RUN: WAWY001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: WA082E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: WA082E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 712 1 Hurricane Ridge WIDTH_EARLY ABAM - 712 2 United States of America Pacific silver fir 1560 4757-12328 1698 198 712 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 712011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1900 1900 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 712011 1811 1983 173 0.441 0.260 1.579 5.359 0.354 0.726 2 712012 1770 1983 214 0.404 0.206 0.914 3.707 0.326 0.702 3 712021 1824 1983 160 1.188 0.349 0.326 3.608 0.259 0.383 4 712022 1838 1983 146 1.223 0.363 0.592 4.309 0.264 0.308 5 712031 1764 1983 220 0.749 0.228 0.325 2.629 0.219 0.595 6 712032 1828 1983 156 0.935 0.253 0.409 3.010 0.215 0.515 7 712041 1722 1983 262 0.602 0.219 0.371 2.723 0.256 0.618 8 712042 1773 1983 211 0.438 0.162 0.320 2.836 0.241 0.687 9 712051 1761 1983 223 0.543 0.314 0.862 3.232 0.300 0.769 10 712052 1772 1931 160 0.587 0.418 1.816 7.060 0.276 0.835 11 712061 1797 1983 187 0.726 0.255 1.158 4.234 0.225 0.666 12 712062 1777 1983 207 0.746 0.304 0.569 2.726 0.214 0.745 13 712071 1883 1983 101 1.629 0.497 0.187 2.881 0.226 0.569 14 712072 1889 1983 95 1.727 0.519 -0.255 3.399 0.228 0.554 15 712081 1861 1983 123 0.943 0.371 0.202 3.054 0.245 0.757 16 712082 1864 1983 120 1.600 0.880 0.167 2.485 0.211 0.895 17 712091 1810 1983 174 0.921 0.374 1.946 7.424 0.210 0.751 18 712092 1715 1983 269 0.712 0.402 0.919 3.371 0.272 0.837 19 712101 1702 1983 282 0.869 0.370 0.666 3.030 0.272 0.692 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 712102 1706 1983 278 0.732 0.360 1.337 5.011 0.253 0.742 21 712111 1748 1983 236 0.423 0.235 1.767 7.247 0.296 0.776 22 712121 1730 1983 254 0.597 0.402 1.082 3.707 0.275 0.835 23 712122 1698 1983 286 0.559 0.294 1.599 5.793 0.255 0.816 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1698 TO 1983 286 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 197 0.839 0.349 0.820 4.036 0.256 0.686 STANDARD DEVIATION 59 0.391 0.147 0.619 1.543 0.038 0.146 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 207 0.732 0.349 0.666 3.399 0.255 0.726 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 87 0.366 0.134 0.921 1.715 0.048 0.166 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.404 0.162 -0.255 2.485 0.210 0.308 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 158 0.573 0.254 0.326 2.946 0.226 0.607 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 245 0.939 0.388 1.247 4.660 0.273 0.773 MAXIMUM VALUE 286 1.727 0.880 1.946 7.424 0.354 0.895 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.215 0.284 0.018 0.063 2.563 -0.568 0.836 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.568 SERIES 712082 AND 712092 120 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.836 SERIES 712011 AND 712121 173 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 10. 21. 66. 91. 136. 171. 210. 231. 231. RBAR 0.170 0.368 0.295 0.438 0.408 0.347 0.303 0.229 0.152 SDEV 0.405 0.283 0.268 0.236 0.260 0.233 0.222 0.271 0.317 SERR 0.128 0.062 0.033 0.025 0.022 0.018 0.015 0.018 0.021 EPS 0.593 0.862 0.855 0.929 0.930 0.918 0.907 0.871 0.798 NSS 7.1 10.7 14.1 16.8 19.2 21.1 22.6 22.6 22.1 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1698 1983 286 0.774 0.262 1.665 6.030 0.200 0.662 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.071 0.039 0.330 123 163 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.63 1.25 1.00 1.26 2.51 66.92 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 207. 87. 95. 158. 245. 286. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.660 0.710 0.594 0.652 0.558 0.638 0.594 0.602 0.593 0.553 PACF 0.660 0.486 0.076 0.222 0.016 0.197 0.126 0.026 0.107 -0.064 95% C.L. 0.118 0.162 0.201 0.224 0.249 0.266 0.287 0.303 0.320 0.335 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.574 0.337 0.489 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 712011 1 1.04327047 0.05069781 0.00000000 0.32350829 2 712012 1 0.66657346 0.00886167 0.00000000 0.10672348 3 712021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00134736 1.29633725 4 712022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00018000 1.20992064 5 712031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00038079 0.70651305 6 712032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00074042 0.87668484 7 712041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014959 0.58265769 8 712042 1 0.33392170 0.02467397 0.00000000 0.37500566 9 712051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00388794 0.97849834 10 712052 1 1.54360390 0.03331593 0.00000000 0.30385706 11 712061 1 0.64547914 0.02281914 0.00000000 0.57860488 12 712062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00345703 1.10532856 13 712071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00323145 1.46440399 14 712072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00393337 1.53772449 15 712081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00418297 1.20259631 16 712082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01974731 2.79429555 17 712091 1 1.24052894 0.07157173 0.00000000 0.82511920 18 712092 1 0.91060406 0.03510290 0.00000000 0.61737692 19 712101 1 1.01621389 0.02587740 0.00000000 0.73146570 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 712102 1 1.10580146 0.02226081 0.00000000 0.55596775 21 712111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00051936 0.36125278 22 712121 1 1.34351099 0.00923145 0.00000000 0.08150725 23 712122 1 0.77505606 0.01259497 0.00000000 0.35145810 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 712011 1811 1983 173 1.000 0.394 1.233 5.903 0.356 0.331 2 712012 1770 1983 214 1.001 0.335 0.408 3.483 0.324 0.247 3 712021 1824 1983 160 1.000 0.284 0.191 3.702 0.257 0.364 4 712022 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.297 0.616 4.365 0.262 0.305 5 712031 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.303 0.362 2.720 0.218 0.593 6 712032 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.269 0.447 2.991 0.213 0.509 7 712041 1722 1983 262 1.000 0.365 0.413 2.759 0.255 0.616 8 712042 1773 1983 211 1.000 0.333 0.256 3.166 0.239 0.583 9 712051 1761 1983 223 1.027 0.372 1.036 7.461 0.299 0.436 10 712052 1772 1931 160 1.001 0.372 0.868 5.023 0.274 0.528 11 712061 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.254 0.133 3.000 0.224 0.390 12 712062 1777 1983 207 0.996 0.276 0.261 3.328 0.213 0.484 13 712071 1883 1983 101 1.000 0.303 0.301 2.871 0.224 0.541 14 712072 1889 1983 95 0.999 0.303 -0.079 3.240 0.226 0.539 15 712081 1861 1983 123 0.994 0.361 0.149 2.593 0.244 0.710 16 712082 1864 1983 120 0.973 0.375 0.325 3.149 0.209 0.752 17 712091 1810 1983 174 0.999 0.297 0.820 4.444 0.209 0.604 18 712092 1715 1983 269 0.999 0.533 1.312 5.488 0.271 0.814 19 712101 1702 1983 282 0.999 0.360 0.646 3.987 0.271 0.582 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 712102 1706 1983 278 0.999 0.354 0.978 5.043 0.253 0.614 21 712111 1748 1983 236 1.000 0.528 1.434 5.813 0.295 0.751 22 712121 1730 1983 254 1.002 0.436 1.373 5.772 0.274 0.674 23 712122 1698 1983 286 1.001 0.348 0.191 2.705 0.254 0.629 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 197 1.000 0.350 0.595 4.044 0.255 0.548 STANDARD DEVIATION 59 0.008 0.072 0.448 1.342 0.038 0.150 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 207 1.000 0.348 0.413 3.483 0.254 0.582 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 87 0.001 0.072 0.664 2.037 0.048 0.163 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.973 0.254 -0.079 2.593 0.209 0.247 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 158 0.999 0.300 0.259 2.996 0.224 0.460 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 245 1.000 0.372 0.923 5.033 0.272 0.623 MAXIMUM VALUE 286 1.027 0.533 1.434 7.461 0.356 0.814 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 712011 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 712012 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 712021 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 712022 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 712031 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 712032 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 712041 -67 175 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 712042 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 712051 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 712052 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 712061 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 712062 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 712071 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 712072 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 712081 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 712082 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 712091 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 712092 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 712101 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 712102 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 712111 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 712121 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 712122 -67 191 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 712011 1811 1983 173 0.994 0.332 0.550 3.965 0.356 0.132 2 712012 1770 1983 214 0.999 0.327 0.331 3.440 0.325 0.229 3 712021 1824 1983 160 0.999 0.255 0.092 3.980 0.257 0.197 4 712022 1838 1983 146 0.998 0.279 0.652 4.353 0.262 0.217 5 712031 1764 1983 220 0.997 0.259 0.255 2.711 0.217 0.450 6 712032 1828 1983 156 0.997 0.246 0.350 3.009 0.213 0.414 7 712041 1722 1983 262 0.994 0.331 0.222 2.687 0.255 0.544 8 712042 1773 1983 211 0.995 0.316 0.228 3.201 0.239 0.546 9 712051 1761 1983 223 0.997 0.326 0.386 4.103 0.299 0.346 10 712052 1772 1931 160 0.986 0.309 0.657 4.479 0.274 0.361 11 712061 1797 1983 187 0.999 0.242 0.339 4.416 0.224 0.289 12 712062 1777 1983 207 0.997 0.257 0.207 3.239 0.213 0.427 13 712071 1883 1983 101 0.998 0.287 0.345 3.193 0.224 0.491 14 712072 1889 1983 95 0.990 0.247 0.243 3.656 0.226 0.367 15 712081 1861 1983 123 0.995 0.265 0.160 3.109 0.244 0.362 16 712082 1864 1983 120 0.984 0.307 1.114 7.258 0.208 0.602 17 712091 1810 1983 174 0.996 0.268 0.915 5.790 0.208 0.507 18 712092 1715 1983 269 0.988 0.385 0.620 3.120 0.271 0.644 19 712101 1702 1983 282 0.996 0.318 0.476 3.490 0.271 0.459 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 712102 1706 1983 278 0.994 0.275 0.482 3.405 0.252 0.354 21 712111 1748 1983 236 0.981 0.442 1.293 5.330 0.295 0.663 22 712121 1730 1983 254 0.987 0.355 0.760 3.839 0.273 0.549 23 712122 1698 1983 286 0.994 0.320 0.079 2.895 0.254 0.565 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 197 0.994 0.302 0.467 3.855 0.255 0.422 STANDARD DEVIATION 59 0.005 0.049 0.318 1.082 0.038 0.147 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 207 0.995 0.307 0.350 3.490 0.254 0.427 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 87 0.005 0.064 0.401 1.071 0.048 0.195 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.981 0.242 0.079 2.687 0.208 0.132 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 158 0.992 0.262 0.235 3.156 0.224 0.350 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 245 0.997 0.327 0.636 4.228 0.272 0.545 MAXIMUM VALUE 286 0.999 0.442 1.293 7.258 0.356 0.663 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.254 0.153 0.010 0.147 3.119 -0.158 0.706 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.158 SERIES 712041 AND 712092 262 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.706 SERIES 712051 AND 712052 160 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 10. 21. 66. 91. 136. 171. 210. 231. 231. RBAR 0.148 0.283 0.371 0.394 0.386 0.388 0.317 0.251 0.192 SDEV 0.253 0.218 0.195 0.196 0.226 0.214 0.216 0.200 0.274 SERR 0.080 0.048 0.024 0.021 0.019 0.016 0.015 0.013 0.018 EPS 0.553 0.809 0.893 0.916 0.923 0.930 0.913 0.883 0.840 NSS 7.1 10.7 14.1 16.8 19.2 21.1 22.6 22.6 22.1 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1698 1983 286 0.982 0.187 0.335 3.262 0.194 0.188 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.293 0.135 0.110 78 208 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.62 1.00 1.12 1.74 9.46 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.187 0.126 0.132 0.115 0.078 0.081 0.085 0.067 0.148 0.050 PACF 0.187 0.094 0.097 0.070 0.028 0.038 0.043 0.023 0.113 -0.018 95% C.L. 0.118 0.122 0.124 0.126 0.128 0.128 0.129 0.130 0.130 0.133 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.058 0.160 0.078 0.099 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.118 0.057 0.132 0.064 0.105 0.036 0.080 0.063 0.121 0.053 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.118 2 0.113 0.044 3 0.108 0.030 0.122 4 0.104 0.029 0.118 0.035 5 0.101 0.019 0.116 0.026 0.087 6 0.101 0.019 0.116 0.026 0.087 -0.003 7 0.101 0.014 0.115 0.019 0.086 -0.010 0.062 8 0.099 0.014 0.112 0.018 0.083 -0.010 0.059 0.024 9 0.097 0.008 0.113 0.010 0.081 -0.021 0.058 0.014 0.102 10 0.097 0.008 0.113 0.010 0.081 -0.021 0.057 0.014 0.101 0.004 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2232.35 2230.32 2231.76 2229.47 2231.13 2230.98 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2232.97 2233.88 2235.71 2234.73 2236.73 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.118 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.40 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.42 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.118 0.014 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 712011 1 0.057 0.133 2 712012 1 0.090 0.229 3 712021 1 0.051 0.201 4 712022 1 0.061 0.219 5 712031 1 0.223 0.451 6 712032 1 0.177 0.415 7 712041 1 0.337 0.553 8 712042 1 0.321 0.546 9 712051 1 0.142 0.346 10 712052 1 0.163 0.363 11 712061 1 0.110 0.293 12 712062 1 0.233 0.428 13 712071 1 0.292 0.515 14 712072 1 0.142 0.371 15 712081 1 0.137 0.368 16 712082 1 0.430 0.631 17 712091 1 0.273 0.521 18 712092 1 0.455 0.649 19 712101 1 0.227 0.459 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 712102 1 0.160 0.354 21 712111 1 0.456 0.665 22 712121 1 0.326 0.550 23 712122 1 0.352 0.566 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.227 0.427 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.127 0.149 MEDIAN 1 0.223 0.428 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.184 0.198 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.051 0.133 LOWER HINGE 1 0.139 0.350 UPPER HINGE 1 0.324 0.548 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.456 0.665 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 712011 1811 1983 173 1.000 0.329 0.561 3.993 0.376 -0.026 2 712012 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.318 0.253 3.490 0.366 -0.046 3 712021 1824 1983 160 1.000 0.250 0.096 4.299 0.284 -0.021 4 712022 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.272 0.685 5.168 0.290 0.026 5 712031 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.231 0.105 3.062 0.273 -0.071 6 712032 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.224 0.173 2.977 0.260 -0.032 7 712041 1722 1983 262 1.000 0.275 0.392 3.119 0.318 -0.125 8 712042 1773 1983 211 1.000 0.265 0.792 5.292 0.292 -0.098 9 712051 1761 1983 223 1.000 0.306 0.508 4.045 0.346 -0.055 10 712052 1772 1931 160 1.000 0.288 0.823 5.167 0.314 -0.068 11 712061 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.231 0.368 4.967 0.253 -0.051 12 712062 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.232 0.527 4.363 0.251 -0.105 13 712071 1883 1983 101 1.000 0.243 -0.319 4.796 0.280 0.075 14 712072 1889 1983 95 1.000 0.229 0.321 3.761 0.266 -0.030 15 712081 1861 1983 123 1.000 0.246 0.212 3.352 0.286 -0.010 16 712082 1864 1983 120 1.000 0.238 0.932 4.825 0.273 -0.109 17 712091 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.227 0.511 4.112 0.262 -0.042 18 712092 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.292 0.542 3.650 0.350 -0.154 19 712101 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.282 0.318 3.337 0.336 -0.066 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 712102 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.257 0.291 3.218 0.303 -0.070 21 712111 1748 1983 236 1.000 0.329 1.053 5.520 0.359 -0.104 22 712121 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.296 0.550 3.212 0.344 -0.101 23 712122 1698 1983 286 1.000 0.264 0.068 3.053 0.318 -0.122 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 197 1.000 0.266 0.424 4.034 0.304 -0.061 STANDARD DEVIATION 59 0.000 0.034 0.313 0.834 0.039 0.052 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 207 1.000 0.264 0.392 3.993 0.292 -0.066 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 87 0.000 0.055 0.323 1.534 0.067 0.071 MINIMUM VALUE 95 1.000 0.224 -0.319 2.977 0.251 -0.154 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 158 1.000 0.235 0.232 3.277 0.273 -0.102 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 245 1.000 0.290 0.555 4.811 0.340 -0.031 MAXIMUM VALUE 286 1.000 0.329 1.053 5.520 0.376 0.075 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.362 0.131 0.008 0.073 2.931 0.024 0.726 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.024 SERIES 712052 AND 712071 49 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.726 SERIES 712051 AND 712052 160 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 10. 21. 66. 91. 136. 171. 210. 231. 231. RBAR 0.355 0.445 0.455 0.451 0.494 0.468 0.412 0.327 0.311 SDEV 0.193 0.167 0.168 0.169 0.171 0.209 0.195 0.138 0.180 SERR 0.061 0.036 0.021 0.018 0.015 0.016 0.013 0.009 0.012 EPS 0.797 0.896 0.922 0.932 0.949 0.949 0.940 0.917 0.909 NSS 7.1 10.7 14.1 16.8 19.2 21.1 22.6 22.6 22.1 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1698 1983 286 0.991 0.184 0.144 3.103 0.237 -0.276 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.289 0.112 0.080 81 205 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.74 1.00 1.06 1.80 13.85 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.275 0.008 0.028 0.054 -0.022 0.041 0.026 -0.032 0.117 -0.007 PACF -0.275 -0.073 0.011 0.071 0.017 0.045 0.050 -0.014 0.112 0.054 95% C.L. 0.118 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.129 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.081 -0.275 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.020 -0.064 0.050 0.064 0.003 0.049 0.033 0.005 0.124 0.004 PACF -0.020 -0.065 0.048 0.062 0.012 0.055 0.030 0.008 0.124 0.001 95% C.L. 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.122 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.005 -0.020 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1698 1983 286 0.991 0.178 0.331 3.327 0.193 0.092 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.092 -0.046 0.052 0.071 0.017 0.055 0.042 0.024 0.125 0.009 PACF 0.092 -0.055 0.063 0.058 0.011 0.057 0.026 0.019 0.120 -0.022 95% C.L. 0.118 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.123 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.011 0.092 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.19 MINUTES