RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: UT511X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: UT511X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 685 1 Ceader Breaks DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCEN - 685 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3120 3735-11351 1581 1983 685 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 10 685262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1880 1882 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 685301 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1873 1878 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 0.546 0.084 0.028 2.647 0.100 0.660 2 685212 1684 1983 300 0.563 0.069 0.154 3.242 0.108 0.407 3 685231 1796 1983 188 0.612 0.074 -0.371 3.030 0.132 0.134 4 685232 1822 1983 162 0.592 0.076 -0.300 2.599 0.143 0.065 5 685241 1693 1983 291 0.624 0.082 -0.049 2.515 0.092 0.626 6 685242 1688 1983 296 0.611 0.076 -0.325 2.878 0.109 0.421 7 685251 1796 1983 188 0.591 0.067 -0.392 3.154 0.124 0.120 8 685252 1802 1983 182 0.556 0.069 -0.081 2.803 0.131 0.156 9 685261 1774 1983 210 0.577 0.074 -0.032 2.964 0.104 0.505 10 685262 1769 1971 203 0.607 0.058 -0.665 2.991 0.080 0.418 11 685271 1693 1983 291 0.595 0.086 -0.007 2.143 0.097 0.653 12 685272 1766 1983 218 0.659 0.083 -0.454 2.820 0.122 0.309 13 685281 1651 1983 333 0.637 0.072 -0.238 2.780 0.106 0.321 14 685282 1631 1983 353 0.712 0.069 -0.385 3.128 0.091 0.317 15 685291 1618 1983 366 0.615 0.070 -0.362 2.851 0.109 0.286 16 685292 1645 1983 339 0.634 0.059 -0.481 3.115 0.098 0.183 17 685301 1772 1983 212 0.702 0.072 -0.630 3.529 0.102 0.220 18 685302 1730 1983 254 0.637 0.078 -0.214 2.475 0.107 0.382 19 685311 1680 1983 304 0.626 0.091 -0.267 2.355 0.113 0.515 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 0.663 0.080 -0.517 3.211 0.093 0.526 21 685322 1653 1983 331 0.563 0.079 0.119 2.356 0.107 0.553 22 685332 1772 1983 212 0.641 0.078 -0.425 3.081 0.114 0.286 23 685341 1604 1983 380 0.610 0.074 0.038 2.515 0.107 0.423 24 685342 1581 1983 403 0.575 0.077 0.036 2.552 0.089 0.654 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1581 TO 1983 403 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 279 0.615 0.075 -0.242 2.822 0.107 0.381 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.043 0.008 0.238 0.339 0.015 0.181 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 0.611 0.075 -0.283 2.836 0.107 0.394 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 128 0.053 0.010 0.389 0.564 0.016 0.267 MINIMUM VALUE 162 0.546 0.058 -0.665 2.143 0.080 0.065 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 208 0.584 0.069 -0.409 2.534 0.098 0.253 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 0.637 0.079 -0.020 3.098 0.113 0.520 MAXIMUM VALUE 403 0.712 0.091 0.154 3.529 0.143 0.660 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.457 0.167 0.010 -0.409 2.961 -0.072 0.825 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.072 SERIES 685262 AND 685271 203 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.825 SERIES 685281 AND 685282 333 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.69 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 1. 10. 36. 66. 91. 105. 105. 190. 253. 276. RBAR 0.784 0.646 0.496 0.543 0.594 0.499 0.479 0.563 0.633 0.603 SDEV 0.000 0.131 0.177 0.193 0.160 0.178 0.211 0.190 0.138 0.159 SERR 0.000 0.041 0.029 0.024 0.017 0.017 0.021 0.014 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.951 0.938 0.920 0.944 0.956 0.944 0.949 0.967 0.976 0.973 NSS 5.3 8.3 11.7 14.1 14.7 16.9 20.5 22.9 23.9 24.0 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.570 0.494 0.460 SDEV 0.164 0.192 0.212 SERR 0.010 0.012 0.013 EPS 0.970 0.959 0.953 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 0.622 0.056 -0.340 3.160 0.089 0.228 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.021 -0.010 0.069 46 357 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.56 1.00 1.07 1.62 9.99 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 294. 125. 162. 211. 336. 403. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.227 0.343 0.199 0.267 0.221 0.344 0.186 0.273 0.175 0.202 PACF 0.227 0.307 0.087 0.141 0.100 0.217 0.013 0.082 0.015 0.008 95% C.L. 0.100 0.105 0.115 0.119 0.124 0.128 0.137 0.140 0.145 0.147 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.222 0.076 0.212 0.034 0.081 0.083 0.230 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 685211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00067850 0.65503329 2 685212 1 0.15072484 0.01332949 0.00000000 0.52661431 3 685231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00047333 0.65637845 4 685232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013729 0.60304117 5 685241 1 0.24389808 0.00576712 0.00000000 0.50637060 6 685242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00054274 0.69174528 7 685251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00035260 0.55811584 8 685252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00033321 0.58680773 9 685261 1 0.38715443 0.00228624 0.00000000 0.27007905 10 685262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00035113 0.57178271 11 685271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00038674 0.65103471 12 685272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021635 0.63507080 13 685281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016913 0.60890281 14 685282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007122 0.69943327 15 685291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00019839 0.65189713 16 685292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001262 0.63227940 17 685301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000629 0.70055801 18 685302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00025538 0.60417169 19 685311 1 0.67703450 0.00104823 0.00000000 0.04631410 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 685321 1 0.19639084 0.00235298 0.00000000 0.53033119 21 685322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00038938 0.62777972 22 685332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00035078 0.60316104 23 685341 1 0.13684542 0.00653674 0.00000000 0.55970657 24 685342 1 0.11527090 0.00767579 0.00000000 0.53950393 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.101 -0.059 3.003 0.100 0.224 2 685212 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.102 -0.179 3.323 0.107 0.125 3 685231 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.114 -0.374 3.051 0.132 0.014 4 685232 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.128 -0.290 2.610 0.142 0.055 5 685241 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.099 -0.344 3.051 0.091 0.308 6 685242 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.100 -0.419 3.199 0.109 0.069 7 685251 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.109 -0.339 3.147 0.124 0.055 8 685252 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.121 -0.028 2.781 0.130 0.089 9 685261 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.105 -0.392 3.351 0.103 0.243 10 685262 1769 1971 203 1.000 0.090 -0.593 3.208 0.080 0.337 11 685271 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.134 0.202 2.361 0.097 0.595 12 685272 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.126 -0.257 2.825 0.122 0.305 13 685281 1651 1983 333 1.000 0.110 -0.274 2.805 0.106 0.285 14 685282 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.096 -0.364 3.144 0.090 0.310 15 685291 1618 1983 366 1.000 0.109 -0.215 2.764 0.109 0.219 16 685292 1645 1983 339 1.000 0.094 -0.475 3.117 0.097 0.183 17 685301 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.101 -0.601 3.501 0.101 0.220 18 685302 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.120 -0.085 2.898 0.107 0.357 19 685311 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.119 -0.326 3.244 0.112 0.279 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 1.000 0.111 -0.465 3.099 0.092 0.444 21 685322 1653 1983 331 1.000 0.121 -0.062 2.664 0.107 0.405 22 685332 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.117 -0.592 3.275 0.113 0.246 23 685341 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.108 -0.170 2.751 0.106 0.256 24 685342 1581 1983 403 1.000 0.124 -0.187 2.615 0.089 0.583 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 279 1.000 0.111 -0.287 2.991 0.107 0.259 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.000 0.012 0.197 0.282 0.015 0.152 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 1.000 0.109 -0.308 3.051 0.106 0.251 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.000 0.019 0.231 0.431 0.016 0.170 MINIMUM VALUE 162 1.000 0.090 -0.601 2.361 0.080 0.014 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.101 -0.405 2.772 0.097 0.154 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 1.000 0.120 -0.175 3.203 0.113 0.324 MAXIMUM VALUE 403 1.000 0.134 0.202 3.501 0.142 0.595 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 685211 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 685212 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 685231 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 685232 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 685241 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 685242 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 685251 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 685252 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 685261 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 685262 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 685271 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 685272 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 685281 -67 223 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 685282 -67 236 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 685291 -67 245 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 685292 -67 227 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 685301 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 685302 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 685311 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 685321 -67 238 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 685322 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 685332 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 685341 -67 254 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 685342 -67 270 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.097 -0.130 2.911 0.100 0.164 2 685212 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.100 -0.205 3.328 0.107 0.083 3 685231 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.110 -0.469 3.065 0.132 -0.072 4 685232 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.123 -0.274 2.782 0.142 -0.023 5 685241 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.094 -0.354 3.104 0.091 0.242 6 685242 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.098 -0.460 3.300 0.109 0.045 7 685251 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.105 -0.386 3.117 0.124 -0.008 8 685252 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.116 -0.065 2.852 0.130 0.005 9 685261 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.102 -0.432 3.358 0.103 0.207 10 685262 1769 1971 203 1.000 0.082 -0.424 3.203 0.080 0.193 11 685271 1693 1983 291 0.999 0.101 -0.160 2.499 0.097 0.285 12 685272 1766 1983 218 0.999 0.111 -0.171 3.256 0.122 0.100 13 685281 1651 1983 333 1.000 0.102 -0.378 2.947 0.106 0.180 14 685282 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.092 -0.348 3.213 0.090 0.253 15 685291 1618 1983 366 1.000 0.105 -0.258 2.782 0.109 0.169 16 685292 1645 1983 339 1.000 0.092 -0.459 3.100 0.097 0.154 17 685301 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.097 -0.771 3.924 0.101 0.142 18 685302 1730 1983 254 0.999 0.110 -0.227 3.000 0.107 0.242 19 685311 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.115 -0.269 3.457 0.112 0.233 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 1.000 0.108 -0.503 3.172 0.092 0.403 21 685322 1653 1983 331 1.000 0.116 -0.040 2.688 0.107 0.352 22 685332 1772 1983 212 0.999 0.107 -0.666 3.728 0.113 0.094 23 685341 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.106 -0.215 2.778 0.106 0.234 24 685342 1581 1983 403 0.999 0.108 -0.193 2.735 0.089 0.463 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 279 1.000 0.104 -0.327 3.096 0.107 0.172 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.000 0.009 0.179 0.331 0.015 0.132 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 1.000 0.105 -0.311 3.102 0.106 0.174 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.000 0.012 0.247 0.461 0.016 0.153 MINIMUM VALUE 162 0.999 0.082 -0.771 2.499 0.080 -0.072 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.098 -0.445 2.817 0.097 0.089 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 1.000 0.110 -0.199 3.278 0.113 0.242 MAXIMUM VALUE 403 1.000 0.123 -0.040 3.924 0.142 0.463 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.538 0.106 0.006 -0.064 2.865 0.271 0.819 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.271 SERIES 685261 AND 685341 210 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.819 SERIES 685231 AND 685232 162 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.69 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 1. 10. 36. 66. 91. 105. 105. 190. 253. 276. RBAR 0.799 0.669 0.534 0.523 0.608 0.538 0.492 0.576 0.637 0.631 SDEV 0.000 0.118 0.143 0.217 0.133 0.143 0.187 0.177 0.136 0.131 SERR 0.000 0.037 0.024 0.027 0.014 0.014 0.018 0.013 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.955 0.944 0.931 0.939 0.958 0.952 0.952 0.969 0.977 0.976 NSS 5.3 8.3 11.7 14.1 14.7 16.9 20.5 22.9 23.9 24.0 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.585 0.515 0.480 SDEV 0.152 0.189 0.199 SERR 0.009 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.971 0.962 0.957 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 0.995 0.082 -0.521 3.219 0.089 0.037 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.053 0.018 0.047 102 301 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.26 1.00 1.05 1.31 4.50 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.036 0.199 0.004 0.108 0.031 0.209 0.014 0.127 0.015 0.049 PACF 0.036 0.198 -0.009 0.072 0.028 0.181 -0.006 0.056 0.008 -0.011 95% C.L. 0.100 0.100 0.104 0.104 0.105 0.105 0.109 0.109 0.110 0.110 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.041 0.029 0.199 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.088 0.128 -0.120 0.054 -0.102 0.188 -0.087 0.108 -0.040 0.020 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.088 2 -0.078 0.121 3 -0.065 0.113 -0.101 4 -0.063 0.111 -0.100 0.024 5 -0.061 0.103 -0.091 0.019 -0.073 6 -0.049 0.100 -0.077 0.003 -0.063 0.162 7 -0.042 0.098 -0.077 -0.001 -0.059 0.160 -0.044 8 -0.040 0.090 -0.074 -0.001 -0.055 0.155 -0.041 0.050 9 -0.041 0.090 -0.076 0.000 -0.055 0.156 -0.043 0.050 0.018 10 -0.040 0.092 -0.077 0.004 -0.056 0.156 -0.045 0.053 0.017 -0.024 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2707.67 2706.52 2702.55 2700.41 2702.17 2702.01 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2693.29 2694.53 2695.53 2697.39 2699.16 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.065 0.113 -0.101 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.24 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.35 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.065 0.118 -0.116 0.028 -0.027 0.017 -0.007 0.005 -0.003 0.0015 -0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 685211 3 0.069 0.135 0.186 -0.004 2 685212 3 0.111 0.047 0.309 0.035 3 685231 3 0.036 -0.054 0.140 -0.059 4 685232 3 0.042 -0.007 0.127 -0.105 5 685241 3 0.117 0.204 0.199 -0.037 6 685242 3 0.050 0.034 0.170 0.021 7 685251 3 0.053 -0.009 0.226 0.011 8 685252 3 0.055 0.000 0.201 0.018 9 685261 3 0.088 0.172 0.208 -0.031 10 685262 3 0.095 0.138 0.236 0.035 11 685271 3 0.200 0.188 0.313 0.024 12 685272 3 0.071 0.074 0.225 0.019 13 685281 3 0.111 0.122 0.247 0.046 14 685282 3 0.165 0.159 0.307 0.047 15 685291 3 0.069 0.131 0.191 0.029 16 685292 3 0.065 0.122 0.192 0.012 17 685301 3 0.096 0.085 0.234 0.093 18 685302 3 0.162 0.140 0.263 0.123 19 685311 3 0.105 0.204 0.207 -0.071 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 685321 3 0.240 0.273 0.271 0.053 21 685322 3 0.154 0.301 0.156 -0.011 22 685332 3 0.045 0.096 0.163 -0.110 23 685341 3 0.113 0.177 0.231 0.013 24 685342 3 0.321 0.277 0.267 0.139 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.110 0.125 0.220 0.012 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.069 0.093 0.051 0.061 MEDIAN 3 0.095 0.133 0.216 0.019 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.075 0.122 0.067 0.062 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.036 -0.054 0.127 -0.110 LOWER HINGE 3 0.060 0.060 0.189 -0.021 UPPER HINGE 3 0.135 0.183 0.255 0.040 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.321 0.301 0.313 0.139 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 685211 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.094 -0.143 2.962 0.105 -0.001 2 685212 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.094 -0.243 3.376 0.106 -0.003 3 685231 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.108 -0.551 3.165 0.125 0.002 4 685232 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.122 -0.372 2.802 0.138 0.009 5 685241 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.089 -0.199 3.434 0.100 0.007 6 685242 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.097 -0.442 3.285 0.109 -0.003 7 685251 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.102 -0.417 3.108 0.120 -0.002 8 685252 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.113 -0.065 2.866 0.127 -0.002 9 685261 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.098 -0.214 3.358 0.109 0.000 10 685262 1769 1971 203 1.000 0.078 -0.261 3.543 0.084 -0.001 11 685271 1693 1983 291 1.000 0.092 -0.096 2.761 0.104 -0.003 12 685272 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.107 -0.222 3.365 0.124 -0.003 13 685281 1651 1983 333 1.000 0.097 -0.376 3.057 0.111 -0.006 14 685282 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.085 -0.291 3.060 0.095 -0.004 15 685291 1618 1983 366 1.000 0.102 -0.216 2.756 0.115 -0.002 16 685292 1645 1983 339 1.000 0.089 -0.378 3.065 0.102 -0.001 17 685301 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.092 -0.914 4.357 0.103 -0.009 18 685302 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.101 -0.355 3.580 0.113 -0.016 19 685311 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.110 -0.325 3.360 0.122 0.007 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 685321 1628 1983 356 1.000 0.094 -0.523 3.496 0.105 -0.006 21 685322 1653 1983 331 1.000 0.107 -0.006 2.850 0.122 0.000 22 685332 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.105 -0.643 3.797 0.117 0.002 23 685341 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.100 -0.239 2.967 0.114 -0.002 24 685342 1581 1983 403 1.000 0.090 -0.211 3.166 0.102 -0.023 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 279 1.000 0.099 -0.321 3.231 0.111 -0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.000 0.010 0.199 0.370 0.012 0.007 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 1.000 0.098 -0.276 3.166 0.110 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.000 0.014 0.185 0.440 0.018 0.004 MINIMUM VALUE 162 1.000 0.078 -0.914 2.756 0.084 -0.023 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.092 -0.398 2.965 0.104 -0.004 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 1.000 0.106 -0.212 3.405 0.121 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 403 1.000 0.122 -0.006 4.357 0.138 0.009 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.606 0.091 0.005 -0.317 3.115 0.351 0.845 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.351 SERIES 685262 AND 685341 203 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.845 SERIES 685281 AND 685282 333 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.69 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 1. 10. 36. 66. 91. 105. 105. 190. 253. 276. RBAR 0.822 0.724 0.650 0.633 0.686 0.615 0.577 0.642 0.677 0.661 SDEV 0.000 0.082 0.074 0.159 0.097 0.104 0.154 0.149 0.109 0.115 SERR 0.000 0.026 0.012 0.020 0.010 0.010 0.015 0.011 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.961 0.956 0.956 0.960 0.970 0.964 0.965 0.976 0.980 0.979 NSS 5.3 8.3 11.7 14.1 14.7 16.9 20.5 22.9 23.9 24.0 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.625 0.559 0.525 SDEV 0.136 0.165 0.155 SERR 0.008 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.976 0.968 0.964 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 0.998 0.078 -0.586 3.562 0.092 -0.129 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.005 -0.002 0.056 99 304 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.45 1.00 1.06 1.52 32.74 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.128 -0.062 -0.080 -0.001 -0.033 0.150 -0.045 0.060 -0.031 -0.011 PACF -0.128 -0.080 -0.101 -0.033 -0.054 0.131 -0.015 0.072 0.006 -0.006 95% C.L. 0.100 0.101 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.034 -0.147 -0.095 -0.103 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 -0.008 0.006 -0.029 -0.024 0.143 -0.020 0.066 -0.005 -0.017 PACF -0.004 -0.008 0.005 -0.029 -0.024 0.143 -0.020 0.068 -0.009 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.001 -0.004 -0.008 0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1581 1983 403 0.998 0.078 -0.618 3.580 0.091 -0.092 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.092 0.125 -0.132 0.025 -0.070 0.168 -0.045 0.092 -0.038 0.016 PACF -0.092 0.117 -0.114 -0.009 -0.042 0.149 -0.012 0.045 0.011 -0.007 95% C.L. 0.100 0.100 0.102 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.107 0.107 0.108 0.108 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.035 -0.068 0.108 -0.115 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.28 MINUTES