RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: UT512I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: UT512I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 689 1 Hidden Peak, Wasatch Mtn DENSITY_EARLY PCEN - 689 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3150 4034-11138 1511 1983 689 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 689022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1979 1979 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 689112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1811 1811 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 689011 1511 1983 473 2.976 0.218 1.067 7.562 0.043 0.685 2 689012 1511 1983 473 2.984 0.178 1.951 16.038 0.041 0.550 3 689021 1713 1983 271 3.000 0.242 0.836 4.042 0.047 0.669 4 689022 1729 1981 253 3.398 0.559 3.079 15.465 0.053 0.843 5 689031 1766 1983 218 3.797 0.362 0.223 3.543 0.051 0.694 6 689032 1663 1983 321 3.550 0.333 0.896 4.614 0.049 0.747 7 689051 1697 1983 287 2.950 0.217 1.832 13.363 0.047 0.519 8 689052 1675 1983 309 3.066 0.295 1.886 11.153 0.045 0.684 9 689061 1768 1983 216 3.562 0.442 1.262 4.771 0.049 0.795 10 689062 1777 1983 207 3.560 0.430 1.396 5.201 0.053 0.805 11 689081 1706 1983 278 3.720 0.512 1.648 6.077 0.053 0.785 12 689082 1749 1983 235 3.636 0.426 2.565 10.166 0.052 0.680 13 689091 1768 1983 216 3.773 0.226 0.530 3.235 0.035 0.710 14 689092 1800 1983 184 3.446 0.134 0.334 3.588 0.032 0.412 15 689101 1603 1983 381 2.888 0.219 1.718 9.665 0.046 0.601 16 689102 1623 1983 361 2.944 0.220 0.222 2.727 0.045 0.685 17 689111 1733 1983 251 3.136 0.237 1.042 4.858 0.052 0.595 18 689112 1794 1983 190 3.300 0.237 1.220 7.096 0.052 0.405 19 689121 1723 1983 261 3.426 0.368 2.670 11.822 0.047 0.645 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 689122 1781 1983 203 3.239 0.163 0.770 4.339 0.036 0.619 21 689131 1552 1983 432 3.294 0.183 0.159 3.015 0.040 0.560 22 689132 1534 1983 450 3.253 0.218 0.576 4.239 0.042 0.620 23 689151 1806 1983 178 2.935 0.183 1.262 5.480 0.044 0.485 24 689152 1820 1983 164 2.757 0.201 0.659 3.513 0.041 0.626 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1511 TO 1983 473 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 284 3.275 0.284 1.242 6.899 0.046 0.642 STANDARD DEVIATION 96 0.311 0.117 0.802 4.069 0.006 0.115 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 256 3.273 0.231 1.143 5.030 0.046 0.657 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 129 0.575 0.156 1.158 6.101 0.010 0.124 MINIMUM VALUE 164 2.757 0.134 0.159 2.727 0.032 0.405 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 2.980 0.209 0.617 3.815 0.042 0.578 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 341 3.555 0.365 1.775 9.916 0.051 0.702 MAXIMUM VALUE 473 3.797 0.559 3.079 16.038 0.053 0.843 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.167 0.215 0.013 -0.070 2.930 -0.439 0.791 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.439 SERIES 689021 AND 689062 207 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.791 SERIES 689031 AND 689032 218 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1536. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. CORR 1. 3. 6. 6. 10. 15. 21. 28. 55. 91. RBAR 0.733 0.333 0.390 0.455 0.241 0.260 0.246 0.296 0.333 0.207 SDEV 0.000 0.245 0.146 0.260 0.340 0.267 0.234 0.232 0.190 0.286 SERR 0.000 0.141 0.059 0.106 0.107 0.069 0.051 0.044 0.026 0.030 EPS 0.882 0.658 0.735 0.815 0.659 0.712 0.742 0.827 0.875 0.818 NSS 2.7 3.9 4.3 5.3 6.1 7.0 8.8 11.4 14.1 17.2 YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 153. 210. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.191 0.144 0.272 0.236 0.241 0.220 0.237 SDEV 0.280 0.254 0.198 0.226 0.209 0.272 0.237 SERR 0.023 0.018 0.012 0.014 0.013 0.016 0.014 EPS 0.831 0.796 0.900 0.881 0.884 0.871 0.881 NSS 20.8 23.2 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1511 1983 473 3.172 0.141 -0.015 3.281 0.032 0.538 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.572 0.589 -1.546 135 338 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.36 1.16 1.00 1.09 2.25 16.83 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.55 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 257. 130. 164. 212. 341. 473. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.537 0.455 0.479 0.482 0.443 0.444 0.412 0.452 0.457 0.371 PACF 0.537 0.234 0.247 0.189 0.100 0.111 0.039 0.132 0.103 -0.050 95% C.L. 0.092 0.115 0.130 0.144 0.157 0.167 0.177 0.185 0.194 0.203 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.407 0.277 0.069 0.150 0.150 0.069 0.114 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 689011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014802 3.01119184 2 689012 1 0.07142826 0.00189145 0.00000000 2.93699288 3 689021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00104375 2.85827136 4 689022 1 1.44916213 0.03251563 0.00000000 3.22786379 5 689031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00407119 4.24235439 6 689032 1 1.12424302 0.00463092 0.00000000 2.96626067 7 689051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00089013 3.07824779 8 689052 1 0.80764234 0.01896135 0.00000000 2.93010020 9 689061 1 1.43858409 0.01336314 0.00000000 3.09437513 10 689062 1 1.41347671 0.02643817 0.00000000 3.30645204 11 689081 1 1.33192873 0.02301466 0.00000000 3.51470518 12 689082 1 0.72119653 0.05342949 0.00000000 3.58004069 13 689091 1 0.55564594 0.05075806 0.00000000 3.72309685 14 689092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00022726 3.42457581 15 689101 1 1.17375553 0.09085885 0.00000000 2.85566854 16 689102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00066420 2.82351947 17 689111 1 0.58553046 0.06264081 0.00000000 3.10028911 18 689112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00075543 3.37331080 19 689121 1 1.27831650 0.02867775 0.00000000 3.25795817 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 689122 1 0.36538127 0.00247267 0.00000000 2.95197272 21 689131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00035468 3.37030625 22 689132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00059987 3.38813710 23 689151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019391 2.91725183 24 689152 1 0.53417689 0.02397733 0.00000000 2.62579179 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 689011 1511 1983 473 1.000 0.073 1.269 8.565 0.043 0.680 2 689012 1511 1983 473 1.000 0.060 2.061 17.030 0.041 0.548 3 689021 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.076 0.885 3.984 0.047 0.626 4 689022 1729 1981 253 1.000 0.128 2.066 8.594 0.053 0.767 5 689031 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.067 1.638 7.715 0.051 0.386 6 689032 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.062 0.714 4.113 0.049 0.434 7 689051 1697 1983 287 1.000 0.068 1.650 11.363 0.047 0.461 8 689052 1675 1983 309 1.000 0.070 0.486 5.468 0.045 0.499 9 689061 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.067 1.105 5.839 0.049 0.415 10 689062 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.074 1.011 4.129 0.052 0.505 11 689081 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.113 3.057 15.382 0.053 0.713 12 689082 1749 1983 235 1.000 0.112 2.965 12.657 0.052 0.665 13 689091 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.053 0.397 2.741 0.035 0.623 14 689092 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.039 0.352 3.514 0.032 0.407 15 689101 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.060 0.585 2.947 0.046 0.480 16 689102 1623 1983 361 1.000 0.071 0.434 3.013 0.044 0.652 17 689111 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.070 1.268 6.298 0.052 0.520 18 689112 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.070 1.042 6.311 0.053 0.429 19 689121 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.066 3.082 18.635 0.046 0.259 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 689122 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.048 0.453 3.917 0.036 0.580 21 689131 1552 1983 432 1.000 0.054 0.281 3.070 0.040 0.530 22 689132 1534 1983 450 1.000 0.063 0.939 5.860 0.042 0.565 23 689151 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.062 1.217 5.387 0.044 0.481 24 689152 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.055 1.283 7.361 0.041 0.361 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 284 1.000 0.070 1.260 7.245 0.046 0.524 STANDARD DEVIATION 96 0.000 0.020 0.851 4.584 0.006 0.123 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 257 1.000 0.067 1.074 5.849 0.046 0.512 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 129 0.000 0.012 1.108 4.629 0.010 0.193 MINIMUM VALUE 164 1.000 0.039 0.281 2.741 0.032 0.259 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.060 0.535 3.951 0.042 0.431 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 341 1.000 0.072 1.644 8.579 0.051 0.624 MAXIMUM VALUE 473 1.000 0.128 3.082 18.635 0.053 0.767 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 689011 -67 316 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 689012 -67 316 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 689021 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 689022 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 689031 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 689032 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 689051 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 689052 -67 207 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 689061 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 689062 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 689081 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 689082 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 689091 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 689092 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 689101 -67 255 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 689102 -67 241 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 689111 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 689112 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 689121 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 689122 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 689131 -67 289 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 689132 -67 301 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 689151 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 689152 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 689011 1511 1983 473 1.000 0.070 1.527 10.178 0.043 0.647 2 689012 1511 1983 473 1.000 0.059 2.048 16.959 0.041 0.535 3 689021 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.067 0.715 3.597 0.047 0.556 4 689022 1729 1981 253 0.999 0.121 2.028 9.184 0.053 0.748 5 689031 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.060 1.475 7.416 0.051 0.238 6 689032 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.055 0.895 4.772 0.049 0.299 7 689051 1697 1983 287 1.000 0.064 1.683 12.292 0.047 0.393 8 689052 1675 1983 309 1.000 0.064 0.869 7.254 0.045 0.389 9 689061 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.059 1.485 8.682 0.049 0.256 10 689062 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.062 1.270 5.441 0.053 0.273 11 689081 1706 1983 278 0.999 0.102 2.777 14.582 0.053 0.659 12 689082 1749 1983 235 1.000 0.106 2.809 11.759 0.051 0.627 13 689091 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.043 0.649 3.353 0.035 0.413 14 689092 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.038 0.363 3.562 0.032 0.385 15 689101 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.055 0.626 3.235 0.046 0.371 16 689102 1623 1983 361 1.000 0.057 0.467 3.767 0.044 0.457 17 689111 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.063 1.172 6.580 0.052 0.427 18 689112 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.062 2.127 13.196 0.053 0.262 19 689121 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.066 3.086 18.898 0.046 0.257 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 689122 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.044 0.314 3.606 0.036 0.494 21 689131 1552 1983 432 1.000 0.049 0.517 3.606 0.040 0.413 22 689132 1534 1983 450 1.000 0.058 0.984 6.036 0.042 0.489 23 689151 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.055 0.990 4.723 0.044 0.343 24 689152 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.053 1.332 7.500 0.041 0.320 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 284 1.000 0.064 1.342 7.924 0.046 0.427 STANDARD DEVIATION 96 0.000 0.019 0.796 4.583 0.006 0.143 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 257 1.000 0.060 1.221 6.917 0.046 0.403 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 129 0.000 0.010 1.173 7.282 0.010 0.205 MINIMUM VALUE 164 0.999 0.038 0.314 3.235 0.032 0.238 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.055 0.682 3.687 0.042 0.309 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 341 1.000 0.065 1.855 10.969 0.051 0.514 MAXIMUM VALUE 473 1.000 0.121 3.086 18.898 0.053 0.748 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.186 0.126 0.008 0.277 3.422 -0.138 0.613 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.138 SERIES 689012 AND 689081 278 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.613 SERIES 689081 AND 689082 235 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1536. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. CORR 1. 3. 6. 6. 10. 15. 21. 28. 55. 91. RBAR 0.732 0.310 0.409 0.449 0.285 0.263 0.284 0.332 0.333 0.193 SDEV 0.000 0.268 0.159 0.250 0.325 0.237 0.238 0.216 0.172 0.215 SERR 0.000 0.155 0.065 0.102 0.103 0.061 0.052 0.041 0.023 0.023 EPS 0.882 0.634 0.750 0.811 0.708 0.715 0.777 0.850 0.876 0.805 NSS 2.7 3.9 4.3 5.3 6.1 7.0 8.8 11.4 14.1 17.2 YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 153. 210. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.128 0.189 0.267 0.247 0.245 0.236 0.243 SDEV 0.237 0.233 0.184 0.214 0.205 0.224 0.205 SERR 0.019 0.016 0.011 0.013 0.012 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.754 0.843 0.897 0.887 0.886 0.881 0.885 NSS 20.8 23.2 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1511 1983 473 0.996 0.032 0.330 3.570 0.031 0.234 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.277 0.162 -0.117 162 311 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.51 1.68 1.00 1.14 2.83 108.15 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.12 0.52 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.234 0.065 0.071 0.064 0.024 0.034 0.068 0.131 0.142 0.031 PACF 0.234 0.011 0.057 0.036 -0.002 0.024 0.052 0.106 0.091 -0.034 95% C.L. 0.092 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.100 0.102 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.056 0.236 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.237 0.083 0.011 0.046 0.022 0.046 0.052 0.089 0.061 0.034 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.237 2 0.230 0.029 3 0.230 0.032 -0.015 4 0.231 0.031 -0.026 0.047 5 0.231 0.031 -0.026 0.046 0.002 6 0.231 0.029 -0.025 0.045 -0.007 0.038 7 0.230 0.029 -0.027 0.046 -0.008 0.030 0.035 8 0.227 0.027 -0.026 0.043 -0.006 0.028 0.019 0.068 9 0.226 0.027 -0.027 0.043 -0.007 0.028 0.018 0.063 0.023 10 0.225 0.027 -0.027 0.043 -0.007 0.028 0.019 0.063 0.022 0.005 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2271.78 2246.51 2248.12 2250.00 2250.96 2252.96 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2254.28 2255.71 2255.51 2257.26 2259.24 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.237 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.60 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 105.93 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.237 0.056 0.013 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 689011 1 0.492 0.677 2 689012 1 0.307 0.535 3 689021 1 0.328 0.568 4 689022 1 0.577 0.755 5 689031 1 0.059 0.238 6 689032 1 0.124 0.300 7 689051 1 0.180 0.394 8 689052 1 0.170 0.389 9 689061 1 0.074 0.258 10 689062 1 0.085 0.283 11 689081 1 0.454 0.662 12 689082 1 0.397 0.629 13 689091 1 0.205 0.416 14 689092 1 0.155 0.392 15 689101 1 0.152 0.376 16 689102 1 0.267 0.458 17 689111 1 0.201 0.433 18 689112 1 0.114 0.263 19 689121 1 0.075 0.270 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 689122 1 0.256 0.499 21 689131 1 0.183 0.416 22 689132 1 0.293 0.490 23 689151 1 0.134 0.344 24 689152 1 0.176 0.323 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.227 0.432 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.139 0.145 MEDIAN 1 0.182 0.405 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.171 0.206 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.059 0.238 LOWER HINGE 1 0.129 0.311 UPPER HINGE 1 0.300 0.517 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.577 0.755 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 689011 1511 1983 473 1.000 0.051 0.586 5.242 0.060 -0.131 2 689012 1511 1983 473 1.000 0.050 2.191 23.140 0.054 -0.091 3 689021 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.055 0.720 4.722 0.061 -0.055 4 689022 1729 1981 253 1.000 0.079 2.136 12.249 0.073 0.093 5 689031 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.058 1.213 6.640 0.056 0.011 6 689032 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.053 0.952 4.909 0.058 -0.058 7 689051 1697 1983 287 1.000 0.059 2.098 16.291 0.057 -0.066 8 689052 1675 1983 309 1.000 0.059 1.615 10.938 0.054 -0.057 9 689061 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.057 1.612 10.143 0.054 0.022 10 689062 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.059 1.298 6.370 0.060 -0.014 11 689081 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.076 2.498 17.223 0.075 -0.111 12 689082 1749 1983 235 1.000 0.082 2.784 14.587 0.069 0.030 13 689091 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.039 0.226 3.427 0.044 -0.084 14 689092 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.035 0.414 3.522 0.038 -0.007 15 689101 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.051 0.543 3.422 0.055 -0.041 16 689102 1623 1983 361 1.000 0.050 0.431 4.406 0.056 -0.123 17 689111 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.057 1.083 6.545 0.064 -0.050 18 689112 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.060 2.359 14.641 0.060 -0.057 19 689121 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.063 2.928 19.669 0.053 0.020 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 689122 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.038 -0.001 2.811 0.044 -0.047 21 689131 1552 1983 432 1.000 0.044 0.639 4.766 0.048 -0.042 22 689132 1534 1983 450 1.000 0.050 0.971 8.025 0.055 -0.128 23 689151 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.051 1.075 5.679 0.053 -0.047 24 689152 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.050 1.878 12.433 0.049 -0.091 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 284 1.000 0.055 1.344 9.242 0.056 -0.047 STANDARD DEVIATION 96 0.000 0.012 0.850 5.796 0.009 0.055 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 257 1.000 0.054 1.148 6.592 0.055 -0.052 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 129 0.000 0.009 1.504 8.766 0.007 0.077 MINIMUM VALUE 164 1.000 0.035 -0.001 2.811 0.038 -0.131 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.050 0.613 4.744 0.053 -0.087 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 341 1.000 0.059 2.117 13.510 0.060 -0.010 MAXIMUM VALUE 473 1.000 0.082 2.928 23.140 0.075 0.093 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.254 0.108 0.006 0.460 3.093 0.025 0.575 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.025 SERIES 689022 AND 689132 253 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.575 SERIES 689031 AND 689032 218 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1536. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. CORR 1. 3. 6. 6. 10. 15. 21. 28. 55. 91. RBAR 0.698 0.273 0.514 0.571 0.439 0.391 0.366 0.390 0.369 0.185 SDEV 0.000 0.401 0.201 0.201 0.212 0.190 0.171 0.157 0.145 0.185 SERR 0.000 0.232 0.082 0.082 0.067 0.049 0.037 0.030 0.020 0.019 EPS 0.863 0.592 0.821 0.875 0.826 0.819 0.835 0.879 0.892 0.797 NSS 2.7 3.9 4.3 5.3 6.1 7.0 8.8 11.4 14.1 17.2 YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 153. 210. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.129 0.266 0.348 0.305 0.310 0.324 0.335 SDEV 0.201 0.208 0.166 0.151 0.157 0.170 0.167 SERR 0.016 0.014 0.010 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.755 0.894 0.928 0.913 0.915 0.920 0.924 NSS 20.8 23.2 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1511 1983 473 0.997 0.031 0.184 3.627 0.037 -0.203 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.223 0.113 -0.076 156 317 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.42 1.42 1.00 1.13 2.55 63.30 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.20 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.202 -0.068 -0.005 0.045 -0.014 0.008 -0.018 0.072 0.103 -0.032 PACF -0.202 -0.113 -0.046 0.027 -0.002 0.012 -0.014 0.069 0.141 0.038 95% C.L. 0.092 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.098 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.056 -0.227 -0.115 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.025 -0.118 -0.011 0.044 -0.004 0.001 -0.003 0.096 0.122 -0.027 PACF -0.025 -0.118 -0.017 0.030 -0.005 0.010 -0.003 0.097 0.130 0.003 95% C.L. 0.092 0.092 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.094 0.096 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.015 -0.025 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1511 1983 473 0.997 0.031 0.243 3.575 0.031 0.183 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.182 -0.071 -0.017 0.039 0.007 0.008 0.027 0.124 0.139 -0.004 PACF 0.182 -0.108 0.018 0.032 -0.009 0.016 0.023 0.120 0.102 -0.031 95% C.L. 0.092 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.099 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.046 0.204 -0.109 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.29 MINUTES