RUN: WAWY001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: WY024E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: WY024E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 746 1 Granite Pass, Hunt Mtn. WIDTH_EARLY PCEN - 746 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2820 4447-10752 1508 1983 746 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 746021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1769 1771 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 746131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1915 1915 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 746011 1729 1983 255 0.875 0.266 0.307 4.058 0.177 0.731 2 746012 1728 1983 256 0.867 0.389 0.263 3.783 0.214 0.841 3 746021 1688 1983 296 0.452 0.178 0.766 3.704 0.256 0.691 4 746022 1704 1983 280 0.450 0.172 0.638 3.324 0.238 0.694 5 746031 1709 1983 275 0.448 0.154 0.291 2.589 0.173 0.781 6 746032 1708 1983 276 0.458 0.182 0.567 3.301 0.196 0.808 7 746041 1748 1983 236 0.351 0.166 0.989 3.241 0.230 0.801 8 746042 1699 1983 285 0.514 0.181 0.625 3.041 0.185 0.762 9 746051 1713 1983 271 0.688 0.391 0.744 2.634 0.213 0.899 10 746052 1721 1983 263 0.653 0.423 0.713 2.414 0.237 0.909 11 746061 1833 1983 151 1.228 0.388 0.212 2.428 0.201 0.702 12 746062 1780 1983 204 0.933 0.352 0.592 3.664 0.208 0.774 13 746071 1734 1983 250 0.943 0.284 1.227 5.498 0.171 0.734 14 746072 1719 1983 265 0.839 0.311 1.347 4.940 0.181 0.782 15 746081 1643 1983 341 0.492 0.189 0.692 4.255 0.209 0.750 16 746082 1644 1983 340 0.388 0.198 0.555 2.647 0.225 0.845 17 746091 1736 1983 248 0.668 0.148 0.469 4.552 0.172 0.478 18 746092 1739 1983 245 0.789 0.187 0.178 3.340 0.156 0.667 19 746101 1756 1983 228 0.860 0.255 0.419 3.292 0.171 0.762 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 746102 1763 1983 221 0.978 0.284 -0.415 2.891 0.182 0.719 21 746111 1747 1983 237 0.570 0.232 1.914 9.970 0.191 0.818 22 746112 1737 1983 247 0.666 0.270 0.518 2.829 0.199 0.818 23 746121 1715 1983 269 0.609 0.306 1.943 6.712 0.197 0.823 24 746122 1724 1983 260 0.639 0.382 1.849 6.214 0.216 0.872 25 746131 1542 1919 378 0.516 0.337 0.686 2.704 0.237 0.917 26 746132 1508 1983 476 0.371 0.204 0.777 3.362 0.231 0.888 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1508 TO 1983 476 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 271 0.663 0.263 0.726 3.899 0.203 0.779 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.225 0.087 0.552 1.675 0.026 0.093 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 261 0.646 0.260 0.632 3.332 0.200 0.781 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 35 0.403 0.155 0.357 1.426 0.044 0.109 MINIMUM VALUE 151 0.351 0.148 -0.415 2.414 0.156 0.478 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 245 0.458 0.182 0.419 2.829 0.181 0.731 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 280 0.860 0.337 0.777 4.255 0.225 0.841 MAXIMUM VALUE 476 1.228 0.423 1.943 9.970 0.256 0.917 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.332 0.265 0.015 -0.091 2.539 -0.427 0.917 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.427 SERIES 746061 AND 746082 151 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.917 SERIES 746051 AND 746052 263 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.60 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1585. 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. CORR 1. 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 36. 136. 253. 300. RBAR 0.871 0.821 0.494 0.516 0.200 0.446 0.446 0.501 0.243 0.208 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.554 0.327 0.310 0.232 0.319 0.280 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.226 0.134 0.052 0.020 0.020 0.016 EPS 0.931 0.902 0.722 0.796 0.547 0.882 0.932 0.958 0.887 0.868 NSS 2.0 2.0 2.7 3.7 4.8 9.3 16.9 22.5 24.5 25.0 YEAR 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 325. 325. 300. 300. RBAR 0.329 0.487 0.408 0.364 0.316 SDEV 0.235 0.198 0.222 0.227 0.312 SERR 0.014 0.011 0.012 0.013 0.018 EPS 0.926 0.961 0.947 0.936 0.921 NSS 25.5 26.0 26.0 25.7 25.2 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1508 1983 476 0.591 0.185 0.046 2.817 0.170 0.783 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.438 0.339 0.048 77 399 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.20 1.00 1.03 1.24 2.37 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 262. 35. 151. 245. 280. 476. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.781 0.736 0.692 0.663 0.613 0.616 0.603 0.607 0.566 0.530 PACF 0.781 0.322 0.145 0.104 0.000 0.121 0.080 0.099 -0.042 -0.063 95% C.L. 0.092 0.137 0.167 0.189 0.208 0.223 0.236 0.249 0.261 0.271 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.665 0.465 0.221 0.091 0.112 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 746011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00106444 1.01087570 2 746012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00265367 1.20810568 3 746021 1 0.76510876 0.13206916 0.00000000 0.43452799 4 746022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00045569 0.38618970 5 746031 1 0.35357955 0.00409317 0.00000000 0.23602308 6 746032 1 0.28210604 0.00963822 0.00000000 0.35979319 7 746041 1 0.47266904 0.00717412 0.00000000 0.12409721 8 746042 1 0.59184957 0.00359608 0.00000000 0.14483602 9 746051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00422568 1.26314306 10 746052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00456893 1.25629210 11 746061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00306846 1.46095097 12 746062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00331292 1.27271128 13 746071 1 0.92121625 0.02359351 0.00000000 0.78936374 14 746072 1 0.92422473 0.01323597 0.00000000 0.58536685 15 746081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00101264 0.31842142 16 746082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00038322 0.32242531 17 746091 1 0.22441067 0.01470173 0.00000000 0.60888702 18 746092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00037263 0.74330980 19 746101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00196559 1.08554220 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 746102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00184227 1.18200374 21 746111 1 0.62991369 0.01669391 0.00000000 0.41477132 22 746112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00144163 0.84479511 23 746121 1 1.21517944 0.02868405 0.00000000 0.45390499 24 746122 1 1.40856612 0.02194490 0.00000000 0.39572784 25 746131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00195716 0.88582659 26 746132 1 0.63083255 0.00404809 0.00000000 0.09234422 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 746011 1729 1983 255 0.999 0.294 0.426 4.025 0.176 0.707 2 746012 1728 1983 256 0.987 0.406 0.565 3.925 0.214 0.798 3 746021 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.356 0.404 3.253 0.255 0.629 4 746022 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.373 0.576 2.924 0.238 0.678 5 746031 1709 1983 275 1.000 0.312 0.303 3.042 0.172 0.733 6 746032 1708 1983 276 1.000 0.366 0.581 3.909 0.195 0.775 7 746041 1748 1983 236 1.002 0.335 0.388 2.875 0.229 0.619 8 746042 1699 1983 285 1.000 0.281 0.357 2.864 0.185 0.645 9 746051 1713 1983 271 1.037 0.334 0.485 3.178 0.213 0.647 10 746052 1721 1983 263 1.053 0.442 2.045 11.732 0.238 0.660 11 746061 1833 1983 151 0.998 0.298 0.390 2.604 0.200 0.669 12 746062 1780 1983 204 0.997 0.316 0.452 2.480 0.207 0.680 13 746071 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.201 0.339 3.044 0.170 0.428 14 746072 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.226 0.405 2.913 0.181 0.471 15 746081 1643 1983 341 0.998 0.318 0.140 2.925 0.209 0.657 16 746082 1644 1983 340 1.000 0.491 0.394 2.414 0.225 0.836 17 746091 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.203 0.127 3.584 0.171 0.407 18 746092 1739 1983 245 1.000 0.235 0.137 3.212 0.156 0.655 19 746101 1756 1983 228 0.998 0.256 0.624 3.385 0.171 0.670 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 746102 1763 1983 221 0.998 0.276 -0.103 2.590 0.181 0.682 21 746111 1747 1983 237 1.000 0.275 0.399 3.290 0.190 0.616 22 746112 1737 1983 247 0.998 0.362 0.323 2.674 0.199 0.784 23 746121 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.244 0.381 2.951 0.197 0.493 24 746122 1724 1983 260 1.001 0.269 0.413 3.150 0.215 0.540 25 746131 1542 1919 378 0.968 0.485 1.134 4.649 0.237 0.856 26 746132 1508 1983 476 0.998 0.397 0.599 3.070 0.230 0.748 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 271 1.001 0.321 0.472 3.487 0.202 0.657 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.015 0.079 0.389 1.759 0.026 0.116 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 261 1.000 0.314 0.401 3.057 0.199 0.665 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 35 0.002 0.097 0.226 0.510 0.044 0.114 MINIMUM VALUE 151 0.968 0.201 -0.103 2.414 0.156 0.407 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 245 0.998 0.269 0.339 2.875 0.181 0.619 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 280 1.000 0.366 0.565 3.385 0.225 0.733 MAXIMUM VALUE 476 1.053 0.491 2.045 11.732 0.255 0.856 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 746011 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 746012 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 746021 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 746022 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 746031 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 746032 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 746041 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 746042 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 746051 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 746052 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 746061 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 746062 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 746071 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 746072 -67 177 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 746081 -67 228 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 746082 -67 227 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 746091 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 746092 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 746101 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 746102 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 746111 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 746112 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 746121 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 746122 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 746131 -67 253 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 746132 -67 318 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 746011 1729 1983 255 0.996 0.220 0.348 4.153 0.176 0.499 2 746012 1728 1983 256 0.992 0.271 0.386 4.148 0.213 0.526 3 746021 1688 1983 296 0.995 0.337 0.346 3.178 0.254 0.591 4 746022 1704 1983 280 0.989 0.323 0.405 2.763 0.238 0.587 5 746031 1709 1983 275 0.992 0.259 -0.107 3.146 0.172 0.636 6 746032 1708 1983 276 0.989 0.316 0.348 3.844 0.195 0.712 7 746041 1748 1983 236 0.994 0.286 0.259 3.071 0.228 0.498 8 746042 1699 1983 285 0.995 0.248 0.338 3.069 0.185 0.557 9 746051 1713 1983 271 0.999 0.280 0.079 2.769 0.213 0.585 10 746052 1721 1983 263 0.995 0.326 0.523 3.800 0.238 0.601 11 746061 1833 1983 151 0.997 0.223 0.318 3.354 0.198 0.403 12 746062 1780 1983 204 0.990 0.224 0.270 3.014 0.206 0.379 13 746071 1734 1983 250 0.999 0.194 0.290 2.786 0.170 0.383 14 746072 1719 1983 265 0.999 0.218 0.352 2.878 0.181 0.441 15 746081 1643 1983 341 0.994 0.279 -0.073 3.258 0.209 0.565 16 746082 1644 1983 340 0.966 0.352 0.152 2.736 0.225 0.704 17 746091 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.201 0.122 3.547 0.171 0.390 18 746092 1739 1983 245 0.998 0.222 0.042 3.321 0.156 0.622 19 746101 1756 1983 228 0.998 0.224 0.476 3.938 0.171 0.556 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 746102 1763 1983 221 0.995 0.194 -0.022 3.019 0.181 0.354 21 746111 1747 1983 237 0.998 0.256 0.444 3.580 0.190 0.565 22 746112 1737 1983 247 0.995 0.344 0.342 2.824 0.199 0.748 23 746121 1715 1983 269 0.999 0.218 0.145 2.596 0.196 0.363 24 746122 1724 1983 260 0.998 0.254 0.333 3.125 0.215 0.490 25 746131 1542 1919 378 0.984 0.380 0.447 3.186 0.238 0.684 26 746132 1508 1983 476 0.985 0.338 0.354 2.914 0.230 0.653 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 271 0.994 0.269 0.266 3.231 0.202 0.542 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.007 0.055 0.171 0.446 0.026 0.116 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 261 0.995 0.258 0.335 3.136 0.198 0.561 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 35 0.006 0.101 0.209 0.669 0.044 0.181 MINIMUM VALUE 151 0.966 0.194 -0.107 2.596 0.156 0.354 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 245 0.992 0.222 0.145 2.878 0.181 0.441 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 280 0.998 0.323 0.354 3.547 0.225 0.622 MAXIMUM VALUE 476 1.000 0.380 0.523 4.153 0.254 0.748 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.362 0.126 0.007 0.414 3.534 0.057 0.767 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.057 SERIES 746071 AND 746112 247 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.767 SERIES 746121 AND 746122 260 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.60 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1585. 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. CORR 1. 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 36. 136. 253. 300. RBAR 0.817 0.773 0.525 0.557 0.066 0.395 0.502 0.548 0.257 0.214 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.658 0.353 0.256 0.177 0.268 0.260 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.269 0.144 0.043 0.015 0.017 0.015 EPS 0.900 0.872 0.746 0.821 0.255 0.858 0.944 0.965 0.895 0.872 NSS 2.0 2.0 2.7 3.7 4.8 9.3 16.9 22.5 24.5 25.0 YEAR 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 325. 325. 300. 300. RBAR 0.367 0.493 0.441 0.398 0.384 SDEV 0.226 0.187 0.196 0.207 0.230 SERR 0.013 0.010 0.011 0.012 0.013 EPS 0.937 0.962 0.954 0.944 0.940 NSS 25.5 26.0 26.0 25.7 25.2 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1508 1983 476 0.979 0.211 -0.242 3.314 0.176 0.500 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.106 0.056 0.136 104 372 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.50 1.00 1.05 1.55 15.56 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.95 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.499 0.382 0.285 0.263 0.171 0.175 0.163 0.176 0.113 0.071 PACF 0.499 0.177 0.055 0.087 -0.034 0.058 0.043 0.056 -0.036 -0.043 95% C.L. 0.092 0.112 0.123 0.128 0.132 0.134 0.136 0.138 0.140 0.141 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.274 0.410 0.177 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.305 0.169 0.042 0.062 -0.089 -0.074 -0.058 0.013 -0.016 -0.020 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.305 2 0.280 0.084 3 0.283 0.094 -0.035 4 0.284 0.089 -0.049 0.051 5 0.291 0.083 -0.038 0.088 -0.131 6 0.287 0.085 -0.039 0.090 -0.122 -0.030 7 0.287 0.085 -0.039 0.090 -0.122 -0.030 0.000 8 0.287 0.087 -0.034 0.086 -0.120 -0.033 -0.012 0.042 9 0.288 0.086 -0.034 0.085 -0.119 -0.034 -0.011 0.045 -0.012 10 0.287 0.088 -0.034 0.084 -0.123 -0.031 -0.012 0.048 -0.004 -0.028 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 4005.79 3961.21 3959.83 3961.25 3962.03 3955.83 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3957.40 3959.40 3960.58 3962.51 3964.13 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.280 0.084 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 9.96 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 111.07 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.280 0.162 0.069 0.033 0.015 0.007 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 746011 2 0.256 0.468 0.068 2 746012 2 0.338 0.377 0.286 3 746021 2 0.359 0.570 0.038 4 746022 2 0.365 0.553 0.068 5 746031 2 0.427 0.525 0.178 6 746032 2 0.524 0.614 0.140 7 746041 2 0.259 0.476 0.060 8 746042 2 0.316 0.514 0.079 9 746051 2 0.357 0.506 0.138 10 746052 2 0.391 0.557 0.100 11 746061 2 0.187 0.343 0.151 12 746062 2 0.172 0.311 0.180 13 746071 2 0.162 0.335 0.128 14 746072 2 0.200 0.412 0.069 15 746081 2 0.341 0.473 0.163 16 746082 2 0.538 0.500 0.290 17 746091 2 0.159 0.382 0.034 18 746092 2 0.408 0.599 0.051 19 746101 2 0.357 0.418 0.250 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 746102 2 0.155 0.309 0.127 21 746111 2 0.336 0.511 0.100 22 746112 2 0.582 0.662 0.125 23 746121 2 0.151 0.318 0.130 24 746122 2 0.264 0.406 0.173 25 746131 2 0.517 0.550 0.209 26 746132 2 0.490 0.440 0.327 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.331 0.467 0.141 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.130 0.100 0.080 MEDIAN 2 0.339 0.475 0.129 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.208 0.168 0.109 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.151 0.309 0.034 LOWER HINGE 2 0.200 0.382 0.069 UPPER HINGE 2 0.408 0.550 0.178 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.582 0.662 0.327 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 746011 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.189 0.438 4.153 0.211 -0.003 2 746012 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.221 0.368 4.423 0.240 0.006 3 746021 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.271 0.371 3.121 0.300 -0.002 4 746022 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.259 0.457 2.926 0.284 -0.013 5 746031 1709 1983 275 1.000 0.196 -0.351 5.343 0.215 -0.008 6 746032 1708 1983 276 1.000 0.219 0.534 4.224 0.243 -0.016 7 746041 1748 1983 236 1.000 0.245 0.169 3.235 0.268 -0.008 8 746042 1699 1983 285 1.000 0.205 0.101 3.409 0.231 -0.001 9 746051 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.225 0.085 3.176 0.253 0.001 10 746052 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.255 0.516 4.209 0.277 0.022 11 746061 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.202 0.184 3.124 0.229 0.011 12 746062 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.204 0.279 3.375 0.233 -0.001 13 746071 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.177 0.267 2.976 0.198 -0.001 14 746072 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.195 0.349 3.137 0.216 -0.002 15 746081 1643 1983 341 1.000 0.227 0.209 3.332 0.248 -0.012 16 746082 1644 1983 340 1.000 0.240 0.141 3.800 0.267 0.003 17 746091 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.184 0.087 3.709 0.198 -0.007 18 746092 1739 1983 245 1.000 0.171 -0.321 4.935 0.195 -0.015 19 746101 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.180 0.355 3.590 0.200 0.016 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 746102 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.180 0.010 3.117 0.205 0.017 21 746111 1747 1983 237 1.000 0.209 0.281 3.474 0.239 -0.014 22 746112 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.221 0.241 3.567 0.249 -0.019 23 746121 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.201 0.142 2.683 0.228 -0.007 24 746122 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.218 0.177 2.771 0.253 -0.007 25 746131 1542 1919 378 1.000 0.265 0.145 4.572 0.291 -0.027 26 746132 1508 1983 476 1.000 0.242 0.263 4.014 0.265 -0.017 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 271 1.000 0.215 0.211 3.631 0.240 -0.004 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.000 0.029 0.211 0.677 0.030 0.012 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 261 1.000 0.214 0.225 3.442 0.239 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 35 0.000 0.044 0.214 1.029 0.050 0.015 MINIMUM VALUE 151 1.000 0.171 -0.351 2.683 0.195 -0.027 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 245 1.000 0.195 0.141 3.124 0.215 -0.013 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 280 1.000 0.240 0.355 4.153 0.265 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 476 1.000 0.271 0.534 5.343 0.300 0.022 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.520 0.083 0.005 0.576 4.215 0.321 0.840 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.321 SERIES 746031 AND 746072 265 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.840 SERIES 746021 AND 746022 280 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.60 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1585. 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. CORR 1. 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 36. 136. 253. 300. RBAR 0.769 0.727 0.693 0.719 0.412 0.522 0.611 0.605 0.464 0.401 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.301 0.213 0.119 0.122 0.153 0.168 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.123 0.087 0.020 0.010 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.869 0.842 0.857 0.904 0.772 0.910 0.964 0.972 0.955 0.944 NSS 2.0 2.0 2.7 3.7 4.8 9.3 16.9 22.5 24.5 25.0 YEAR 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 325. 325. 300. 300. RBAR 0.455 0.598 0.577 0.520 0.585 SDEV 0.175 0.116 0.117 0.122 0.115 SERR 0.010 0.006 0.006 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.955 0.975 0.973 0.965 0.973 NSS 25.5 26.0 26.0 25.7 25.2 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1508 1983 476 0.995 0.166 0.014 2.875 0.196 -0.080 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.186 0.080 0.041 123 353 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.34 1.00 1.05 1.39 41.20 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.96 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.079 -0.084 -0.026 0.049 -0.073 0.008 0.006 0.092 -0.005 -0.062 PACF -0.079 -0.091 -0.041 0.036 -0.072 0.002 -0.004 0.088 0.018 -0.052 95% C.L. 0.092 0.092 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.016 -0.087 -0.091 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 0.000 -0.044 0.034 -0.071 0.015 0.008 0.090 -0.001 -0.058 PACF -0.004 0.000 -0.044 0.034 -0.071 0.013 0.011 0.083 0.005 -0.063 95% C.L. 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.093 0.093 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.002 -0.004 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1508 1983 476 0.995 0.173 -0.068 3.000 0.167 0.296 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.295 0.157 0.029 0.039 -0.042 0.018 0.027 0.080 0.005 -0.053 PACF 0.295 0.077 -0.040 0.032 -0.063 0.043 0.027 0.062 -0.039 -0.073 95% C.L. 0.092 0.099 0.101 0.101 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.094 0.273 0.077 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.42 MINUTES