.702 5 685241 1 0.233 0.483 6 685242 1 0.273 0.519 7 685251 1 0.343 0.586 8 685252 1 0.328 0.572 9 685261 1 0.317 0.562 10 685262 1 0.379 0.615 11 685271 1 0.248 0.496 12 685272 1 0.472 0.685 13 685281 1 0.467 0.683 14 685282 1 0.461 0.677 15 685291 1 0.603 0.775 16 685292 1 0.406 0.630 17 685301 1 0.425 0.645 18 685302 1 0.445 0.664 19 685311 1 0.545 0.727 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 685321 1 0.370 0.608 21 685322 1 0.297 0.541 22 685332 1 0.402 0.634 23 685341 1 0.430 0.641 24 685342 1 0.450 0.645 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.396 0.618 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.111 0.090 MEDIAN 1 0.404 0.632 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.157 0.128 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.232 0.469 LOWER HINGE 1 0.307 0.551 UPPER HINGE 1 0.464 0.680 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.624 0.789 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.154 -0.002 3.448 0.174 -0.058 2 685212 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.154 -0.174 4.681 0.177 -0.079 3 685231 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.148 0.368 3.613 0.155 0.080 4 685232 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.188 0.725 3.178 0.199 0.076 5 685241 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.155 0.200 3.486 0.178 0.006 6 685242 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.159 0.420 3.470 0.183 -0.034 7 685251 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.161 0.347 3.887 0.183 0.011 8 685252 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.150 0.587 3.987 0.169 0.016 9 685261 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.150 0.328 3.614 0.170 -0.029 10 685262 1769 1971 203 1.000 0.140 0.152 3.195 0.156 -0.021 11 685271 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.151 0.203 3.263 0.169 -0.026 12 685272 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.147 0.381 3.340 0.161 0.041 13 685281 1651 1983 333 1.000 0.191 -0.093 3.650 0.215 -0.015 14 685282 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.209 -0.240 4.047 0.245 -0.052 15 685291 1618 1983 366 1.000 0.194 0.572 5.308 0.210 0.061 16 685292 1645 1983 339 1.000 0.174 0.185 3.469 0.200 -0.079 17 685301 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.182 0.080 3.467 0.210 -0.080 18 685302 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.181 0.026 2.892 0.213 -0.060 19 685311 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.206 0.038 4.921 0.236 -0.122 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 1.000 0.178 0.491 4.336 0.202 -0.026 21 685322 1653 1983 331 1.000 0.177 0.286 3.325 0.197 -0.039 22 685332 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.185 0.586 4.420 0.204 -0.004 23 685341 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.189 0.098 3.213 0.224 -0.116 24 685342 1581 1983 403 1.000 0.189 0.340 3.859 0.220 -0.163 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 279 1.000 0.171 0.246 3.753 0.194 -0.030 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.000 0.020 0.252 0.602 0.025 0.061 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 1.000 0.176 0.245 3.550 0.198 -0.027 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.000 0.036 0.341 0.684 0.039 0.078 MINIMUM VALUE 162 1.000 0.140 -0.240 2.892 0.155 -0.163 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.152 0.059 3.333 0.172 -0.069 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 1.000 0.188 0.401 4.017 0.211 0.008 MAXIMUM VALUE 403 1.000 0.209 0.725 5.308 0.245 0.080 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.408 0.111 0.007 0.263 4.341 0.106 0.776 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.106 SERIES 685232 AND 685322 162 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.776 SERIES 685251 AND 685252 182 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.69 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 1. 10. 36. 66. 91. 105. 105. 190. 253. 276. RBAR 0.717 0.489 0.338 0.425 0.487 0.454 0.476 0.415 0.481 0.447 SDEV 0.000 0.097 0.134 0.134 0.132 0.151 0.126 0.143 0.137 0.154 SERR 0.000 0.031 0.022 0.016 0.014 0.015 0.012 0.010 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.931 0.888 0.857 0.912 0.933 0.934 0.949 0.942 0.957 0.951 NSS 5.3 8.3 11.7 14.1 14.7 16.9 20.5 22.9 23.9 24.0 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.407 0.443 0.421 SDEV 0.158 0.167 0.182 SERR 0.010 0.010 0.011 EPS 0.943 0.950 0.946 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 0.996 0.124 0.045 3.419 0.148 -0.106 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.238 0.099 0.020 106 297 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.67 1.00 1.06 1.72 6.76 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.106 -0.011 -0.024 0.051 0.029 0.057 0.015 -0.056 -0.028 -0.030 PACF -0.106 -0.022 -0.028 0.046 0.039 0.066 0.033 -0.051 -0.041 -0.048 95% C.L. 0.100 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.102 0.102 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.012 -0.106 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 -0.025 -0.021 0.053 0.041 0.063 0.016 -0.059 -0.038 -0.041 PACF -0.002 -0.025 -0.021 0.052 0.040 0.065 0.021 -0.057 -0.040 -0.053 95% C.L. 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 0.995 0.142 0.196 3.241 0.114 0.490 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.489 0.233 0.135 0.133 0.115 0.094 0.024 -0.060 -0.085 -0.092 PACF 0.489 -0.008 0.031 0.074 0.024 0.019 -0.053 -0.086 -0.035 -0.043 95% C.L. 0.100 0.121 0.125 0.127 0.128 0.129 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.131 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.243 0.493 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.31 MINUTES