RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: UT512X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: UT512X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 689 1 Hidden Peak, Wasatch Mtn DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCEN - 689 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3150 4034-11138 1511 1983 689 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 689022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1979 1979 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 689112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1811 1811 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 689011 1511 1983 473 0.536 0.076 0.382 2.727 0.088 0.652 2 689012 1511 1983 473 0.610 0.074 -0.047 2.833 0.104 0.430 3 689021 1713 1983 271 0.572 0.076 0.129 3.083 0.098 0.551 4 689022 1729 1981 253 0.677 0.074 0.130 3.713 0.065 0.699 5 689031 1766 1983 218 0.681 0.085 -0.373 2.606 0.070 0.753 6 689032 1663 1983 321 0.628 0.093 -0.218 2.256 0.063 0.851 7 689051 1697 1983 287 0.577 0.060 -0.028 2.318 0.080 0.526 8 689052 1675 1983 309 0.595 0.070 -0.106 2.773 0.058 0.769 9 689061 1768 1983 216 0.670 0.052 -0.104 3.250 0.063 0.484 10 689062 1777 1983 207 0.689 0.065 -0.493 3.162 0.080 0.436 11 689081 1706 1983 278 0.670 0.076 0.245 3.549 0.073 0.650 12 689082 1749 1983 235 0.707 0.059 -0.239 3.952 0.058 0.578 13 689091 1768 1983 216 0.715 0.091 -0.089 2.638 0.071 0.686 14 689092 1800 1983 184 0.740 0.079 -0.684 2.831 0.068 0.638 15 689101 1603 1983 381 0.576 0.068 0.122 2.791 0.067 0.721 16 689102 1623 1983 361 0.616 0.073 -0.284 2.774 0.062 0.770 17 689111 1733 1983 251 0.635 0.070 -0.138 2.715 0.086 0.546 18 689112 1794 1983 190 0.661 0.075 -0.414 3.757 0.090 0.448 19 689121 1723 1983 261 0.707 0.059 -0.851 3.872 0.075 0.360 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 689122 1781 1983 203 0.701 0.063 -0.446 3.474 0.077 0.396 21 689131 1552 1983 432 0.606 0.059 -0.290 2.624 0.087 0.333 22 689132 1534 1983 450 0.637 0.091 -0.235 2.137 0.084 0.717 23 689151 1806 1983 178 0.633 0.042 -0.627 3.469 0.064 0.212 24 689152 1820 1983 164 0.604 0.044 -0.282 3.161 0.077 0.095 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1511 TO 1983 473 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 284 0.643 0.070 -0.206 3.019 0.075 0.554 STANDARD DEVIATION 96 0.053 0.013 0.297 0.517 0.012 0.189 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 256 0.636 0.071 -0.227 2.832 0.074 0.564 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 129 0.080 0.016 0.356 0.795 0.020 0.275 MINIMUM VALUE 164 0.536 0.042 -0.851 2.137 0.058 0.095 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 0.605 0.060 -0.394 2.677 0.064 0.433 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 341 0.685 0.076 -0.037 3.472 0.085 0.708 MAXIMUM VALUE 473 0.740 0.093 0.382 3.952 0.104 0.851 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.211 0.194 0.012 -0.277 2.755 -0.367 0.673 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.367 SERIES 689031 AND 689092 184 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.673 SERIES 689131 AND 689132 432 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1536. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. CORR 1. 3. 6. 6. 10. 15. 21. 28. 55. 91. RBAR 0.547 0.533 0.578 0.592 0.435 0.556 0.310 0.269 0.257 0.372 SDEV 0.000 0.200 0.123 0.163 0.282 0.139 0.191 0.204 0.267 0.206 SERR 0.000 0.115 0.050 0.066 0.089 0.036 0.042 0.039 0.036 0.022 EPS 0.767 0.815 0.856 0.885 0.824 0.898 0.797 0.807 0.830 0.911 NSS 2.7 3.9 4.3 5.3 6.1 7.0 8.8 11.4 14.1 17.2 YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 153. 210. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.210 0.275 0.314 0.287 0.263 0.264 0.387 SDEV 0.253 0.261 0.229 0.255 0.245 0.250 0.239 SERR 0.020 0.018 0.014 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.014 EPS 0.847 0.898 0.917 0.906 0.896 0.896 0.938 NSS 20.8 23.2 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1511 1983 473 0.628 0.046 -0.525 3.400 0.064 0.321 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.000 0.000 0.075 73 400 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.48 1.00 1.05 1.53 33.27 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.40 0.87 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 257. 130. 164. 212. 341. 473. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.320 0.367 0.355 0.318 0.313 0.316 0.282 0.261 0.272 0.284 PACF 0.320 0.295 0.217 0.129 0.106 0.104 0.053 0.025 0.050 0.076 95% C.L. 0.092 0.101 0.112 0.121 0.128 0.134 0.140 0.145 0.149 0.153 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.252 0.110 0.186 0.158 0.092 0.090 0.103 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 689011 1 0.13674328 0.01240528 0.00000000 0.51293075 2 689012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003147 0.60235167 3 689021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00046599 0.50906110 4 689022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00034171 0.71998399 5 689031 1 0.17016676 0.01713330 0.00000000 0.63691962 6 689032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00071122 0.74223226 7 689051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00032970 0.62465465 8 689052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014796 0.57221222 9 689061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00036083 0.70873386 10 689062 1 0.10081013 0.04996530 0.00000000 0.67967385 11 689081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00029803 0.62889206 12 689082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012840 0.69182760 13 689091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00044277 0.66709822 14 689092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00039440 0.70302922 15 689101 1 0.17999874 0.01439630 0.00000000 0.54372436 16 689102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006532 0.60421604 17 689111 1 0.10466977 0.02592824 0.00000000 0.61892951 18 689112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00021829 0.68175435 19 689121 1 0.03318011 0.02307130 0.00000000 0.70150125 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 689122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012124 0.68876606 21 689131 1 0.02554880 0.00704591 0.00000000 0.59830952 22 689132 1 0.15215008 0.01425003 0.00000000 0.61370248 23 689151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001034 0.63210815 24 689152 1 0.04898514 0.01090584 0.00000000 0.58091557 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 689011 1511 1983 473 1.000 0.129 0.654 3.886 0.088 0.583 2 689012 1511 1983 473 1.000 0.121 -0.053 2.826 0.103 0.426 3 689021 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.118 0.001 3.510 0.098 0.425 4 689022 1729 1981 253 1.000 0.102 -0.179 3.077 0.064 0.660 5 689031 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.110 -0.228 2.951 0.070 0.659 6 689032 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.107 -0.003 2.516 0.062 0.718 7 689051 1697 1983 287 1.000 0.093 0.114 3.272 0.080 0.398 8 689052 1675 1983 309 1.000 0.115 -0.319 2.913 0.058 0.756 9 689061 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.071 0.142 3.222 0.063 0.359 10 689062 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.091 -0.486 3.253 0.079 0.378 11 689081 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.106 0.110 3.523 0.073 0.607 12 689082 1749 1983 235 1.000 0.083 -0.227 3.887 0.058 0.569 13 689091 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.124 0.298 4.071 0.070 0.664 14 689092 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.102 -0.706 2.961 0.067 0.602 15 689101 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.094 0.016 3.011 0.067 0.558 16 689102 1623 1983 361 1.000 0.118 -0.191 2.789 0.062 0.768 17 689111 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.104 0.034 3.004 0.086 0.485 18 689112 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.112 -0.383 3.645 0.092 0.416 19 689121 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.083 -0.790 3.828 0.074 0.347 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 689122 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.089 -0.395 3.269 0.076 0.393 21 689131 1552 1983 432 1.000 0.097 -0.296 2.652 0.087 0.323 22 689132 1534 1983 450 1.000 0.133 -0.122 2.450 0.084 0.673 23 689151 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.066 -0.637 3.474 0.064 0.210 24 689152 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.071 -0.213 3.124 0.076 0.033 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 284 1.000 0.102 -0.161 3.213 0.075 0.501 STANDARD DEVIATION 96 0.000 0.018 0.325 0.443 0.013 0.182 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 257 1.000 0.103 -0.185 3.173 0.074 0.522 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 129 0.000 0.026 0.376 0.584 0.021 0.274 MINIMUM VALUE 164 1.000 0.066 -0.790 2.450 0.058 0.033 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.090 -0.351 2.932 0.064 0.386 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 341 1.000 0.116 0.025 3.516 0.085 0.660 MAXIMUM VALUE 473 1.000 0.133 0.654 4.071 0.103 0.768 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 689011 -67 316 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 689012 -67 316 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 689021 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 689022 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 689031 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 689032 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 689051 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 689052 -67 207 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 689061 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 689062 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 689081 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 689082 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 689091 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 689092 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 689101 -67 255 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 689102 -67 241 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 689111 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 689112 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 689121 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 689122 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 689131 -67 289 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 689132 -67 301 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 689151 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 689152 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 689011 1511 1983 473 0.999 0.114 0.235 2.983 0.088 0.493 2 689012 1511 1983 473 0.999 0.106 -0.180 3.075 0.104 0.273 3 689021 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.111 -0.285 3.410 0.098 0.364 4 689022 1729 1981 253 1.000 0.097 -0.096 3.004 0.064 0.621 5 689031 1766 1983 218 0.999 0.092 -0.088 3.344 0.070 0.522 6 689032 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.100 -0.013 2.424 0.062 0.681 7 689051 1697 1983 287 1.000 0.089 0.073 3.376 0.080 0.353 8 689052 1675 1983 309 0.999 0.094 -0.131 3.195 0.058 0.640 9 689061 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.066 0.053 3.104 0.063 0.279 10 689062 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.087 -0.523 3.260 0.079 0.322 11 689081 1706 1983 278 0.999 0.098 -0.095 3.316 0.073 0.531 12 689082 1749 1983 235 1.000 0.081 -0.262 3.684 0.058 0.547 13 689091 1768 1983 216 0.999 0.095 -0.298 3.467 0.070 0.453 14 689092 1800 1983 184 0.999 0.075 -0.810 3.746 0.068 0.292 15 689101 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.085 -0.051 3.031 0.067 0.471 16 689102 1623 1983 361 0.998 0.089 -0.351 3.113 0.062 0.599 17 689111 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.092 -0.204 2.898 0.086 0.337 18 689112 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.097 -0.262 4.788 0.092 0.213 19 689121 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.075 -1.059 4.866 0.075 0.198 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 689122 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.080 -0.248 2.902 0.076 0.253 21 689131 1552 1983 432 1.000 0.093 -0.305 2.792 0.087 0.263 22 689132 1534 1983 450 0.999 0.116 -0.021 2.570 0.084 0.574 23 689151 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.065 -0.644 3.549 0.064 0.186 24 689152 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.069 -0.268 3.211 0.076 -0.001 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 284 0.999 0.090 -0.243 3.296 0.075 0.394 STANDARD DEVIATION 96 0.000 0.014 0.287 0.567 0.013 0.175 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 257 1.000 0.092 -0.226 3.203 0.074 0.358 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 129 0.000 0.017 0.232 0.445 0.021 0.271 MINIMUM VALUE 164 0.998 0.065 -1.059 2.424 0.058 -0.001 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 0.999 0.080 -0.302 2.993 0.064 0.268 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 341 1.000 0.097 -0.070 3.439 0.085 0.539 MAXIMUM VALUE 473 1.000 0.116 0.235 4.866 0.104 0.681 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.287 0.138 0.008 0.020 2.932 -0.108 0.704 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.108 SERIES 689091 AND 689102 216 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.704 SERIES 689131 AND 689132 432 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1536. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. CORR 1. 3. 6. 6. 10. 15. 21. 28. 55. 91. RBAR 0.507 0.487 0.636 0.584 0.448 0.457 0.282 0.273 0.278 0.418 SDEV 0.000 0.231 0.102 0.182 0.257 0.144 0.183 0.212 0.242 0.174 SERR 0.000 0.134 0.042 0.074 0.081 0.037 0.040 0.040 0.033 0.018 EPS 0.737 0.786 0.884 0.881 0.832 0.855 0.775 0.811 0.844 0.925 NSS 2.7 3.9 4.3 5.3 6.1 7.0 8.8 11.4 14.1 17.2 YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 153. 210. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.216 0.278 0.317 0.305 0.272 0.290 0.417 SDEV 0.227 0.241 0.229 0.236 0.241 0.219 0.212 SERR 0.018 0.017 0.014 0.014 0.015 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.852 0.899 0.918 0.913 0.900 0.907 0.945 NSS 20.8 23.2 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1511 1983 473 0.999 0.062 -0.487 3.496 0.063 0.112 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.086 -0.041 0.113 100 373 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.47 1.00 1.05 1.52 38.90 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.52 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.112 0.167 0.185 0.143 0.093 0.127 0.067 0.055 0.059 0.107 PACF 0.112 0.156 0.157 0.095 0.028 0.063 0.003 -0.003 0.008 0.071 95% C.L. 0.092 0.093 0.096 0.099 0.100 0.101 0.102 0.103 0.103 0.103 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.070 0.055 0.128 0.151 0.095 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.109 0.126 0.171 0.170 -0.018 0.118 0.081 0.085 0.021 0.101 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.109 2 0.096 0.116 3 0.079 0.101 0.150 4 0.059 0.088 0.139 0.134 5 0.070 0.099 0.146 0.139 -0.080 6 0.076 0.089 0.136 0.131 -0.085 0.074 7 0.073 0.091 0.131 0.127 -0.088 0.072 0.033 8 0.071 0.087 0.136 0.120 -0.095 0.067 0.029 0.055 9 0.072 0.088 0.137 0.119 -0.094 0.068 0.030 0.056 -0.012 10 0.072 0.085 0.135 0.115 -0.090 0.063 0.024 0.052 -0.015 0.047 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2805.62 2801.97 2797.60 2788.84 2782.29 2781.24 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2780.63 2782.11 2782.65 2784.59 2785.56 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 6 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.076 0.089 0.136 0.131 -0.085 0.074 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 7.52 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 108.13 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 6) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.076 0.094 0.149 0.161 -0.037 0.112 0.044 0.024 0.013 0.0389 0.001 0.013 0.009 0.008 0.001 0.007 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.0019 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 689011 6 0.317 0.326 0.169 0.152 0.033 -0.025 0.060 2 689012 6 0.150 0.166 0.178 0.097 0.107 0.033 -0.003 3 689021 6 0.177 0.311 0.129 0.020 0.099 -0.102 0.018 4 689022 6 0.437 0.474 0.201 0.060 0.115 -0.169 0.019 5 689031 6 0.331 0.405 0.233 0.118 -0.135 -0.105 0.072 6 689032 6 0.492 0.530 0.096 0.085 0.080 -0.037 0.038 7 689051 6 0.225 0.218 0.086 0.142 0.080 0.000 0.176 8 689052 6 0.487 0.484 0.028 0.339 -0.075 0.006 0.002 9 689061 6 0.127 0.219 0.059 0.185 0.073 -0.028 -0.028 10 689062 6 0.177 0.253 0.158 0.119 0.036 -0.144 0.069 11 689081 6 0.337 0.391 0.155 0.117 0.057 -0.099 0.079 12 689082 6 0.341 0.429 0.127 0.176 -0.023 -0.025 -0.081 13 689091 6 0.266 0.344 0.119 0.117 0.049 -0.072 0.115 14 689092 6 0.134 0.262 0.084 0.026 0.077 -0.060 0.083 15 689101 6 0.353 0.220 0.161 0.215 0.120 0.000 0.064 16 689102 6 0.426 0.427 0.193 -0.054 0.143 0.073 -0.008 17 689111 6 0.221 0.192 0.284 0.109 0.030 -0.024 0.024 18 689112 6 0.127 0.149 0.228 0.054 0.063 -0.125 -0.095 19 689121 6 0.087 0.151 0.090 0.089 0.112 -0.042 0.080 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 689122 6 0.166 0.205 0.162 0.017 0.198 -0.110 0.087 21 689131 6 0.197 0.099 0.169 0.133 0.149 0.050 0.083 22 689132 6 0.486 0.213 0.223 0.186 0.132 -0.009 0.111 23 689151 6 0.084 0.148 0.148 0.071 -0.003 -0.046 0.007 24 689152 6 0.061 -0.025 0.127 0.126 0.139 -0.066 -0.083 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 6 0.259 0.275 0.150 0.112 0.069 -0.047 0.037 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.138 0.138 0.060 0.078 0.074 0.061 0.066 MEDIAN 6 0.223 0.237 0.157 0.117 0.079 -0.040 0.049 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.205 0.219 0.078 0.081 0.083 0.096 0.082 MINIMUM VALUE 6 0.061 -0.025 0.028 -0.054 -0.135 -0.169 -0.095 LOWER HINGE 6 0.142 0.179 0.108 0.066 0.035 -0.101 0.000 UPPER HINGE 6 0.347 0.398 0.186 0.147 0.117 -0.005 0.081 MAXIMUM VALUE 6 0.492 0.530 0.284 0.339 0.198 0.073 0.176 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 689011 1511 1983 473 1.000 0.094 0.105 3.645 0.103 0.006 2 689012 1511 1983 473 1.000 0.098 -0.388 3.234 0.111 0.001 3 689021 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.101 -0.270 3.423 0.112 0.002 4 689022 1729 1981 253 1.000 0.073 -0.211 4.142 0.079 -0.001 5 689031 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.076 -0.003 3.233 0.083 -0.003 6 689032 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.072 0.130 3.055 0.079 0.001 7 689051 1697 1983 287 1.000 0.079 -0.209 3.655 0.088 0.004 8 689052 1675 1983 309 1.000 0.067 0.228 4.945 0.070 0.000 9 689061 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.062 0.104 3.139 0.070 0.000 10 689062 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.080 -0.477 3.310 0.087 -0.009 11 689081 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.079 -0.250 3.906 0.086 -0.001 12 689082 1749 1983 235 1.000 0.066 -0.128 3.573 0.069 -0.002 13 689091 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.081 -0.163 4.497 0.083 -0.002 14 689092 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.071 -0.722 4.387 0.075 -0.009 15 689101 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.069 -0.186 3.324 0.075 0.001 16 689102 1623 1983 361 1.000 0.068 -0.014 3.437 0.075 -0.001 17 689111 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.081 -0.270 3.062 0.092 0.001 18 689112 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.091 -0.188 4.066 0.096 0.007 19 689121 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.071 -1.127 5.056 0.079 0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 689122 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.073 -0.265 3.102 0.082 -0.002 21 689131 1552 1983 432 1.000 0.083 -0.340 3.609 0.090 0.001 22 689132 1534 1983 450 1.000 0.083 -0.267 3.624 0.092 -0.007 23 689151 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.063 -0.566 3.522 0.069 0.001 24 689152 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.067 -0.381 3.494 0.075 -0.007 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 284 1.000 0.077 -0.244 3.685 0.084 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 96 0.000 0.011 0.292 0.565 0.012 0.004 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 257 1.000 0.074 -0.231 3.548 0.082 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 129 0.000 0.014 0.289 0.714 0.016 0.003 MINIMUM VALUE 164 1.000 0.062 -1.127 3.055 0.069 -0.009 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.068 -0.361 3.272 0.075 -0.002 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 341 1.000 0.082 -0.071 3.986 0.091 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 473 1.000 0.101 0.228 5.056 0.112 0.007 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.383 0.140 0.008 -0.373 2.764 -0.021 0.725 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.021 SERIES 689031 AND 689152 164 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.725 SERIES 689131 AND 689132 432 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1536. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. CORR 1. 3. 6. 6. 10. 15. 21. 28. 55. 91. RBAR 0.705 0.625 0.695 0.700 0.622 0.488 0.365 0.408 0.435 0.406 SDEV 0.000 0.141 0.081 0.110 0.116 0.156 0.161 0.144 0.136 0.155 SERR 0.000 0.082 0.033 0.045 0.037 0.040 0.035 0.027 0.018 0.016 EPS 0.867 0.866 0.908 0.925 0.909 0.870 0.834 0.887 0.916 0.922 NSS 2.7 3.9 4.3 5.3 6.1 7.0 8.8 11.4 14.1 17.2 YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 153. 210. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.270 0.259 0.407 0.399 0.357 0.395 0.519 SDEV 0.180 0.211 0.205 0.203 0.214 0.181 0.164 SERR 0.015 0.015 0.012 0.012 0.013 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.885 0.890 0.943 0.941 0.930 0.940 0.963 NSS 20.8 23.2 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1511 1983 473 1.000 0.059 -0.670 4.602 0.070 -0.194 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.031 -0.012 0.066 98 375 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.42 1.00 1.07 1.49 27.31 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.52 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.193 -0.043 -0.010 -0.052 0.000 -0.013 0.004 -0.042 -0.005 0.021 PACF -0.193 -0.083 -0.037 -0.068 -0.029 -0.029 -0.011 -0.053 -0.030 0.005 95% C.L. 0.092 0.095 0.095 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.046 -0.210 -0.084 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.002 -0.004 -0.005 -0.001 -0.002 -0.014 -0.046 -0.006 0.039 PACF 0.000 -0.002 -0.004 -0.005 -0.001 -0.002 -0.014 -0.046 -0.006 0.039 95% C.L. 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.004 -0.005 -0.001 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1511 1983 473 1.000 0.060 -0.446 3.554 0.062 0.108 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.108 0.120 0.169 0.164 -0.018 0.113 0.052 0.010 0.021 0.088 PACF 0.108 0.110 0.149 0.129 -0.077 0.071 0.004 -0.018 0.006 0.055 95% C.L. 0.092 0.093 0.094 0.097 0.099 0.099 0.100 0.101 0.101 0.101 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.072 0.076 0.085 0.135 0.129 -0.085 0.069 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.33 MINUTES