RUN: WAWY001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: WA084E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: WA084E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 693 1 Mt. Angeles WIDTH_EARLY PSME - 693 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 1360 4758-12326 1750 19 693 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 693022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1820 1825 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 693052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1820 1822 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 693011 1778 1983 206 1.100 0.318 0.022 2.708 0.161 0.769 2 693012 1780 1983 204 1.102 0.372 0.139 2.255 0.167 0.819 3 693021 1793 1983 191 0.893 0.458 0.805 3.405 0.211 0.849 4 693022 1750 1983 234 0.678 0.463 0.999 3.985 0.224 0.897 5 693031 1790 1983 194 1.032 0.588 1.003 3.232 0.161 0.930 6 693032 1761 1983 223 0.998 0.463 0.968 3.081 0.180 0.876 7 693041 1767 1983 217 0.946 0.626 0.848 3.072 0.189 0.934 8 693042 1753 1983 231 0.874 0.673 1.694 4.979 0.172 0.956 9 693051 1790 1983 194 1.020 0.509 0.887 3.133 0.186 0.899 10 693052 1789 1983 195 0.898 0.394 0.488 2.401 0.183 0.853 11 693061 1760 1983 224 1.104 0.670 1.055 3.775 0.151 0.934 12 693062 1772 1983 212 1.062 0.651 1.072 3.298 0.161 0.932 13 693071 1817 1983 167 1.168 0.358 0.893 3.670 0.143 0.816 14 693072 1785 1983 199 0.981 0.271 0.478 3.181 0.145 0.797 15 693081 1797 1983 187 1.115 0.424 1.081 5.306 0.192 0.826 16 693082 1828 1983 156 1.149 0.608 0.519 2.710 0.180 0.911 17 693091 1759 1983 225 1.004 0.582 1.627 5.391 0.151 0.925 18 693092 1770 1983 214 1.161 0.415 0.835 3.840 0.133 0.872 19 693101 1781 1983 203 0.939 0.299 0.753 3.790 0.145 0.829 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 693102 1797 1983 187 0.851 0.457 0.860 3.161 0.142 0.915 21 693111 1847 1983 137 1.534 0.487 0.445 2.903 0.156 0.806 22 693112 1828 1983 156 1.245 0.543 1.029 3.985 0.171 0.878 23 693121 1865 1983 119 1.745 0.384 0.120 3.121 0.128 0.716 24 693122 1858 1983 126 1.519 0.284 0.089 2.614 0.134 0.609 25 693131 1754 1983 230 0.992 0.690 0.916 3.296 0.233 0.933 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 25 FROM 1750 TO 1983 234 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 193 1.084 0.479 0.785 3.452 0.168 0.859 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.232 0.130 0.424 0.814 0.028 0.080 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 199 1.032 0.463 0.860 3.232 0.161 0.876 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.202 0.203 0.515 0.718 0.039 0.106 MINIMUM VALUE 119 0.678 0.271 0.022 2.255 0.128 0.609 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 187 0.946 0.384 0.488 3.072 0.145 0.819 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 217 1.149 0.588 1.003 3.790 0.183 0.925 MAXIMUM VALUE 231 1.745 0.690 1.694 5.391 0.233 0.956 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.504 0.235 0.014 -0.927 3.771 -0.329 0.903 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.329 SERIES 693021 AND 693122 126 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.903 SERIES 693042 AND 693091 225 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 171. 231. 276. 300. 300. RBAR 0.519 0.359 0.342 0.415 0.523 0.374 SDEV 0.337 0.284 0.254 0.226 0.313 0.215 SERR 0.038 0.022 0.017 0.014 0.018 0.012 EPS 0.953 0.923 0.925 0.946 0.965 0.937 NSS 18.7 21.4 23.7 24.9 25.0 25.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1750 1983 234 1.160 0.507 1.084 3.741 0.122 0.930 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.454 0.127 0.261 107 127 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.41 1.01 1.10 1.51 44.43 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 199. 30. 119. 187. 217. 234. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.926 0.895 0.879 0.859 0.836 0.814 0.787 0.756 0.756 0.750 PACF 0.926 0.262 0.188 0.061 0.006 -0.004 -0.051 -0.070 0.174 0.092 95% C.L. 0.131 0.215 0.272 0.317 0.354 0.386 0.415 0.439 0.461 0.482 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.905 0.657 0.101 0.209 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 693011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00113330 1.21729624 2 693012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00368105 1.47926879 3 693021 1 0.07992973 0.01067579 0.00000000 0.85859966 4 693022 1 1.44639468 0.01464049 0.00000000 0.26825964 5 693031 1 2.05730820 0.01814327 0.00000000 0.46958703 6 693032 1 1.64567232 0.00685293 0.00000000 0.15738054 7 693041 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 693042 1 2.51678610 0.02242702 0.00000000 0.39669314 9 693051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00466522 1.47475564 10 693052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00425905 1.31074059 11 693061 1 2.71001744 0.05602071 0.00000000 0.89432555 12 693062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00541668 1.63838637 13 693071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00318311 1.43582428 14 693072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00198887 1.18014312 15 693081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00365811 1.45851481 16 693082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01124438 2.03133750 17 693091 1 2.25880980 0.02469803 0.00000000 0.60457736 18 693092 1 1.36173129 0.03315113 0.00000000 0.97235590 19 693101 1 0.78392750 0.00910020 0.00000000 0.58348179 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 693102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00688250 1.49770403 21 693111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01015537 2.23466182 22 693112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00788206 1.86374187 23 693121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00494694 2.04211068 24 693122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00092310 1.57718861 25 693131 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 693011 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.283 0.015 2.900 0.161 0.752 2 693012 1780 1983 204 0.999 0.272 -0.129 3.000 0.166 0.704 3 693021 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.520 0.904 3.635 0.210 0.848 4 693022 1750 1983 234 0.999 0.507 1.152 5.496 0.224 0.857 5 693031 1790 1983 194 1.003 0.313 0.933 3.891 0.160 0.765 6 693032 1761 1983 223 1.002 0.268 0.325 3.047 0.180 0.653 7 693041 1767 1983 217 1.002 0.255 0.036 3.584 0.189 0.583 8 693042 1753 1983 231 1.004 0.321 0.411 3.638 0.170 0.782 9 693051 1790 1983 194 0.991 0.413 1.369 5.304 0.185 0.861 10 693052 1789 1983 195 0.997 0.331 0.117 2.107 0.183 0.758 11 693061 1760 1983 224 1.000 0.476 0.284 2.135 0.151 0.925 12 693062 1772 1983 212 0.986 0.430 0.437 2.622 0.161 0.901 13 693071 1817 1983 167 0.998 0.262 0.725 3.965 0.142 0.755 14 693072 1785 1983 199 0.999 0.247 0.421 3.103 0.144 0.749 15 693081 1797 1983 187 0.999 0.335 1.095 5.353 0.191 0.753 16 693082 1828 1983 156 1.027 0.397 1.368 6.023 0.179 0.822 17 693091 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.244 0.131 3.804 0.151 0.681 18 693092 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.257 -0.127 3.110 0.132 0.797 19 693101 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.239 0.085 3.366 0.144 0.728 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 693102 1797 1983 187 1.025 0.333 1.155 5.231 0.141 0.808 21 693111 1847 1983 137 1.000 0.181 0.764 4.861 0.155 0.359 22 693112 1828 1983 156 0.997 0.295 0.680 4.358 0.170 0.687 23 693121 1865 1983 119 0.999 0.206 0.926 3.915 0.127 0.672 24 693122 1858 1983 126 1.000 0.186 0.147 2.619 0.133 0.600 25 693131 1754 1983 230 0.998 0.399 1.116 5.654 0.232 0.764 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 193 1.001 0.319 0.574 3.869 0.167 0.743 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.008 0.095 0.481 1.137 0.028 0.117 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 199 1.000 0.295 0.437 3.638 0.161 0.755 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.002 0.142 0.802 1.814 0.039 0.121 MINIMUM VALUE 119 0.986 0.181 -0.129 2.107 0.127 0.359 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 187 0.999 0.255 0.131 3.047 0.144 0.687 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 217 1.000 0.397 0.933 4.861 0.183 0.808 MAXIMUM VALUE 234 1.027 0.520 1.369 6.023 0.232 0.925 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 693011 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 693012 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 693021 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 693022 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 693031 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 693032 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 693041 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 693042 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 693051 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 693052 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 693061 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 693062 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 693071 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 693072 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 693081 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 693082 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 693091 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 693092 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 693101 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 693102 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 693111 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 693112 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 693121 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 693122 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 693131 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 693011 1778 1983 206 0.995 0.263 -0.031 2.917 0.161 0.712 2 693012 1780 1983 204 0.998 0.260 -0.213 2.806 0.166 0.672 3 693021 1793 1983 191 0.972 0.376 0.236 2.782 0.210 0.761 4 693022 1750 1983 234 0.974 0.384 0.151 3.243 0.225 0.780 5 693031 1790 1983 194 0.994 0.235 0.726 3.840 0.160 0.636 6 693032 1761 1983 223 0.997 0.242 0.017 2.737 0.180 0.597 7 693041 1767 1983 217 0.998 0.237 -0.228 3.613 0.189 0.530 8 693042 1753 1983 231 0.996 0.303 0.681 5.356 0.171 0.752 9 693051 1790 1983 194 0.993 0.333 0.653 3.195 0.186 0.773 10 693052 1789 1983 195 0.997 0.316 0.129 2.254 0.183 0.723 11 693061 1760 1983 224 0.995 0.319 0.233 4.391 0.152 0.814 12 693062 1772 1983 212 0.983 0.356 0.415 3.476 0.160 0.838 13 693071 1817 1983 167 0.996 0.212 0.531 3.227 0.142 0.616 14 693072 1785 1983 199 0.995 0.211 0.201 2.944 0.144 0.653 15 693081 1797 1983 187 0.991 0.282 0.875 4.916 0.191 0.647 16 693082 1828 1983 156 0.989 0.290 0.338 2.760 0.178 0.718 17 693091 1759 1983 225 0.997 0.202 0.132 3.772 0.151 0.531 18 693092 1770 1983 214 0.995 0.200 0.125 3.991 0.132 0.668 19 693101 1781 1983 203 0.999 0.234 0.089 3.415 0.144 0.714 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 693102 1797 1983 187 0.994 0.247 0.390 3.405 0.141 0.711 21 693111 1847 1983 137 1.000 0.177 0.649 4.313 0.155 0.334 22 693112 1828 1983 156 0.992 0.252 0.820 5.127 0.169 0.592 23 693121 1865 1983 119 0.997 0.172 0.694 3.611 0.127 0.554 24 693122 1858 1983 126 0.997 0.147 0.093 2.979 0.132 0.362 25 693131 1754 1983 230 0.995 0.374 0.860 4.689 0.232 0.736 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 193 0.993 0.265 0.343 3.590 0.167 0.657 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.007 0.067 0.330 0.818 0.028 0.125 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 199 0.995 0.252 0.236 3.415 0.161 0.672 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.005 0.103 0.527 1.047 0.039 0.139 MINIMUM VALUE 119 0.972 0.147 -0.228 2.254 0.127 0.334 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 187 0.993 0.212 0.125 2.944 0.144 0.597 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 217 0.997 0.316 0.653 3.991 0.183 0.736 MAXIMUM VALUE 234 1.000 0.384 0.875 5.356 0.232 0.838 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.330 0.142 0.008 -0.134 2.987 -0.033 0.756 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.033 SERIES 693032 AND 693062 212 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.756 SERIES 693011 AND 693012 204 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 171. 231. 276. 300. 300. RBAR 0.452 0.446 0.326 0.388 0.332 0.278 SDEV 0.259 0.235 0.246 0.192 0.234 0.242 SERR 0.029 0.018 0.016 0.012 0.014 0.014 EPS 0.939 0.945 0.920 0.940 0.926 0.906 NSS 18.7 21.4 23.7 24.9 25.0 25.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1750 1983 234 0.993 0.162 -0.542 4.063 0.120 0.586 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.190 0.077 0.136 106 128 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.41 1.00 1.04 1.45 23.97 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.583 0.403 0.389 0.261 0.152 0.107 0.094 -0.006 0.074 0.181 PACF 0.583 0.095 0.186 -0.071 -0.050 -0.021 0.038 -0.107 0.170 0.150 95% C.L. 0.131 0.169 0.185 0.199 0.204 0.206 0.207 0.208 0.208 0.208 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.383 0.516 -0.011 0.196 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.585 0.405 0.396 0.244 0.115 0.065 0.071 -0.012 0.054 0.162 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.585 2 0.530 0.095 3 0.511 -0.007 0.193 4 0.533 -0.008 0.249 -0.109 5 0.524 0.011 0.248 -0.068 -0.078 6 0.521 0.009 0.257 -0.067 -0.059 -0.037 7 0.524 0.013 0.262 -0.086 -0.060 -0.075 0.073 8 0.530 0.007 0.258 -0.093 -0.039 -0.074 0.114 -0.079 9 0.542 -0.010 0.269 -0.087 -0.025 -0.113 0.113 -0.159 0.152 10 0.521 0.012 0.253 -0.072 -0.022 -0.101 0.077 -0.158 0.079 0.136 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1869.26 1773.13 1773.01 1766.13 1765.31 1765.87 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1767.56 1768.31 1768.85 1765.37 1763.03 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.533 -0.008 0.249 -0.109 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 38.02 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 161.35 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.533 0.275 0.391 0.229 0.129 0.134 0.085 0.051 0.046 0.0304 0.019 0.016 0.011 0.007 0.006 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.0009 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 693011 4 0.534 0.552 0.143 0.125 -0.031 2 693012 4 0.474 0.577 0.081 0.144 -0.075 3 693021 4 0.597 0.703 0.085 0.127 -0.167 4 693022 4 0.639 0.625 0.086 0.197 -0.068 5 693031 4 0.443 0.634 -0.032 0.228 -0.200 6 693032 4 0.395 0.673 -0.238 0.235 -0.015 7 693041 4 0.290 0.515 0.026 0.068 -0.104 8 693042 4 0.575 0.727 -0.005 0.108 -0.066 9 693051 4 0.636 0.724 -0.054 0.320 -0.187 10 693052 4 0.568 0.679 -0.082 0.297 -0.107 11 693061 4 0.689 0.681 0.062 0.176 -0.059 12 693062 4 0.750 0.680 0.061 0.172 -0.014 13 693071 4 0.418 0.548 0.133 0.094 -0.158 14 693072 4 0.432 0.640 -0.023 0.101 -0.047 15 693081 4 0.466 0.654 -0.026 0.214 -0.260 16 693082 4 0.521 0.746 -0.049 0.083 -0.099 17 693091 4 0.316 0.483 0.042 0.190 -0.133 18 693092 4 0.463 0.574 0.107 0.108 -0.079 19 693101 4 0.518 0.725 -0.070 0.144 -0.084 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 693102 4 0.513 0.773 -0.124 0.096 -0.053 21 693111 4 0.203 0.443 -0.271 0.205 -0.099 22 693112 4 0.396 0.575 -0.110 0.254 -0.022 23 693121 4 0.413 0.455 0.044 0.321 -0.120 24 693122 4 0.184 0.375 -0.097 0.248 -0.031 25 693131 4 0.571 0.612 0.052 0.210 -0.072 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.480 0.615 -0.010 0.179 -0.094 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.139 0.104 0.106 0.074 0.062 MEDIAN 4 0.474 0.634 -0.005 0.176 -0.079 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.158 0.129 0.133 0.119 0.067 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.184 0.375 -0.271 0.068 -0.260 LOWER HINGE 4 0.413 0.552 -0.070 0.108 -0.120 UPPER HINGE 4 0.571 0.681 0.062 0.228 -0.053 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.750 0.773 0.143 0.321 -0.014 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 693011 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.180 -0.083 3.593 0.206 0.001 2 693012 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.189 -0.027 3.347 0.213 -0.006 3 693021 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.239 0.062 3.431 0.266 0.008 4 693022 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.230 0.477 5.640 0.264 -0.007 5 693031 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.175 0.410 3.679 0.195 -0.009 6 693032 1761 1983 223 1.000 0.188 -0.294 3.173 0.216 0.001 7 693041 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.200 -0.256 4.057 0.223 -0.002 8 693042 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.197 0.064 4.257 0.224 0.002 9 693051 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.202 0.543 3.395 0.225 -0.012 10 693052 1789 1983 195 1.000 0.207 0.551 4.841 0.212 -0.014 11 693061 1760 1983 224 1.000 0.178 0.147 6.259 0.189 0.013 12 693062 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.176 -0.317 3.984 0.195 -0.021 13 693071 1817 1983 167 1.000 0.162 0.139 3.638 0.178 -0.015 14 693072 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.159 0.185 2.960 0.180 0.000 15 693081 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.206 0.543 5.222 0.233 -0.023 16 693082 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.201 0.287 3.220 0.229 -0.003 17 693091 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.168 0.023 3.780 0.186 0.008 18 693092 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.146 0.249 3.125 0.164 0.001 19 693101 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.163 0.090 3.377 0.185 -0.004 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 693102 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.172 0.663 4.411 0.177 0.001 21 693111 1847 1983 137 1.000 0.161 0.278 4.734 0.179 -0.018 22 693112 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.195 0.292 5.554 0.212 -0.005 23 693121 1865 1983 119 1.000 0.134 0.193 3.623 0.145 -0.025 24 693122 1858 1983 126 1.000 0.133 0.039 3.460 0.151 -0.003 25 693131 1754 1983 230 1.000 0.245 -0.049 3.630 0.275 -0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 193 1.000 0.184 0.168 4.016 0.205 -0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.000 0.029 0.268 0.886 0.034 0.010 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 199 1.000 0.180 0.147 3.638 0.206 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.000 0.038 0.269 1.016 0.044 0.013 MINIMUM VALUE 119 1.000 0.133 -0.317 2.960 0.145 -0.025 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 187 1.000 0.163 0.023 3.395 0.180 -0.012 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 217 1.000 0.201 0.292 4.411 0.224 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 234 1.000 0.245 0.663 6.259 0.275 0.013 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.433 0.086 0.005 0.028 4.494 0.102 0.774 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.102 SERIES 693082 AND 693121 119 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.774 SERIES 693011 AND 693012 204 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 171. 231. 276. 300. 300. RBAR 0.436 0.413 0.423 0.431 0.347 0.420 SDEV 0.145 0.140 0.126 0.118 0.136 0.143 SERR 0.016 0.011 0.008 0.007 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.935 0.938 0.946 0.950 0.930 0.948 NSS 18.7 21.4 23.7 24.9 25.0 25.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1750 1983 234 0.997 0.120 -0.283 3.324 0.145 -0.111 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.194 0.063 0.068 88 146 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.52 1.00 1.07 1.59 17.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.111 -0.074 0.061 0.004 -0.024 -0.058 0.062 -0.178 -0.045 0.171 PACF -0.111 -0.087 0.043 0.010 -0.014 -0.066 0.045 -0.178 -0.074 0.133 95% C.L. 0.131 0.132 0.133 0.134 0.134 0.134 0.134 0.135 0.138 0.139 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.020 -0.111 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.001 0.002 -0.007 -0.010 -0.072 0.023 -0.175 -0.044 0.167 PACF 0.000 -0.001 0.002 -0.007 -0.010 -0.072 0.023 -0.176 -0.044 0.170 95% C.L. 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.132 0.135 0.136 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.000 0.000 -0.002 0.002 -0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1750 1983 234 0.998 0.149 -0.380 3.665 0.111 0.572 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.570 0.376 0.351 0.194 0.079 0.041 0.029 -0.058 0.034 0.159 PACF 0.570 0.076 0.164 -0.116 -0.059 -0.021 0.037 -0.097 0.165 0.156 95% C.L. 0.131 0.168 0.182 0.193 0.196 0.197 0.197 0.197 0.197 0.197 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.332 0.573 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 1.35 MINUTES