RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: UT512W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: UT512W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 689 1 Hidden Peak, Wasatch Mtn WIDTH_RING PCEN - 689 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3150 4034-11138 1511 1983 689 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 689022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1979 1979 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 689112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1811 1811 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 689011 1511 1983 473 0.400 0.139 0.960 4.249 0.151 0.845 2 689012 1511 1983 473 0.589 0.193 0.419 2.711 0.145 0.822 3 689021 1713 1983 271 0.643 0.246 0.532 3.039 0.163 0.836 4 689022 1729 1981 253 0.844 0.309 0.409 4.543 0.168 0.736 5 689031 1766 1983 218 0.404 0.216 1.085 3.579 0.232 0.855 6 689032 1663 1983 321 0.475 0.216 2.041 9.118 0.184 0.830 7 689051 1697 1983 287 0.709 0.231 0.378 2.439 0.151 0.823 8 689052 1675 1983 309 0.888 0.267 0.638 3.568 0.184 0.681 9 689061 1768 1983 216 0.668 0.168 0.723 3.438 0.184 0.506 10 689062 1777 1983 207 0.573 0.215 0.740 3.134 0.203 0.808 11 689081 1706 1983 278 0.663 0.304 1.095 6.269 0.184 0.861 12 689082 1749 1983 235 0.832 0.327 1.533 6.183 0.170 0.812 13 689091 1768 1983 216 0.819 0.191 0.520 3.615 0.147 0.710 14 689092 1800 1983 184 1.226 0.294 0.286 3.127 0.126 0.778 15 689101 1603 1983 381 0.615 0.226 0.853 3.682 0.153 0.846 16 689102 1623 1983 361 0.768 0.431 1.205 4.011 0.183 0.890 17 689111 1733 1983 251 0.798 0.301 0.203 3.241 0.161 0.861 18 689112 1794 1983 190 0.944 0.278 0.361 2.774 0.148 0.745 19 689121 1723 1983 261 1.246 0.381 0.562 3.074 0.167 0.747 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 689122 1781 1983 203 1.357 0.274 0.087 2.519 0.129 0.685 21 689131 1552 1983 432 0.619 0.147 0.473 3.993 0.143 0.689 22 689132 1534 1983 450 0.747 0.185 0.174 3.391 0.132 0.765 23 689151 1806 1983 178 1.854 0.601 0.793 4.030 0.170 0.696 24 689152 1820 1983 164 2.150 0.558 0.488 4.376 0.164 0.647 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1511 TO 1983 473 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 284 0.868 0.279 0.690 3.921 0.164 0.770 STANDARD DEVIATION 96 0.428 0.116 0.456 1.466 0.024 0.089 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 256 0.758 0.256 0.547 3.573 0.163 0.793 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 129 0.299 0.103 0.513 1.039 0.036 0.137 MINIMUM VALUE 164 0.400 0.139 0.087 2.439 0.126 0.506 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 0.617 0.204 0.393 3.101 0.147 0.703 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 341 0.916 0.307 0.906 4.140 0.183 0.840 MAXIMUM VALUE 473 2.150 0.601 2.041 9.118 0.232 0.890 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.193 0.261 0.016 -0.262 3.059 -0.552 0.872 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.552 SERIES 689081 AND 689102 278 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.872 SERIES 689031 AND 689032 218 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1536. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. CORR 1. 3. 6. 6. 10. 15. 21. 28. 55. 91. RBAR 0.694 0.647 0.638 0.704 0.428 0.268 0.392 0.242 0.199 0.304 SDEV 0.000 0.150 0.156 0.160 0.252 0.219 0.282 0.345 0.306 0.216 SERR 0.000 0.087 0.064 0.065 0.080 0.057 0.062 0.065 0.041 0.023 EPS 0.861 0.876 0.884 0.926 0.820 0.721 0.850 0.784 0.778 0.883 NSS 2.7 3.9 4.3 5.3 6.1 7.0 8.8 11.4 14.1 17.2 YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 153. 210. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.192 0.402 0.311 0.258 0.214 0.257 0.384 SDEV 0.210 0.291 0.192 0.279 0.262 0.242 0.238 SERR 0.017 0.020 0.012 0.017 0.016 0.015 0.014 EPS 0.832 0.940 0.915 0.893 0.867 0.892 0.937 NSS 20.8 23.2 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1511 1983 473 0.689 0.132 0.250 3.116 0.121 0.680 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.522 0.497 -0.045 216 257 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.73 1.64 1.00 1.23 2.87 151.56 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.96 0.12 0.54 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 257. 130. 164. 212. 341. 473. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.678 0.524 0.471 0.433 0.421 0.422 0.343 0.330 0.286 0.290 PACF 0.678 0.119 0.144 0.086 0.103 0.098 -0.069 0.067 -0.042 0.071 95% C.L. 0.092 0.127 0.145 0.157 0.167 0.175 0.184 0.189 0.194 0.198 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 8 0.502 0.559 0.012 0.080 0.028 0.045 0.140 -0.107 0.070 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 689011 1 0.34419316 0.01715724 0.00000000 0.35794654 2 689012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00053894 0.46112883 3 689021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00097998 0.77611810 4 689022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00149131 1.03020680 5 689031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00146020 0.24409842 6 689032 1 0.78319919 0.04193442 0.00000000 0.41754693 7 689051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00172452 0.95742428 8 689052 1 0.30285367 0.01379303 0.00000000 0.81877941 9 689061 1 0.09913734 0.01876368 0.00000000 0.64369035 10 689062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00228272 0.33544767 11 689081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00256010 0.30538374 12 689082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00229520 0.56125152 13 689091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00054165 0.76012015 14 689092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00253193 1.45996439 15 689101 1 0.79808056 0.00483875 0.00000000 0.25194246 16 689102 1 1.53718603 0.00693419 0.00000000 0.20633011 17 689111 1 0.77494603 0.00840333 0.00000000 0.47633484 18 689112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00031339 0.91538185 19 689121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00158017 1.03901267 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 689122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00049842 1.30571282 21 689131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010622 0.59630895 22 689132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011273 0.72204602 23 689151 1 2.30956292 0.00427682 0.00000000 0.24127689 24 689152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00605385 2.64926004 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 689011 1511 1983 473 1.000 0.305 1.150 5.508 0.151 0.800 2 689012 1511 1983 473 1.003 0.319 0.629 3.223 0.145 0.811 3 689021 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.363 0.433 2.755 0.162 0.818 4 689022 1729 1981 253 0.998 0.346 -0.024 3.931 0.168 0.756 5 689031 1766 1983 218 1.019 0.508 0.835 3.206 0.231 0.839 6 689032 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.341 0.845 3.540 0.183 0.741 7 689051 1697 1983 287 1.001 0.261 0.303 2.504 0.151 0.747 8 689052 1675 1983 309 1.000 0.284 0.449 3.364 0.183 0.648 9 689061 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.247 0.661 3.544 0.184 0.495 10 689062 1777 1983 207 1.003 0.286 0.202 2.650 0.203 0.580 11 689081 1706 1983 278 0.995 0.347 1.558 7.900 0.183 0.686 12 689082 1749 1983 235 1.002 0.337 1.501 6.852 0.169 0.737 13 689091 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.226 0.219 3.081 0.146 0.690 14 689092 1800 1983 184 0.999 0.214 0.497 3.355 0.126 0.712 15 689101 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.200 0.203 2.866 0.152 0.520 16 689102 1623 1983 361 1.002 0.220 0.269 3.552 0.183 0.398 17 689111 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.310 -0.224 3.312 0.161 0.792 18 689112 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.294 0.355 2.738 0.149 0.745 19 689121 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.291 0.556 3.516 0.166 0.696 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 689122 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.200 0.050 2.551 0.128 0.677 21 689131 1552 1983 432 1.000 0.238 0.556 4.359 0.143 0.686 22 689132 1534 1983 450 1.000 0.250 0.315 3.686 0.131 0.765 23 689151 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.273 1.245 5.599 0.169 0.587 24 689152 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.224 0.198 4.448 0.163 0.556 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 284 1.001 0.287 0.533 3.835 0.164 0.687 STANDARD DEVIATION 96 0.004 0.069 0.460 1.364 0.024 0.113 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 257 1.000 0.285 0.441 3.440 0.162 0.704 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 129 0.001 0.096 0.537 1.171 0.035 0.142 MINIMUM VALUE 164 0.995 0.200 -0.224 2.504 0.126 0.398 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.232 0.211 2.974 0.147 0.618 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 341 1.001 0.328 0.748 4.145 0.183 0.760 MAXIMUM VALUE 473 1.019 0.508 1.558 7.900 0.231 0.839 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 689011 -67 316 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 689012 -67 316 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 689021 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 689022 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 689031 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 689032 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 689051 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 689052 -67 207 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 689061 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 689062 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 689081 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 689082 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 689091 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 689092 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 689101 -67 255 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 689102 -67 241 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 689111 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 689112 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 689121 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 689122 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 689131 -67 289 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 689132 -67 301 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 689151 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 689152 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 689011 1511 1983 473 0.996 0.251 0.392 3.105 0.151 0.721 2 689012 1511 1983 473 0.995 0.229 0.577 4.020 0.145 0.651 3 689021 1713 1983 271 0.994 0.327 0.178 2.733 0.162 0.780 4 689022 1729 1981 253 0.994 0.334 0.129 3.845 0.168 0.728 5 689031 1766 1983 218 0.992 0.298 0.049 2.988 0.231 0.604 6 689032 1663 1983 321 0.991 0.262 0.514 3.129 0.183 0.592 7 689051 1697 1983 287 0.996 0.228 0.213 2.468 0.151 0.661 8 689052 1675 1983 309 0.998 0.262 0.371 3.386 0.183 0.592 9 689061 1768 1983 216 0.998 0.223 0.477 3.466 0.183 0.411 10 689062 1777 1983 207 0.995 0.251 0.198 2.668 0.203 0.479 11 689081 1706 1983 278 0.998 0.334 1.438 7.313 0.183 0.654 12 689082 1749 1983 235 0.998 0.333 1.964 9.466 0.169 0.725 13 689091 1768 1983 216 0.998 0.204 0.224 2.967 0.146 0.623 14 689092 1800 1983 184 0.999 0.185 0.227 3.162 0.126 0.624 15 689101 1603 1983 381 0.998 0.189 0.234 2.941 0.152 0.454 16 689102 1623 1983 361 0.999 0.210 0.233 3.594 0.183 0.347 17 689111 1733 1983 251 0.990 0.250 -0.373 3.804 0.160 0.700 18 689112 1794 1983 190 0.991 0.237 0.602 3.597 0.148 0.637 19 689121 1723 1983 261 0.995 0.268 1.005 5.446 0.166 0.630 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 689122 1781 1983 203 0.999 0.176 0.184 3.255 0.128 0.580 21 689131 1552 1983 432 0.999 0.228 0.478 3.841 0.143 0.665 22 689132 1534 1983 450 0.996 0.215 0.390 3.981 0.131 0.690 23 689151 1806 1983 178 0.998 0.269 1.405 6.203 0.170 0.571 24 689152 1820 1983 164 0.999 0.221 0.208 4.510 0.163 0.544 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 284 0.996 0.249 0.472 3.995 0.164 0.611 STANDARD DEVIATION 96 0.003 0.047 0.510 1.627 0.024 0.105 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 257 0.997 0.243 0.302 3.530 0.162 0.627 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 129 0.004 0.050 0.342 0.954 0.036 0.102 MINIMUM VALUE 164 0.990 0.176 -0.373 2.468 0.126 0.347 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 0.995 0.218 0.203 3.047 0.147 0.575 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 341 0.998 0.268 0.546 4.001 0.183 0.678 MAXIMUM VALUE 473 0.999 0.334 1.964 9.466 0.231 0.780 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.262 0.127 0.008 0.582 3.848 -0.024 0.712 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.024 SERIES 689021 AND 689112 190 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.712 SERIES 689131 AND 689132 432 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1536. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. CORR 1. 3. 6. 6. 10. 15. 21. 28. 55. 91. RBAR 0.694 0.565 0.706 0.625 0.488 0.311 0.376 0.231 0.205 0.312 SDEV 0.000 0.178 0.109 0.210 0.227 0.209 0.204 0.309 0.288 0.219 SERR 0.000 0.103 0.044 0.086 0.072 0.054 0.044 0.058 0.039 0.023 EPS 0.861 0.833 0.912 0.898 0.853 0.760 0.841 0.774 0.784 0.886 NSS 2.7 3.9 4.3 5.3 6.1 7.0 8.8 11.4 14.1 17.2 YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 153. 210. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.211 0.391 0.341 0.250 0.213 0.248 0.361 SDEV 0.188 0.242 0.181 0.249 0.256 0.216 0.199 SERR 0.015 0.017 0.011 0.015 0.015 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.847 0.937 0.925 0.889 0.866 0.888 0.931 NSS 20.8 23.2 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1511 1983 473 0.989 0.150 0.069 2.618 0.111 0.590 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.201 0.102 0.079 142 331 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.60 1.00 1.06 1.66 10.10 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.13 0.49 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.589 0.401 0.361 0.287 0.254 0.228 0.137 0.130 0.104 0.106 PACF 0.589 0.083 0.148 0.013 0.060 0.028 -0.077 0.044 -0.023 0.051 95% C.L. 0.092 0.120 0.131 0.139 0.144 0.147 0.150 0.151 0.152 0.153 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.365 0.528 0.003 0.148 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.596 0.403 0.320 0.319 0.266 0.240 0.141 0.124 0.100 0.133 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.596 2 0.552 0.075 3 0.546 0.029 0.083 4 0.535 0.025 0.011 0.132 5 0.534 0.025 0.010 0.129 0.006 6 0.534 0.019 0.010 0.127 -0.021 0.050 7 0.538 0.017 0.022 0.128 -0.019 0.100 -0.093 8 0.541 0.014 0.022 0.125 -0.020 0.099 -0.108 0.029 9 0.541 0.013 0.023 0.124 -0.018 0.100 -0.108 0.035 -0.011 10 0.542 0.010 0.031 0.117 -0.017 0.091 -0.110 0.034 -0.049 0.071 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3691.38 3485.68 3485.05 3483.81 3477.51 3479.49 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3480.28 3478.20 3479.80 3481.74 3481.36 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.535 0.025 0.011 0.132 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 37.44 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 159.85 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.535 0.311 0.190 0.247 0.211 0.162 0.120 0.103 0.088 0.0720 0.058 0.047 0.039 0.032 0.026 0.021 0.018 0.014 0.012 0.0097 0.008 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.0013 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 689011 4 0.543 0.582 0.196 0.013 -0.015 2 689012 4 0.430 0.587 0.074 0.021 0.015 3 689021 4 0.620 0.759 0.047 -0.024 0.011 4 689022 4 0.547 0.686 0.018 -0.040 0.127 5 689031 4 0.392 0.495 0.190 -0.048 0.054 6 689032 4 0.379 0.490 0.075 0.049 0.104 7 689051 4 0.468 0.511 0.121 0.131 -0.001 8 689052 4 0.383 0.466 0.093 0.127 0.032 9 689061 4 0.190 0.387 0.008 0.115 -0.007 10 689062 4 0.249 0.496 -0.027 0.071 -0.108 11 689081 4 0.450 0.568 0.200 -0.052 -0.053 12 689082 4 0.558 0.889 -0.252 -0.027 0.119 13 689091 4 0.401 0.558 0.139 -0.024 -0.035 14 689092 4 0.402 0.635 0.062 -0.145 0.047 15 689101 4 0.234 0.385 0.122 -0.015 0.088 16 689102 4 0.149 0.308 0.011 0.098 0.097 17 689111 4 0.514 0.576 0.061 0.094 0.060 18 689112 4 0.438 0.593 0.013 0.063 0.035 19 689121 4 0.418 0.618 -0.064 0.153 -0.021 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 689122 4 0.349 0.537 0.039 -0.022 0.107 21 689131 4 0.459 0.586 0.058 0.008 0.092 22 689132 4 0.504 0.567 0.054 0.078 0.088 23 689151 4 0.334 0.596 -0.062 0.088 -0.091 24 689152 4 0.329 0.557 0.035 -0.056 -0.117 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.406 0.560 0.050 0.027 0.026 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.118 0.119 0.096 0.075 0.072 MEDIAN 4 0.410 0.567 0.056 0.017 0.033 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.144 0.099 0.094 0.117 0.108 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.149 0.308 -0.252 -0.145 -0.117 LOWER HINGE 4 0.342 0.495 0.012 -0.025 -0.018 UPPER HINGE 4 0.486 0.594 0.107 0.091 0.090 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.620 0.889 0.200 0.153 0.127 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 689011 1511 1983 473 1.000 0.170 0.103 3.081 0.197 0.002 2 689012 1511 1983 473 1.000 0.173 0.362 4.644 0.181 -0.001 3 689021 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.201 -0.207 4.873 0.221 0.000 4 689022 1729 1981 253 1.000 0.225 0.767 7.415 0.224 0.008 5 689031 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.233 0.169 3.236 0.267 0.003 6 689032 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.206 0.563 3.515 0.221 -0.003 7 689051 1697 1983 287 1.000 0.166 0.121 3.612 0.183 -0.001 8 689052 1675 1983 309 1.000 0.206 0.414 3.564 0.227 -0.001 9 689061 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.202 0.186 3.737 0.218 -0.004 10 689062 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.217 0.362 3.751 0.238 0.001 11 689081 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.249 1.475 9.713 0.235 0.004 12 689082 1749 1983 235 1.000 0.221 0.816 6.861 0.235 0.002 13 689091 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.159 0.024 3.708 0.186 -0.003 14 689092 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.143 0.106 3.161 0.159 -0.002 15 689101 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.166 0.317 3.396 0.182 -0.007 16 689102 1623 1983 361 1.000 0.194 0.353 4.189 0.205 -0.006 17 689111 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.174 0.250 3.573 0.195 0.000 18 689112 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.180 0.179 4.215 0.199 0.006 19 689121 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.205 1.116 8.913 0.206 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 689122 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.142 0.480 3.500 0.156 0.006 21 689131 1552 1983 432 1.000 0.168 0.583 4.567 0.183 -0.007 22 689132 1534 1983 450 1.000 0.152 0.463 3.733 0.168 -0.011 23 689151 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.219 1.320 7.177 0.223 0.003 24 689152 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.179 0.440 5.124 0.196 -0.013 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 284 1.000 0.190 0.448 4.719 0.204 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 96 0.000 0.029 0.405 1.876 0.027 0.005 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 257 1.000 0.187 0.362 3.744 0.202 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 129 0.000 0.045 0.399 1.459 0.041 0.005 MINIMUM VALUE 164 1.000 0.142 -0.207 3.081 0.156 -0.013 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.167 0.174 3.540 0.183 -0.003 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 341 1.000 0.212 0.573 4.998 0.224 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 473 1.000 0.249 1.475 9.713 0.267 0.008 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.279 0.111 0.007 1.006 4.492 0.012 0.720 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.012 SERIES 689061 AND 689082 216 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.720 SERIES 689131 AND 689132 432 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1536. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. CORR 1. 3. 6. 6. 10. 15. 21. 28. 55. 91. RBAR 0.714 0.560 0.650 0.648 0.514 0.373 0.407 0.382 0.358 0.377 SDEV 0.000 0.193 0.156 0.167 0.140 0.143 0.163 0.183 0.165 0.162 SERR 0.000 0.112 0.064 0.068 0.044 0.037 0.036 0.035 0.022 0.017 EPS 0.872 0.831 0.890 0.907 0.865 0.807 0.858 0.876 0.887 0.912 NSS 2.7 3.9 4.3 5.3 6.1 7.0 8.8 11.4 14.1 17.2 YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 153. 210. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.243 0.337 0.306 0.267 0.285 0.293 0.296 SDEV 0.191 0.183 0.168 0.181 0.169 0.157 0.159 SERR 0.015 0.013 0.010 0.011 0.010 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.870 0.922 0.914 0.897 0.905 0.909 0.910 NSS 20.8 23.2 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1511 1983 473 0.996 0.118 0.118 3.259 0.134 -0.010 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.229 0.112 0.015 149 324 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 0.97 1.00 1.10 2.07 15.74 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.52 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.010 -0.084 0.036 -0.021 0.030 0.105 -0.052 0.034 -0.018 0.020 PACF -0.010 -0.085 0.034 -0.027 0.036 0.101 -0.044 0.049 -0.033 0.034 95% C.L. 0.092 0.092 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.002 -0.002 0.012 0.030 0.105 -0.049 0.044 -0.023 0.035 PACF 0.001 0.002 -0.002 0.012 0.030 0.105 -0.050 0.044 -0.024 0.033 95% C.L. 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.094 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.001 0.001 0.002 -0.002 0.012 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1511 1983 473 0.996 0.155 0.174 2.749 0.106 0.627 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.626 0.449 0.372 0.391 0.360 0.331 0.236 0.226 0.187 0.192 PACF 0.626 0.095 0.097 0.176 0.046 0.053 -0.077 0.050 -0.035 0.038 95% C.L. 0.092 0.123 0.136 0.144 0.153 0.160 0.166 0.169 0.171 0.173 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.423 0.540 0.033 -0.001 0.176 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.27 MINUTES