RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: UT512T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: UT512T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 689 1 Hidden Peak, Wasatch Mtn DENSITY_LATE PCEN - 689 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3150 4034-11138 1511 1983 689 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 689022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1979 1979 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 689112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1811 1811 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 689011 1511 1983 473 4.828 0.631 0.389 2.715 0.084 0.627 2 689012 1511 1983 473 5.418 0.611 -0.175 3.031 0.100 0.385 3 689021 1713 1983 271 5.060 0.623 0.165 2.853 0.092 0.550 4 689022 1729 1981 253 5.994 0.638 0.734 4.825 0.062 0.721 5 689031 1766 1983 218 6.135 0.718 -0.286 2.551 0.067 0.746 6 689032 1663 1983 321 5.666 0.769 -0.204 2.199 0.056 0.853 7 689051 1697 1983 287 5.100 0.499 -0.038 2.357 0.077 0.517 8 689052 1675 1983 309 5.231 0.578 -0.178 2.968 0.055 0.770 9 689061 1768 1983 216 5.952 0.458 -0.212 2.961 0.061 0.510 10 689062 1777 1983 207 6.113 0.565 -0.352 3.099 0.075 0.481 11 689081 1706 1983 278 5.993 0.625 0.460 4.116 0.067 0.660 12 689082 1749 1983 235 6.287 0.534 0.234 4.800 0.058 0.601 13 689091 1768 1983 216 6.373 0.749 -0.053 2.599 0.066 0.680 14 689092 1800 1983 184 6.462 0.636 -0.649 2.783 0.065 0.628 15 689101 1603 1983 381 5.107 0.553 0.091 2.765 0.065 0.698 16 689102 1623 1983 361 5.452 0.624 -0.261 2.596 0.058 0.784 17 689111 1733 1983 251 5.609 0.566 -0.128 2.958 0.085 0.488 18 689112 1794 1983 190 5.835 0.639 -0.173 4.081 0.086 0.459 19 689121 1723 1983 261 6.124 0.483 -0.899 4.406 0.069 0.372 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 689122 1781 1983 203 6.088 0.496 -0.569 3.634 0.071 0.367 21 689131 1552 1983 432 5.397 0.486 -0.323 2.896 0.082 0.295 22 689132 1534 1983 450 5.653 0.743 -0.179 2.061 0.079 0.707 23 689151 1806 1983 178 5.461 0.347 -0.493 3.556 0.063 0.228 24 689152 1820 1983 164 5.161 0.336 -0.377 3.322 0.067 0.132 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1511 TO 1983 473 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 284 5.688 0.580 -0.145 3.172 0.071 0.553 STANDARD DEVIATION 96 0.467 0.113 0.363 0.773 0.012 0.187 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 256 5.660 0.594 -0.178 2.960 0.067 0.575 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 129 0.786 0.140 0.364 0.938 0.018 0.281 MINIMUM VALUE 164 4.828 0.336 -0.899 2.061 0.055 0.132 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 5.314 0.498 -0.338 2.657 0.063 0.422 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 341 6.101 0.637 0.026 3.595 0.080 0.703 MAXIMUM VALUE 473 6.462 0.769 0.734 4.825 0.100 0.853 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.198 0.196 0.012 -0.151 2.649 -0.341 0.662 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.341 SERIES 689031 AND 689092 184 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.662 SERIES 689131 AND 689132 432 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1536. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. CORR 1. 3. 6. 6. 10. 15. 21. 28. 55. 91. RBAR 0.520 0.499 0.540 0.558 0.441 0.563 0.320 0.296 0.255 0.331 SDEV 0.000 0.196 0.123 0.173 0.284 0.133 0.184 0.202 0.271 0.218 SERR 0.000 0.113 0.050 0.070 0.090 0.034 0.040 0.038 0.037 0.023 EPS 0.747 0.793 0.836 0.869 0.827 0.901 0.805 0.827 0.828 0.895 NSS 2.7 3.9 4.3 5.3 6.1 7.0 8.8 11.4 14.1 17.2 YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 153. 210. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.193 0.248 0.299 0.270 0.247 0.253 0.391 SDEV 0.253 0.265 0.231 0.263 0.245 0.250 0.231 SERR 0.020 0.018 0.014 0.016 0.015 0.015 0.014 EPS 0.833 0.884 0.911 0.899 0.887 0.890 0.939 NSS 20.8 23.2 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1511 1983 473 5.560 0.381 -0.594 3.686 0.060 0.303 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.005 0.003 0.608 87 386 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.56 1.00 1.06 1.62 22.73 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.50 0.87 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 257. 130. 164. 212. 341. 473. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.303 0.372 0.346 0.308 0.315 0.313 0.273 0.256 0.274 0.282 PACF 0.303 0.309 0.213 0.122 0.115 0.108 0.047 0.021 0.060 0.080 95% C.L. 0.092 0.100 0.111 0.120 0.126 0.133 0.139 0.143 0.147 0.152 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.248 0.092 0.203 0.152 0.083 0.100 0.107 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 689011 1 1.09127474 0.01181056 0.00000000 4.63430882 2 689012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023027 5.36341715 3 689021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00395119 4.52260113 4 689022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00296825 6.36682844 5 689031 1 1.58056068 0.01481794 0.00000000 5.66892529 6 689032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00599379 6.63144875 7 689051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00258243 5.47148609 8 689052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00100056 5.07578659 9 689061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00383208 6.36800241 10 689062 1 1.09261453 0.04629436 0.00000000 6.00151062 11 689081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00165238 5.76265812 12 689082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00066676 6.20796061 13 689091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00379392 5.96150732 14 689092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00363766 6.12574482 15 689101 1 1.41112351 0.01558949 0.00000000 4.87157011 16 689102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00122409 5.23032379 17 689111 1 0.71299118 0.03098652 0.00000000 5.51918077 18 689112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00187047 6.01123142 19 689121 1 0.57053673 0.02315040 0.00000000 6.03072119 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 689122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00125500 5.96021700 21 689131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00044670 5.49397898 22 689132 1 1.14748311 0.01404325 0.00000000 5.47307444 23 689151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00062722 5.40532494 24 689152 1 0.41928673 0.03425861 0.00000000 5.08825350 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 689011 1511 1983 473 1.000 0.120 0.617 3.742 0.084 0.560 2 689012 1511 1983 473 1.000 0.113 -0.179 3.037 0.100 0.382 3 689021 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.107 0.025 3.294 0.092 0.413 4 689022 1729 1981 253 1.000 0.099 0.284 3.628 0.062 0.675 5 689031 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.099 -0.132 3.100 0.067 0.617 6 689032 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.095 0.077 2.551 0.056 0.709 7 689051 1697 1983 287 1.000 0.089 0.168 3.383 0.076 0.404 8 689052 1675 1983 309 1.000 0.109 -0.319 3.168 0.055 0.759 9 689061 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.066 0.150 3.141 0.061 0.321 10 689062 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.086 -0.429 3.300 0.075 0.387 11 689081 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.101 0.344 4.053 0.067 0.639 12 689082 1749 1983 235 1.000 0.085 0.250 4.712 0.057 0.596 13 689091 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.113 0.343 4.164 0.066 0.652 14 689092 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.094 -0.621 2.860 0.064 0.583 15 689101 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.089 0.058 3.077 0.065 0.550 16 689102 1623 1983 361 1.000 0.113 -0.072 2.756 0.058 0.778 17 689111 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.098 0.043 3.193 0.085 0.447 18 689112 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.108 -0.147 3.856 0.088 0.427 19 689121 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.076 -0.911 4.457 0.069 0.320 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 689122 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.081 -0.506 3.351 0.071 0.361 21 689131 1552 1983 432 1.000 0.089 -0.334 2.946 0.082 0.284 22 689132 1534 1983 450 1.000 0.124 -0.025 2.374 0.079 0.671 23 689151 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.063 -0.569 3.596 0.063 0.220 24 689152 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.063 -0.268 3.249 0.067 0.060 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 284 1.000 0.095 -0.090 3.374 0.071 0.492 STANDARD DEVIATION 96 0.000 0.017 0.359 0.570 0.012 0.184 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 257 1.000 0.097 -0.048 3.272 0.067 0.499 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 129 0.000 0.023 0.485 0.628 0.018 0.274 MINIMUM VALUE 164 1.000 0.063 -0.911 2.374 0.055 0.060 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.085 -0.326 3.057 0.062 0.371 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 341 1.000 0.108 0.159 3.685 0.080 0.646 MAXIMUM VALUE 473 1.000 0.124 0.617 4.712 0.100 0.778 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 689011 -67 316 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 689012 -67 316 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 689021 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 689022 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 689031 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 689032 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 689051 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 689052 -67 207 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 689061 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 689062 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 689081 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 689082 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 689091 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 689092 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 689101 -67 255 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 689102 -67 241 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 689111 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 689112 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 689121 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 689122 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 689131 -67 289 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 689132 -67 301 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 689151 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 689152 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 689011 1511 1983 473 0.999 0.107 0.231 3.011 0.084 0.473 2 689012 1511 1983 473 1.000 0.101 -0.336 3.376 0.100 0.247 3 689021 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.100 -0.272 3.262 0.092 0.333 4 689022 1729 1981 253 1.000 0.094 0.272 3.511 0.062 0.636 5 689031 1766 1983 218 0.999 0.084 -0.006 3.443 0.067 0.478 6 689032 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.090 0.015 2.412 0.056 0.670 7 689051 1697 1983 287 1.000 0.085 0.095 3.411 0.076 0.353 8 689052 1675 1983 309 0.999 0.089 -0.129 3.438 0.055 0.647 9 689061 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.063 0.030 3.006 0.061 0.247 10 689062 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.081 -0.510 3.313 0.075 0.311 11 689081 1706 1983 278 0.999 0.091 0.104 3.824 0.067 0.556 12 689082 1749 1983 235 1.000 0.081 0.185 4.429 0.057 0.562 13 689091 1768 1983 216 0.999 0.085 -0.285 3.697 0.065 0.409 14 689092 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.072 -0.753 3.562 0.064 0.321 15 689101 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.080 -0.057 2.996 0.065 0.460 16 689102 1623 1983 361 0.999 0.084 -0.293 2.914 0.058 0.604 17 689111 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.087 -0.264 3.089 0.085 0.301 18 689112 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.092 0.125 6.294 0.087 0.201 19 689121 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.070 -1.171 5.688 0.069 0.190 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 689122 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.072 -0.311 3.092 0.071 0.219 21 689131 1552 1983 432 1.000 0.086 -0.359 3.149 0.082 0.223 22 689132 1534 1983 450 0.999 0.108 0.051 2.522 0.079 0.568 23 689151 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.062 -0.603 3.671 0.063 0.196 24 689152 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.061 -0.307 3.341 0.067 0.010 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 284 1.000 0.084 -0.189 3.519 0.071 0.384 STANDARD DEVIATION 96 0.000 0.013 0.340 0.871 0.012 0.179 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 257 1.000 0.085 -0.196 3.358 0.067 0.343 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 129 0.000 0.015 0.397 0.567 0.018 0.324 MINIMUM VALUE 164 0.999 0.061 -1.171 2.412 0.055 0.010 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 0.999 0.076 -0.324 3.050 0.062 0.235 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 341 1.000 0.092 0.073 3.617 0.080 0.559 MAXIMUM VALUE 473 1.000 0.108 0.272 6.294 0.100 0.670 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.273 0.138 0.008 0.079 2.887 -0.106 0.693 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.106 SERIES 689022 AND 689082 233 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.693 SERIES 689131 AND 689132 432 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1536. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. CORR 1. 3. 6. 6. 10. 15. 21. 28. 55. 91. RBAR 0.488 0.468 0.588 0.558 0.451 0.467 0.298 0.300 0.276 0.383 SDEV 0.000 0.223 0.109 0.195 0.257 0.146 0.178 0.209 0.244 0.180 SERR 0.000 0.129 0.044 0.079 0.081 0.038 0.039 0.040 0.033 0.019 EPS 0.722 0.772 0.861 0.870 0.833 0.860 0.789 0.830 0.843 0.915 NSS 2.7 3.9 4.3 5.3 6.1 7.0 8.8 11.4 14.1 17.2 YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 153. 210. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.194 0.246 0.305 0.287 0.258 0.278 0.419 SDEV 0.227 0.245 0.230 0.244 0.241 0.218 0.206 SERR 0.018 0.017 0.014 0.015 0.014 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.833 0.883 0.913 0.906 0.893 0.902 0.945 NSS 20.8 23.2 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1511 1983 473 0.998 0.057 -0.585 3.824 0.059 0.094 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.054 -0.024 0.093 103 370 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.51 1.00 1.08 1.58 53.82 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.12 0.44 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.094 0.160 0.175 0.114 0.080 0.119 0.067 0.042 0.084 0.106 PACF 0.094 0.152 0.153 0.071 0.022 0.067 0.018 -0.009 0.039 0.074 95% C.L. 0.092 0.093 0.095 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.102 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.060 0.046 0.131 0.149 0.071 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.087 0.114 0.152 0.130 -0.033 0.106 0.054 0.070 0.042 0.088 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.087 2 0.077 0.107 3 0.063 0.097 0.136 4 0.049 0.087 0.130 0.102 5 0.057 0.097 0.137 0.106 -0.080 6 0.063 0.090 0.127 0.098 -0.084 0.073 7 0.061 0.092 0.124 0.095 -0.086 0.071 0.024 8 0.060 0.088 0.129 0.090 -0.093 0.066 0.021 0.055 9 0.059 0.087 0.128 0.092 -0.095 0.064 0.019 0.053 0.018 10 0.058 0.085 0.127 0.089 -0.091 0.060 0.014 0.050 0.016 0.044 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2721.52 2719.96 2716.47 2709.63 2706.72 2705.69 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2705.17 2706.90 2707.49 2709.33 2710.43 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 6 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.063 0.090 0.127 0.098 -0.084 0.073 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.82 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.18 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 6) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.063 0.094 0.138 0.123 -0.046 0.102 0.028 0.013 0.011 0.0284 -0.005 0.010 0.006 0.003 0.000 0.005 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.0008 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 689011 6 0.302 0.309 0.156 0.165 0.030 -0.012 0.065 2 689012 6 0.137 0.144 0.182 0.121 0.090 0.037 -0.018 3 689021 6 0.157 0.293 0.109 0.024 0.097 -0.102 0.030 4 689022 6 0.453 0.491 0.165 0.093 0.106 -0.166 0.037 5 689031 6 0.278 0.393 0.174 0.127 -0.126 -0.094 0.080 6 689032 6 0.480 0.536 0.057 0.098 0.116 -0.054 0.030 7 689051 6 0.225 0.222 0.111 0.100 0.097 -0.020 0.190 8 689052 6 0.507 0.512 -0.007 0.373 -0.124 0.011 0.034 9 689061 6 0.112 0.183 0.084 0.185 0.050 -0.005 -0.021 10 689062 6 0.166 0.244 0.168 0.110 0.003 -0.119 0.087 11 689081 6 0.372 0.398 0.136 0.141 0.076 -0.096 0.081 12 689082 6 0.362 0.437 0.149 0.164 -0.047 0.022 -0.117 13 689091 6 0.221 0.318 0.127 0.094 0.049 -0.067 0.106 14 689092 6 0.140 0.282 0.101 0.024 0.060 -0.037 0.040 15 689101 6 0.331 0.235 0.118 0.215 0.116 0.026 0.059 16 689102 6 0.428 0.421 0.179 -0.021 0.135 0.079 -0.015 17 689111 6 0.215 0.153 0.314 0.141 0.002 -0.039 0.034 18 689112 6 0.114 0.151 0.232 0.023 0.061 -0.119 -0.062 19 689121 6 0.074 0.149 0.086 0.096 0.076 -0.033 0.076 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 689122 6 0.141 0.192 0.163 0.008 0.180 -0.120 0.069 21 689131 6 0.178 0.071 0.163 0.116 0.146 0.077 0.101 22 689132 6 0.479 0.212 0.234 0.185 0.127 -0.012 0.105 23 689151 6 0.079 0.170 0.086 0.060 0.055 -0.053 0.001 24 689152 6 0.064 -0.024 0.147 0.160 0.106 -0.066 -0.081 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 6 0.251 0.271 0.143 0.117 0.062 -0.040 0.038 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.144 0.145 0.065 0.082 0.076 0.064 0.067 MEDIAN 6 0.218 0.239 0.148 0.113 0.076 -0.038 0.038 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.228 0.234 0.066 0.086 0.071 0.098 0.087 MINIMUM VALUE 6 0.064 -0.024 -0.007 -0.021 -0.126 -0.166 -0.117 LOWER HINGE 6 0.139 0.162 0.105 0.076 0.040 -0.095 -0.007 UPPER HINGE 6 0.367 0.396 0.171 0.162 0.111 0.003 0.080 MAXIMUM VALUE 6 0.507 0.536 0.314 0.373 0.180 0.079 0.190 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 689011 1511 1983 473 1.000 0.090 0.067 3.630 0.098 0.006 2 689012 1511 1983 473 1.000 0.094 -0.517 3.654 0.106 0.000 3 689021 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.093 -0.330 3.324 0.104 0.004 4 689022 1729 1981 253 1.000 0.069 0.054 4.027 0.076 0.001 5 689031 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.072 0.064 3.266 0.079 0.001 6 689032 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.065 0.132 3.201 0.071 0.000 7 689051 1697 1983 287 1.000 0.075 -0.287 3.570 0.084 -0.002 8 689052 1675 1983 309 1.000 0.062 0.287 5.072 0.066 0.000 9 689061 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.059 0.027 3.125 0.066 0.000 10 689062 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.075 -0.520 3.359 0.082 -0.012 11 689081 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.072 -0.229 3.977 0.078 0.000 12 689082 1749 1983 235 1.000 0.065 0.306 4.822 0.069 -0.002 13 689091 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.075 -0.326 4.427 0.076 -0.001 14 689092 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.067 -0.624 4.211 0.073 -0.003 15 689101 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.066 -0.218 3.140 0.072 0.000 16 689102 1623 1983 361 1.000 0.064 -0.088 3.112 0.070 -0.001 17 689111 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.077 -0.366 3.427 0.089 0.001 18 689112 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.087 0.119 5.495 0.091 0.001 19 689121 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.067 -1.202 5.722 0.073 0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 689122 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.067 -0.372 3.395 0.075 0.001 21 689131 1552 1983 432 1.000 0.078 -0.443 4.031 0.084 0.001 22 689132 1534 1983 450 1.000 0.078 -0.372 3.648 0.086 -0.006 23 689151 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.060 -0.482 3.516 0.068 0.000 24 689152 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.059 -0.370 3.647 0.065 -0.006 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 284 1.000 0.072 -0.237 3.867 0.079 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 96 0.000 0.010 0.338 0.746 0.012 0.004 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 257 1.000 0.070 -0.306 3.638 0.076 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 129 0.000 0.013 0.467 0.779 0.015 0.003 MINIMUM VALUE 164 1.000 0.059 -1.202 3.112 0.065 -0.012 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.065 -0.408 3.342 0.071 -0.001 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 341 1.000 0.078 0.059 4.121 0.085 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 473 1.000 0.094 0.306 5.722 0.106 0.006 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.367 0.136 0.008 -0.218 2.672 -0.028 0.720 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.028 SERIES 689032 AND 689152 164 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.720 SERIES 689131 AND 689132 432 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1536. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. CORR 1. 3. 6. 6. 10. 15. 21. 28. 55. 91. RBAR 0.673 0.580 0.658 0.670 0.604 0.487 0.372 0.420 0.419 0.369 SDEV 0.000 0.158 0.087 0.134 0.128 0.142 0.154 0.135 0.135 0.152 SERR 0.000 0.091 0.035 0.055 0.040 0.037 0.033 0.025 0.018 0.016 EPS 0.849 0.842 0.893 0.915 0.903 0.870 0.839 0.892 0.910 0.910 NSS 2.7 3.9 4.3 5.3 6.1 7.0 8.8 11.4 14.1 17.2 YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 153. 210. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.248 0.230 0.394 0.390 0.336 0.381 0.517 SDEV 0.185 0.220 0.208 0.204 0.207 0.170 0.161 SERR 0.015 0.015 0.013 0.012 0.012 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.873 0.874 0.940 0.939 0.924 0.937 0.963 NSS 20.8 23.2 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1511 1983 473 1.000 0.056 -0.794 5.040 0.066 -0.198 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.049 -0.018 0.071 99 374 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.50 1.00 1.07 1.57 15.09 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.52 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.197 -0.018 -0.017 -0.066 -0.012 -0.014 0.001 -0.044 0.016 0.009 PACF -0.197 -0.060 -0.034 -0.081 -0.046 -0.035 -0.017 -0.060 -0.013 0.000 95% C.L. 0.092 0.095 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.042 -0.197 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.003 -0.005 -0.006 0.000 -0.002 -0.021 -0.051 0.004 0.025 PACF -0.001 -0.003 -0.005 -0.006 0.000 -0.002 -0.021 -0.051 0.004 0.024 95% C.L. 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.001 -0.001 -0.003 -0.005 -0.006 0.000 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1511 1983 473 1.000 0.056 -0.554 4.034 0.058 0.083 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.083 0.106 0.146 0.119 -0.036 0.096 0.018 -0.016 0.020 0.055 PACF 0.083 0.100 0.132 0.092 -0.078 0.068 -0.010 -0.027 0.014 0.039 95% C.L. 0.092 0.093 0.094 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.053 0.056 0.092 0.134 0.097 -0.081 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.30 MINUTES